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| An indicator approach to climate change vulnerability in India: Strengths and limitiations |
| Author: Aandahl, Guro
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| Co-Author(s): Robin Leichenko |
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| Institutional Affiliation: CICERO Center for Climate and Environmental Research in Oslo |
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| Panel Title: Measuring Vulnerability and Adaptability: Conceptual and Methodological Challenges (GECHS) |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Vulnerability has emerged as an important cross-cutting theme in impacts assessment of climate change. The development of composite vulnerability indices has become a common method for assessing differential vulnerability, and target policies to the most needed regions and populations. This paper addresses the methodological issues of vulnerability index construction; how to operationalize the vulnerability concept, the issues of selection of indicators, data collection procedure, validity assessment, standardization procedures and weighting. Section 1 of the paper uses the case of an analysis of vulnerability in Indian agriculture to climate change and economic changes, to demonstrate how methodological choices made throughout the index construction process have important consequences for the vulnerability patterns emerging when the index is mapped using GIS. Section 2 discusses the potential power of maps and the limitations and dangers of a purely quantitative indicator approach in vulnerability analysis. The results of the indicator based macro-analysis of vulnerability are then, in section 3, compared with the findings from village level case studies of vulnerability. The conclusion of the paper is that although vulnerability indices can provide broad insights regarding the distribution of vulnerability, it is necessary to go down to the local level to fully understand the factors and processes which contribute to vulnerability, and ground-truth the operationalization of the vulnerability concept. |
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| Air Pollution Affects Human Health in Mega Cities of India |
| Author: Abhiman, Dr. Nagdeve Dewaram
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| Institutional Affiliation: International Institute for Population Sciences |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Air pollution is one of the serious problems faced by the people globally, especially in urban areas of developing countries, which not only experiences a rapid growth of population but also industrialization which is accompanied by growing number of vehicles. The mega cities of India are beset by environmental problems, not the least of which is deteriorating air quality. Rapid population growth, industrialization, urbanization, crowded housing conditions; inadequate civic amenities and solid waste mismanagement in mega cities are adversely affecting the environment. All these in turn lead to an increase in the air pollution levels and have adverse effects on the health of people. What is more concern, the air quality guidelines of World Health Organization (WHO) are regularly being exceeded in Indian mega cities-in some cases, to a great extent. Indian mega cities are among the most air polluted cities in the world and paying heavy health and economic price for it.
The present paper is an attempt to examine effect of automobile emissions on air pollution and its concomitant human health hazards interfaced with case studies of mega cities of India. The data have been analyzed from various censuses of India, transport statistics in India and compendium of environment statistics etc. Conducted an analysis of changes and trends over last fifty years.
The analysis reveals that rapid population growth, increasing urbanization and vehicles of all kinds plays an important role in air pollution of the country. Overall population in mega cities of India is growing much faster. The growth of population in mega cities of India leads to an increase in the air pollution levels. Air quality in particular has suffered the worst and vehicular emissions have been identified as the main culprit. The considerable magnitude of air pollution pulls up the number of people suffering from respiratory diseases and many a times leading to deaths and serious health hazards. The paper concludes with some policy reflections. The policy aimed at overall development should certainly include efforts to control population and air pollution for better health of present and future generation.
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| The socio-economic dimension of assessing vulnerability to extreme climate events |
| Author: Acosta-Michlik, Lilibeth
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| Co-Author(s): Richard J.T. Klein |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) |
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| Panel Title: A New Approach to Assessing Vulnerability to Climate: Results from the Security Diagrams Project |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| The Security Diagrams project aims to better understand the differences of various disciplinary views (i.e. economics, political and behavioral sciences) towards vulnerability to extreme climate events. This part of the project focuses on the assessment of vulnerability using socio-economic indicators. 'Security Diagram' is a useful tool for vulnerability assessment to climate change because it combines the concepts of environmental stress, susceptibility and crisis in a single model. The level of vulnerability of the case study regions in India, Russia and Portugal are mapped on a diagram, with environmental stress on y-axis and socio-economic susceptibility on x-axis. The underlying assumption of the security diagram is that, the higher the level of vulnerability due to the combined impacts of environmental stress and socio-economic susceptibility the higher the probability of a crisis. An index of socio-economic susceptibility is generated from selected social (e.g. infant mortality, illiteracy rates, population, etc.) and economic (e.g. GDP per capita, share of agriculture to GDP, irrigated area, etc.) indicators aggregated through fuzzy logic method. The results show that the vulnerability of the region in India is much higher than those in Russia and Portugal due to high susceptibility of its agriculture to drought. The level of socio-economic susceptibility of the region in Portugal has significantly declined, while that in Russia remains relatively stagnant.
Another unique feature of the Security Diagram is the possibility of embedding crisis probability curves on the diagram, which are valuable for understanding the relationship between environmental stress and socio-economic susceptibility, on one hand, and crisis on the other hand. Given time-series data on environmental stress, susceptibility and occurrence of crisis, the probability curves can be estimated using various techniques (e.g. maximum likelihood method, etc.). The power of the probability curves in identifying the likelihood of crisis depends a lot on the availability and reliability of the crisis data. Unlike in other extreme climate events, such data are not well monitored and documented for droughts. Whilst this aspect of the Security Diagram requires further investigation, the project has thus far produced interesting results from comparative assessment of vulnerability among the three case study regions.
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| Economic Growth, energy demand and greenhouse effect gases emissions in Costa Rica: econometric modeling for decision making |
| Author: Adamson-Badilla, Marcos
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| Institutional Affiliation: Center for Economic and Environmental Studies
Director |
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| Panel Title: Regional Cooperation and Climate Change |
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| Paper Link: docs/Adamson.pdf |
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| This paper presents a model to obtain economic scenarios of greenhouse effect gases emissions (GHE); this was prepared to support decision-making and to define actions regarding the compromises of the Government of Costa Rica towards the FCCC.1/
The econometric model designed for eight economic sectors are linked together through energy demand estimations into GHE scenarios to the year 2015 for the economy of Costa Rica. A model of simultaneous equations using SUR technique was estimated and calibrated for the economic sectors. Energy demands were estimated, organized by fossil fuel used by fixed sources by economic sector, resulting in a wide range of econometric models for energy demands. Additionally, dynamic models of fossil fuel used in transportation; of herd cattle raiser, land use change, and renewable sources energy demand.
According to the previous, three economic growth scenarios were estimated - low, medium and high - and also according to changes in the international prices of the crude oil - low, medium and high - with the purpose of projecting GHE for Costa Rica under the above.
The principal results indicate that under the scenery of economic growth of the GDP for the year 2005 Costa Rica will produce GHE among the rank of 14.400 Gg to 17.600 Gg of GHE and to 2015, those levels will set among 20.100 to 37.100 Gg. This indicates an important sensibility of the energy demand to growth of the GDP, which translates into a sensibility of the GHE to the rate of growth of the GDP (1.17%). On the other side, the results show that the energy demands of fossil fuels present highly inelastic price elasticity, which makes scenery of variations of the prices of hydrocarbons insensitive to changes in the GHE. The paper presents the results of the emissions in Gg and CO2 equivalents for sectors, according to the IPCCC method and type of gas and specific policy implication options for the country.
1/Project financed by the Global Environment Facility through the UNEP-UNDP- Costa Rica (Project:COS/95/G31). The results were presented by Costa Rica's Government in the Haya conference of the CMCC.
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| An assessment of historical and contemporary livelihood strategies of the people in changing climate: A case of Nepal Himalaya. |
| Author: Adhikary, Sharad
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| Institutional Affiliation: Sharad P. Adhikary
Himalayan Climate Centre
P. O. Box 10872
Kathmandu, Nepal
Tel: + 977 1 443 4741
Fax: + 977 1 448 2008
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| Panel Title: Fragile Ecosystems |
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| Paper Link: docs/Adhikary.pdf |
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| Nepal is situated in the Central Himalayan Mountain system. The Himalayan range situated meteorologically in the tropics, is world's highest range. This has a tremendous impact on the General circulations of the Atmosphere and as such, seems to control the monsoon behavior in the Indian subcontinent. Furthermore, The Himalayan Region provides a life support base to almost half a billion people (ten times to its own population) in the Indian subcontinent. Agriculture is critically important in this area. Agriculture evolved here on the basis of unique crop-related diversity, and only a few crops from other regions have become acceptable. The shift in ecotones will have a long-term impact within the region as well as downstream plains.
Evidences from the recorded and oral history show different strategies adopted by the local people during the changes in climatic conditions. Such processes had tremendous impact on the utilization of natural resources and further degradation of environment. People also had adopted different strategies of regulating the utilization of natural resources by introducing new rules, regulations, technologies by strengthening local institutions in order to minimize the risk of climate variability in the past. Till now, very little attention was given on such mechanism developed by the local people in Nepal to cope the problem of climate change.
Attempts have been made to assess the magnitude of global warming and its possible impacts at national and global scale. In this paper an attempt is made to assess the processes of the change in climate as perceived by local people in Nepal and their efforts to minimize the risk. While reviewing the evidences of past variability the society's response also analyzed. The present trend, with observations on biological indicators, physical indicators, socio-economic impacts on extreme events, the traditional belief and the local perceptions in terms of adaptation and mitigation will be discussed. |
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| Sustainable Water Management Strategies in Water Stress Areas of Metropolitan Delhi |
| Author: Aggarwal, Surinder
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| Co-Author(s): Rani Sahay |
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| Institutional Affiliation: UNIVERSITY OF DELHI, INDIA |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Water demand in the mega city of Delhi is growing fast without a commensurate supply. This has lead to water scarcity, water stress and water deficit situations in many areas of the city and particularly within the peri-urban zones. The present drinking water deficit is about 2.4 mcm/day, which are about 50% of the total demand. Since surface water supplies are limited and exhausted, ground water abstraction is on the rise and at present contributes almost half of the total water requirements. A steep decline in ground water levels in the southern blocks of the city is observed accompanied with serious ecological, hydrological and health threats. Deeper aquifers rich in nitrate, fluoride, TDS and saline composition also restrict future access to ground water. Future water supply of Delhi depends on the distant water basins located in the neighbouring hilly states. Rising water demands for agriculture and industrial sectors limits the availability of additional water from these states. Water conflicts within Delhi and with the neighbouring states have become a common feature now.
The major objectives of the study remained to (1) measure water stress in the two sampled watersheds, (2) selection of the water harvesting sites and (3) community response and willingness to participate in water harvesting. Standard LISS III FCC was used for land use and soil analysis with the image processing technique. GIS analysis has been carried out to help identify suitable water harvesting sites within the watersheds, keeping in view the physical conditions and the human constraints. To raise ground water level in the identified water sheds check dams, percolation tanks, ground water recharge pits and farm ponds have been proposed. Response from the menfolk to participate in water harvesting was found not encouraging, whereas the women expressed positive response as they are affected most by the water stress. |
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| The protein food transition |
| Author: Aiking, Harry
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| Institutional Affiliation: Institute for Environmental Studies
Vrije Universiteit
De Boelelaan 1087
NL-1081 HV Amsterdam |
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| Panel Title: Industrial Transformation: Taking Stock of Regional Approaches (IHDP IT Session 4) |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| The protein food transition
Harry Aiking (Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit, De Boelelaan 1087, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands)
PROFETAS (Protein Foods, Environment, Technology And Society) is an IHDP-IT endorsed research programme studying the transition of a predominantly meat-eating towards a more vegetarian-oriented western society (Aiking, 2000; Green et al., 1999). Aiming at more sustainable food production and consumption, three areas are studied by a multidisciplinary team of 9 PhD students and 6 postdocs: environmental sustainability, technological feasibility and social desirability. Ultimately, the latter will be decisive for transition. Social desirability depends on stakeholder responses, concerning both 1) willingness to change protein production and consumption (in spite of general conservatism), and 2) willingness to accept indirect effects in other social sectors. These responses can be described as barriers or opportunities.
In all cases, the role of the consumer is crucial. Forcing vegetal Novel Protein Foods (NPFs) down his throat is not an option, but reinforcing present trends by providing some additional incentive is. The food industry will follow or pre-empt consumer taste, as long as money can be earned. The national government will also consider potential effects on GDP, labour market, trade and international relations. The best way to entice this stakeholder into subsidising NPFs may be to show the beneficial effects in those areas. In order to pull the EU into promoting NPFs, a viable approach may be to combine protein crops and biofuel production. The international scene is where the most difficult barriers can be expected. Reduced exports of feed crops and meat will not be appreciated internationally. WTO agreements such as on Trade-Related Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPs) will also be important. A framework of barriers and opportunities will be described by stakeholder and prioritised. The implications of this approach will be discussed.
References
Aiking, H., 2000. The Protein Foods, Environment, Technology and Society Programme (PROFETAS). IHDP Update - Newsletter of the International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change (2), 4-5. Bonn (Germany).
Green, K., Vieira, L., Aiking, H., 1999. Food. In: Vellinga, P., Herb, N. (Eds.), Industrial Transformation Science Plan. IHDP, Bonn (Germany), pp. 26-33.
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| Institutional Dimensions of International Public Forest Policies |
| Author: Albrecht, Joerg
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| Co-Author(s): Andreas Obser |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Deutsche Gesellschaft fuer Technische Zusammenarbeit (GTZ) GmbH
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| Panel Title: Institutional Dimensions of Global Environmental Change: Fit Interplay and Scale |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Multi-level governance has emerged as an important analytical framework and linking strategy in the International Arrangement on Forests (IAF). Focusing on the national forest program (nfp) approach, the paper will analyze the current allocation of forest policy functions across multiple levels of governance, including an increasing number of international arrangements such as the United Nations Forum on Forests (UNFF), the Collaborative Partnership on Forests (CPF), and various global environmental conventions. The growing popularity of decentralization and multi-stakeholder dialogues in many countries including Indonesia has further accentuated the shift to a more multi-levelled governance logic of nfp's. Thus far, the often ad hoc and incremental process through which forest policy tasks are dispersed across different levels of governance has created a confusing pattern of overlapping responsibilities. The authors, however, argue that nfps could and should serve as transmission belts in multi-level arrangements.
The paper addresses the creation or modification of forest institutions in terms of how they resolve problems of fit, interplay and scale identified as central to institutional effectiveness in the Science Plan of the international project of the International Human Dimensions programme (IHDP) entitled 'Institutional Dimensions of Global Environmental Change' (IDGEC). Drawing lessons from the nfp process in Indonesia, and using theories of public policy as well as international regimes, this paper will describe how decision-making responsibilities in nfp's are allocated in the way that they are. Indicators for assessing the optimality of decision-making patterns as well as strategies for more effectively moving responsibilities and ensuring people's participation in multi-level governance will be addressed. The paper, further, aims to contribute to a better understanding of (a) the relationship between functional and political linkages, (b) the significance of specific types of linkages for the performance of the governance institutions involved, and (c) distinguishing linkages that are generally positive from those that are negative among distinct forest-related governance institutions and the people.
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| Vulnerability to Drought: How Different are the Different Disciplinary Perspectives?- Abstract for the proposed panel: A New Approach to Assessing Vulnerability to Climate: Results from the Security Diagrams Project |
| Author: Alcamo, Joe
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| Co-Author(s): Lilibeth Acosta-Michlik, Alexander Carius, Frank Eierdanz, Richard Klein, Dörthe Krömker, Dennis Tänzler |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel |
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| Panel Title: A New Approach to Assessing Vulnerability to Climate: Results from the Security Diagrams Project |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| This project aims to better understand the differences of different disciplinary views towards vulnerability to extreme climate events. It is thought that a better understanding of these differences could lead to a synthesis of important insights from the different disciplines. In this project we focus on impacts of drought, and divide the concept of vulnerability into three component parts: (i) the 'susceptibility' of society (i.e. the converse of adaptive capacity), which is a function of attributes of society such as it preparedness for disasters, (ii) 'water stress' which is a reflection of nature's pressure on society, and (iii) drought-related societal crises. In theory, combinations of higher susceptibility and higher stress lead to higher vulnerability and more frequent crises. Susceptibility was estimated and compared from three different perspectives -- economics, political science, and behavioral science/environmental psychology. A main challenge was to develop a new methodology for quantifying the mostly qualitative knowledge of these disciplines. This methodology allowed the different perspectives to be compared on an equal basis for different case studies. The methodology consisted of (i) translating qualitative knowledge into verbal statements contained in inference models, (ii) applying fuzzy set theory to quantify the verbal statements, (iii) collecting concurrent 'top-down' statistical data and 'bottom-up' survey data to feed into the models. Data were collected from case study regions in India, Portugal and Russia. The approach was successful in that it produced estimates of susceptibility to drought that could be quantitatively compared. It was found that the different perspectives produced very different estimates of susceptibility. As an example, for the period 1990 to 1995 estimates for the Indian region ranged from 0.55 to 0.8 (on a scale of 0 to 1, where 1 is maximum susceptibility), for the Portuguese region from 0.25 to 0.7, and for the Russian region from 0.3 to 0.8. The range was due only to the different factors, weights, and relationships taken into account by the different disciplinary models. Comparing the different perspectives provided many insights into how the individual disciplines could contribute to a wholistic view of vulnerability. |
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| Scaled Partners: Public-Private Interactions for "Sustainable" Mineral Development |
| Author: Ali, Saleem
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| Institutional Affiliation: University of Vermont |
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| Panel Title: S&T Private-Public Partnerships for Sustainable Development: Toward What End? With What Means? |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Mineral development has traditionally been considered an intractable feature of any long-term development strategy because of its nonrenewable attributes and hence its inherent obsolescence. However, mineral projects may be a catalyst for developing other sectors in the economy, so long as appropriate environmental and social safeguards are in place. This paper will argue that the only viable way to achieve such win-win outcomes in mineral development is through particular kinds of public-private partnerships. The author will build on his experiences of participating in a two-year initiative by the World Business Council on Sustainable Development to evaluate the prospects for implementing sustainable development within the context of mining plans. The key variables that deserve consideration in this regard are the scale of the private entity versus the level of government oversight. The buffer between these two primary variables is civil society or "the third sector." However, the role of civil society in this context has been particularly divisive because of positional entrenchment. Two examples of public-private partnerships in the Canadian and American mining sectors (The Whitehorse Mining Initiative and the Sustainable Minerals Roundtable) are studied through time series analysis with the aim of gleaning lessons on what scale of interaction between the public, private and civil society sectors is most likely to achieve a viable outcome. The paper finds that, contrary to common perception, smaller scale private entities in the mineral sector are less likely to secure viable partnerships with the public sector as well as with civil society. Hence the consolidation of mineral development projects, particularly in areas of less stringent environmental management regimes is suggested. |
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| Introducing the NIDO-KSI initiative |
| Author: Alma, Colette
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| Co-Author(s): Jan Rotmans |
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| Institutional Affiliation: NIDO |
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| Panel Title: The Dutch Knowledge-Network on System Innovations (KSI): Shaping the Sustainability Arena? |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Recently, a new organisation has been established in the Netherlands that will combine research and practice in the field of sustainable development and transitions. Within this organisation, an ambitious research program on transitions and system innovations has been developed with the interdisciplinary researchnetwork KSI. Additionally an equally ambitious program has been formulated to initiate and stimulate system innovations. The NIDO-KSI organisation will become effective in the Netherlands in 2004 and coordinates the cooperation between the researchers from KSI and various practitioners in the 'practice-fields' of energy, mobility, space-use, water and agriculture, related to sustainability. The presentation will elaborate on the set-up of the NIDO/KSI knowledge project, it's aims and ambitions and the practical approach. In addition, the presentation will shed light on the basic concepts underlying the joint program. As such, the notions of transitions and transition management are central to the program. The research on these subjects is based on a set of shared concepts in order to safeguard the coherence between the various research angles. A basic shared concept is that of a transition framework which consists of the multi-stage and multi-level concepts. Another shared concept is that of transition management which will be explained further. As a third concept, the shared notions of co-evolution and non-linear knowledge generation will be addressed. These shared concepts will be presented in very general terms, but will be elaborated and illustrated in the other presentations. |
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| Economic Development, Trade and Environmental Quality:Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis in a Threshold Model |
| Author: Alpay, Savas
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| Institutional Affiliation: Beykent University |
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| Panel Title: Globalization and Environment |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| The impact of economic growth on environment has received an increasing attention in the last part of the previous century. Starting with Grosmann and Krueger (1991),empirical tests of this relationship have been carried out in a specific format: different indicators of environmental degradation have been assumed to be an ad hoc polynomial function of income per capita, and then it has been tested whether there would be a decline in environmental degradation for income levels higher than a
threshold. This search for an inverted-U type relationship between pollution and income, i.e. the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis (EKC), has been at the center of discussion on the interaction between economic growth and environment.
The proposed inverted U-type relationship between environmental degradation and per capita income (EKC hypothesis) has been re-examined in this paper. Previous studies on EKC hypothesis are criticised due to their assumption of the quadratic or cubic specification of pollution with respect to income per capita; it is unclear why the specific reduced-form equation employed in their estimations exists. An important contribution of our study is to overcome this problem by employing the threshold estimation method developed by Hansen (1996, 2000), which can directly
and rigorously test EKC. We have used the panel data from the Global Environmental Monitoring System's (GEMS) tracking of urban
air quality in different cities in the developing and developed world. GEMS data is collected from 42 different countries. Water quality data, especially on rivers, includes a large number of stations in 58 different countries.
We find no evidence for EKC hypothesis between pollution and income; increases in income reduce the load on the environment, but they do not lead to improvement in environmental quality. Most importantly, for the first time in the literature, we take openness to trade as the threshold variable, rather than GDP per capita, and test for an EKC-type behavior. Our results present a weak support for the hypothesis that higher openness lead to improved environmental conditions.
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| Policy, Practice and Land Cover Change: Agricultural development and farming systems dynamics in the transition zone of Ghana |
| Author: Amanor, Kojo Sebastian
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| Co-Author(s): Opoku Pabi |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Institute of African Studies,
University of Ghana,
Legon
Ghana |
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| Panel Title: Adaptation and Environmental Security |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| This paper focuses on farmers adaptive responses to change, land cover use and land cover change, and the institutional and policy frameworks for agricultural development and environmental management. Research focusses on the transition zone in the Brong Ahafo region of Ghana. This is a complex region with a diverse population, diverse environments, and a variety of farming techniques and technologies. It is a major zone of agricultural modernisation and this is reflected in a large number of state farms, commercial farms and a significant uptake of modern technologies by farmers in the vicinity of state farms and agricultural infrastructure development services. With removal of government subsidies use of inputs has declined, and farmers using bush fallowing techniques and hired labour have displaced high input farms. This resilience and dynamism within the small farmer sector is not recognised by dominant development policy frameworks which characterise the small farmer sector as utilising outmoded, inappropriate technology that degrades the environment. Policy frameworks are largely concerned with replacing small farmer technology by new technologies generated by international agricultural research, concerned with intensifying synthetic input applications, utilisation of green manures and agroforestry. Policies are not based on empirical data on existing conditions of farmer adaptations but an argumentative turn rooted in theories of population pressure creating need for new technologies.
