Priority Programme for China's Agenda 21

9-2 ESTABLISHING THE NATIONAL CLIMATE CENTRE FOR CHINA
9-2

Project Scope and Relationship to China's Agenda 21

This project seeks to develop models to evaluate the impact of climate change on China's national economy and environment, and to develop models to predict climate change trends, and to study the impact of human activities and other natural factors on climate. This project is based on programme area 18D - Protection of the Atmosphere in China's Agenda 21. Other programme areas of China's Agenda 21 relevant to this project are 11B, 11C, 14A, 14C, 14E, 14F, 14H, 16C, 17B, 17C, and 18C.

1. Background

Global climate change, caused by the emission of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, is expected to have an extensive and profound impact on global social and economic development. This impact is likely to be both favourable and unfavourable. If this impact was to be predicted accurately, preventive response strategies could be formulated in advance, and societies could thus make the best use of favourable impacts, while avoiding or mitigating unfavourable ones.

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change requests governments to: strengthen studies on climate change and its impact on social and economic development; establish early-warning systems on atmospheric changes and turbulations; and strengthen their capabilities of predicting atmospheric changes and turbulations.

China has in place the basic conditions for setting-up a National Climate Centre to enhance its capabilities of detecting and predicting climate change. These include relevant climate data, especially historical information. China has made significant achievements in research on historical climate change, particularly regarding the East Asian monsoon climate, and the impact of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau on the climate of China and the world as a whole. In addition, the China Meteorological Administration has established good cooperative relations with the meteorological services of many countries, and Chinese meteorologists have been actively involved in international climate-related activities. This suggests strongly that the proposed China National Climate Centre is well poised to work in collaboration with other countries to share experiences and technologies.

These achievements need to be built upon to study the impact of climate change on China, to predict likely scenarios, and to formulate possible response strategies. However, at present China lacks the super computers, qualified personnel, and funds for climate numerical modelling and experimentation. China hopes to overcome these obstacles through extensive international cooperation.

As a significant start, the Chinese Government has already decided to establish the National Climate Centre and has allocated US$ 3 million for this purpose. The Government has also pledged to provide the necessary maintenance cost.

2. Objectives

Long-term Objectives
- To develop capabilities for predicting climate change and short-term climate variabilities, for assessing the impact of climate change, and for providing services to the government in formulating response strategies, so as to promote sustainable economic development and to enhance efficiency.
Immediate Objectives
- To establish a National Climate Centre (NCC) which will include a National Climate Research Laboratory open to both Chinese and foreign experts for cooperative research.
- To contribute to climate-related research in Asia by linking the NCC into the World Meteorological Organization network of regional climate centres and making it the Regional Climate Centre for Asia.
Outputs of these objectives will include reports on climate monitoring, seasonal and annual climate impact assessments, short-term climate predictions, reports on drought and waterlogging in China, and long-term climate prediction research.

3. Activities

3.1 Establish a comprehensive administrative and information system for the National Climate Centre to include:
- Macromanagement of research and operational development;
- Establishment of a Scientific Advisory Committee with world famous climatologists from both at home and abroad;
- Establishment of a climate system data base and a computer network system.
The implementing agencies for this activity will be the State Planning Commission, the State Science and Technology Commission, and the China Meteorological Administration. The project duration of this activity will be 24 months.
3.2 Establish the National Climate Research Laboratory for experts from both China and abroad for cooperative research in:
- Global as well as national climate prediction research of various time scales, and the development of climate models for short range climate predictions;
- Developing global and regional climate prediction models by analysing greenhouse gas emissions and their impact on climate change; conducting modelling research and long-range climate change prediction experiments, and research on trends of anthropogenic climate change in the next century, especially the rate of change and regional distribution;
- Developing assessment models of climate change impacts on agriculture, ecology, and social economy;
- Research on the utilization and protection of climate resources.
  The implementing agencies for this activity will be the State Planning Commission, the State Science and Technology Commission, and the China Meteorological Administration. The project duration of this activity will be 48 months.
3.3 Conduct climate change detection diagnosis, impact assessment, prediction, and consultation so as to provide the necessary climate information to national economic decision-making agencies. This includes:
- Climate change detection and climate diagnostic analysis;
- Global and national climate prediction experiments of short and long time scales;
- Trend of anthropogenic climate changes in the next century, especially predictions of climate change rate and their regional distributions;
- Prediction and assessment of the impact of climate changes on agriculture, ecology, and social economy;
- Services in the exploitation and protection of climate resources;
- Climate consulting services to provide the necessary climatic information to decision makers in the national economic constructions so as to enhance efficiencies;
- Technological guidance to the regional meteorological centres and climate related work at the provincial level.
The implementing agencies will be the State Planning Commission, the State Science and Technology Commission, and the China Meteorological Administration. The project duration of this activity will be 48 months.

4. Inputs

4.1 Chinese Inputs
- Salary for the staff and the update of the facilities, such as microcomputers;
- Support to the research programmes of the National Climate Research Laboratory;
- Cooperative research with foreign experts at the laboratory.
4.2 International Cooperation
- Purchase of some equipment that is necessary for climate prediction research and operations, such as work stations and archiving facilities;
- Support for lectures by and cooperative research with foreign experts at the centre;
- Support for staff training abroad.

5. Benefits

It is expected that when the project is completed, the National Climate Centre will have a high international status and will strengthen national capabilities for climate prediction research, experiment, and operation. The in-depth research of climate change in China will benefit China by enriching our understanding of the global climate change and will contribute to research on global climate change.

Climate change has impacts on the environment and the social economy. The potential cost-effectiveness and the social benefits of enhancing our climate prediction research cannot be accurately predicted at present. However, it is likely to have significant benefits for decision-making for sustainable development as well as planning for preventing and mitigating natural disasters and the management of natural resources.

The National Climate Centre, as a member of the National Climate Centre Network of the World Meteorological Organization, will also be able to provide training and guidance to those involved in national climate change research in Asia.

For more information contact CIESIN User Services:
e-mail: ciesin.info@ciesin.org, Fax: 914-365-8922, Telephone: 914-365-8920

9-2 ESTABLISHING THE NATIONAL CLIMATE CENTRE FOR CHINA 9-2

9-2 ESTABLISHING THE NATIONAL CLIMATE CENTRE FOR CHINA
9-2