CIESIN Home Page SEDAC Home Page MVA Home Page Home

This Information Product is Undergoing Alpha Test

[HOME] [PREVIOUS] [NEXT] [UP] [BOTTOM] [FAQ] [NAV]



Thematic Guide to Integrated Assessment Modeling

Incorporating Political Processes and Negotiation

An integrated assessment is presumably directed at an audience responsible for making decisions about managing the risk of climate change. But nobody, no organization, no government has the authority or power to manage the issue unilaterally: Others' decisions matter. An issue not yet addressed by any integrated assessment project is how to represent the decisions and behavior of important actors other than those to whom the study is addressed.

Of course, any economic modeling incorporated in an integrated assessment represents other actors' decisions, when those actors are numerous, small, and act through markets. But in international negotiations and policy-making, (and indeed, in many instances, in domestic politics) decisions of a small number of large, discrete actors jointly determine outcomes. Most assessment projects represent these other actors' decisions simply by jointly specifying policies adopted by all major actors, e.g., by stipulating that OECD nations all enact a $10 per ton carbon tax, while the rest of the world does nothing. Approaches to model internally the decision-making of other agents are not yet well developed but are of great importance. A minimal approach would be to enrich the specification of other actors' decisions to include sets of plausible outcomes of the international negotiating process, including varying degrees of national implementation of negotiated commitments. Alternatively, one could seek to incorporate models of interactive decision-making and bargaining into integrated assessments. One approach involves embedding integrated assessment models within simulation-gaming exercises, in which teams playing the roles of major agents pursue negotiations, policy and implementation choices, in a simulated world described by the integrated models (Parson 1995a, 1995b).

For most integrated assessments, the consequences of the choices they are intended to inform depend on politics and negotiations; consequently, in these instances it is crucial that politics and negotiations be inside the assessment. But methods to do so are at present crude and little developed. Advancing practice in this area is a high priority for advancing the overall endeavor of integrated assessment.

The next section is Section 4: Selected Projects in Integrated Impact Assessments.


[SEDAC] [PREVIOUS] [NEXT] [TOP]

Sources

Parson, E.A. and K. Fisher-Vanden, Searching for Integrated Assessment: A Preliminary Investigation of Methods, Models, and Projects in the Integrated Assessment of Global Climatic Change. Consortium for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN). University Center, Mich. 1995.

Suggested Citation

Consortium for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN). 1995. Thematic Guide to Integrated Assessment Modeling of Climate Change [online]. University Center, Mich.
CIESIN URL: http://sedac.ciesin.org/mva/iamcc.tg/TGHP.html

Acknowledgement

This work, including access to the data and technical assistance, is provided by CIESIN, with funding from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under Contract NAS5-32632 for the Development and Operation of the Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC).

Data Errors, Corrections and Disclaimer
CIESIN follows procedures designed to ensure that data disseminated via CIESIN Web site are of reasonable quality. If, despite these procedures, users encounter apparent errors in CIESIN data, they should contact CIESIN User Services at 517/797-2727 or via Internet e-mail at CIESIN.Info@ciesin.org. CIESIN will notify the original data provider of these apparent errors or misstatements and will attempt to correct them in the most efficient manner possible. Neither CIESIN nor NASA verifies or guarantees the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of the data provided.


For more information contact CIESIN User Services: e-mail: CIESIN.Info@ciesin.org; Tel: 1-517-797-2727.

Configuration control information:
TGsec3-2-12.htmlpp Version 1.8. Last updated 01/06 1996.