The paper documents changes in farming in recent times, and draws upon recent remote sensing data of land cover change in Brong Ahafo between 1984 and 2000. While there is evidence of land cover loss in several areas, in other areas there is a notable land cover gain. The activities of farmers often promote coppicing and root shoots which promotes regeneration of many trees. The paper discusses the underlying rational for change within farming systems, the factors resulting in processes of land cover loss and land cover gain, and the impact of current policy frameworks and institutions on farming systems. A more reflexive policy framework is needed which is more sensitive to change within localities and which seeks to build upon the potentials of existing farmer experience. |
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| Role of natural ecosystems in the environmental regulation of carbon circulation |
| Author: Ananicheva, Maria
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| Co-Author(s): Kim S. Losev |
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| Institutional Affiliation: senior researcher,
Institute of geography, Russian Academy of Sciences |
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| Panel Title: Biodiversity and Environmental Mitigation |
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| Paper Link: docs/Ananicheva.pdf |
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| The scientific community is concerned with global warming caused by greenhouse effect. However in the past, CO2-concentrations in the atmosphere have changed in a narrow range. It indicates the climate to be always suitable for certain life forms. The terrestrial biota acts as a mechanism stabilizing and forming environments and climate. That is why it is timely to assess contribution of natural ecosystems in Russia to the global process of carbon sink. The paper assesses data on: carbon emission data due to fossil fuel combustion in 1994, calculated values of the carbon emission per capita in Russia in 1999 and assessment of total emission in 2000 as well as its contribution to the global total. Another important source involves the destruction of natural ecosystems by human activity through (for Russia, for example) deforestation, wood fires and soils degradation.
Determination of the global carbon balance can be made by calculating the speed of carbon change in its reservoirs on the basis of the Law of Mass Conservation (Gorshkov, 1995; Makarieva, 2000). There are five main global reservoirs (the result of human activity): fossil fuel, organic and non-organic carbon dissolved in World Ocean, organic carbon in the land surface, and carbon in the atmosphere. The paper assembles reliable values of: rate of change of carbon reserves in all active reservoirs, total emission of terrestrial biota due to land use, and the sink of carbon into surviving terrestrial natural ecosystems. This evidence gives a possibility to define carbon balance of the Russia territory which is a carbon sink region.
The major part of the carbon in Russia is being stored in the following reservoirs: additional increment of wood, in wetlands, and in the soil , the rest is transferred out by rivers into the Ocean. Boreal forests and wetlands play a key role in biochemical cycles, in particular for carbon. However, during the last 10'12 thousand years their area was substantially reduced. Now within the Northern Hemisphere Russia and Canada are the only countries having a wide area of natural ecosystems, which are 'a cold trap for carbon'. |
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| Local Assessments of Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity: Implications for Designing Rational Climate Change Policies in Asia |
| Author: Ancha, Srinivasan
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| Institutional Affiliation: Institute for Global Environmental Strategies |
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| Panel Title: Transition in Environmental Governance in Asia: Policy Implications at Local and Global Levels |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| An in-depth assessment of vulnerability and adaptive capacity is critical for designing the most effective adaptation policy measures to cope with problems such as climate change. Methodologies for assessment of vulnerability and adaptive capacity on a global and national level are fairly well developed and are mainly based on "top-down" scenario-based global climate models. However, the resolution scale of such models is too small and the timescale too long to include local climate variability. Such assessments are usually referred to as the "first generation" assessments in which adaptation is only an after thought with little attention paid to primary stakeholders, local concerns and potentials. Although climate change is a global challenge, most adaptation options and strategies are site-specific and are to be designed and adopted at the local level. The 'second generation' assessments, therefore, consider both impact evaluation and adaptation at local levels as the core of research, but the methodology is still far from perfect. It is also widely felt that simultaneous assessment of vulnerability and adaptive capacity to multiple stresses (e.g., globalization), rather than climate change per se, is a more logical approach to achieve sustainable development.
In this presentation, different methodological approaches for assessment of vulnerability and adaptive capacity will be examined, and an indicator-based multi-criteria, multidisciplinary grassroots approach, which attempts to combine both qualitative insight based on local knowledge and quantitative information based on surveys, will be proposed. The relevance of local knowledge in designing effective adaptation strategies, and prospects for integrating traditional knowledge in climate change mitigation and adaptation policy frameworks will be highlighted. Implications for using such "bottom-up" approaches either alone or in combination with "top-down" assessments for improved climate policy making in Asia will be discussed.
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| Global Regime for Biodiversity as an approach to study local level experiencies. The Mamirauá Case. |
| Author: Aoki Inoue, Cristina Yumie
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| Institutional Affiliation: Department of International Relations, Center for Sustainable Development, University of Brasília |
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| Panel Title: Biodiversity and Environmental Mitigation |
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| Paper Link: docs/Inoue.pdf |
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| The concept of biodiversity international regime is familiar to scholars that study global environmental issues. Their focus is on the interstate relations and processes around the establishment and implementation of the environmental conventions. Conservation biologists, environmental NGOs and agencies tend to focus on experiences implemented in the regional or local levels. However, fewer efforts are made to integrate global, regional and local dimensions.
Mamirauá was a biodiversity conservation and sustainable development project that joined researchers, international NGOs, governmental organs, a bilateral agency, the E.U. and local communities. The results were the creation of a Sustainable Development Reserve and a research institute in a flooded forest area of Brazilian Amazonia. Even though it cannot be considered a response from the Brazilian government to the Convention on Biodiversity-CDB, Mamirauá is 'in tune' with its objectives and with normative and causal beliefs developed transnationally among conservationists.
My aim is to construct a concept of a global biodiversity regime, that encompasses CDB principles, and objectives, but also the other biodiversity related international agreements, non state actors, concepts and methodologies established by NGOs and the IUCN, the transnational and international flows of knowledge and resources towards local projects. The role of networks like epistemic communities (Haas 1992) will also be considered. Such framework allows us to exam the Mamirauá project in a global-local perspective.
The working hypothesis is that local level experiences on biodiversity conservation and sustainable use implemented in several countries and the existence of transnational conservationist networks are interrelated factors, being part of a global biodiversity regime, and that Mamirauá can be placed within such a context. Thus, I try to relate the existence of a transnational "epistemic community" and the Mamirauá initiative.
This framework can demonstrate international and transnational factors acting at the local level, as well as the value of local experiences for the global level. If we could see local initiatives within a global regime for biodiversity, the discussion on the effectiveness of the regime would be more grounded. Policy makers could propose the creation of learning networks to contribute to biodiversity projects worldwide.
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| Perception of Decision Makers about Global Environmental Issues and its gaps between general public in Japan |
| Author: Aoyagi-Usui, Midori
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| Institutional Affiliation: National Institute for Environmental Studies |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: docs/aoyagi.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| In this paper, we compare two survey results, one is decision-makers survey done by author in 1998-1999, and another is public opinion survey done by NIES in December 1997. Those two surveys were planned to compare the perception and opinion between two groups. Respondents of our decision-makers survey are leaders of environmental organizations, officers of Japanese Government, University professors and business people. Total number is 164. This survey was done mainly by mail questionnaire, but some respondents were directly interviewed by author.
Public opinion survey was done by face to face interview by professional interviewers, our sample was 2190, and 1533 effective responses were obtained(response rate was 70%).
We designed our decision-makers survey comparative to our public opinion survey. while we asked decision-makers' own response to our questionnaires, we asked how decision-makers think of public's answers to the same questionnaires. But we have to make note that there is two year differences between two surveys.
First we checked the view of the economic growth versus environmental conservation. In average, 65% of decision makers answered 'Environmental conservation', and 8.6% answered economic growth, and 18% 'cannot choose.' Public's response was 53%, 31%, 17%, respectively. But surprisingly, 55% of decision makers guessed that more public chose economic growth over environment, 41% guessed environment over economic growth. But there are large differences among decision makers' sub-groups, e.g. 70% of business people guessed correctly, while more than 50 to 60 % of environmental groups and government people guessed falsely.
We can say that there is a possibility that decision makers falsely understand people's preferences over economic growth and environmental conservation. Next, we asked decision makers about consistency of environmental policy making. Here consistency means governmental policy making is consistent with people's preferences, or, people's perception of importance for environmental issues are consistent of its environmental policy makers. Most of government people and business people answered consistent, but environmental groups and university professors tended to answer not-consistent. In this paper, we will explore the significance of those gaps, and try to give explanation. |
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| Pure Public Goods Versus Commons: Benefit-Cost Duality |
| Author: Arce, Daniel
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| Co-Author(s): Daniel Arce |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Rhodes College |
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| Panel Title: Institutional Dimensions of Global Environmental Change: Fit Interplay and Scale |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| This paper utilizes benefit-cost duality to differentiate the problems associated with a pure public good from that associated with a commons. For the public good scenario, contributors' benefits are public or available to all, while provision costs impact only the contributor. In a commons, crowding costs are public, while benefits affect only the user. Although both problems possess the same game form for their canonical representations, collective-action implications differ: e.g., the relative positions of the Nash equilibrium and Pareto optimum, the form of the exploitation hypothesis, and the need for selective incentives or punishments. Other essential differences concern policy implications, equity considerations, and strategic aspects (influences on the underlying game). |
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| Ecosystems and People: The Philippine MA Sub-Global Assessment |
| Author: Arche, Richievel
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| Co-Author(s): Rodel D. Lasco, Maria Victoria O. Espaldon |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Environmental Forestry Programme, College of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of the Philippines Los Baños |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: docs/arche.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| The Philippines is one of the approved sub-global assessments under the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA). The MA is an international effort to assess the capacity of ecosystems to support life and human well-being on earth, which was launched by UN Secretary General Kofi Annan in June 2001. The main objectives of the Philippine MA are to (a) assess the country's ecosystems and their services using the MA framework and (b) to contribute to the global MA process. The Laguna Lake Basin is the selected study site because it represents a wide array of ecosystems undergoing rapid transitions due to a multitude of factors, e.g. industrialization, urbanization, population increase in the basin and outside, demands for food and water among others. This paper discusses the methodology used for the Philippine Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. Primarily, the Philippine sub-global assessment methodology consists of multiscale analysis of ecosystem goods and services such as the local scale (food: rice and fish), the basin scale (water resources), and the global scale (ecosystem services: biodiversity and climate change). The paper also presents the interlinkages of these scales, as well as the preliminary results of the assessment.
The result of the Philippine assessment would link the national and the proposed regional SE Asian assessments. Moreover, the results of the study would provide the public and private sector decision-makers with an authoritative synthesis of scientific knowledge concerning the consequences of ecosystem change for human well-being.
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| The Role of Regional and National Institutions in Improving Adaptation to Climate Stress in Southern Africa |
| Author: Archer, Emma
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| Institutional Affiliation: Climate System Analysis Group, University of Cape Town |
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| Panel Title: Vulnerability and Adaptation Research in Southern Africa |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Livelihoods and household food security in the southern African region can be extremely vulnerable to the negative effects of climate stress. Institutions at the national and regional level have a number of roles to play in mitigating these effects. If institutions are able to play such roles successfully, they may be able to help develop responses in populations at risk to reduce vulnerability to climate stress and longer term climate change. Investigation undertaken during the 2002/3 rainy season under regional conditions of elevated disaster risk shows, however, that a number of factors constrain these institutions from optimally acting to develop responses to decrease vulnerability. Factors include regional institutional restructuring, barriers to information flow, and a well documented tendency to develop responses at the 'emergency' timescale, rather than the longer term contingency planning timescale essential for developing successful adaptation strategies.
The identification of such factors forms the basis for participatory dialogue with and amongst these institutions to develop concrete recommendations to improve process and organizational efficiency. Such recommendations should better enable the institutions to fulfill their potential in supporting development of successful adaptation strategies in populations and sectors at risk.
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| Vulnerability to Environmental Health Risks in Developing Countries |
| Author: Arimah, Ben
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| Institutional Affiliation: University of the West Indies, Mona Campus |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Deteriorating environmental conditions in developing countries pose major threats to the health and quality of life of inhabitants in these countries. In developing regions, environmental factors account for 20% of deaths in children under five years. Environmentally-related deaths and illness also account for 21% of the total burden of disease - with the major contributors being inadequate water and sanitation; vector-borne diseases; indoor and urban air pollution; and agro-industrial waste. Similarly, environmental hazards are responsible for the death of 3 million children annually. The foregoing implies an increase in the vulnerability of developing countries to the health risks associated with environmental change.
Among developing countries, marked variations exist in environmental health risks. For instance, environmentally-related deaths and illness account for 30%, 20% and 13% of the total burden of disease in Africa, Asia and Latin America respectively. These variations reflect differences in geography, climate, level of development and policy choices. They are also indicative of the impact of human activities on the environment.
Vulnerability research in developing countries has focused mainly on food security, natural disasters, and climate change. In comparison, the vulnerability of communities to environmental health risks has received little attention. Since vulnerability represents the interface between exposure to risks and the capacity to cope with such risks, it may undermine the entire sustainable development process in developing countries.
Using the indicators developed by the WRI, this study seeks to describe and account for variations in environmental health risks among developing countries. Specifically, answers will be provided to the following questions. What is the nature of environmental health risks in developing countries? How vulnerable are developing countries to environmental health risks, and how does this vary among countries? What factors predispose developing countries to environmental health risks, and what factors increase their coping capacity? How do human and development-related activities account for inter-country differences in environmental health risks? Can good governance and sound environmental policy enhance the capacity of developing countries to cope with vulnerability to environmental health risks? Answers to these questions will improve our understanding of human vulnerability to global environmental change in developing countries. |
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| Enhancing adaptive capacity for managing the projected effects of climate change via local means: Community-based arrangements for collective security in a South African informal settlement |
| Author: Arnall, Alexander
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| Institutional Affiliation: Imperial College Centre for Energy Policy and Technology |
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| Panel Title: Adaptive Capacity: Towards a Useful Theory |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| This study investigates the enhancement of adaptive capacity to managing the projected effects of climate change via local arrangements for collective security in a South African informal settlement. There are four aims: To provide insight into a set of community-based social mechanisms for coping with sudden livelihood adversity; to examine the adequacy of these local arrangements in relation to this adversity; to provide recommendations for public intervention in light of identified inadequacies; and to examine the potential relevance of these specific activities to future climate change adaptation. The results show that local concerns centre upon chronic unemployment and a subsequent inability to attain physical capital. The range of household, community and government-based responses to these threats are dominated by a complex network of inter-household commodity exchanges that operate largely in isolation of external sources of community assistance. However, this informal safety net transfer system tends to exclude certain socially marginalised individuals, particularly under conditions of widespread unemployment when many livelihoods can no longer be ensured solely within the boundaries of the study community. Recommendations for public intervention centre on encouraging distributionally progressive informal mechanisms through public information provision and providing formal alternatives as substitutes for distributionally regressive informal mechanisms. Provision for the unemployed and better management of community-wide threats are highlighted as crucial here. Moreover, it appears that the ability of households to react via informal safety net systems in anticipation of short and long-term future climate change is restricted. This is due to the inherently reactive nature of coping mechanisms and the common sentiment regarding 'moral economy' retraction in South Africa. The contention here is that, by understanding the system through which coping mechanisms operate, it might be possible to alter this system to take into account other priorities that operate over more extensive timeframes for very little relative input. |
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| Assessing the relative efficiency of shrimp trawling: co-management in an offshore fishery in the Upper-Gulf of California, Mexico. |
| Author: Aubert, Hernan
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| Institutional Affiliation: The University of Arizona |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| In this paper I discuss the idea of fishing efficiency in shrimp trawling operations, or Trawling Efficiency (TE), and its implications in terms of sustainable management. I discuss some of the conservationist efforts to ban shrimping activities in the Upper Gulf of California Biosphere Reserve, Mexico and the potential impact of those efforts on communities that are highly dependant on shrimp. I present a practical application for the TE equation to measure and assess the relative efficiency of shrimping in many of the fishing grounds under exploitation within the bio-reserve, and extend its use to determine specific areas that, due to a relatively high trawling efficiency, could be opened to shrimping activities. |
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| The Role of Science in Global Environmental Governance: Precaution, Scientisation or Deliberation |
| Author: Backstrand, Karin
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| Institutional Affiliation: MIT |
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| Panel Title: The Precautionary Principle and Global Environmental Change: Taking Stock and Moving Forward |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| This paper is developed from my postdoctoral research project, which revolves around the role of science and technology in environmental decision-making and global environmental politics, diplomacy and governance. The project examines from empirical and normative perspectives the trade-off between technocratic/scientized and democratic/deliberative decision-making through case studies of environmental issue areas, such as air pollution diplomacy, genetically modified organisms (GMOs) and biodiversity.
In this paper I explore the place of three principal models for science-driven environmental decision-making - precaution, scientization and deliberation. In resolving environmental problems fraught with uncertainty the precautionary principle, the risk management approach and enhanced participation are three strategies for mediating between science and policy. What kind of institutional design or policy approaches can secure a science-policy communication that builds on environmental concerns such as openness, reflexivity and precaution? A central argument is that we need to move towards a constructivist and post-positivist conception of science and environmental risk in order to adequately conceptualize the role of science in environmental governance. In building on the insights from environmental politics, international relations, and science and technology studies, this paper outlines the theoretical and normative issues at stake in the shift towards more hybrid, deliberative and participatory scientific inquiry. The precautionary principle and the 'science-based approach' are two competing procedural rules for multilateral environmental negotiations defined by scientific uncertainty and complexity. The transatlantic rift between a precautionary and science-based approach is heightened in issue-areas such as bio-safety, regulation of genetically modified organism and climate change. I explore how the precautionary principle and the risk management approach inform global environmental decision making by comparing regulation of transboundary air pollution, bio-safety and climate change. At the heart of the contest between precaution versus 'sound science' is the question of what counts a legitimate and authoritative knowledge. At stake are the prospects for a deliberative, participatory, reflexive and even democratic notion of scientific expertise. By drawing upon literatures in science studies, international relations and democratic theory, this paper argues that rethinking scientific knowledge itself is a precondition for reforming the scientific endeavor toward involving multiple stakeholders, as envisioned in the Johannesburg process.
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| Spatial Demography: The experience and future of rendering population data useful for human dimensions research |
| Author: Balk, Deborah
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| Co-Author(s): Uwe Deichmann |
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| Institutional Affiliation: CIESIN, Columbia University |
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| Panel Title: Data on the Human Dimensions of Environmental Change: Lessons from the Past and Future Opportunities |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Ten years ago, a commonly held belief was that over two-thirds of the world?s population lived in coastal areas. Advances over the last decade?through the development of databases like the Gridded Population of the World (GPW) and LandScan?have facilitated much better estimates of coastal population, suggesting that the number may be closer to one-third. Recent improvements to GPW suggest that the downward empirical estimate may need some upward revision, but nowhere approaching the two-thirds mark. Similar oft-cited estimates about the proportion of mountain dwelling populations, urban or high-population density dwellers, and are now being reevaluated in light of continually improving spatial estimates on the distribution of human population. Revisions in these estimates have had implications for human dimensions research outcomes and priorities.
This paper takes stock of how well the need for data on human population have been met in the Human Dimensions and related research communities. We will discuss the two main streams of recent advances in data development?the simple heuristic approach and a modeled one?and the state of the art of each. We will also discuss the associated institutional arrangements, in both instances relying on collaborations between research organizations, census bureaus and national statistical offices, and other international agencies. Shortcoming of each approach will also be discussed, with implications for future directions of human dimensions research. Despite considerable advances, some important challenges remain unmet; these will also be discussed. Lastly, we will discuss the application of these successes to socioeconomic data beyond demographic such as measures of poverty.
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| Climate change policymaking: A comparison of Norway, Germany, and the United States. |
| Author: Bang, Guri
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| Institutional Affiliation: CICERO |
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| Panel Title: Global Politics of Carbon Emissions |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| This paper looks at differences in climate policymaking between Norway, Germany, and the United States in two respects: the policymaking process, that is, what kind of considerations are taken into account when policy is formulated; and policy outcome, that is, the degree to which the policies that are adopted are proactive.
The theoretical assumptions made by three distinct explanatory models are used to understand these differences. First, the Unitary Rational Actor model focuses on national welfare concerns, such as national cost and benefit assessments, and interdependence of the international community. Second, the Domestic Politics model considers the distribution of costs and benefits among domestic actors, and how public demand and support for climate policy interplays with governmental supply of policy (i.e., political system design and institutional interaction). Finally, the Social Learning and Ideas model looks at how both cultural differences between countries and learning-induced changes in perceptions can set the course for the policymaking process.
The results of the analysis show that all three models had rather high explanatory power for the policymaking processes. Two factors in particular had high explanatory power in all three countries: cost-benefit assessments and governmental supply of policy. In terms of predicting policy outcome, the Social Learning and Ideas model was not suited for the purpose, and did best as tool for detailed analysis of the role of culture and norms in molding the policymaking process. The Unitary Rational Actor model was predicting a lower level of proactiveness for all countries than was the actual outcome, hence indicating that the model did not take into account all relevant factors to explain level of proactiveness. The Domestic Politics model predicted policy outcome well. How countries' political systems regulated distribution of power and influence between domestic institutions and actors was identified as a central element for explaining why the countries chose different proactivity in their climate policy.
The research helps explain how these processes and policy outcomes operate in a real-world context, emphasizing the considerations policymakers take into account. It also helps to explain why some countries adopt a more proactive climate change policy stance than others.
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| Settler Welfare and Land Use in the Ecuadorian Amazon |
| Author: Barbieri, Alisson
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| Co-Author(s): Carlos Mena, Christine Erlien, Richard E. Bilsborrow, Bolier Torres |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Department of City and Regional Planning and Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: docs/barbieri.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| Recent studies on the Amazon have focused on deforestation and changes in land use and used data from remote sensing imagery, and, to a lesser extent, household surveys. The focus has been on the environmental degradation of tropical forests rather than the living conditions of the migrant settler families directly responsible for much of the degradation. This paper presents results on settler wealth and incomes in the area of most intensive colonization in the Ecuadorian Amazon.
Following the discovery of petroleum in 1967, oil companies built roads to lay pipelines to extract oil for piping across the Andes for export. The roads opened the region to massive spontaneous in-migration of families from origin areas characterized by lack of land and rural poverty. As a result, settlers cleared forests to establish farms (40-50 ha), where they planted subsistence and cash crops (coffee) and over time acquired cattle, resulting in further forest clearing. A representative probability sample of farms was selected in this area of intense in-migration in 1990 to implement a household survey on land use of colonist families on 408 farm plots. The survey provides information on agricultural production, inputs, assets, earnings from off-farm work, net remittances, etc., which permitted determining levels of income and wealth of all families. This revealed generally low income levels (Murphy et al, 1997), often lower than in places of origin. Factors determining levels of and variations in household income were analyzed as well.
