Reproduced
with permission, from: Edmonds, J.A., M.A. Wise, and C.N. MacCracken.
1994. Advanced Energy Technologies and Climate Change: An Analysis
Using the Global Change Assess ment Model (GCAM). Pacific Northwest
Laboratory, Richland, Washington.
The biomass resource constraint was developed to be consistent with the estimated population resource base and rising income levels, Edmonds and Reilly (1985). While an enormous supply of energy is available in the form of shale oil. this resource is gene rally quite expensive to produce with current technologies and therefore is not a major factor in the reference scenario. The uranium resource base is assumed to be extended if a breeder reactor technology is adopted.
Energy and fossil fuel carbon emissions closely mirror those developed for IS92a. This is shown in Figure 1 and Figure 2. Figure 3 and Figure 4 show the fuel mix of global energy production and use and the regional distribution of fossil fuel CO2 emissions respectively.
While total energy production and fossil fuel CO2 emissions closely mirror those of IS92a, the scenarios differ in their details. For example, Case 1 uses more conventional gas and less conventional oil than IS92a. Similarly, Case 1 includes more coal use after the year 2025 than in IS92a. Other differences in the fuel mix are less noteworthy.
The geographic distribution of primary energy consumption differs by region. While there is relatively close agreement between Case 1 and IS92a for the OECD region, there is significantly more energy use in Case 1 for China than for IS92a. On the other h and, there is significantly less energy use in Case 1 for other developing nations than in IS92a. Thus, as presently configured, the aggregate measures of energy and CO2 emissions in Case 1 are in good overall agreement with IS92a, but real differences ex ist regarding the details of the case.
In Case 1 the energy system grows from its 1990 level of approximately 340 EJ/year to approximately 1380 EJ/year. Conventional oil and gas production peaks in the year 2035, and declines thereafter. Coal production grows steadily from approximately 95 EJ/ year in 1990 to more than 790 EJ/year in 2095. Both biomass and solar electric(a)technologies show significant growth. By the year 2095 they provide 250 and 173 EJ/year respectively .
The regional distribution of fossil fuel CO2 emissions changes greatly over the period of analysis. OECD regional emissions peak in the year 2050 and decline slightly thereafter. (They rise slightly in IS92a.) Emissions in the former Soviet Union and Eas tern Europe grow, but only slowly after the year 2050. Chinese robust economic growth fuels rapid emissions growth. By the year 2095, the Chinese economy has grown by a factor of more than 50, and it represents half of global fossil fuel carbon emissions in Case 1. (They rise by only half this amount in IS92a.)
Edmonds, J. and Barns, D.W. 1992. "Factors Affecting the Long-term Cost of Global Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions Reductions," International Journal of Global Energy Issues,4(3): 140-166.
Edmonds, J. and Reilly, J. 1985. Global Energy: Assessing the Future, Oxford University Press, New York.
Edmonds. J.A., Reilly, J.M., Gardner, R.H., and Brenkert, A. 1986. Uncertainty in Future Global Energy Use and Fossil Fuel C02 Emissions 1975 to 2075. TR036, DO3/NBB-0081 Dist. Category UC-11, National Technical Information Service, U.S. Department of Commerce. Springfield Virginia 22161.
Grubb. M., J. Edmonds, P. ten Brink, and M. Morrison. 1993. "The Costs of Limiting Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions: A Survey and Analysis," Annual Review of Energy and Environment. 18:397 478.
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 1992. Climate Change 1992: The Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment. J.T. Houghton. B.A. Callander and S.K. Varney (eds.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom.
Johansson T.B., H. Kelly, A.N. Reddy, R.H. Williams, eds. 1993. Renewables for Fuels and Electricity. The United Nations Solar Energy Group for Environment and Development, n.d.
Maier-Reimer, E., and Hasselmann, K. 1987. "Transport and Storage of CO2 in the Ocean: An Inorganic Ocean-Circulation Carbon Cycle Model," Climate Dynamics. 2:63-90.
Shine. K.P., Derwent, R.G., Wuebbles, D.J. and Morcrette. J.-J. 1990. The IPCC Scientific Assessment. (eds. Houghton, J.T., Jenkins, G.J. and Ephraums, J.J.):41-68. Cambridge University Press, London.
Wigley, T.M.L. and S.C.B. Raper. 1987. "Thermal expansion of seawater associated with global warming." Nature. 330:127-131.
Wigley, T.M.L., and S.C.B. Raper. 1992. "Implications for Climate and Sea Level of Revised IPCC Emissions Scenarios." Nature. Vol. 357.
Williams, R.H. 1994a, Biomass Energy Conversion Technologies for Large-scale Power Generation and Transport Fuels Applications. Princeton University, Princeton, NJ.
Williams, R.H. 1994b. Photovoltaic Technologies. Princeton University, Princeton, NJ.
Wisniewski, J. and A.E. Lugo (Eds.). 1992. Natural Sinks of CO2 Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston.
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