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Reproduced with permission, from: Edmonds, J.A., M.A. Wise, and C.N. MacCracken. 1994. Advanced Energy Technologies and Climate Change: An Analysis Using the Global Change Assess ment Model (GCAM). Pacific Northwest Laboratory, Richland, Washington.

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Advanced Energy Technologies and Climate Change: An Analysis Using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM)

J.A. Edmonds
M.A. Wise
C.N. MacCracken

May 1994

SUMMARY

We report results from a "top down" energy-economy model employing "bottom up" assumptions embedded in an integrated assessment framework, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). The analysis shows that from the perspective of long-term energy system d evelopment, differences in results from the "top down" and "bottom up" research communities would appear to be more closely linked to differences in assumptions regarding the economic cost associated with advanced technologies than to differences in modeling approach.

The adoption of assumptions regarding advanced energy technologies were shown to have a profound effect on the future rate of anthropogenic climate change. The cumulative effect of the five sets of advanced energy technologies is to reduce annual emissio ns from fossil fuel use to levels which stabilize atmospheric concentrations below 550 ppmv, the point at which atmospheric concentrations are double those that existed in the middle of the eighteenth century.

While all energy technologies play roles in reducing future fossil fuel carbon dioxide emissions, the introduction of advanced biomass energy production technology plays a particularly important role. If biomass energy can be made available at $2.40/GJ or less in quantities sufficient to make it the core energy supply technology In the middle of the next century, then emissions can be cut dramatically relative to the reference case. The problem of emissions reduction becomes one of technology development and deployment in this case, and not one of fiscal and regulatory intervention.

CONTENTS

I. INTRODUCTION

II. APPROACH

Overview
Energy-Related Emissions
Atmosphere, Climate and Sea Level

III. THE REFERENCE CASE

IV. FIVE ADVANCED ENERGY SUPPLY SCENARIO

Defining Five Advanced Energy Technology Cases
The Effects of Advanced Energy Technologies on Energy Use and Emissions
Comparison to Results of a Traditional "Bottom-up" Analysis
The Value of Advanced Energy Technologies in Stabilizing Future Fossil Fuel CO2
Emissions
Implications for Atmospheric Composition
Implications for Climate Change and Sea Level

V. CONCLUSIONS

VI. REFERENCES.

I. INTRODUCTION

Much has been made of the issue of the cost of reducing future fossil fuel carbon emissions in the past few years. The literature has grown to be enormous. Several reviews (e.g., Grubb et al. 1993) have surveyed the field. Two schools of thought with reg ard to the cost of emissions reductions have developed. One school, referred to as the "top-down" modelers, deals with the aggregate economy using models based on economic principles. In general, but not always, these models begin with the hypothesis th at the energy system is in something close to competitive equilibrium, and that markets are relatively efficient. These models have positive costs associated with reductions of emissions from a reference trajectory. The second school is referred to as the "bottom-up" school of thought. This approach emphasizes engineering-economic calculations, and focuses on the potential for advanced energy technologies to replace existing technologies, with concurrent increases in efficiency and profitability, and emis sions reductions. Emissions reductions costs are generally found to be negative by this school.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the potential for advanced energy technologies such as those proposed by Johansson et al. (1993), to reduce reference case greenhouse gas emissions. The paper further considers the impact of these technologies on th e rate and timing of climate change. This paper documents work undertaken in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Working Group Two (WG2), Energy Supply Mitigation Chapter.

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Acknowledgement

This work, including access to the data and technical assistance, is provided by CIESIN, with funding from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under Contract NAS5-32632 for the Development and Operation of the Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC).

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