In 1999 a follow-up survey was carried out on all farm households living on the same plots of land visited in 1990, providing longitudinal data. However, many plots had been subdivided in the intervening years, resulting in fragmented plots, further deforestation, increased off-farm employment, and less cattle raising. In this paper we present estimates of household incomes and wealth in 1999, and compare them with 1990, to assess changes in settler family welfare over time, as well as what socioeconomic, demographic, land use, and other factors explain the difference. As far as we are aware, this has not been done before in studies of land use in the tropics. |
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| Diversification of economic portfolios to deal with climate variability: Case study of livelihood strategies in two Andean communities. |
| Author: Barreda, Carolina
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| Co-Author(s): Corinne Valdivia, Roberto Quiroz |
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| Institutional Affiliation: International Potato Center |
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| Panel Title: Rural Livelihoods and Climate Variability: Insights for Adaptation to Longer Term Change |
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| Paper Link: docs/barreda.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| Diversification is considered a mechanism to deal with the effect of climate in the Andean Region. It is also considered a strategy to take advantage of the various types of resources families have access to, and an expression of individual preferences. Diversification is often correlated with low-income levels and low risk. Economic theory suggests that an inverse correlation exist between diversification and income. In rural economies of the developing countries findings appear to differ.
This paper constructs a household typology in two rural communities of Southern Peru, Anccaca and Santa María, in order to determine what relationship is observed between diversification and income levels, which strategies have less coping ability and how this relates to the nature of the portfolio and to diversity. The people of these communities pursue their livelihoods in a setting of climate variability, at and above 3800 m.a.s.l. Both communities have similar social and demographic characteristics differing in amount and type of resources accessed (land, livestoock and infrastructure).
Household production, income, and resource use and access data were elicited through direct interview to 110 families. These samples corresponded to 68% and 87% of the population of Santa María and Anccaca respectively. Recall questions were asked of El Niño 1997-1998 on decisions about planting and area planted, livestock sales, off farm income and availability of food stocks. Variables for cluster analysis, to identify groups with similar household strategies, were defined by peasant household economics, embedding non-market institutions. In Santa María and Anccaca, age of the head of households is a defining factor to differ livelihood strategies. In both communities, the analysis of economic portfolios indicates there are significant differences in diversification. Only in Anccaca community, differences have been founded between groups according to the income levels. Groups with higher diversity do exhibit neither the highest nor the lowest income. The diversity of those pursuing off farm activities is lowest, but also less affected by climate. Implications of land access and use, in terms of policies to improve well being in rural communities are discussed.
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| The Biosecurity Regime and Its implications to the Brazilian Citizens |
| Author: Barros Platiau, Ana Flavia
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| Institutional Affiliation: University of Brasilia |
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| Panel Title: Globalization and Environment |
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| Paper Link: docs/Barros_Platiau.pdf |
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| The biosecurity regime has been developed according to two different international law instruments, raising several doubts about its implications for any given country, and this paper analyzes the Brazilian case. The first one is the Biosecurity Protocol, originated in the environmental international law, and the second one is the WTO regime, which is considered to be the most efficient regulation regime ever.
On the one hand, the Biosecurity Protocol seems to be more legitimate for Brazil, but on the other hand, the WTO is more consolidated as hard law, and it has been treating environmental matters with no mandatory reference to environmental regimes. From this double standing, there is a conflict of norms in the international regulation system, implying that every actor may interpret the development of the biosecurity regime under its specific commercial or environmental interests. Therefore, this paper argues that the implications of this complex development are vital for the Brazilian citizens, because of the legalization of world policies and its direct influence on the national law.
In addition, Brazil is in a dangerous situation, since there is an insurmountable cleavage between the Ministry of Environment and the Ministry of Agriculture concerning biosecurity. Consequently, Brazil does not have a clear position in this international regime and around 10% of the national 2003 soybean harvest is estimated to be genetically modified, but the commercialization of GM crops are not allowed by national laws. In this manner, the first part explains why the international biosecurity regime is so fragile, whereas the WTO is so strong, and the second part assesses the direct impacts of the regime on Brazilian citizens. The points to be developed involve compliance to constitutional rights, such as the right to be informed before consuming; he right to produce and sell GM crops; the right to protect the environment as a common interest and the right to live in a healthy environment.
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| Remote sensing of the direction and sustainability of land use change and water management in the Jordan River basin of Israel |
| Author: Becker, Sarah
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| Co-Author(s): Dele Ogunseitan |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Department of Environmental Analysis and Design, University of California, Irvine |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: docs/becker.pdf |
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| The State of Israel has undergone considerable industrial development since its establishment in 1948. The country has absorbed millions of immigrants, while mitigating potential crises in massive influxes of immigration. However, it is questionable whether the natural resources to support this large population growth have been adequately managed. This research explores Israel's strategic management of land use, and how land use has changed with respect to sustainability of water resources in the Jordan River basin. The focus is to determine if adopted patterns of land use patterns are placating or exacerbating water crisis in the region. The research employs satellite image analysis using the Landsat Thematic Mapper database to quantify changes in land use pattern in the Jordan River basin between 1984 ' 2002. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index is being used to calculate the percent green cover. Image differencing and ratioing is being used to determine the magnitude of change. Aerial photography is used in ground truth verification. Establishing the direction of land use change in Israel should serves as a guide determining the correlation between land uses and sustainable water management. The Environmental Sustainability Index and the Maryland Department of Natural Resources landscape indicators are also being used to determine which land uses promote or degrade water quality. |
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| The Stages of Natural Hazard Mitigation and Preparation |
| Author: Beller-Simms, Nancy
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| Institutional Affiliation: Human Dimensions of Global Change Program, US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/UCAR |
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| Panel Title: Early Warning and Preparedness |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| This study examines mitigation and preparation activities selected by four county and state governments within the United States (San Bernardino County, California; Maricopa County, Arizona; Bernalillo County, New Mexico; and Cameron County, Texas) in anticipation of the 1997-98 El Niño. It expands the knowledge of how federal, state, and local governments plan short-term projects and mitigate with longer-term activities in anticipation of a natural hazard. It also provides a preliminary understanding of why areas receiving the same threat of disaster react and plan differently.
Unique to this study is the methodology. The author interviewed over seventy federal, state, and county officials across a broad spectrum of agencies during and after the 1997-98 El Nino. She also incorporated information from over 1,000 newspaper articles. The study shows significant variation in mitigation and preparation activities for the El Niño event. This was attributed to a number of factors, some include: differences in the areas' economies, backgrounds of planning staff, involvement of highly placed officials, significance of location to the national economy, familiarity with disasters, and physical location of jurisdiction. The resultant model is interdisciplinary in approach. It outlines five stages (forecast, risk identification and interpretation, vulnerability assessment, responsibility and response, and preparation and mitigation) that governments follow in determining their natural hazard mitigation and preparedness activities.
Lessons learned from this study should provide a framework towards study and planning for longer term change.
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| Beyond Regimes: Cities and the Multilevel Governance of Climate Change |
| Author: Betsill, Michele
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| Co-Author(s): Harriet Bulkeley |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Department of Political Science, Colorado State University |
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| Panel Title: Multilevel Environmental Governance |
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| Paper Link: docs/Betsill.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| Within the field of international relations, global environmental governance is typically discussed in terms of international regimes and/or global civil society. Implicit in both approaches is the assumption of a "cascade" of responsibility and authority for addressing global environmental problems, such as climate change. International agreements are taken home to be implemented (or ignored) by national governments, with consequent obligations on the part of local government. Such approaches tend to discount the role of sub-national governments in the governance of global environmental problems. However, there is mounting evidence that local governments are an important site of environmental governance in their own right.
We offer the concept of "multilevel governance" as an alternative for understanding processes of global environmental governance. Authority for governing global environmental issues is increasingly being distributed to supra- and sub-national entities as well as shared between state and non-state actors. Using the case of climate change, we demonstrate that some local governments have developed innovative policies and programs in response to the problem of climate change. Moreover, local governments have organized themselves transnationally, through networks such as the Cities for Climate Protection Programme. However, the effectiveness of these initiatives is often linked to regional and national policies. On the basis of this empirical research, we contend that a conception of global environmental governance focused on competing "spheres of authority" across and at different scales better captures the myriad forces that shape the politics of global climate change than models which suggest the nature of governance is solely hierarchical.
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| Vulnerability of Indian agriculture to climate change and economic globalization |
| Author: Bhadwal, Suruchi
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| Co-Author(s): Karen O'Brien, Robin Liechienko, Ulka Kelkar, Akram Javed, Suruchi Bhadwal, Guro Aandahl, Heather Tompkins, Stephan Barg and Henry Venema |
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| Institutional Affiliation: TERI, New Delhi |
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| Panel Title: Adaptation and Environmental Security |
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| Paper Link: docs/Bhadwal.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| Climate change and economic globalization are two main processes of global change, and it is assumed that they both have major impacts on Indian agriculture. Yet, their combined effects are rarely studied in conjunction. This paper analyzes the 'double exposure' of Indian agriculture to these two processes through a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods.
The paper describes the use of GIS (geographical information systems) to identify areas that are vulnerable to both climate change and economic globalization (defined here as trade liberalization). A district-level base index incorporates indicators of biophysical vulnerability (soil cover and degradation, groundwater exploitation, and flooding) and social vulnerability (occupational status, literacy, infrastructure development, and gender discrimination). This is overlaid with a climate sensitivity index (based on rainfall variability and dryness) to generate a map of vulnerability to climate change. The base index is also overlaid with a trade sensitivity index (based on port distance and cropping pattern) to generate a corresponding map of vulnerability to economic globalization.
The micro-level implications of vulnerability are explored through village-level case studies in Rajasthan and Karnataka. The approach involves a detailed questionnaire survey, group discussions and interviews with villagers, and individualized meetings with village heads and district officials. The paper draws upon the case study findings to highlight how farmers cope with climatic variability, and identifies key economic factors that might enhance or constrain their ability to adapt to climate change.
The paper is based on a collaborative research study involving three CCKN members (TERI, India; CICERO, Norway; and IISD, Canada) which is funded by the Canadian International Development Agency and the Government of Norway.
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| International Regimes and Organisations: Exploring Institution-Organisational Interplay |
| Author: Biermann, Frank
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| Co-Author(s): Steffen Bauer |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Global Governance Project
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
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| Panel Title: Institutional Dimensions of Global Environmental Change: Fit Interplay and Scale |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Most studies on the interplay of international environmental institutions have focused on the inter-linkages and conflicts between different international environmental regimes. Many scholars have analysed, for example, the conflicts and synergies between the biodiversity and climate regime, or between environmental regimes and the world trade regime. On the other hand, the interplay between environmental regimes and international organisations has largely remained outside the focus of students of institutional interplay. Yet this specific form of interplay could be particularly relevant for the success of intergovernmental environmental co-operation, especially with a view to the relationship between international conventions as normative frameworks of general principles, rules, specific standards and decision-making procedures, and the often sizeable convention secretariats as key bureaucratic entities for the implementation and support of these norms. Our paper will an! alyse this interplay between environmental conventions and their secretariats and other intergovernmental environmental organisations. We will present a first research methodology and strategy for assessing and explaining both the effectiveness of convention secretariats and their interplay with the international conventions as norm-setting frameworks. Variables that might affect the effectiveness of this interplay include, for example, the formal competencies of the secretariat; its degree of autonomy from the normative powers of regime institutions, such as the conference of the parties; the internal structure of the secretariat, including size and character of its resources; as well as its particular form of involving key stakeholders in the policy arena. Our paper will also explore the two other key themes of the IDGEC research programme: We will analyse whether problems of fit might impair the effectiveness of environmental secretariats and of their interplay with envir! onmental regimes; and we will look at the problem of scale, here with a particular view to the interplay between global and regional environmental secretariats and other environmental organisations. |
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| Decadal-Scale Dynamics of Land Ownership and Carbon Storage in the Southeastern Lower Coastal Plain Region of the U.S. |
| Author: Binford, Michael
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| Co-Author(s): Gregory Starr, Henry Gholz, Grenville Barnes, Levent Genc, Scot E. Smith, Allison Fleming |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Department of Geography & Land Use and Environmental Change Institute (LUECI), University of Florida |
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| Panel Title: Nutrient Cycles and Climate Change |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Ecosystem processes vary continuously across the landscape, as do the biophysical and social factors that influence them, yet many human activities are often determined spatially by property boundaries and governmental units that define discrete areas and allow identification of the agents of land-cover change. Matching ecosystem patterns measured both as discrete land-cover classes and as continuous variables with discrete human organization presents an interesting problem. This case study examines forests of the Southeastern U.S. Coastal Plain, which are owned and managed by a wide variety of landowners and leaseholders. We study carbon exchange and storage over 25 years at the landscape level by integrating on-the-ground measurements of biomass accumulation and net ecosystem exchange (NEE), ecosystem modeling, and satellite remote sensing to create several independent estimates of C dynamics within four study areas in north Florida. One study area has been the site of long-term ecosystem measurements, and provides data for developing models. Three different methods: land-cover classification with look-up tables, empirical models relating continuous reflectance data and vegetation indices with biomass and NEE, and ecosystem modeling applied to annual forest age classes are used to estimate C exchange and storage. Landscape-level estimates are then combined with a time series of parcel-level ownership classes (commercial, forest products industry, private, government, mining companies, other) to examine how ownership influences C dynamics. Annual C uptake at the landscape level averages 9000 + 17,000 (s.d.) T yr-1 in a 15 x 15 km landscape, but tree harvests, some land-cover conversion or mining, and occasional fires result in net annual C losses from each study area. Much of the harvest C loss is for manufacturing forest products so contribution to atmospheric CO2 is unknown. Land ownership class does not significantly affect C dynamics because owners usually lease land to others for various purposes, and management practices of individual leaseholders determine C dynamics. Although the continuous representation of ecosystem processes is theoretically and intuitively more attractive, additional research is required to determine definitively whether a discrete or continuous approach generates the most reliable estimates of the relationship between human activities and the carbon cycle. |
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| Poverty and the Global Environmental Change. The Pespective of Transition Countries in Central and Eastern Europe. |
| Author: Bizikova, Livia
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| Co-Author(s): Tatiana Kluvankova-Oravska |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Institute for Forecasting
Slovak Academy of Sciences |
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| Panel Title: Consumption and Environment |
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| Paper Link: docs/Bizikova.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| The countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) undergone unprecedented political and economic changes since the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. Democratisation process brought dynamic changes into the political, economic and social sphere of the CEE countries. Not all of them can be viewed in a positive way only. Economic recession, collapse of state monopolies in early 90's, unemployment, lack of capital, dramatic reduction of social welfare or deepening regional disparities have dramatically accelerated in recent years. Above mentioned negative socio ' economic impacts bring a new phenomena to the CEE countries ' poverty with impact particularly on gender and minority groups and devastation of unique natural areas and environmental conflicts as one of the principal implication. The nature and depth of the poverty varies across CEE, however several similarities can be observed. Consumptive behaviour, institutional weakness, general lack of interest in public matters could be mentioned among major reasons. All these aspects provide evidence of serious troubles transition societies have been facing in order to adapt to new a social relationships and deal with such a complex situation. Understanding regional and topical differences of poverty in CEE, requires an assessment of some of the broader dimensions, going beyond the levels of income and consumption and to address this phenomena in an interdisciplinary context, including economic, social, historical, cultural and environmental dimensions.
The aim of the project is to determine changes in post-communist societies in respect to the poverty as a new multidimensional phenomena in CEE region and its contribution to the environmental devastation by comparative analyses across the regional and gender dimensions. Theoretical hypotheses will be tested on country studies, selecting most vulnerable population groups, e.g. Roma women. Main intention is to illustrate such inequalities and determinants of poverty in the regions, identify critical treats and conflicts with the environment and determine potential solutions by innovative participatory approach techniques based on deliberative and non- discriminatory principles. Participatory mechanisms can also be considered as learning tool helping vulnerable social groups to become aware of their own assumptions and improve their social adaptability to new society conditions. |
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| The Mountain Research Initiative: An Integrated Approach to Address Global Change Issues in Mountain Regions |
| Author: Bjoernsen Gurung, Astrid
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| Co-Author(s): Mel Reasoner, Harald Bugmann |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Mountain Research Initiative (MRI)
Bärenplatz 2
3011 Berne, Switzerland |
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| Panel Title: Fragile Ecosystems |
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| Paper Link: docs/Bjornsen_Gurung.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| Global Change in Mountain Regions ' The functioning of many fragile mountain systems is threatened today by an array of anthropogenic changes, ranging from land use and land cover changes, acidic deposition, increased atmospheric CO2 concentration to climatic changes. Consequently, many mountain systems are moving along trajectories that couple high rates of environmental change with strong economic changes, whose collective effect may significantly change the ability of mountain regions to support current and future livelihoods of mountain people and nearby lowland communities.
Opportunities for Global Change Research ' The strong altitudinal gradients in
mountain regions provide excellent opportunities to detect and analyse global change processes and phenomena. As the higher parts of many mountain ranges are often not affected by direct human activities, they provide locations where the environmental impacts of climate change can be studied. Related to the changing environmental conditions along mountain slopes, changes also occur in socio-economic conditions that again influence land use and land-management practices, water resources, rates of erosion, magnitude of floods, biodiversity, and resource exploitation with potential implications for agriculture, food security, and mountain tourism.
The Need for an Integrated Research ' While there are a number of significant ongoing efforts that focus on monitoring of environmental changes in mountain regions, process studies, modelling efforts and socio-economic research on the future trajectories of livelihoods in mountains, these research activities could profit from coordination. Specifically, the development of sustainable management strategies for the world's mountain regions will require a concerted, well-coordinated research effort that involves local people and recognizes the complementarities between local knowledge and scientific investigation. In conjunction with UNESCO MAB, the Mountain Research Initiative (MRI) seeks an integrative research approach across disciplines, environment and development issues, and the natural and social sciences. Such an approach allows the definition of consequences of these changes for mountain people as well as lowland inhabitants dependent on mountain resources. Further, such an integrated approach facilitates the development of sustainable resource management regimes for mountain regions.
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| Global Warming and the U.S. Media: Dissecting Biased Coverage in Journalism |
| Author: Boykoff, Maxwell
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| Co-Author(s): Jules Boykoff |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Environmental Studies department
University of California, Santa Cruz
U.S.A |
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| Panel Title: National Perceptions of Climate Change |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Despite findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that anthropogenic activities have had a 'discernable' influence on the global climate, significant and concerted international action has not yet been taken to curb practices that contribute to global warming. In other words, policy discourse and action has significantly diverged from these scientific assertions, which contain a remarkably high level of consensus. This paper demonstrates that the U.S. prestige press ' the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Los Angeles Times, and the Wall Street Journal ' has contributed in significant ways to failed discursive translations between these communities through consistent adherence to journalistic norms and values. This failure is an accumulation of tactical media responses and practices guided by these widely accepted standards. Through content analysis of U.S. prestige press coverage of global warming from 1988 through 2002, I focus on one such value ' balanced reporting ' and show how the prestige press's adherence to the norm of balanced reporting actually leads to biased coverage. Furthermore, this paper investigates differences in reporting on global warming between science writers and other journalists, as well as differences regarding news article placement. I then briefly link these micro-level behaviors to macro-level influences through an exploration of links between reporting on global climate change to economic norms and pressures. The conclusions show the pivotal role of media representational practices and the influence of the media in the construction and maintenance of U.S. global climate change policy vis à vis the international scientific community. Analyses of key actors ' such as the media ' that influence human dimensions of global environmental change are crucial in order to effectively assess past accomplishments, challenges, and approaches, and to strengthen foundations for successful future interdisciplinary research endeavors. |
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| Incorporating cross-scalar dynamics into environmental impact assessment |
| Author: Boyle, Michelle
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| Co-Author(s): Hadi Dowlatabadi |
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| Institutional Affiliation: University of British Columbia |
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| Panel Title: Carnegie Mellon Approach to Human Dimensions of Global Change |
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| Paper Link: docs/Boyle.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| Institutions and processes created to address environmental issues at a particular scale are limited in their ability to deal with global change. They are ill-equipped to evaluate the cumulative and large-scale effects of local level activities, as well suffering from previous experience of impact processes being undermined by shifting baseline conditions. Environmental Assessments (EAs) in the Arctic face an extreme version of these challenges. A feasible solution must provide tools to measure cumulative and emergent effects, yet do so within the existing assessment process and legislative framework.
We propose to develop a set of heuristics to estimate cumulative and cross-scalar effects based on the concept of a project as a catalyst or attractor to follow-on development. The strength of attractors varies by project type and its interaction with other proximate projects and developments over time. By studying past projects and subsequent developments we can create a taxonomy of different catalyst projects and their attractor power. Historical information will also be used to calibrate a model of development patterns: how distance, clustering, congestion/saturation, competition, population, etc. lead to differences in character and timeline of development following a catalyst project. These insights will be incorporated into the EA process through a vector of multipliers (specifying uncertainty ranges where appropriate) that modify the various significant impacts of a project and reflect its attractor power through time.
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| Urban sustainability and drivers of climate change: measurements and determinants |
| Author: Braga, Tania
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| Co-Author(s): Fausto Brito |
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| Institutional Affiliation: CEDEPLAR/UFMG
Centro de Desenvolvimento e Planejamento Regional /
Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais) |
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| Panel Title: Urban Dimensions of Climate Change and Public Health |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Cities play a major role on climate change. On the one hand, urban areas concentrate consumption and production activities that are major drivers of climate change. On the other hand, cities can contribute to reduce these same drivers by relaying on more sustainable patterns and by applying focused environmental management programs.
This paper investigates statistically the urban sustainability and its relations with major urban drivers of climate change. The study areas are the urban areas of New York (USA) and Sao Paulo (Brazil), chosen due to the numerous possibilities they present for the analysis and the availability of good quality data at intra-urban level.
The first part of the paper seeks to track progress toward urban sustainability in City of New York and Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area through the construction of the Urban Sustainability Index, which combines measures of ecosystem health, human welfare, institutional capacity and anthropogenic pressure. We use the Index to rank cities, counties and districts.
The second part of the paper analyses the correlations between direct and indirect urban drivers of climate change as air pollution, energy use, consumption levels, land use patterns, income levels and local environmental governance. We use selected variables in the index to measure the drivers. The then investigate the determinants by testing the correlations between the drivers and analyses the results grouping districts by income levels.
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| Regional versus Global Cooperation for Climate Control |
| Author: Bretteville, Camilla
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| Co-Author(s): Jon Hovi, Fredric Menz |
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| Institutional Affiliation: CICERO Center for International Climate and Environmental Research - Oslo |
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| Panel Title: Regional Cooperation and Climate Change |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| This paper considers whether the climate change problem is better dealt with through regional cooperation than through a global treaty. Previous research suggests that, at best, a global treaty will achieve very little. At worst, it will fail to enter into force. No global agreement on climate change will be fully effective without the involvement of the countries that have not yet committed to reduce emission levels under the Kyoto framework. Using a simple dynamic game-theoretic model, we demonstrate that two agreements can sustain a larger number of cooperating parties than a single global treaty, even when the cost of reducing emissions is the same. The model provides upper and lower bounds on the number of parties under each type of regime. It is shown that a regime with two agreements can Pareto dominate a regime based on a single global treaty. Thus, should the Kyoto Protocol not enter into force, cooperation based on regional agreements can be a good alternative. If Kyoto does enter into force, regional cooperation might be an option for future commitment periods. |
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| Positioning Vulnerability within Climate Change Research: Voices from the Farm |
| Author: Brklacich, Mike
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| Institutional Affiliation: Global Environmental Change & Human Security Project,
Department of Geography & Environmental Studies,
Carleton University,
Ottawa, Canada |
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| Panel Title: Measuring Vulnerability and Adaptability: Conceptual and Methodological Challenges (GECHS) |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Earlier studies into climatic change and farming assumed that climatic change would be a major stress causing widespread agricultural adjustments. This assumption has been questioned and researchers are now positioning climatic change more carefully within the broader context of the myriad of factors which shape farm-level decisions. Recent work in Central Canada illustrates the importance of understanding the full set of stresses confronting farming. Several focus group meetings (FGMs), involving 5 to 8 local producers and convened in early 2003, probed recent changes in regional agriculture and future prospects. Policy and economic factors were usually seen as more important than climatic change. Recently introduced environmental legislation, possible changes in supply management systems, reductions in agricultural services, a continuation of low commodity prices as well as the protrusion of urban influences into the country side were seen as more substantial threats over the short to medium term than was climatic change. Investments in labor saving technologies and improvements in economic efficiency have expanded the set of conditions under which some farms can successfully operate and these investments are expected to diminish most of the potential negative consequences associated with climatic change. However the capacity of farms throughout the region to adapt to external stresses was not viewed to be uniform and some types of farms will be less able to endure stress. Overall, the FGMs demonstrate the vulnerability Central Canada's farming systems will be influenced by local factors such as access to resources and technology as well as future environmental changes. |
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| Are There Any Natural Resources? |
| Author: Brown, Peter G.
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| Institutional Affiliation: McGill University |
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| Panel Title: Regulations and Environmental Change |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Local and regional environments have for many centuries been seen as, or as being composed of, "natural resources." These in turn have generally been considered fully available for human use, irrespective of any use to which any other species, purposefully or not, might put them. The global environment has more recently, though less routinely, been seen in this way. Access to these natural resources has never for long gone uncontested, but their very existence has rarely, if ever, been questioned. I question it now. I consider three widely credited arguments for seeing our natural environment in exclusively human-use terms. I find each of these arguments -- the Judeo-Christian-Muslim, the rationalist or Aristotelian-Cartesian, and the utilitarian or neoclassical-economic -- unsatisfactory, leading me to doubt the validity of any natural-resource view. I then consider, recommend, and draw the implications of an alternative perspective, one based on Albert Schweitzer's much-admired but seldom-adopted "reverence for life" ethic. |
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| Global Environmental Change and Caribbean Food Systems |
| Author: Brown, David
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| Institutional Affiliation: NERC Centre for Ecology and Hydrology |
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| Panel Title: Global Environmental Change and Coastal Areas: A Microcosm of Coupled Human-Environment Systems |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| The GECAFS Goal is "to determine strategies to cope with the impacts of Global Environmental Change (GEC) on food provision systems and to analyse the environmental and socioeconomic consequences of adaptation". GECAFS aims to help to strengthen policy formulation for reducing vulnerability to global change at national to sub-continental scales; and to provide tools and analyses to undertake assessments of trade-offs between food provision and environment in the context of global change.
GECAFS research is now starting in the Caribbean. GEC will bring additional complications to many aspects of the Caribbean's food systems, both directly (in terms of impacts on locally-produced commodities) and, even more importantly, indirectly in terms of effects on tourism and export crops. Sources of foreign exchange earnings from export crops and tourism are both highly vulnerable to many aspects of GEC, but of particular concern are potential changes in the frequency, intensity and tracking of tropical storms and hurricanes, and sea-level rise. The are also potential environmental consequences of adapting local food provision systems which may undermine the natural resource base.
The Caribbean comprises many island with a high ratio of coastal zone to overall land area so that economic activities in the coastal zone are of major importance to most island economy's. Options for maintaining revenue, and reducing as far as possible the reliance on imported foods, will depend largely on maintaining the integrity of the coastal zone, and the GECASF project offers a new, interdisciplinary approach to improve planning and decision making to this end.
The paper will provide a general introduction to the GECAFS project and will detail some of the research issues of particular relevance to the region's coastal zones. Being a Joint Project of IHDP, IGBP & WCRP, GECAFS provides an innovative forum for bringing together IHDP and IGBP work presented in the Special Panel.
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| Settlers of Noman's land. Vulnerabilities of an urbanized village. The case of Bengare in Mangalore, Coastal Karnataha, India. |
| Author: Budhya, Gururaja
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| Institutional Affiliation: Technology Informatics Design Endeavour (TIDE) |
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| Panel Title: The Interactions between Global Environmental Change and Urban Processes (Session 2) |
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| Paper Link: docs/Budhya.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| Settlers of Norman's land. Vulnerabilities of an urbanized village. The case of Bengare in Mangalore, Coastal Karnataha, India.
The process of urbanization in Mangalore has brought a considerable expansion of the city incorporating the surrounding municipalities and rural areas. This paper looks into the vulnerabilities of this urban village in coastal Karnataka, India.
Bengare was a barren land formed out of silt from the river and the sea. The displaced fishermen families of mainland found their way to Bengare about 130 years ago. The residents have been threatened with uncertainties of livelihoods. This case study looks at 'Tota' settlements of Bengare ward. The settlement has drawn the attention of region while fighting industrialization. The area is thickly populated, is facing local environmental problems. The demand on water resources, contamination from the sewage, the intrution from sea water and the attacks of Malaria has been the concern. The untreated sewage and the garbage of Manglore make their way on the settlement before entering the sea. The southern tip of Tota has been lost due to the change in the course of the river. The present landscape is the outcome of the forces of urbanization and consequences of global environmental change.
This paper looks into the processes of urbanization affecting the livelihoods of the Tota-Bengare community. This case study examines the local environmental problems and impact on the community. The paper makes an attempt to understand the vulnerability of the community as a consequences of global environmental change.
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| Where the global meets the local? Sustainable cities and global environmental governance |
| Author: Bulkeley, Harriet
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| Institutional Affiliation: Department of Geography
University of Durham |
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| Panel Title: Sustainable Compact City and its Facilitation |
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| Paper Link: docs/Bulkeley.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| Since the publication of Chapter 28 of Agenda 21, recognition of the importance of the local or, more frequently, urban scale as a means for addressing local and global environmental problems has grown. In the past decade, a growing orthodoxy that cities need to become more sustainable has been promoted by the development of transnational networks, government policy and local initiatives. While the approach varies, attention has primarily been directed to either considerations of how urban form and processes could be redesigned, or to the calculation of resource use and waste production for cities and measures to move these processes on to a more ecological footing. In this orthodox approach, labeled the 'new localism' (Marvin and Guy 1997), there is a tacit assumption that an ideal (physical) model of a sustainable city can be identified and that policy measures towards this end can be unproblematically implemented. Furthermore, despite the assertion that sustainable cities are not self-contained and should contribute to sustainable development at local, regional, national and global levels, the policies proposed to address urban sustainability, such as changes to urban density, frequently remain tied to a bounded idea of the local which does not account for how urban environmental problems are mediated through different spheres of governance.
In this context, the paper examines the implications of the pursuit of 'new localist' visions of urban sustainability for the governance of climate change in the UK. It draws on case-studies conducted in Newcastle, Leicester and Cambridge to examine how the notion of urban sustainability has been conceived and contested in the land-use planning sector. It is argued that while there is some evidence that global environmental issues, such as climate protection, are entering into the rationale of planning, in the main environmental objectives are sidelined for the promotion of business as usual. Far from removing conflict from the urban arena, attempts to pursue sustainable development crystallize the tensions inherent in addressing social, economic and environmental objectives simultaneously, and raise questions about the geographies of urban governance which challenge current approaches to understanding and achieving urban sustainability.
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| The global spread of environmental policy innovations. An analysis and distinction of diffusion processes |
| Author: Busch, Per-Olof
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| Co-Author(s): Helge Joergens |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Global Governance Project
c/o Environmental Policy Research Centre
Freie Universitaet Berlin
Ihnestrasse 22
14195 Berlin
Germanny |
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| Panel Title: Innovation and Technology for Managing Human-Environment Systems |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Recent comparative studies in environmental policy research revealed striking national parallels in the adoption of environmental policy innovations (e.g. institutions, instruments, laws etc.). Most of these traditional comparative studies, however, end with this conclusion. This paper extends the scope of analysis and asks what are the mechanisms driving these consecutive national adoptions of similar or even identical environmental policy innovations. Is it a mere accidental and consecutive reaction of nation-states to similar environmental problems? Or, the underlying assumption of this paper, are their other mechanisms and processes that contribute to and foster the spread of environmental policy innovations? The paper applies the analytical concept of policy diffusion to the spread of twenty-two environmental policy innovations among all OECD member states and a majority of the Central European countries over the last five decades'six instruments are even explored on a global scale. The paper's analytical steps are two-fold. First, it asks whether the factors that triggered and shaped the row of national adoptions can be found exclusively within the national context. Beyond this explanation, the paper finds evidence that national decision-makers oriented their measures instead or additionally at approaches in other nation-states or at models provided and communicated by international actors. Furthermore, other international or global processes (e.g. international negotiations or conferences) had an impact on the national decision to adopt a policy innovation. Second, the paper aims at identifying factors that affect the course of these diffusion processes and that help interpreting their differences (e.g. in the rate and number of adoptions). Its main findings were, that a complex interplay between the distinct characteristics of each innovation, their varying prominence on the international agenda and their adaptability to the particular national administrative and regulatory structures and traditions hindered respectively facilitated diffusion. Finally and based on its main findings, the paper develops an analytical distinction of five diffusion processes or distinct phases within a single diffusion process: 1) diffusion through independent and uncoordi-nated national policy changes, 2) diffusion through emulation, 3) diffusion through anticipation, 4) diffusion through obligation, and 5) diffusion through coercion. |
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| The environment and health among the poor of Dhaka City: the implications of global environmental change for the urban poor of a developing world megacity |
| Author: Caldwell, Bruce
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| Institutional Affiliation: The Autralian National University,
National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health |
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| Panel Title: The Interactions between Global Environmental Change and Urban Processes (Session 1) |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| One of the phenomena of modern times has been a remarkable reduction in the death rate due to a combination of increasing living standards and nutrition, improved preventive health measures including better immunisation, and new and improved treatment including new drugs. The improvements were greatest in the cities, especially in cities in developing countries, due to the concentration of there of national wealth and health services.
This remains true but continuing urban growth is leading to the creation of a large urban under-class in many cities in the developing world whose membership has limited access to urban services and especially to the urban areas' advanced medical facilities. This is particularly true of the inhabitants of the burgeoning informal settlements who often receive few or no urban services and who lack the means to improve their housing environment by improving their housing qualities and acquiring basic amenities. This population already lives in an extremely poor environment for maintaining good health, and will be extremely vulnerably to the impact of global environmental change.
In this paper I will examine the impact of the environment on the health of the urban poor in the city of Dhaka in Bangladesh. The paper draws on data from a survey of 1,800 households in the poorer parts of Dhaka conducted in 2000, and a follow-up qualitative study of selected households in 2001. The study found much higher mortality and morbidity levels among the urban poor, especially those living in the poorest urban environment. It indicated that the combination of extreme poverty and lack of resources meant that the urban poor were extremely vulnerable to the impact of changes in environmental conditions.
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| The Global Carbon Project: Objectives and Implementation |
| Author: Canadell, Josep
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| Institutional Affiliation: Global Carbon Project, International Project Office, CSIRO Land and Water, Canberra, Australia |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| The scientific community is embracing the challenge of monitoring, understanding and managing the evolution of the carbon cycle in the context of the whole earth system with all its multiple human, physical, chemical, and biological components. This demands new scientific approaches and synthesis that cross both disciplinary and geographic boundaries, with particular emphasis on the carbon cycle as an integral part of the human-environment system. Three international global environmental change research programmes have combined to establishe such a project: The International Human Dimensions porgramme (IHDP), the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP), and the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP).
The goal of the GCP is to develop comprehensive, policy-relevant understanding of the global carbon cycle, encompassing its natural and human dimensions and interactions. This will be achieved by explaining:
1. Patterns and Variability: the current geographical and temporal distributions of the major stores and fluxes in the global carbon cycle
2. Processes, controls and interactions: the underlying mechanisms and feedbacks that control the dynamics of the carbon cycle, both natural and anthropogenic and its interactions.
3. Future dynamics of the carbon cycle: the range of management options and plausible trajectories for the dynamics of the carbon cycle into the future.
In this talk I'll provide an overview of the implementation plan and the current and planned activities for the next few years. I'll emphasis the opportunities for collaborative research between the GCP and the various core projects and disciplines under the umbrella of IHDP. In particularly, I'll present current efforts to develop tools, both modeling and conceptual frameworks, to couple the anthropogenic and biophysical components of the carbon cycle. These tools will play a critical role in managing the carbon cycle over the 100 years. |
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| Georgia Basin QUEST: Model Development and Evaluation |
| Author: Carmichael, Jeff
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| Institutional Affiliation: Sustainable Development Research Initiative, University of British Columbia |
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| Panel Title: The Georgia Basin Futures Project: Participatory Integrated Assessment at a Regional Scale |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| The Georgia Basin Futures Project (GBFP) project is an innovative regional scale integrated assessment exercise, which is being undertaken for the purpose of identifying futures that are desirable to the general public in a region, and assessment of appropriate policy approaches to realizing these desired futures. Georgia Basin Quest is an interdisciplinary computer-modelling tool which was developed as a central part of this project. The paper describes how GB-Quest is organized, which integrated assessment principles were central to its design, the modelling techniques employed and the experience of users of the model. It also includes an initial assessment and evaluation of the effectiveness of the model as a decision support tool in use with public groups through participatory methods. The paper suggests that the particular modelling methods used, in combination with the innovative design approach, represents a viable template for future regional integrated assessments. |
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| Population, Agricultural Land Use and the Environment in Latin America at the Turn of the Millennium |
| Author: Carr, David
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| Co-Author(s): Richard Bilsborrow, Alisson Barbieri |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Carolina Population Center,
University of North Carolina |
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| Panel Title: Population and Environment Research: Taking Stock and Looking Forward |
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| Paper Link: doc/Carr_notes.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| This is a review paper on population and environment, focussing on Latin America. It will review theoretical approaches and empirical studies, identify gaps in knowledge, and suggest new directions for research. The focus will be on land resources, that is, the linkages between demographic processes and land, soils and forests.
We first review theoretical aspects of the relationships between trends in population, land use, and agriculture in Latin America from the 1960s to the new millennium. Rapid population growth and redistribution through migration, agricultural expansion, and forest clearing have occurred throughout the developing world during the second half of the twentieth century, especially in Latin America. The population of the region tripled to 519 million by 2000 (UN, 2001) and became 75 percent urban, while the region experienced the fastest increase in agricultural land area and concomitantly the greatest percentage loss of forest cover of any world region: During the first half of the 1990s, twice as much forest was converted to agriculture as in any other world region: 57,800 km2 per annum (World Bank, 1998). Thus even though fertility and population growth moderated significantly in the latter quarter of the 20th century, rural-rural migration movements and the expansion of the agricultural frontier at the expense of forests in the Amazon and elsewhere continue apace.
The first section of the paper compares the Latin American region to other world regions in population change, fertility, agricultural land area, and forest cover. We then review theoretical approaches to population-land-forest relationships, and discuss the appropriate measures of population to use at the macro and micro levels for empirical research. Recent trends in population, extensification and intensification of agriculture, and forest cover are then indicated at the country level for Latin America, prior to critically examining some recent important empirical studies-what they tell us and what they do not about population-environment linkages. This review illustrates wide variation in relationships and indicates key roles played by macro-economic, institutional and contextual factors. We conclude noting gaps in knowledge and needs for further research, especially at the micro level. |
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| S&T Private-Public Partnerships for Sustainable Development: Toward What End? With What Means? |
| Author: Cash, David
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| Institutional Affiliation: Harvard University, USA |
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| Panel Title: S&T Private-Public Partnerships for Sustainable Development: Toward What End? With What Means? |
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| Paper Link: docs/Cash_s&t.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| Over the last decade, there has been a growing call for creating and sustaining public-private partnerships in addressing sustainable development. The Plan of Implementation developed at the World Summit on Sustainable Development calls for establishing "partnerships between scientific, public and private institutions, and integrating scientists' advice into decision-making bodies..." Despite these calls, there seems to be little scholarly or practical understanding of the conditions under which public-private partnerships make sense, what challenges characterize them, and what institutional structures lead to effective bridging of public and private spheres. This panel will contribute to filling this gap and outline the current understanding of the comparative advantages of public-private partnerships and what makes them effective. To accomplish this, we present a range of topics (including tropical agro-forestry, mineral mining, climate forecasting, and environmentally sensitive petroleum production) from a variety of regions (Africa, SE Asia, North America, and South America). The questions that drive the work presented in this panel include: 1) under what conditions and for what problems are public-private partnerships useful; 2) what kinds of institutions support interactions (providing appropriate rules, regulations, incentives, etc.) between public and private actors? and 3) how can partnerships be structured to meet both private goals (profit maximization, protection of intellectual property, expanding markets, acquiring new S&T, etc.), and public goods (environmental protection, commons problems, knowledge production, protection of indigenous knowledge and cultures, etc.)? With these foci our panel will both take stock (present analyses of what has characterized public-partnerships in the last decade) and moving forward (propose hypotheses of how public-private partnerships can best be harnessed to advance sustainable development). |
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| The Interaction of Science and International Environmental Affairs: Institutional Dimensions |
| Author: Cash, David
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| Co-Author(s): William Clark, Ronald Mitchell, and Frank Alcock |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Harvard University |
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| Panel Title: Scientific Knowledge, Controversy, and Assessment in Global-Change Regimes |
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| Paper Link: docs/Cash_GEA.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| The recognition that information matters in world affairs raises a number of questions as to when, how, and under what conditions it influences the behavior of policy actors. Despite the vast and growing array of institutions involved in collecting, analyzing, and disseminating information potentially relevant to global governance generally, and global environmental change specifically, our understanding of the role that these "information institutions" play in world affairs remains limited. Summarizing the work of the Global Environmental Assessment project, a multi-year, multi-institutional analysis, this paper examines how institutions mediate the impact of scientific assessments on global environmental affairs and highlights the pathways through which information has influence on the policy and politics of environmental issues. Based on the synthesis of over 40 case studies on topics including biodiversity, climate change, acid rain, persistent organic pollutants and fisheries management, we identify salience, credibility and legitimacy as the critical attributions that different audiences make about an assessment that determine whether they will change their thoughts, decisions, and behavior in response to it. We also outline how institutional rules regarding participation, framing, and scope and content allow knowledge systems to reach needed thresholds of salience, credibility, and legitimacy and to balance the tradeoffs and tensions among |
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| Do migrants degrade coastal environments? Migration, natural resource extraction and poverty in North Sulawesi, Indonesia |
| Author: Cassels, Susan
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| Co-Author(s): Sara Curran |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Princeton University, Office of Population Research |
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| Panel Title: Population, Poverty and the Environment: Case Studies from Around the World |
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| Paper Link: docs/cassels.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| Recently studies focus on a variety of mediating factors to explain the relationship between migration and the environment, such as technology, local knowledge, social institutions of kinship, and markets. In other words, how migrants relate to the environment through resource extraction depends on the technology and resources at their disposal and the social institutions that would either convey those technologies or limit their use, especially social institutions that organize resource extraction in common pool resource settings, like marine environments. In this study we look specifically at resource extraction from coral reefs and the above mediating factors, specifically modes of incorporation, especially marriage into local kinship, poverty, and resource extraction technologies.
Our study focuses upon migration to the Minahasa district of North Sulawesi, Indonesia- an important but threatened center of tropical marine diversity- and the status of the coral reefs in the area. The Minahasa district has a high proportion of migrants, about 25% of our sample, with the vast majority from the nearby Sangihe-Talaud islands. Poverty levels are high and many are dependent upon the marine environment for their livelihoods, supplemented with subsistence farming activities.
In this analysis of migration and the marine environment, we pose two questions. First, how do villages differ in the quality of their resource base and the composition of the population? Second, given a particular ecological resource base, is household migrant status, differentiated by marriage between migrants and non-migrants, associated with different behaviors relating to resource extraction? To answer the first question we examine the correlation between the demographic, social, and behavioral context and the ecological resource base of fishing villages in North Sulawesi, Indonesia. To answer the second question we examine how a household's migrant status is associated with their resource extraction behavior and poverty level given the quality of the resource base.
We find strong evidence of more migrants in more degraded environments, but we cannot conclude that migration is directly connected with poor environmental quality via destructive fishing behavior. Explanation for these findings are embedded in the social and ecological context of the study site.
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| Market Shocks and Climatic Variability Effects on Small Coffee Growers in Guatemala: A Case Study on Adaptation Strategies in San Pedro La Laguna, Guatemala. |
| Author: Castellanos, Edwin
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| Co-Author(s): Daniela Diamente |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Universidad del Valle de Guatemala |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| The current confluence of environmental, economic, and socio-political stresses on the livelihood of coffee farmers in Mesoamerica provides a unique opportunity to investigate how simultaneous institutional, economic, and climatic shocks can have serious social and environmental implications. This paper is part of a tri-national research effort to develop an initial assessment of how coffee producers in Mexico, Guatemala, and Honduras have been affected by and have responded to recent shocks. The case study for Guatemala presented here corresponds to San Pedro La Laguna, an indigenous town in the tourist region of Atitlán on the highlands of Guatemala. Although NGOs working with local farmers insist that quality is the future of coffee in the Atitlán region, the present reality is that many small farmers are struggling to maintain their coffee fields, while others have abandoned them altogether due to the falling of prices. Deficient economic capital, as well as scarce, limited outside assistance for coffee farmers in San Pedro La Laguna has led to increased migration of unemployed coffee workers, environmental degradation, and the growing incapacity of families to pay for education. Moreover, climatic variability contradicts Mayan traditional agricultural methods; this only increases the vulnerability of these farmers to market shocks. This paper suggests that possibly the greatest and gravest implications of the 'coffee crisis' have yet to be experienced on the highlands of Guatemala. |
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| Economic Waste Management System for Ecological Sanitation in India |
| Author: Chaudhari, Lalitkumar
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| Co-Author(s): A.G.Bhole, A.S.Yevale |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Institute for sustainable development nad research , |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| The Maharashtra state in India have 325 Towns and 33 cities. There are 232 municipal councils including A ,B, and C class , and 12 municipal corporations .These local authorities are looking after the civic administration at town or city level .These towns are now facing the acute solidwaste (from public toilet) problem causing the environmental pollution . The combined effect of this pollution is degradation in the soil , water and air quality , which ultimately affect the civic health in these areas. The
farmers from the periurban areas are bringing their agricultural products including vegetables in the city market .
This creates large amount of the solid waste from vegetables as well as animal excreta specially organic waste which contain more percentage of moisture content. The economic instruments for reduction of solid waste can not be successfully implemented with out pre-existing appropriate standards and effective monitoring and enforcement capacities . Although economic incentives have been viewed as alternative to the traditional approach , they can not be considered as short cuts to the solid waste management. The source reduction , source separation and producer responsibility , these three factors are critical in developing and designing ecological sanitation model for economic and optimum waste management model using composting system in towns of the Maharashtra .
The municipal councils and local authorities are spending large amount of their budget on solid waste management
system , which is major constraint in expanding other civic services to citizens . This paper will deals with present
scenario in compost using the organic waste such as nightsoil, animal execreta etc. and its application in agriculture and forestry, past efforts to ensure the economic development of compost process from agriculture waste, kitchen waste, market waste and organic waste . It also discusses some of recent successful examples in regards to public - private and peoples partnership in infrastructure provision for biotreatment and marketing for the same. The paper emphasizes for extensive capacity building for ecological sanitation using compost process and its application for sustainability at local level for economic use of organic waste . |
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| Human Dimension of Climate Change Activities in Jamaica and the Caribbean |
| Author: Chen, A. Anthony
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| Institutional Affiliation: Department of Physics, University of the West Indies, Mona, Jamaica |
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| Panel Title: Early Warning and Preparedness |
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| Paper Link: docs/Chen_anthony.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| One of the first concerns of global change was climate change and so it remains today. With the inherent uncertainties in projecting future climate change and impacts, it is now recognized that studies of the impact of climate variability is an acceptable avenue for exploring the impacts of future climate change. Research teams in the Caribbean have been studying climate variability and impacts for the last 10 years. Much of this effort has been concentrated on analyzing and understanding climate variability so as to predict seasonal climate. However there have been efforts to link climate prediction to applications in the human dimension. Three climate outlook forums have been held in the Caribbean region at which potential users of climate prediction have been invited. This report is concerned primarily with the English-speaking Caribbean, particularly with Jamaica. A survey of the benefits of the first 2 forums was carried out to assess their impacts. The main success has been the ability to use the predictions to access greater funds for disaster preparedness. Impediments to the application of climate predictions were due primarily to the poor flow of information from the source of prediction to the potential users, the inherent uncertainties in the prediction and the lack of media interest. The use of the national meteorological offices as interpreters of climate predictions for users was seen as the necessary way forward. This would require an investment in training of meteorological officers. A need for pilot projects in climate prediction applications was also identified. The Caribbean now has at least one project in climate change. This project entitled The Threat of Dengue Fever ' Assessment of the Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change in Human Health in the Caribbean is funded by the Assessment of the Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change (AIACC) initiative of TWAS and START. The project has been in existence for 1 year, during which time activities were mainly devoted to the training of researchers. Field work has now begun and preliminary results will be presented as well as the assessment of the climate outlook forums described above. |
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| Towards a Robust Research Protocol for Local Dimensions of Global Environmental Change Research: Methodological Challenges Considered |
| Author: Chen, Ke
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| Institutional Affiliation: Clark University |
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| Panel Title: Methodologies for Assessing Vulnerability and Sustainability |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Scientists, policy makers and other stakeholders now realize that localities will play a central role in addressing the consequences of global environmental change. For example, people will experience the positive and negative impacts of climate change locally and will implement adaptation strategies locally. Despite this awareness, science has no systematic effort to monitor global environmental change and related human-environment interactions at local scales. One reason is that infrastructure does not exist that allows and promotes such monitoring. In view of these, the Human-Environment Regional Observatory project (HERO) ' modeled on the Long Term Ecological Assessment (LTER)' aims at developing the infrastructure needed to monitor and understand the local dimensions of global environmental change, with emphasis on human-environment interactions. To reach that goal, HERO is developing research protocols and data standards for collecting data. These protocols and standards will facilitate the studying and monitoring of human-environment interactions at individual sites and, at the same time, will enable cross-site comparisons and generalizations.
The ambitious goal of HERO research raises a series of challenging questions to human-dimensions of environmental research: can HERO be regarded as the social scientist's equivalent of the natural scientist's laboratory? Can a suite of HERO protocols be seen as an adequate approximation to the experimentation in the natural sciences, as someone would like to see? What is the interrelationship between various methodological and research design approaches as regards to the need of cross-site comparison? What methodological insights can the perennial debate between nomothetic and idiographic traditions of human sciences offer us? This paper discusses these questions in relation to some key methodological issues in human dimensions of environmental change (HDEC) research. It will attempt to analyze not only the inevitable weaknesses and limitations of any HERO protocol but also its potential utilities in building empirical theories of HDEC. The focus will be on two principal methodological problems in developing HERO protocol (namely, many variables, small number of cases), methodological strategies for minimizing these problems, and their implications for further development of the protocol.
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| Human Dimensions Data: A View from the Data Management Community |
| Author: Chen, Robert
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| Co-Author(s): W. Christopher Lenhardt |
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| Institutional Affiliation: CIESIN, Columbia University |
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| Panel Title: Data on the Human Dimensions of Environmental Change: Lessons from the Past and Future Opportunities |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| In 1995, Waldo Tobler et al. had just released the first version of the Gridded Population of the World dataset (with CIESIN support). For global socioeconomic data, most researchers relied on nation-based datasets from UN organizations, either mined from printed documents, accessed via 9-track tapes, or taken from secondary compilations such as the World Resources report or the World Bank's PC-based tables. Textual material such as international treaties, newspaper archives, scientific papers, and technical documents were just starting to become available on-line in digital form. Global-scale environmental data were available for some aspects of the environment, e.g., climate and vegetative cover, but remained limited for others such as pollution and land cover change.
Over the past 8 years, a startling array of data have become much more accessible and usable. We have much more solid experience in cross-disciplinary data integration and analysis and we know much more about specific data problems, incompatibilities, inconsistencies, and gaps. A range of research and data development initiatives have helped improve data quality, coverage, consistency across language, culture, time, and other dimensions, and applicability. A vast amount of environmental data from satellites and other platforms is becoming available and easier to access.
Much more needs to be done to improve the overall accessibility and usability of both socioeconomic and environmental data and to develop tailored, interdisciplinary data focused on key HD research questions. Specific needs include methods to account for changes in the underlying spatial representativeness of administrative data, coding and indexing systems to facilitate linkage of heterogeneous databases, better approaches to integrating observed and model-generated data, and ways to preserve confidentiality when cross-linking human subjects and environmental data. Other important issues include the preservation and recovery of important historical sources of data needed for studies of long-term human-environment interactions, potential utilization of new digital databases developed by the private sector, tools for on-line monitoring and data collection, and intellectual property and data access rights. Perhaps we can envision an Open Meeting 8 years from now where data will uniformly enable, and not constrain, the key questions being tackled by the HD research community!
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| Role of Afforestation and Reforestation for Sustaining Biodiversity and Livelihood: A case from Southern Western Ghats, India |
| Author: Chikkarangappa, Nagaraja
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| Co-Author(s): Jagannatha Rao., P. Sudha and N.H. Ravindranath |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Centre For Ecological Sciences, Indian Institute of Science |
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| Panel Title: Population, Poverty and the Environment: Case Studies from Around the World |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Forest clearing, forest degradation through human disturbances, and the deterioration of land productivity due to inappropriate agricultural practices is a major problem in the tropics. Restoration of ecosystem health and productivity has generally relied on abandonment of land and subsequent natural forest succession. In recent years there has been consideration of management options to accelerate recovery and restore productivity, biodiversity, hydrology and also meeting the community livelihood. The proliferation of degraded tropical landscapes in need of rehabilitation and the reduction of primary forest area have forced a closer collaboration between ecologists and land managers.
This collaboration has led to new paradigms of forest management, new insights into forest ecology through comparative ecological research, a more objective analysis of the ecology of tree plantation and better understanding of the ecological functioning of these ecosystems. Plantation forests can have the same functions as secondary forests stands. However, because of their species composition, structure and management history, plantations can be more susceptible to disturbances than secondary forests. Plantations can be designed for maximization of particular outputs such as timber, or for specific land rehabilitation objectives such as protection of soils from erosion.
In this line we are planning to discuss the following issues with special reference to Indian Western Ghats.
· Role of plantations - improving the regeneration of native species/succession
· Role of plantations - rural community livelihood improvement
· Role of plantations - fulfilling demands of forest based industries
· Role of plantations - Global impacts by carbon sinking
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| An assessment of climate scientist-user interactions in linking climate science and agricultural management in Zimbabwe |
| Author: Chikoore, Hector
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| Co-Author(s): Marshall Mdoka |
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| Institutional Affiliation: University of Zululand, South Africa/Meteorological Service, Zimbabwe |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Zimbabwe depends on subsistence agriculture for the basic needs of nearly 15 million people. In recent years, extremes of climate variability such as recurrent droughts and cyclone-induced floods have threatened agricultural and environmental management and socio-economic development in the country. Every year, the regional climate outlook forum (SARCOF) brings together research scientists, climate forecasters, and climate information users to create consensus seasonal climate predictions. Pilot studies to investigate the use of seasonal forecasts targeted at the smallholder farmers were undertaken. The results show that dissemination of climate forecast information is effective in reaching out to smallholder farmers who are resource poor and farm in marginal environments using rain dependant methods. However, the pathway is not very effective in making the information useful for agricultural management. A number of reasons were identified. Limited understanding of climate forecasting science among smallholder farmers, low forecast skill, poor forecast timing and inappropriate forecast content inhibit linking forecasts with agricultural decision making. Decisions mostly influenced by forecasts are the time of planting, crop type, crop varieties, size of area planted and nitrogen management. The forecast content gives the probable rainfall expected compared to the long-term average, and not the time distribution of the rains within the season. But smallholder farmers require information about the timing and duration of the midseason dry spell. However, climate forecast information is only one piece of information in a wide range of information required in decision making. Other socio-economic factors such as market forces, access to credit and economic hardships exist which override the science. There is generally low foreign investment in the region with effects on market prices, access to credit, crop subsidies and the average income worsening the socio-economic status of the people. The pilot studies have shown also that even if the small-scale farmers understood the climate predictions, they could do very little about them, in view of economic hardships. Because of recent efforts by climate experts, policy makers, who are also users of climate forecasts, are becoming increasingly aware of the need for proactive disaster management and adaptation strategies for sustainable development.
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| Perceptions of Climate change among different sectors in the Mexican population |
| Author: Conde, Cecilia
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| Co-Author(s): Rosa Maria Ferrer |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Centro de Ciencias de la Atmosfera, UNAM |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: docs/conde3.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| In 2002, the Science Museum in London presented the results of a survey applied in several developing countries, including Mexico (March - September, 2002). The UK International Development Department sponsored the project.
In Mexico, we implemented 20 surveys, focusing on citizens' perceptions of climatic change, its effects in their every day life, the possible actions that could be taken to address climate change and what they were doing to reduce climate change.
The survey data was complemented by some children's drawings of climate change.
The survey was applied in 3 states of the country: Mexico City, Tlaxcala and Puebla. Farmers, employees, students, and children answered the three main survey questions. . Children preferred to draw their idea of climate change, its effects or possible actions to reduce it. Old people compared current climate with the one they lived 10 or 20 years ago.
The changes perceived by farmers were generally related to changes in distribution, intensity and timing of the rainy season. The urban population surveyed perceived climate change mainly as changes is temperature (heat waves), and children where more aware of pollution and importance of waste management.
The results showed that there is a common perception that climate has changed and/or is changing. Also, actions to ameliorate its effects where seen as a responsibility of the government agencies. The respondents thought that activities related to reducing consumption, recycling waste and conserving green areas could be a contribution to a more general effort to address climate change. |
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| Science Assessment and Acidification Control Policies in Europe and Asia |
| Author: Connolly, Barbara
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| Institutional Affiliation: University of Notre Dame |
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| Panel Title: Scientific Knowledge, Controversy, and Assessment in Global-Change Regimes |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| It has become conventional wisdom that scientific assessment of the causes and effects of acidification in Europe as well as the scientific assessment of environmental and economic ramifications of different European acidification control strategies have produced a successful model for the interaction of science and sound environmental policy. This interpretation comes from evaluation of the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP) and its 30-year history of increasingly stringent protocols to regulate emissions across Europe of the precursors of acid rain. This paper suggests that the conventional wisdom is inadequately nuanced, and risks making generalizations from the European experience that will not hold for acidification policies in other regions of the world. First, the paper demonstrates that European states very seldom made international regulatory commitments that went beyond what they were already committed to domestically, even where such cuts were clearly recommended on the basis of environmental and economic efficacy. Related to the first claim, very few states in Europe were led to the discovery of acidification damages and hence new attitudes toward international regulation because of internationalized science assessment. Second, the paper argues that where science has had the greatest impact on European acid rain policies is in the area of agenda-setting. The most dramatic change in European air pollution policies is not the stringency, but rather the development of an approach that incorporates the influence of multiple pollutants resulting in multiple effects. This has led to European Union directives and a LRTAP protocol with increased economic efficiency and wider environmental benefits, compared with the previous single-pollutant regulatory approach. Finally, the paper examines the experience to date in transferring to Asia the science-policy interactions embodied in the consulting role of IIASA's RAINS modelers to both LRTAP and the European Commission, through the creation of a RAINS-Asia model and science-policy network. The comparison illuminates how the distribution of costs and benefits of emissions regulation have been more fortuitous for international agreements in Europe than in Asia, thereby separating political effects from the effects of science-policy interactions.
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| Vulnerability to climate chnage of Moldova's agriculture and food systems: some estimations |
| Author: Corobov, Roman
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| Co-Author(s): Sergiy Chealik |
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| Institutional Affiliation: US-Moldova CRDF project MG1-2318-CH-02,
Principal Investigator |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Based on the recent General Circulation Model projections, detailed understanding the potential consequences of climate variability and change on the agriculture and food systems of the Republic of Moldova is provided. The following items are studied: (a) the scenarios of likely future agroclimate; (2) the ways, in which the climate change affects the different branches of Moldova's agriculture and water resources, considering the latter as a main limiting factor for national agriculture productivity; (3) the adaptation measures and possible coping mechanisms to guarantee Moldova food provision and food security; (4) national priorities in the climate change program in context of agriculture and food security sustainable development.
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| Bridging the Gap between National Development Policies and Dealing with Climate Change |
| Author: Dave, Rutu
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| Co-Author(s): Rajesh Nair, P.R. Shukla, Rob Folkert, Marcel Kok |
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| Institutional Affiliation: National Institute for Public Health and Environment- Environmental Assessment Agency |
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| Panel Title: Regional Cooperation and Climate Change |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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Development problems in the South will be exaggerated by Climate change. The UNFCCC and independent scientific analysis have reiterated that strong and inclusive global co-operation will be needed to realise the deep reductions in greenhouse gas emissions necessary over the longer term to control climate change. Yet, in the years since the constitution of the UNFCCC in 1992, IC-DC co-operation on climate change has not developed adequately.
The project 'Development and Climate' explores the idea that a less polarised way of meeting the challenges of sustainable development and climate change is to build environmental and climate policy upon development priorities that are vitally important to developing countries. This approach has been coined the 'development first' approach. The goals of the project are:
1) Explore national development strategies and policies that both meet development priorities of the countries and address climate change. The focus in exploring this is on energy and food security (incl. water issues).
2) Identify promising policy options and projects and facilitate the formation of networks to implement these options.
3) Through partnerships between centres of excellence in DC's and IC's promote capacity building.
4) Country studies, learn lessons how international policies can enhance implementation of integrated development and climate strategies.
'Development and Climate' focuses through country studies in India, China, Bangladesh, South Africa, Senegal and Brazil, on the prospects for a constructive role of developing countries in addressing the climate change problem by reconnecting development and climate change. It starts with development problems that are already politically central i.e. energy and food security. Based on that the project investigates how these problems can be solved in the most climate-friendly way.
This paper will elaborate the basic ideas behind the 'development first' approach and elaborate scenarios and interpret strategies for India that address development goals for energy and food security in a climate friendly and climate safe way. Also it will be explored how international policy making can enhance such integrated development and climate strategy.
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| Frontiers in the Application of Sub-National Data in Population, Development and Environment Research |
| Author: de Sherbinin, Alexander
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| Institutional Affiliation: CIESIN, Columbia University |
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| Panel Title: Population and Environment Research: Taking Stock and Looking Forward |
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| Paper Link: docs/desherbinin.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| Many early studies of population-environment linkages were essentially statistical analyses of national-level data on population size, density and growth, on the one hand, and environmental trends such as deforestation, carbon-dioxide emissions, or land degradation, on the other. Apart from relying on often questionable environmental data, these studies tended to generate weak or spurious correlations, falling easily into the ecological fallacy that if population growth coincided in the same geographic unit with environmental degradation (however construed), the one must have caused the other.
This paper builds on work that CIESIN is undertaking for the United Nations Millennium Development Project. CIESIN has compiled a large collection of sub-national data on wide range of population and development indicators utilizing sources such as the Demographic and Health Surveys, national human development reports, and other national and international data collections. In addition, CIESIN has access to a large number of environmental data sets related to forest and land cover, soil quality, climatic zones, and farming systems. With richer sub-national data and more powerful GIS packages, it is possible to deepen the analysis and point out areas where the confluence of population size, density or growth; extreme poverty; and significant environmental change warrant further ground-level study.
This paper will present a brief review of past efforts at population-environment national-level statistical analyses, and will then present the results of our sub-national analyses using examples from Brazil, sub-Saharan Africa, China, and parts of South and Southeast Asia.
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| Stakeholder Participation in Integrated Assessments: a CARA case study |
| Author: Dempsey, Rachael
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| Co-Author(s): Ann Fisher |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Penn State University
Penn State Institutes for the Environment |
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| Panel Title: Consortium for Atlantic Regional Assessment (CARA): Complex Coupled Systems |
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| Paper Link: docs/Dempsey_2.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| The Consortium for Atlantic Regional Assessment (CARA) provides 1) an easy-to-access information resource that stakeholders can use for a variety of applications, and 2) a framework for integrating and assessing the complex coupled systems governing changes in land use and climate ' locally and regionally.
CARA aims to help stakeholders make sense of risks and uncertainties, assess trade-offs, evaluate options and plan for adaptation to the potential impacts of change. CARA studies how local stakeholders find answers to three basic questions related to potential changes in land use and climate in their area: How can the economic resource base be safeguarded? How can the health, integrity and resilience of the natural resource base be preserved? How will the infrastructure respond and cope? Case study feedback also has implications for broader needs and applications within the Mid- and Upper-Atlantic region of the USA.
Highlighted here are how the Adirondack Park case study uses CARA to find answers to these three questions, and how local input is incorporated into designing and improving CARA services.
First, scientific facts matter; CARA tools integrate data to help the Adirondack community visualize the multiple layers of socio-economic driving factors and landuse patterns and climate projections. CARA provides tools for 1) integrating climate, land use, environmental and socio-economic data; 2) generating more specific information, maps and scenarios for locations and problems of interest; and 3) assessment and decision making.
Second, stakeholder participation is highly valued. CARA elicits feedback on 1) what really matters to people about land use and climate in their region, and 2) what works when using CARA resources. Feedback from local Adirondack stakeholders is being used to: improve information resources and tools in a participatory and iterative process; understand how stakeholders use scientific information and tools; and increase the flexibility of CARA tools and services and their use in developing adaptive strategies in an environment of change. |
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| Cohort patterns of residential energy use in the U.S. and the outlook for future demand |
| Author: Desai, Mausami
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| Co-Author(s): Brian O'Neill |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Global Environment Program, Watson Institute for International Studies, Brown University |
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| Panel Title: Environmentally Sustainable Energy Production |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Residential energy use in the United States has undergone substantial changes over the past several decades. Shifts in total demand, in efficiency of energy use, and in the composition of demand by end use and by fuel type have occurred in response to price changes, technological change, and other factors. Most analyses of energy use patterns have focused on time series of aggregate variables, cross sectional patterns, or on determinants of demand at the household level. The cohort perspective on energy use has received far less attention. We draw on a series of nationally representative household energy surveys conducted since 1973 to construct 'cohorts' of households, and analyze cohort patterns of energy use since that time. Our analysis reveals several patterns with potentially important implications for future demand. For example, while cross sectional analysis indicates a decline in living area (i.e., the physical size of a housing unit) with age of the householder, our analysis reveals that this is largely a cohort effect. Within cohorts, the mean size of housing units peaks when householders are middle aged, and does not decline substantially thereafter. Peak housing unit size, an important determinant of energy demand, has been increasing over time. Thus a future increase in potential demand may be locked in due to large housing unit sizes in middle aged cohorts and persisstence in preferences for housing unit size. However, we also find that although housing unit size increases as young households age into the middle age groups, energy demand actually declines. We offer possible explanations for how cohorts are achieving this reduction in energy use while increasing living space, and what its implications may be for future energy demand. Finally, we estimate quantitatively the extent to which cohort patterns may affect future demand for energy use, relative to projections which do not take this perspective into account. |
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| Towards de-carbonization of cities |
| Author: Dhakal, Shobhakar
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| Co-Author(s): Hidefumi Imura |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Urban Environmental Management Project, Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES)
3-9-30, Asano, Kokurakita-ku, Kitakyushu, Japan 802 0001
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| Panel Title: Industrial Transformation: Taking Stock of Regional Approaches (IHDP IT Session 4) |
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| Paper Link: docs/dhakal.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| Industrial Transformation project studies 'city' from the viewpoint of how to decouple the activities of urban system from effects on the carbon cycle. City's transformation in terms of urbanization and global atmosphere, energy use, GHG emissions, their driving force and future scenarios are the core areas. The research agenda asks some key questions, which are a part of major ongoing debates in international global change research community: Can we reduce or eliminate dependency of cities on fossil fuel? What effects has current urban system upon GHG emissions? Why and how such effects differ from city to city? How to seek interventions to the existing trend by simultaneously addressing global and local concerns?
Many researches and workshops were supported by IT to achieve its research mandate in that area. The activities exposed huge regional differences in the scale of undertaken-research, immediate research priorities, capacity, and resources availability in this area. Examples of projects include:
· Cities and IT in Asia with special regards to energy consumption and GHG emissions.
· The global cities-global change initiative.
· Advance institute on urbanization, emissions and global carbon cycle.
Specially, rapidly industrializing East Asian mega-cities undergo a rapid transformation due to massive economic growth in last few decades. One of the research projects of IT addresses this issue based on historical analyses, modeling, situational analyses and future scenarios of energy use and GHG emissions in Tokyo, Seoul, Beijing and Shanghai, to identify appropriate local policy interventions. The study showed that in the studied cities indirect emissions based on material consumption exceed direct emissions by several times; driving factors for energy use and GHG emissions were clearly different; the role of urban transportation in energy use and GHG emissions becomes more pronounced; and that future transformation can be intervened by appropriate policy measures. The study will be expanded to other cities with different income groups, urban characteristics, and urban governance pattern. The aim is to identify differences in decoupling the rising GHG emissions from transport sector as industrialization progresses and to evaluate what kind of approaches would be effective to these groups for such decoupling.
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| The Economic Costs of Slash-and-Burn Agriculture and Forest Fires in the Brazilian Amazon |
| Author: Diaz, Maria del Carmen Vera
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| Co-Author(s): Daniel C. Nepstad, Ronaldo S. da Motta, Mário Jorge C. Mendonça, Ane Alencar and Ramon A. Ortiz |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Instituto de Pesquisa Ambiental da Amazonia |
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| Panel Title: Integrated Assessment for Sustainable Development |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Slash-and-burn agriculture is widely incorporated in the productive process in the Amazon and is considered to foster agricultural expansion in the region. Every year, towards the end of the dry season, farmers and ranchers burn their lands to transform forests in agricultural areas, and/or to control invasive species. However, when out of control, fire also causes losses to landholders by burning areas that were not supposed to be burned and generating externalities to society (CO2 emissions and respiratory diseases). The objective of this work is to valuate the economic and environmental impacts of fire in the Amazon for society as a whole and for rural property owners. Such impacts include burned grassland, forest and plantations, lost fences, C02 emissions and respiratory diseases.
Results show that the economic costs of fire in the Amazon caused by burned pasture and fences are between US$12 and 97 million per year. During the El Niño/Southern Oscilation (ENSO) of 1998, forest fires affected approximately 30,000 km2, almost two times the annual deforested area in the Region, which resulted in the loss of US$1-13 million dollars in timber. These losses are equivalent to 0.1 to 0.2% of the Amazon's Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and 0.2 to 1.6% of the Region's Agricultural GDP.
Social costs of fire in the Amazon were, however, superior. The most important being the CO2 emitted into the atmosphere by forest fires. A total of 250 ± 220 million tons of CO2 were released during the 1998 ENSO event. In contrast, during the non-ENSO year of 1995 the total emitted amount was 16 ± 13 tons of CO2. Emissions from 1998 represent an economic cost of US$4.7 ± 4.6 billion. In 1995, emissions' value was US$290 ± 280 million. Respiratory diseases caused losses between US$1 and 11 million per year, as a result of the 4,000 to 13,000 registered hospitalizations. Total annual losses caused by fire in the Amazon, in average, sum between US$107 million and US$5 billion dollars, or between 0.2 and 9.3% of the Amazon GDP, or 2 to 79% of the Agricultural GDP of the Region. |
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| Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Conceptual Framework |
| Author: Dietz, Thomas
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| Institutional Affiliation: Michigan State University |
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| Panel Title: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| No abstract available. |
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| Economic Growth with Environment and Physical Capital |
| Author: Dinda, Soumyananda
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| Institutional Affiliation: Indian Statistical Institute, Kolkata-108, India
S.R.Fatepuria College, Beldanga, Murshidabad, W.bengal, India |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| The effective policy prescription depends on the actual position of the economy. Our motivation for this study is to search for the evidence of the linking of economic growth and environment. To be specific, we are interested to observe how economic growth is systematically linked to the position of the economy as well as the environment. In this paper, we examine the convergence and growth theory where environment (as input) enters into the welfare and production function.
This paper examines the convergence hypothesis in two-sector endogenous growth model. This two-sector endogenous growth model consists of good-production and abatement activity, both sectors use capital and environment as inputs. The relative factor intensities of two production sectors play the vital role in determining the transitional dynamics of the system. The growth rate of output falls over time on the transitional path if the initial ratio of physical capital to environment is lower than the steady state level. We obtain an algebraic equation of the conditional convergence in two-sector model of endogenous growth with physical capital and environmental capital. Our model predicts that the average growth rate of output is negatively related to the initial level of output and positively related to the initial level of environment. |
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| Have we arrived? Part II - Common methodology, human dimensions and natural resource research |
| Author: Dovie, Delali Benjamin K.
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| Institutional Affiliation: Restoration & Conservation Biology Research Group
School of Animal, Plant & Environmental Sciences
University of the Witwatersrand
Wits 2050, Johannesburg |
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| Panel Title: Civil Society Movements and Environmental Change |
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| Paper Link: docs/Dovie.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| The role of indigenous knowledge and resource use in applied science and development, needs more recognition because of evidences of peoples' influence on nature for decades. However because of the multifaceted nature of human ' nature interaction, working towards a common methodology for examining such linkages is paramount. This paper aims to suggest a new technique, the 'hierarchical valuation scheme' (HVS) for promoting the integration of the natural sciences and ethnobiology. HVS emerged from a natural resource use and livelihoods study in rural South Africa, providing an interface of methodologies. HVS has roots in socioanthropological approaches for data collection. However, it represents a biologist's opinion for understanding production and consumption networks of rural households and implications for land use activities. HVS is built on sound mainstream scientific principles of sampling, data collection and analyses, and minimizing the concerns of biases in human dimensions research. The technique therefore provides favorable ways of seeking robust and credible socioanthopological information that can be analyzed quantitatively for scientific merit. It emphasizes the combined usage of participatory learning and action techniques, and interviews at household levels for understanding the complex dynamics of resource use and livelihoods. It provides windows for mainstream scientists (e.g. natural scientists) to interact with people having different perspective of resource use that may be required for conservation and rehabilitation planning. |
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| Taking Stock of Increasing Integrative Analytical Capability in Vulnerability Research |
| Author: Dow, Kirstin
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| Co-Author(s): Roger Kasperson |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Stockholm Environment Institute, University of South Carolina |
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| Panel Title: Methodologies for Assessing Vulnerability and Sustainability |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| As vulnerability research progresses, investigators are taking on increasingly complicated dimensions of the issue ' integrating human and ecological systems; connecting across hierarchical scales; involving multiple actors; anticipating dynamic, uncertain futures; and incorporating the multiple stresses affecting places and groups. These substantial challenges are being addressed with a wide array of methods and conceptual approaches by an international and interdisciplinary community. This paper discusses on the paths of development of vulnerability research, first providing an overview of the broadening of the research agenda over the past decade, and second reviewing findings on methods and vulnerability processes from a series of case studies exploring the interactions of multiple stresses and interactions across scales.
Much of the early work on vulnerability recognized, but did not substantially engage, multiple stresses on places and groups and the connections of these stresses across different social scales. Although the potential for additive, antagonistic, or synergistic interactions is known, addressing these multi-scale, multi-actor, multi-stress issues has awaited some greater resolution on definitional and conceptual issues and the concurrent widening of the scope of vulnerability discussions from their focus on exposure and loss measures to greater current engagement with coping capacities and the linkages with longer term adaptation. We report on our recent work at the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) on integrating multiple dimensions through: identifying 'hot spots' for strategic environmental management in the Mekong; examining the changing structure of coping strategies for residents of the coffee growing regions of Vietnam; and coping with sequences of natural disaster in Honduras.
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| Hydroelectric dams and sustainable development on the Xingu river (Brazil) |
| Author: Drummond, Jose
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| Co-Author(s): Elimar Nascimento |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Universidade de Brasilia |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Brazil is a world-class producer of hydroelectric energy, The country depends on dams for more than 90% of its energy requirements. The large rivers of the Amazon region are targeted for several dams, because the feasibility of new dams in other regions is declining, and alternatives such as natural gas and nuclear are fraught with difficulties. The Belo Monte dam, on the Xingu river, would be the largest one in Brazil and is scheduled to be built soon river. It has been the object of a decade-old debate. The a federally-owned utility, Eletronorte, deeply changed the original project in response to criticism and organized social resistance. With the purpose of increasing the support of the project among local actors (farmers, colonists, loggers, indigenous peoples and others), it also hired an independent team of scientists to pull together a Sustainable Development Plan and a Regional Insertion Plan, with the stated purpose of funneling benefits and investments to the 11 municipalities affected by the lake and plant operation. These plans were two years in the making, and included a participatory methodology, a study of socioeconomic dynamics since the 1970s, an inventory of natural resources and economic opportunities, a study of social and environmental impacts of road-building and colonization and the proposal of dozens of specific programs (educational, environmental, managerial, development of businesses, certification, technological improvement etc.). Also included was an evaluation of the alternative energy sources that can be developed locally, regionally and nationally, reaching the conclusion that hydroelectric dams remain the cheapest solution, with lower environmental impacts, including the dimension of greenhouse gases emission. The plans attempted to address all issues that can turn the hydroelectric dam into a pole of sustainable development, on the basis of massive local investments (to be made by the utility and by the dam operator) and self-supporting social and economic mechanisms. If Eletronorte's paradigm is successfully adopted, dams and other large projects can become developmental assets and Brazil's contributions to the greenhouse effect will be lessened substantially over the next decades. |
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| Does climate risk matter? Agricultural adaptation in a "multi-stressor" context: Three cases from Mexico |
| Author: Eakin, Hallie
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| Institutional Affiliation: Center for Atmospheric Sciences, National Autonomous University of Mexico |
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| Panel Title: Vulnerability to Multiple Stressors: Globalization and Climate Change |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Impacts research has repeatedly demonstrated the sensitivity of crop outcomes to climatic factors, yet deriving statements about the vulnerability of the farm system from such linkages is not always straightforward. When faced with market volatility, changing agricultural and social welfare policies, new institutional structures and increasing economic insecurity, climate factors can be relatively insignificant in the prioritization of risk by farm households, even in areas highly exposed to climatic hazards. Using ethnographic and survey data from three communities in central Mexico, this paper dissects the factors which inform the key agricultural decisions of farm households who face different combinations of non-climatic stress. Arguing that agricultural adaptation is essentially a process of decision-making in a multi-stressor environment, the paper illustrates how households' decisions and "choice sets" are structured by the history of agricultural development in each location, their command over productive resources, their degree of market involvement and the relationship of the households to new agricultural and social policy. The data shows that while agricultural adaptation is continually occurring through the daily decisions of such farm households, we cannot assume that climatic factors will drive agricultural strategies. The documentation of the driving factors of daily decisions also provides insights into the potential utility of climate forecasts for farmers acting in complex systems. Given the constraints on "spontaneous" or autonomous adjustment to climatic risk at the farm-level, it becomes far more critical to address such risk through the development of sector and broader economic policy. |
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| Institutional Dimensions of Global Environmental Change in Coastal and Marine Systems |
| Author: Ebbin, Syma
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| Co-Author(s): Are Sydnes |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Institutional Dimensions of Global Environmental Change (IDGEC) |
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| Panel Title: Global Environmental Change and Coastal Areas: A Microcosm of Coupled Human-Environment Systems |
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| Paper Link: docs/Ebbin.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| The Institutional Dimensions of Global Environmental Change (IDGEC) project focuses on the role of institutions in causing and addressing global environmental change by examining causality, performance and design issues. Analytically, IDGEC research explores how well institutions match the biophysical environment (problem of fit), how different institutions interact (problem of interplay) and how the changing scale or level of social organization changes the lessons learned. To date, IDGEC research has focused on marine systems through its flagship activity on the Performance of the Exclusive Economic Zones (PEEZ). The main thrust of the research undertaken in this activity is to assess how the establishment of 200 mile exclusive economic zones in coastal states has affected the conservation, use and management of marine resources. This paper will summarize the marine related research undertaken within the IDGEC project and examine the findings to date. Potential avenues for new research will be explored. |
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| Using of Fuzzy Set Theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought |
| Author: Eierdanz, Frank
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| Co-Author(s): Joseph Alcamo, Dörthe Krömker |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel |
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| Panel Title: A New Approach to Assessing Vulnerability to Climate: Results from the Security Diagrams Project |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| This project aims to better understand the differences of different disciplinary views towards vulnerability to extreme climate events. These are a economics, a political science and a psychological perspective. Each discipline uses indicators to measure the dimensions of their theoretical conceptions. The indicators of the three disciplines are partly similar, e.g. both the economics and the political perspective use GDP per capita, and partly very different. The psychological discipline uses interview survey data to quantify susceptibility from an agent and perception based perspective. All approaches then use the mathematical tool Fuzzy Set Theory in an identical way to combine indicators and quantify the theoretical models of susceptibility.
This unique approach of quantitative interdisciplinary research has several very promising advantages: (i) The uniform methodological procedure facilitates the comparison of results at every step of the analyses. Not only the final results of susceptibility are completely comparable, but also the role of the different main influence factors. (ii) Because the fuzzy approach does not demand sharp thresholds between categories this methodology provides a very effective way to address the uncertainty of the indicator data. For example, using fuzzy sets it is not necessary to decide whether a GDP per capita of 10,000 US$ per year represents a 'low' or 'high' value, but it can have a certain membership of both categories. (iii) The inference model, which is a system of rules to explain the relationship and effect of the influence factors to the resulting variable, provides a very easy way to express complex and if required non-linear relations. Thus, Fuzzy Set Theory is a very useful tool for of social science and especially vulnerability research.
The paper to present at the Open Meeting will show the practical procedure to use Fuzzy Set Theory in an interdisciplinary research project. Typical difficulties, advantages and disadvantages of the fuzzy approach will be discussed. |
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| Climate Variability and Dcision Making Process:A case Study of Peasant Farmers in Southwestern Nigeria. |
| Author: Ekanade, Olusegun
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| Institutional Affiliation: Departmen of Geography, Obafemi Awolowo University,ile-ife |
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| Panel Title: Adapting to Global Change: The Role of Social Networks and Institutions |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| In the Third Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change the consensus of opinion is that the most vulnerable to the impact of climate change are the downtrodden citizens of the Third World countries. According to the report, the vulnerability will be reflected in food insecurity. However, the study reported in this paper shows that the peasant farmers in the savanna ecosystems of southwestern Nigeria have developed, over time, certain networks of decision making processes to mitigate against the effect of climate variability and extreme weather events which still make the area the food basket of the region. The Participatory Rural Appraisal technique was adopted to collect information from the farmers using a structured interview and observation package. This approach affords close contact and intimate relationship with the farmers. It was discovered that farmers in this zone are used to the vagries of weather. The farmers have several coping strategies ranging from cultivating early maturing crop species to shifting their farming activities to valley bottoms in order to ameliorate shortage of moisture arising from low rainfall. The study further shows that the decision making processes of these peasant farmers are, to some extent, influenced by the activities and operations of the Oyo State Agricultural Development Programme |
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| The Eve of Transition. Themes and challenges to understand and induce transitions |
| Author: Elzen, Boelie
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| Institutional Affiliation: Centre for Studies of Science, Technology and Society , University of Twente |
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| Panel Title: Transitions Towards Sustainability: How to Understand Them? (IHDP IT Session 2) |
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| Paper Link: docs/Elzen.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| In innovation processes, two general routes can be distinguished. In the first, technical substitution, existing technologies are replaced or supplemented by new ones with relatively little effect on the societal embedding of these technologies. The second route, broad transformation, combines technical innovation with substantial societal change. This is also called technological transition or just transition.
Substition is the main practice, largely because transitions are much more difficult to realise due to barriers created by the societal embedding of technologies. Substition may solve some sustainability problems but it very doubtful that it can help achieve sustainability in the broad sense.
This calls for further research into the dynamic of transitions and possibilities to induce and guide transtitions (also called transition management). Recent research has rendered the following main insights:
Concerning defining and understanding transitions:
· Transitions occur in encompassing systems (or regimes) characterised by range of technologies, infrastructures, patterns of behaviour, cultural values, policies, etc.
· Transitions imply change processes that affect all or a large part of these dimensions, at least characterised by a combination of technical and social / behavioural change.
· Transitions refer to long-term processes, of the order of decades.
Concerning transition management
· Transitions cannot be managed in the strict sense, i.e. they cannot be steered by a central actor (government or other) to realise specific objectives.
· By implication, transition management is an interactive process that needs to take place between a heterogeneous set of actors, each acting on the basis of their own vital interests and expectations.
· Transition management is about a continuous process of taking action, evaluating the response to this after some time and subsequently taking new action; it's a process of 'learning-by-doing'.
· Transition management is not about solving today's problems by tomorrow. It is about inducing and stimulating the development of longer term but more fundamental and more effective solutions that may even imply accepting that problems initially get worse.
In the paper these points will be elaborated in further detail. The paper will end by posing some challenges for research and policy in the years ahead. |
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| Communal resource tenure arrangements for conservation and sustainable development in the Gulf of California region, Mexico |
| Author: Enriquez-Andrade, Roberto
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| Institutional Affiliation: Faculty of Marine Sciences
Autonomous University of Baja California |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Working in collaboration with stakeholders, we address the problems raised by the current method of managing the coastal zones in the Gulf of California region. The challenge is to find an efficient and equitable framework to establish who can and cannot use the resources and under what rules Presently from 20 meters inland of the mean high tide to the extend of the Exclusive Economic Zone, 200 nautical miles out to sea, is constitutionally defined as public property and is de facto an open access area without effective restrictions to utilization. In this institutional setting, daily common sense decisions of residents and visitors to live, to eat, to make a living and enjoy life are steadily consuming more of the ocean's resources than are naturally replenished. Such scenario occurs when natural resources, such as fish stocks, are open to harvest in an uncontrolled fashion. Each fisherman makes the rational decision to catch all of the fish they possibly can. The problem is that everyone makes the same individual decision; eventually the fish stocks supplying commercial subsistence, and recreational fisheries will collapse without some change. The problem is not limited to fisheries but extends itself to most coastal resources in the region. The answer to the challenge can be found at the community level. The current federal system of management is too centralized and not working. Giving ownership of the resources to communities -and allowing them to develop access rules in coordination with the municipality, the state and the federal governments - may create the right incentives for conservation. |
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| Village Settlement and Land Use-Land Cover Change in a Frontier Region: Nang Rong, Thailand |
| Author: Entwisle, Barbara
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| Co-Author(s): Jeffrey Edmeades, George Malanson, Chai Podhista, Pramote Prasartkul, Ronald R. Rindfuss, Stephen J. Walsh |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Carolina Population Center
University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill |
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| Panel Title: Population, Poverty and the Environment: Case Studies from Around the World |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Patterns of village settlement affect land use and land use change, but land use and the potential for change also affect patterns of settlement. The proposed paper uses aerial photographs and derived image mosaics for 1954, 1967-1968-1969, 1982-1983-1984, and 1994, data collected in a village survey, and spatially referenced data about topography, hydrography, roads, and villages to explore this dynamic relationship over the past fifty years in Nang Rong, a district in Northeast Thailand. It considers topography, proximity to water sources, proximity to the main highway (built in the late 1960s), and proximity to other villages as factors affecting the establishment and siting of villages. It uses aerial photographs from 1954 to the present to document consequences of village settlement for land use/land cover change.
Nang Rong district, Thailand occupies approximately 1300 km 2 in the Northeast of the country. The soils are generally poor, precipitation variable, and annual rainfall low. Nang Rong was populated through in-migration combined with high rates of natural increase in the 1950s and 1960s. Even after the frontier closed in the early 1970s, the population continued to grow until the early 1990s. Between 1950 and 2000, the number of villages quadrupled, from 83 to 352, through a process of new settlement and administrative division. Over the same period, land cover shifted from forest to agricultural use. Initially, forest was converted to paddy rice in the lowlands. Subsequently, at least in part because of changed import regulations in Europe, cassava cultivation became profitable, and forest was converted to agriculture in the uplands. We will explore the possibility that village settlement patterns also changed. We will explore the impact of the construction of a paved road linking the district to Korat (a regional city) and ultimately Bangkok. This road was built for military reasons during the late 1960s but it changed market access for farmers in the district, especially in some areas. We will also explore hypotheses about social factors affecting the siting of new villages, especially the role of proximity to pre-existing villages. |
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| Cities Are The Key to Sustainability: An Exploration of the Melbourne Principles |
| Author: Epstein, Danny
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| Institutional Affiliation: Environmental Protection Branch, Environment Canada |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| The issue of urbanization and sustainable cities is one of the most serious environmental and developmental challenges of this century, and strategic actions must target urban practices if we are to be successful in addressing the challenges of sustainable development.
In Spring 2002, UNEP-IETC, EPA Victoria, and Environment Canada sponsored key workshops to examine the issue of urbanization and sustainability, and out of these workshops, the Melbourne Principles for Sustainable Cities were developed.
The importance of cities in addressing ecological sustainable development has been identified by a wide range of programs that have been delivered by both international and regional organisations, particularly at the local level in developing countries. Over the past year, Canada has been a key player in the United Nations Environment Programme's International Environmental Technology Centre initiative for Cities as Sustainable Ecosystems (CASE). In March 2002, a workshop co-sponsored by Environment Canada and UNEP-IETC explored the practicality of using the concept of CASE as a framework for examining and understanding the interactions between urban activity and the environment, as well as how such connections could be transformed into a sustainable relationship.
Building upon the findings of the Toronto CASE workshop, UNEP-IETC and Australia's State of Victoria Environment Protection Authority (EPAV) hosted a Charrette in Melbourne, Australia in April 2002. The outcome of this Charrette was a set of broadly based principles for sustainable cities, which were formally released at the Local Government Session of the World Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg.
Intended to provide a strategic framework for action, the Principles enable cities to develop sustainable solutions relevant to their particular circumstances; in Canada, a few communities have already made a commitment to utilize the Principles in their pursuit of sustainability.
The purpose of this paper is firstly, to introduce the ten Melbourne Principles for Sustainable Cities, and secondly, to explore their application in select community case studies. |
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| The impact of economic liberalisation on climate vulnerability among farmers in Mozambique |
| Author: Eriksen, Siri
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| Co-Author(s): Julie Silva |
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| Institutional Affiliation: CICERO - Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research - Oslo |
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| Panel Title: Vulnerability to Multiple Stressors: Globalization and Climate Change |
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| Paper Link: docs/Eriksen.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| Rural populations in Southern Africa are exposed to climatic variability and change; such natural pressures, however, interact with other global social processes to shape local vulnerability. Farmers have traditionally coped with crop failure through engaging in a multitude of alternative sources of food and income, most depending on local natural resources, informal networks and local skills and institutions. Changes in local economic structure can contribute to the breakdown of social support networks which assist people in times of need. Economic globalisation, in the form of liberalisation, is reshaping market access by farmer households and changing the premises and the opportunities under which these households respond to climatic changes and extremes, including drought and flood.
In this paper, we investigate the constraints and the viability of 'traditional' or non-commercial coping strategies in the context of liberalization. The paper provides an empirical analysis of household vulnerability in two farming communities in Limpopo River Valley in Mozambique, an area affected both by the severe 2000 floods and the current regional drought-induced food insecurity. Quantitative and qualitative analysis is performed on interview data and the role of local skills, products and institutions and networks in coping strategies and the constraints to these are examined. We find that economic restructuring exposes farmers to new risks while at the same time limiting the viability of non-commercial coping strategies. It is showed that many farmer households do not have access to commercial markets neither for selling their products or acquiring inputs to prepare and recover from climatic events. We argue that under economic liberalization, vulnerability is becoming increasingly differentiated both socially within a community and geographically between communities as local niches, knowledge and potential comparative advantages are devalued.
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| Globalization, environmental changes and local adaptive strategies in the Philippines |
| Author: Espaldon, Maria Victoria O.
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| Co-Author(s): Leonardo M. Florece |
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| Institutional Affiliation: University of the Philippines |
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| Panel Title: Globalization and Environment |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| The biophysical environment of Southeast Asian countries like the Philippines is rapidly changing. The paper argues that globalization is one of the major driving forces of land use change. Globalization is defined in this paper, as the 'integration of the local economy to the global market'. Under this international market regime, the Philippines has adopted a policy to focus on commercial crops with competitive advantage and promote agro-industrialization in declared economic growth corridors in the country.
Globalization has various consequences to the environment, to the livelihood of the local communities and consequently to local institutional arrangements regarding resource use. This paper outlines the different patterns by which the quality of the environmental resources is influenced by the Philippines rapid integration to the global market via the GATT-WTO/Uruguay Round of 1994. It presents a case in Mt. Makiling, Laguna Province where the economic growth corridor has caused out-migration of upland farmers to industrial estates as employment becomes available. As a result, the ecological succession of kaingin-grassland-shrublands of Mt. Makiling has been accelerated. This paper also presents the case of the coconut farmers as they respond to the plummeting prices of coconut products in the world market. For instance, coconut logging has become rampant, and are quickly replaced with other perennial crops like mango and citrus with better chances in the market. On the other hand, others started diversifying under coconuts, which made them more resilient to fluctuating market prices. These are two major cases where globalization has shown its pretty face.
However, globalization has another face of its own. In Mindanao, large scale transformation of land cover is going on as a response to growing commercialization of agriculture. Banana and pineapple are the two major crops that replace the small swidden farms and gardens, and the natural forest vegetation of Mt. Kitanglad Range located in the Province of Bukidnon. The paper presents accounts of how the landscape has changed, and how indigenous people and local communities responded to these changes, to include among others demographic and employment shift, and a further retreat of cultivation towards the more mountainous areas. |
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| Using network analysis to improve forecast use among vulnerable farmers: The Case of Bolivia |
| Author: Espejo, Rigoberto
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| Co-Author(s): Jere Gilles, Corinne Valdivia, Christian Jetté |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Proyecto Variabilidad Climatica y Bienestar familiar en los Andes |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| ENSO events adversely affect the lives of Andean peasants. In recent years there has been an increase in our ability to predict ENSO events. Even though these predictions are widely diffused through radio and televison programs, there is little evidence that these predictions are being used by vulnerable peasant families. This paper reports on a study of the networks involved in the distribution of forecast information in the Bolivian Altiplano. The study looked at national level forecasting systems, mass media and local information systems. It concluded that there was a disconnect between each of these systems that prevented the use of forecast information to adjust to drought and flood conditions. The forecast information developed by SINSAAT, the agency charged with early warning for agriculture, is not provided in a timely matter and more importantly, it is not organized in a way that would be useful to producers. Mass media receives mass media receives but does not use forecasts and farmers listen to weather reports but do not believe them. Farmers rely on the advice of local experts in potato production who have no connections with government agencies or technical assistance programs. The paper concludes by arguing that network analysis is a value technique for understanding forecast systems and by making suggestions as to how the forecast system could be changed to reduce the vulnerability of producers to drought. |
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| Reforestation and Parcelization in South-Central Indiana, United States |
| Author: Evans, Tom
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| Institutional Affiliation: Center for the Study of Institions, Population and Environmental Change; Indiana University |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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Historical reports indicate that a majority of south-central Indiana was cleared of forest cover by the early 1900's for agricultural landuses. In contrast to much of the world's forest resources, this area has recently experienced a net increase in forest cover. This forest regrowth has occurred in rural areas and outpaces the loss of forest cover to urban expansion.
We present empirical data for Indian Creek township, documenting the relationship between land ownership, forest fragmentation and forest succession over a 60 year period. GIS and remote sensing analysis are used to integrated longitudinal land ownership boundaries, historical air photos, census data and household level surveys to explore the dynamics of reforestation in this area. In particular, this analysis has produced the following findings:
1) There has been dramatic increase in land ownership fragmentation (parcelization)
2) Despite this parcelization, net forest cover has increased from 40% in 1939 to 60% in 1998
3) Forest fragmentation has decreased between 1939 to 1998
4) Forest cover regrowth is a product of a heterogeneous set of agents making different land management decisions
5) The changing social landscape and resulting land management decisions are related to changes in the economic opportunities in the area (crop prices, timber prices, wage labor rates)
While other studies have shown that land ownership fragmentation has resulted in forest fragmentation and a net forest cover decrease, this area presents an alternative scenario. Initial research indicates that this process is representative of a relatively large area of the Midwest United States. Our summary findings indicate that the reforestation that has occurred in this area is a product of the spatial heterogeneity of land suitability and land owner characteristics.
Understanding under what conditions forests regrow is as important as understanding under what conditions forest degrade or decline. The process of net forest cover increase in this area has important implications for understanding what social and economic factors contribute to forest regrowth in the context of a biophysically heterogeneous environment.
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| Bringing together environmental science and urban planning policy: case studies of Minsk, Mogilev and Vitebsk in Belarus |
| Author: Falaleeva, Maria
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| Co-Author(s): Anton Shkaruba, Liudmila Elizarava |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Belarus State University,
Faculty of Geography |
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| Panel Title: The Interactions between Global Environmental Change and Urban Processes (Session 2) |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Much of the environmental problems in Belarusian cities are associated with irrelevant urban planning policy, and resulted from the inadequate support from municipal stakeholders and environment scientists. Since the acting local governance in Belarus is virtually nonexistent, all principal city-planning / development decisions are taken by centrally appointed bureaucracy, or even outside the municipality. Development plans are safely prevented from public discussions by merely missing public participation and trustworthy NGOs. The plans are commissioned to architects from urban planning institutes, who are not well familiar with environmental issues. However, even so professional environmentalists are over-theorized and chiefly not considered for any policy decision making implications. The scientists tend to avoid touching upon multidisciplinary issues, or explore them in a customary mono-disciplinary way. Thereby, although ecological section is obligatory in development plans, it is not based upon environmental assessment and does not include mechanisms of implementation.
This paper analyses the problem of constructing sustainable municipalities in Belarus, bringing together such issues as scientific support, municipal governing, and public participation. Building on methods of geography, urban planning, sociology, environmental and political science, we have developed a conceptual framework for the improving of local-city planning policy by means of scientifically supported local initiatives. It includes such steps as environmental assessment of an urban area by multidisciplinary research groups, public opinion polls to define city-development burdens, analysis of the development plan being prepared by experts from different backgrounds and stakeholders' groups, disseminating results of the environmental assessment and summaries from experts reports. The framework was tested by applying it to major industrial cities with initial preparations of long term development plans 'Minsk, Mogilev, and Vitebsk and seen as readily adaptable to other locations. A better development plan regarding environmental perspectives is reported for the case of Vitebsk, also showing nearly untroubled stakeholders dialogue and the best environmental performance.
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| Nutrition, Health and Environmental Quality in Adaptation to Climate Change: Concepts and Empirical Lessons from Tanzania |
| Author: Few, Roger
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| Co-Author(s): Jouni Paavola, Neil Adger |
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| Institutional Affiliation: University of East Anglia |
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| Panel Title: Vulnerability and Adaptation Research in Southern Africa |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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This paper examines the role of nutrition, health and environmental quality in adaptation to climate change in the light of pluralist theories of measurement of wellbeing and development. It also explores their role in adaptation to climate change in Tanzania. The paper first discusses the now conventional approach to adaptation which proceeds by addressing climate impacts, vulnerability and adaptive capacity. It suggests that pluralist theories of the measurement of wellbeing and development proposed by Amartya Sen and others, as well as physiological research in economic history by for example Robert Fogel, have something to offer for research on adaptation. These bodies of work have demonstrated the role of nutrition and health as factors that contribute to the attainment of positive developmental outcomes, instead of viewing nutrition and health exclusively as outcomes of developmental processes. The lesson they offer for research on adaptation to climate change is that adaptive activities and responses related to food, water, energy and health may importantly contribute to the reduction of vulnerability and enhancement of adaptive capacity. They also remind us that, in addition to well-acknowledged risks associated with greater variability of climate impacts, we should pay attention to incremental climate impacts that reduce the levels of wellbeing among the most vulnerable. The paper will exemplify these and other presented conceptual arguments by examining the significance of especially water resources and forests for livelihoods and public health in Tanzania. The paper seeks to make a case for prioritising activities related to water resources and forests, together with those related to agriculture, because of the central role of forest and water resources for nutrition, health, and real incomes of the most vulnerable.
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| Institutional Adaptations to Climate Variability and Climate Change: A Latin American Comparison |
| Author: Finan, Tim
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| Co-Author(s): Maria Carmen Lemos, Donald R. Nelson, Alejandro Leon, Milka Castro, Miguel Bahamondes, Paulina Aldunce |
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| Institutional Affiliation: University of Arizona, Bureau of Applied Research and Anthropology |
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| Panel Title: Rural Livelihoods and Climate Variability: Insights for Adaptation to Longer Term Change |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Semi-arid and arid environments are characterized by high degrees of climate variability, usually droughts that incur great social and economic costs on the more vulnerable populations. Over the last decade severe climatic events in Latin America's semi-arid tropics have become more frequent, a pattern suggested by some to be the result of global warming. The capacity of society to adjust to a changing climate depends upon the underlying vulnerability of local livelihoods and the institutional capacity to buffer the impacts of climate. The institutional profile of a society defines the public role in reducing vulnerabilities and in mitigating severe events, and the analysis of political, social, and economic institutions is fundamentally critical to understand the process of adaptation. This paper compares the vulnerability of the agricultural livelihoods to climate variability and change in two semi-arid environments'Ceará state in Northeast Brazil and Region IV in Chile. These two regions share the burden of recurrent drought and high levels of vulnerability in certain agricultural sectors, and the response to climate variability among small irrigated and non-irrigated farmers is critically affected by significant diverse institutional environments at the national, regional and local levels. This paper is based on three years of research in the respective countries. It documents the variability in vulnerability among different agricultural groups and describes the institutions and the policy system that constitute the adaptive framework to climate variability and change. The analysis demonstrates very different adaptive strategies on the part of farmers and widely divergent policy philosophies with regard to institutional responses to climate variability. The paper shows not only how private and public strategies address climatic changes, but also how broader economic and sector polices affect adaptive capacities, thus how policy can better address climatic risk to facilitate adaptation. |
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| Geoscope: a tool for sustainability impact assessment |
| Author: Fischer-Kowalski, Marina
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| Co-Author(s): Carlo C. Jaeger |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Head of Department
IFF Social Ecology
Schottenfeldgasse 29
A 1070 Vienna |
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| Panel Title: How to Improve the Empirical Base for Integrated Global Change Research? |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| A more sustainable development of human society will not be achieved
without better explanations of critical human-nature interactions by
high profile interdisciplinary sciences. As a prerequisite for improved
understanding, the world community has widely established powerful
observation, monitoring and reporting initiatives for the natural
systems, i.e. climate, oceans, land cover etc.. However, we still lack
an analogue at the social systems part, especially in its linkages with
the natural systems.
The Sustainability Geoscope is the idea of a site- and regional-specific
monitoring tool for guiding transitions of human society towards
sustainability. Data from remote sensing and data collected on the
ground that focus on the interactions of socio-economic and
environmental systems will be integrated into theoretically and
strategically meaningful models. A Sustainability Geoscope will
gradually generate a large and publicly accessible database on selected
sites all around the globe with a minimum set of time-series information
based upon a common protocol. Existing data will be used wherever
available. The following thematic foci will be subject of an initial
version of the Geoscope: (i) economic development, (ii) socio-economic
metabolism, (iii) land use change, (iv) water management, (v)
biodiversity management, (vi) socio-demographic lifestyle changes. The
following regional nodes will be covered in the initial phase: four
sub-regions in Europe and three non-European regions (Sub-Saharan
Africa, Latin America, South East Asia). The partners involved will
provide site specific expertise and monitoring facilities.
A multitude of methods for data gathering and evaluation will be used,
centred around the concept of socio-economic metabolism in relation to
land and resource use. It offers an interdisciplinary and functionally
oriented view on social and economic processes, explicitly linking them
to the natural sphere. The accounting of material and energy flows will
be supported by comparative case study analysis and linked to integrated
modular modelling approaches. Careful attention will be given to common
protocol standards, database management, and public communication.
Stakeholder dialogue processes will ensure the policy and management
relevance. |
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| Conceptualizing, observing and managing societal transitions. Lessons from IHDP-IT research |
| Author: Fischer-Kowalski, Marina
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| Institutional Affiliation: IFF Social Ecology
Schottenfeldgasse 29
A 1070 Vienna, Austria
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| Panel Title: Industrial Transformation: Taking Stock of Regional Approaches (IHDP IT Session 4) |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Point of departure is the 'Industrial Transformation' Science Plan. The following questions had been asked:
1. What processes shape the relation of socio-economic activity to the natural environment, historically and in the contemporary period?
2. To what extent can current processes of change be harnessed to the goal of reducing the environmental impact of industrial activity?
3. How do institutions, norms and expectations shape industry-environment linkages?
These questions were rooted in an understanding that the current situation required substantial change in society-environment relations, that this involved major societal changes, which changes could not be expected to occur spontaneously, but deliberately brought about. What have we learned about how major societal change comes about? Have we gained useful knowledge on how to influence transitions towards sustainability?
I will screen past and ongoing IT-projects to find answers, in particular to describe:
· How they conceptualize 'societal transitions'. What basic models were employed, both for classifying societal transitions and distinguishing 'transitions' from other types of social change? Have there been major conceptual achievements over more traditional approaches like endogenous historical phases, technological regime changes oder incremental modernization? Do new concepts lend themselves to be utilized for the pro-active management of transitions, or for deliberate interventions in favour of sustainability?
· Which social systems have been the objects of research attention? What where the characteristics of the systems studied in terms of time (scale), space and social hierarchy, and how were they localized regionally?
· Which methodologies have been employed, in observation and data analysis? Have there been methodological innovations in support of a link between analysis and interventions or management? Did interdisciplinary cooperations lead to truly 'hybrid' methodologies?
· Which major findings have crystallized? What answers can we give now to the research questions posed (above) that we could not have given before? How would we reformulate these questions to direct research attention to the most urgent and most promising issues?
Finally, I will offer some reflections on how to set the agenda 'societal transitions' in the future, and how such an agenda setting could be influential in the wider research landscape.
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| Images of Changing Environments Digital Atlas |
| Author: fosnight, Eugene
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| Co-Author(s): Michelle Anthony, Matthew Orstad |
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| Institutional Affiliation: UNEP GRID Sioux Falls |
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| Panel Title: Assessment of High-Risk Natural Disaster Hotspots |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| United Nations Environment Programme Global Resource Information Database (UNEP GRID) Sioux Falls is creating a Digital Atlas of Images of Changing Environments (DA ICE) to document hot spots undergoing rapid environmental change. Targeted assessments of environmental issues are a primary responsibility of UNEP. The recasting of physical science information for the policy community requires significant new research to discover, understand and explain the causes and consequences of environmental change. UNEP's capacity building mandate provides an excellent vehicle to identify cooperators who understand the causes and consequences.
UNEP GRID Sioux Falls has amassed a holding of over 800 satellite images for over 110 selected environmentally sensitive sites. New sites continue to be identified, for areas of rapid environmental change whose issues can be effectively documented using remotely sensed images. Packages of vetted satellite images for the selected sites should provide valuable core data sets for use by researchers and managers in universities, NGOs and national agencies. These packages are distributed through the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Earth Science Information Partners.
The DA ICE opens to a world map identifying the location of the sites that is searchable by location or by theme. Each site on the map has a link to a web mapping application that will explain the issues, allow the satellite images to be viewed and show ground photography. The Digital Atlas is designed for resource managers, policy makers, students and the general public.
The atlas uses publicly available software and works with all major browsers (Netscape, Opera and Explorer) and all major operating systems (UNIX, Macintosh and Windows). Each satellite image will be served on the web as an Open GIS Consortium compliant Web Map Service with Federal Geographic Data Commission (soon to be ISO) compliant metadata discoverable through Global Spatial Data Infrastructure clearinghouses. Since the web services are publicly available, any web developer in the world can integrate these map services into their sites. These map services should provide a valuable resource for educational institutions, Non-Governmental Organizations and others interested in the documentation of our rapidly changing Earth.
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| Forest Conservation and Revival of Local Health Traditions - A Forest Department Initiative |
| Author: G.N., Shreekantaiah,
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| Co-Author(s): P. Sudha |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Karnataka Forest Department
Tumkur, Karnataka
India |
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| Panel Title: Biodiversity and Environmental Mitigation |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Medicinal plants are valuable natural resources. Unplanned development and overexploitation of medicinal plants from non-managed, natural resources have not only resulted in shortage of various herbs, but extinction of several species in nature. In the semi-arid region of Tumkur district situated in Karnataka State, South India, a total of 307 species of plants is reported from its forest area of which 167 plants (54%) are found to have medicinal importance. Herbs, shrubs and climbers constitute the major category of medicinal plants. The vast wealth of medicinal plants is diminishing due to forest degradation and non-sustainable use of forests. Also, after the advent of modern system of medicine, traditional medicinal practice is being relegated to the background. The knowledge of traditional medicine is also vanishing. Thus it is necessary to conserve medicinal plants and also revitalize local health traditions. The Karnataka Forest Department has initiated a programme towards this step.
The Forest department of Karnataka has started a Joint Forest Management programme (JFM) to involve communities in protection of the forests. In several of these villages, women self-help groups are also formed to enhance the participation of women in JFM. Through these institutions, the Forest Department has taken up a programme to conserve medicinal plants through in-situ conservation and home herbal gardens and revive the local health traditions.
The paper will highlight the following:
Ø Involvement of local communalities in conservation and sustainable utilization of medicinal plants for primary health care
Ø Institutional arrangements for traditional health care practices.
Ø Protection of forest and environment by the local institutional arrangements.
Ø Women's involvement in primary health care through local traditions
Ø Impacts of the programme on the socio-economic status of the community
Ø Sustainability and replicability of the programme.
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| South African livestock systems and adaptation to climate variability: Lessons for long- term climate change |
| Author: Galvin, Kathy A.
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| Co-Author(s): R.B. Boone, P.K. Thornton |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Department of Anthropology, Colorado State University |
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| Panel Title: Rural Livelihoods and Climate Variability: Insights for Adaptation to Longer Term Change |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Human-environment interactions are iterative processes. Many people in the world structure their lives in concert with their environmental contexts. For various reasons people can become vulnerable (the risk of negative outcomes as a result of climatic events that overwhelm the adaptations they have in place) to environmental changes due to changes in frequency or duration of those changes or because they are constrained economically, socially or politically from responding adequately to those changes. Thus, human-driven and ecological processes as well as historical contexts structure coping ability.
Southern Africa is home to thousands of livestock keepers who herd their livestock in the semi-arid to arid areas of the region. Rainfall seasonality affects livestock production and the livelihoods of these people. Periodic droughts occur in semi-arid areas of South Africa and the region during El Niño events. Recent climate analyses suggest that there will be highly differential impacts of climate change in southern Africa. Such changes may have radical effects on human land-use, human ability to adapt and consequent vulnerability of these populations.
In this paper, we explore adaptive coping strategies of commercial and communal ranchers in the North-West Province of South Africa to climate variability. We look at the factors that shape vulnerability for these populations. We look at the linkages between strategies for coping with environmental variability and adaptation to long-term environmental changes through integrated assessment. Finally, we look at the implications for policy of vulnerability.
Our study sites are five western districts of the North-west Province, two with commercial livestock farms and three with communal areas. Most commercial farmers cope with drought by selling animals. Communal farmers report having fewer coping strategies and tend to buy either fodder or sell some animals but for the most part, communal farmers tend to try and keep animals and see them through the drought. Factors of culture, history, policy, and market conditions determine how coping strategies are used by ranchers. Linked economic and ecological modeling shows: 1) long-term effects of decisions to short-term drought, and; 2) the ecological and economic effects of long-term climate scenarios.
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| Coping With and Adapting to Drought in Zimbabwe |
| Author: Gandure, Sithabiso
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| Co-Author(s): Coleen Vogel |
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| Institutional Affiliation: University of Witwatersrand
Johannesburg
South Africa |
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| Panel Title: Vulnerability and Adaptation Research in Southern Africa |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Climate variability, drought in particular has a profound effect on rural households in Zimbabwe. Research to date has often however, not fully investigated how a range of factors, including climate variability, may exacerbate adaptive capacity to global environmental changes. A variety of socio-economic pressures, when combined with a hazard such as drought, may weaken a community's ability to adapt to future long-term change. The effects of climate variability therefore need to be investigated together with a host of other underlying factors if an adequate indication of resilience or adaptive capacity is to be obtained.
The research reported in this paper contrasts two sites situated in different geographical areas that are of varying climate: one representative of high rainfall and one a relatively low rainfall area. These sites have been chosen to assess the extent to which rainfall and temperature play a role in exacerbating and/or ameliorating drought impacts. The study further outlines how communities have and are currently coping with drought and other conditions. The study therefore goes beyond an impact assessment of climate and is embedded in an assessment of the extent to which various socio-economic, political as well as biophysical environments may be heightening stress to drought. The study reveals that populations in marginal environments have always employed a wider range of coping and adaptation strategies to avert drought. The success and or failure of coping or adaptation strategies have, however been dependent on other underlying vulnerability factors. These vulnerability factors include declining soil fertility, poor delivery of early warning messages, the erosion of social capital and informal support systems, deepening poverty, lack of political commitment, the demographic and economic consequences of HIV/AIDS and the relative declining economic situation in Zimbabwe. The study therefore calls for a policy shift, to be directed to underlying causes of vulnerability as a first step to addressing the impact of climate variability to rural communities as compared to the suite of climate impact studies currently available. |
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| What do we know about transitions from historical examples? Lessons from the transition from horse-and-carriage to automobiles |
| Author: Geels, Frank
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| Institutional Affiliation: Eindhoven University |
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| Panel Title: Transitions Towards Sustainability: How to Understand Them? (IHDP IT Session 2) |
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| Paper Link: docs/geels.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| In recent years, there has been increasing interest in the issue of large-scale transitions and systemic changes, because of their promise to achieve great improvements in environmental efficiency, up to a factor 10. Before we can come up with suggestions on how to steer and influence transitions, we need to better understand their dynamics. The main question of the paper is: how do transitions come about? Transitions do not only involve technological changes, but also changes in user behaviour and user preference, regulation, industry networks, firm strategies, infrastructure, symbolic meaning. To understand the dynamics of transitions, this paper describes a multi-disciplinary perspective, based on insights from evolutionary economics, sociology of technology, and innovation studies.
The transition perspective will be illustrated empirically with a historical case-study: the transition from horse-and-carriages to cars in the United States (1860-1920). This transition is often represented as a simple substitution process, in which automobiles increasingly replaced horses.
A more detailed empirical analysis, however, will show several important complexities:
1. Early automobiles did not compete with horses, but were used for pleasure and excitement, e.g. in racing and touring.
2. Urban horses were first replaced by the electric tram, and only later by the automobile. In fact, the electric tram was the dominant transportation mode in cities between 1890 and 1930.
3. Substitution approaches only look at technologies and markets (market shares), and neglect wider dynamics which occured in the transitoion, e.g. changes in user preferences, cultural perceptions of speed and function of the street, road infrastructure, public policies. In sum, the transition was no simply a substitution proces, but a wider co-evolution process.
4. Competition between old and new technologies did not occur in one homogeneous selection environment, but in in different market niches, with different users and selection criteria. The diffusion of automobiles took place as a trajectory of niche-accumulation.
In sum, we can learn from the historical example that transitions are more complex than mere technological substitution. Although price, performance and competition are important, one also needs to pay attention to other processes. |
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| Optimal Investment in Ecological Conservation and Restoration Projects under Climate Change: A Spatial Intertemporal Analysis |
| Author: Ghosh, Koel
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| Co-Author(s): James S. Shortle, Carl Hershner |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, Pennsylvania State University. |
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| Panel Title: Consortium for Atlantic Regional Assessment (CARA): Complex Coupled Systems |
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| Paper Link: docs/ghosh.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| Climate change is expected to pose significant threats to ecosystems and biodiversity in this century, by affecting fundamental ecological processes and the spatial distribution of terrestrial and aquatic species. The successful survival of species will depend on the availability of migration corridors and the existence or emergence of suitable habitats. Thus a crucial issue in facilitating ecosystem adaptation to climate change is managing land use and landscapes to preserve migration corridors and potentially emergent habitats. This paper explores the implications of climate change for investments in ecological preservation and restoration. It presents an investment decision model that incorporates uncertainty about how climate alters the geographic distribution of biotic conditions that impacts species survival. It also addresses irreversibility associated with human alterations of land that can permanently alter the landscape. The paper borrows from the Quasi Option Value (QOV) literature and constructs a spatial extension of the QOV theory. The spatial treatment adds a new dimension to existing investment decision theory on the optimality of land use for competing conservation and development objectives. The study concentrates on the design of economically optimal strategies for aquatic species conservation, using Chesapeake Bay's Submerged Aquatic Vegetation (SAV) restoration program as a case study. Site-specific biotic conditions affect species ability to reproduce, a crucial determinant of successful restoration, thereby making restoration costs site-specific. Locations of the most cost effective sites for restoration under a changed climate are uncertain. A 'preserve all' strategy is infeasible. But allowing for development poses the risk of irreversibility from altering the ecological basis of particular locations, thus eliminating them as future restoration sites and potentially increasing the overall restoration costs. Evaluating the option of preserving alternative sites for cost effective restoration projects is the ecological-economic question addressed in this research. The paper combines the investment decision model with GIS information on the SAV habitats, irreversibility constraints and alternative scenarios of climate and land use changes to conduct an empirical analysis of the implications of alternative land use decisions for investments in habitat restoration. |
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| The Impact of Recent Land-use Change On Tropical Wildlife Communities:The Case of Nairobi National Park, Kenya |
| Author: Gichuhi, Margaret W.
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| Institutional Affiliation: KENYA POLYTECHNIC
P.O BOX 52428
NAIROBI ,KENYA. |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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The impact of anthropogenic activities on the wildlife migration corridors of Nairobi National Park was studied from between 1990 - 2000. The main land use transformations, which were considered in the assessment, included expansion of urban residential areas, proliferation of industrial and commercial activities, establishment of small-scale agricultural activities and construction of a wide range of urban-based infrastructural facilities. Both primary and secondary data was used to track down the temporal population profiles of a wide range of wildlife species including Wildebeest, Zebra and Eland against the occurrence of land use change. Rainfall data was used to assess the possible role of climate change. Both SPOT and LANDSAT imagery was used in the overall assessment of land use and land cover change. Finally, Geographic information system (GIS) was used for the integration of climatic, land use and wildlife data. The characteristics of buffer zones around the national park were used in the overall diagnosis of negative environmental change in the area.
The findings showed that most of the park's seasonal migration corridors have been seriously affected by recent land use and land cover changes. The most affected corridors were the Leopard Cliff and the southwestern corridor through the Maasai Lodge. The Wildebeest and Zebra were identified as the most vulnerable animals because they migrate in and out of the park at different seasons. There was no significant change in rainfall patter. The results implied that careful management of the park buffer area is necessary in order to sustain the traditional migratory routes for the animal and minimise the increasing human-wildlife conflicts while ensuring the future existence of Nairobi National Park, which is one of the most unique throughout the world.
(P/s I would like to do a poster presentation) |
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| Commercialization of Climate Forecast Technology: Role of the Private, Public and End-user Intersections |
| Author: Golnaraghi, Maryam
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| Institutional Affiliation: Climate Risk Solutions, Inc. |
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| Panel Title: S&T Private-Public Partnerships for Sustainable Development: Toward What End? With What Means? |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| During the last two decades, the area of short-term climate (climate variability with lead times of several months to seasons) prediction has become a high priority element of several US-federally funded programs including the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), and the US Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) as well as international organizations such as the world Meteorological Organization (WMO). Several federal agencies like the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National Science Foundation (NSF), the Department of Energy (DOE) and others have been investing significant resources in developing enhanced capabilities to observe, understand, and predict climate variability on seasonal to interannual time-scales in the US and throughout the world. Such activities often partner with international and developing country activities to produce forecasts and build technical capacity. Advancements in key technologies such as global ocean/atmosphere/land observing systems, climate modeling, computing technologies, and data visualization have led to new technologies for short-term climate forecasting. These capabilities present unprecedented opportunities for development of new forecasting tools for business decision-making applications. Over the past three years, several commercial vendors have made significant investments to commercialize these technologies to develop high quality climate forecast products for industry. During this presentation we will discuss interactions between the private and public sectors and the industry users of climate forecast information, and will explore the institutions' support interactions that could lead to a successful technology commercialization. |
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| A New Method For Comparing Land Cover Change Events |
| Author: Green, Glen
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| Institutional Affiliation: Center for the Study of Institutions, Population, and Environmental Change (CIPEC)- Indiana University
408 N. Indiana Ave.
Bloomington, IN 47408 |
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| Panel Title: Designing Landcover Change Models to Meet Policy Needs |
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| Paper Link: docs/gmgreen.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| Developing a better understanding of land cover change processes has emerged as one of the major tasks of the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change (HDGC) research community. Remote sensing and GIS technologies allow the mapping of land cover change across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Satellite derived maps, showing the progression of land cover change, are unique in their ability to provide a data-rich yet easily understood source of information.
However, methods by which the information contained in these land cover change maps is quantified are still ill defined. Can the salient information content of land cover change maps be reduced to a small set of numbers? Quantitative values, such as rates and percentages, are often presented in HDGC research results and are used by resource managers to justify their policy decisions. But the meaning of these numbers is unclear. Can these rates and percentages be reasonably compared between studies? For example, rates and percentage values can change drastically simply by changing the aerial extent of the study area or the time period under observation (the values used for normalization). Normalization values are often chosen in an ad hoc manner. To facilitate the interdisciplinary nature of HDGC research, analytical methods which lead to comparisons across scales of space and time are critical.
This paper presents a methodology to more rigorously quantify the dynamics of land cover change. It seeks to quantify that information associated with aerial extents, and not that associated with aspects of its distribution (the realm of many spatial metrics). Particular attention is paid to normalizing in accordance to the specific space-time footprint of a particular land cover change event. The method is based in part on analysis of technological change conducted at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). It is tested with a set of land cover change maps that encompass a wide range of spatial and temporal scales, specifically: two studies of deforestation at different spatial scales in eastern Madagascar, both deforestation and reforestation studies in Indiana, and wetland loss and filling around Boston Bay.
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| Give Peas a Chance: Transformations in Food Consumption and Production Systems |
| Author: Green, Ken
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| Co-Author(s): Andrew Flynn |
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| Institutional Affiliation: CROMTEC/Institute of Innovation Research, Manchester School of Management, UMIST, Manchester, UK |
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| Panel Title: Transitions Towards Sustainability: How to Understand Them? (IHDP IT Session 2) |
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| Paper Link: docs/kgreen.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| Conventional 'industrial' agricultural practices are based on advanced breeding techniques and major inputs of chemical fertilisers and pesticides. Food produced in this way is transport-intensive, requires high-energy processing, relies on modern retailing systems and demands high-tech kitchens. Strategies for alternatives are usually contrasted with this 'industrialised' system which, though responsible for huge increases in yields in many places around the world, is criticised for being unsustainable.
'Organic' systems have emerged as an alternative to industrialised systems in the richest countries, avoiding the use of synthetic chemicals by drawing on natural systems and cycles. Organic farming is often linked to new methods of retailing that cut out supermarkets. Much cultural significance is given to 'natural' products and production methods as a means of ensuring health - of humans, farm animals, and the eco-system in general.
Another alternative is the 'new industrial' system based on crop management using genomics and other resource productivity enhancing technologies, such as water recycling. This strategy is new because it takes seriously criticisms of conventional industrialised agriculture and aims to bring together the delivery of nutrition and health care - through functional foods and nutraceuticals. This strategy is based on high outputs and global supply chains, but aims to apply new technologies to radically reshape agrofood systems towards sustainability. In practice, these different systems exist side by side at national and international scales.
The paper looks at the environmental and social sustainability of different strategies by analysing the whole chain of production, processing, distribution and consumption activities of the production of frozen peas. It looks at such issues as: which technologies are seen as critical for determining sustainability in the pea production chains, and which actors are promoting technological change? What are the implications for technological innovation of different pea production and consumption strategies? To what extent do the different strategies ensure variety from which future technological innovations will emerge? |
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| Research on current and future transitions and system innovations |
| Author: Grin, John
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| Co-Author(s): R. Smits |
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| Institutional Affiliation: University of Amsterdam |
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| Panel Title: The Dutch Knowledge-Network on System Innovations (KSI): Shaping the Sustainability Arena? |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| This presentation will present the research line involving the following research questions: what are the possibilities for managing transitions and system innovations? What are major barriers and opportunities for influencing them, and how can we avoid potential lock-in and lock-out patterns? Which tools and instruments are available to initiate, stimulate, implement and evaluate transitions? Which tools are adequate to enhance the competences of the diversity of actors involved in transition processes? And which tools and instruments still have to be developed in the near future? Is it possible to develop a generic steering model for influencing these societal transformation processes? |
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| Modelling Sustainable Development |
| Author: Grosskurth, Jasper
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| Co-Author(s): Dale S. Rothman |
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| Institutional Affiliation: International Centre for Integrative Studies (ICIS) |
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| Panel Title: How to Improve the Empirical Base for Integrated Global Change Research? |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Understanding the dynamics of sustainability is crucial for achieving it. If one defines sustainability as the balanced development of its three domains (economic, environmental, social), one can see that some scientists have tried since the early 1970's to analyse the dynamics by modelling them. These models have booked mixed degrees of success within the scientific world and in their wider societal context.
In this paper we take stock of the attempts to model sustainability in a wide sense of the concept during the last three decades. We describe the models, the contexts that lead to their development and take a look at the impact the models had. We take into account the technique and method used, the kind of output the models deliver and the input they require, the level of openness of the model, the time horizon, the geographical coverage and resolution, the level of horizontal and vertical integration, and past applications of the models. Furthermore we evaluate each of the models based on a set of criteria.
Based on this inventory we discuss the (not so evident) usefulness of models for the analysis of sustainability in general. Criteria for the usefulness are to what degree the relevant questions have been answered in whether the model output reached those outside the academic world. We also discuss the applied techniques and methods, their empirical basis, and their general and specific strengths and weaknesses. In a concluding note we present ideas for future improvements and much needed research in the field.
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| Sustainable Development in the Netherlands: an integrated analysis |
| Author: Grosskurth, Jasper
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| Institutional Affiliation: International Centre for Integrative Studies (ICIS), Maastricht University |
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| Panel Title: Integrated Assessment for Sustainable Development |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Sustainable Development is a complex and dynamic co-evolutionary process involving social, environmental and economic capital. A necessary condition for achieving sustainable development is a sound understanding of the fundamental sustainability related dynamics by scientists and major societal actors.
In this paper, we present the applications of the Qualitative System Approach (QSA) approach to regional sustainable development in the Dutch province of Limburg and in the Netherlands as a whole. The QSA method implies a shift in focus away from indicators of (un-)sustainability (symptoms) towards the underlying dynamics that shape those issues, that the indicators are often hoped to capture (systemic issues).
The first step in the participatory research trajectory of a QSA application is the mapping out of the regionally sustainability related capital in the format of a conceptual model of qualitative stocks and flows. Subsequently the system is thoroughly analysed using extended network analysis software, taking into account additional information for each stock and flow, such as uncertainties, spatial distribution and relevant actors, and based on criteria, such as policy relevance, available expertise and quantifyability.
The result is a transparent interpretation and representation of the complex information that clarifies the systemic role of each stock and flow that allows the intuitive identification, evaluation and communication of policy levers and strategies, and that facilitates the choices between strategy options, taking into account different stakeholders. Combined with stock related indicators, the QSA approach delivers a useful basis for the formulation of transparent policy-relevant and demand driven quantitative models and thus bridges the gap between qualitative and quantitative analysis.
Most important with respect to policy action is the fact, that the QSA approach is fully embedded in the long-term planning procedures of regional governance structures, while simultaneously providing guidelines and benchmarks for short- and medium-term decision making.
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| Adaptive Capacity and Human Cognition |
| Author: Grothmann, Torsten
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| Co-Author(s): Anthony Patt |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research |
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| Panel Title: Adaptive Capacity: Towards a Useful Theory |
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| Paper Link: docs/grothmann.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| Adaptive capacity is driven by the decisions of people, either acting to protect themselves, or to protect others for whom they are responsible. To understand why people may make decisions that are maladaptive?which to an outside observer, or even the same decision-maker at a later point in time, appear unwise?it makes sense to build a theory of adaptive capacity based on our understanding of the decision-making process. Two disciplinary perspectives offer guidance: environmental psychology and behavior economics. Within environmental psychology, the emphasis has been on the factors that shape both our perception of environmental risk and the decision to take action to respond to that perception. Within behavioral economics, the emphasis has been on how such perceptions, in the course of decision-making, lead to choices at odds with economics? rational actor theory.
We propose insights into what factors influence people?s perception of the environmental risk: their degree of exposure to the risk and their experience with the event in the past, as well as a number of heuristics people use to estimate future likelihood, often erroneously. Next, we suggest a number of factors that influence people?s decision to respond to the risk, and what response to take: their feelings about the efficacy and cost of action; and their beliefs about the responsibility of government versus individual action; treating present costs as qualitatively different from future ones; opting to take the first practical choice they think of (satisficing) rather than seeking out the best alternative (optimizing); and taking inconsistent approaches with respect to risk and uncertainty. To support these ideas, we draw off of two very different case studies. The first examines the decisions of eastern German property owners to protect themselves from river flooding. The second examines the decisions of Zimbabwean farmers to take steps to mitigate the effects of forecasted drought. Finally, we present some policy guidelines: maladaptive decisions to watch out for, the factors that cause them, and potential ways of avoiding them. |
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| Challenges Ahead: Stabilizing Resource Use Rights and Other Sustainability Incentives in the Philippine Community-Based Forest Management |
| Author: Guiang, Ernesto
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| Institutional Affiliation: Philippine Environmental Governance Project |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Challenges Ahead: Stabilizing Resource Use Rights and Other Sustainability
Incentives in the Philippine Community-Based Forest Management
-In 1995, the Philippines officially adopted Community-Based Forest Management (CBFM) as the strategy for sustainable forest management to put 'social fences' in open access forests and forest lands. CBFM has responded to the issue of the state as being the biggest 'absentee landlord' by recognizing de-facto resource management occupation and claims of communities, including indigenous peoples. Many expected communities to protect the remaining forest cover and provide on-site management. CBFM policies allow the issuance of tenure and resource use rights; and provide transfer rights and support systems to communities. The Community-based Forest Management Agreements (CBFMAs) and Certificate of Ancestral Domain Claims (CADCs) or Titles (CADTs) have legitimized the communities' rights with respect to the forests and forest lands upon which their livelihoods depend. All the major rhetorics of CBFM have been put in place.
-The first ten years of CBFM was deemed to be a success, covering more than 5 million hectares. Today, many supporters are questioning the adequacy and soundness of operational policies, incentives and support systems with respect to maintaining or even increasing forest cover, supplying the country's need for food and fiber, and addressing upland poverty. These areas are either reforested, rehabilitated with agroforestry species, grasslands that are becoming expansion area of upland agriculture, productive residual and old-growth forests, and multiple-use and buffer zones of protected areas and watershed reservations. This resource variability makes CBFM implementation an environmental governance challenge, especially on major tension areas, such as:
(1) The state's insistence to regulate activities and resource use of communities even in planted forests;
(2) The 'increasing transaction costs' in getting approval and permits for the communities forest harvesting rights;
(3) Re-alignment of the state's existing support systems to address needs of communities and LGUs rather than commercial clients and influential politicians; and
(4) Crafting, stabilizing and ensuring adequate incentive systems that would enable communities to protect and develop their forests and forest lands instead of them carrying the burden of forests and forest land management. |
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| Plenary Presenter: Governance of Pollution Issues |
| Author: Guimaraes, Roberto
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| Institutional Affiliation: null |
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| Panel Title: Plenary: Governance of Pollution Issues |
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| Paper Link: docs/Guimaraes.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| No abstract available. |
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| Regime inter-linkages in biotechnology governance |
| Author: Gupta, Aarti
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| Institutional Affiliation: Transparency International |
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| Panel Title: Institutional Dimensions of Global Environmental Change: Fit Interplay and Scale |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| The paper analyses an evolving global governance architecture for safe trade and use of biotechnology products, in particular the interplay between environmental regimes (the Convention on Biological Diversity, the Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety) and components of the trade regime (the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (SPS) Agreement and the Trade-Related Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPs) Agreement). The interplay between the rules and norms of these global regimes has enormous implications for sustainable biotechnology uptake and safe use worldwide, yet it has been little researched. This paper addresses this critical issue of regime interplay through analysing how these multilateral rule-making fora vary in their mandates, norms and regulatory mechanisms, and exploring the extent to which they negate or bolster each other in governing safe transnational flows of biotechnology products. The paper argues that the emerging global governance architecture for biotechnology is fragmented, in that it addresses biotechnology trade and safe use issues in different global institutional contexts, governed by potentially contradictory norms. This points to a global governance gap in this area. The analysis provides the basis for subsequent research into the equally critical issue of scale, whereby the implications of a global biotechnology governance gap for safe and sustainable use of biotechnology at national and local levels can be explored. |
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| Assessing the Effectiveness of Biodiversity Conservation in India |
| Author: Gupta, Shalini
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| Institutional Affiliation: Clark University |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| This research analyses the effectiveness of the network of conservation areas in the entire sub-continent of India. The analysis determines effectiveness in terms of ability to preserve biodiversity. This study uses available biophysical datasets to build national scale simulation models of forest change in India as 'what if' tools for national and international level decision makers concerned about forest management in the region. The method has been developed using the landuse change model GEOMOD to portray scenarios such as 'Business as Usual', 'Perfect Protection', Suitability for Development and Suitability for Conservation by taking various indices of development and conservation values into consideration. Since the main question is to assess the effectiveness of the network of conservation areas, it is insufficient to assess biodiversity alone. Hence we consider leakage, which is the process whereby the effect of a conservation project is to displace the disturbance to a location outside the protected area. Given the phenomenon of leakage, we conclude that conservation is most effective when it follows a strategy of protection for the regions of rich biodiversity and not a strategy of protection of locations that are most threatened. The data used in this research are unique and this is the first time there will be an assessment of the entire sub-continent taking leakage into consideration. This method assesses the effectiveness of biodiversity conservation projects and could also be used to assess carbon offset projects as called for in the Kyoto protocol. The method is a tool to help decision makers understand what factors drive land-cover and land-use change in India and to determine whether development policies enhance the welfare of India whilst minimizing undesirable or unacceptable environmental impacts. |
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| Lack of Social Capital and Failure in Natural Resource Management in the Developing Countries |
| Author: Haladjian, Sylvia
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| Institutional Affiliation: Saint Joseph University, Faculty of Human Sciences (Lebanon); International Sociological Association, Research Committee on Sociology of Work and Research Committee on Environment and Society. |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Failure in natural resource management in the developing countries has one of the main human negative impacts on global environmental change.
Traditional societies in the developing countries suffer from a lack of social capital: mutual and institutional trusts are largely proved to be deficient. This constitutes a serious obstacle to efficient natural resource management, since collective action - to be undertaken by both civil society and decision makers - is one of the most important conditions of priority setting and policymaking.
More precisely, causes of failure in natural resource management in the developing countries are mostly related to the weakness of national institutions, especially educational institutions (lack of knowledge on natural resources and lack of awareness on environmental issues among the population and the decision makers), juridical institutions (difficulties to apply existing laws, mainly in fighting corruption, and to implement new laws able to respond to real needs in natural resource protection and efficient utilization) and political institutions (lack of experience and absence of research use in policymaking). Therefore, failure in natural resource management on the national level leads to a failure on the local level since these institutional dimensions contribute to making the local participation in natural resource management harder and harder, especially when civil society is kept away (knowing that education does not provide civil society with the necessary knowledge and awareness in that respect, laws often do not recognize the right of civil society in decision making and politics do not establish the needed framework in which interactions between civil society and public power can be facilitated). Furthermore, failure in natural resource management on the national level hinders also natural resource management on the regional and global levels, in the sense that it constitutes an obstacle for any regional or international intervention on the national scene. |
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| Human Dimensions of Global Change Research in Southwestern Kansas |
| Author: Harrington, Lisa M.B.
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| Co-Author(s): John A. Harrington, Jr., Max Lu, Douglas G. Goodin, David E. Kromm, Stephen E. White |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Department of Geography
Kansas State University |
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| Panel Title: Methodologies for Assessing Vulnerability and Sustainability |
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| Paper Link: docs/Harrington.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| Rural southwestern Kansas has received attention as a part of two major research projects oriented toward gaining greater understanding of the interrelationship between human activities, land use/land cover, sustainability, and global climate change. These multi-institution projects, Global Change in Local Places (GCLP) and Human-Environment Research Observatory (HERO) have each included 'local areas' within various regions of the U.S. The Kansas site includes three regional centers (Liberal, Dodge City, and Garden City) within a larger and more rural 19 county area known as the High Plains-Ogallala HERO. For this region, agriculturally-based land use, land cover, and economic conditions are the key feature. Reliance on groundwater resources has been strong, and represents both an adaptation to marginal conditions for agricultural production and a potential source of vulnerability with respect to resource depletion. Research to date has included an examination of socio-economic drivers of change in the area, attitudes of decision-makers and the general public about global climate change, an assessment of local natural, social, and technological vulnerability, and major sustainability/adaptability concerns in the area. Approaches have been both qualitative and quantitative, with recognition of the need for information based on local understandings that are difficult to quantify, as well as numerical trends related to measurable changes. Research methods have included use of remote sensing techniques to assess land cover change, data visualization through statistical and GIS analysis of government data, mailed questionnaires, unstructured interviews, consideration of policy changes and effects, and application of groundwater depletion as an analog for broader change. This paper represents an overview of ongoing research and research findings related to environmental change concerns, including the social and economic environment, in southwestern Kansas. Change itself, vulnerability and resiliency in the face of change, and change-driving factors all are critical concerns. |
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| Good Governance: Institutional Change and Resilience in Less Developed Countries |
| Author: Harrison, Neil E.
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| Institutional Affiliation: The Sustainable Development Institute
University of Wyoming |
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| Panel Title: Scientific Knowledge, Controversy, and Assessment in Global-Change Regimes |
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| Paper Link: docs/Harrison.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| This paper is a part of the Institutional Resilience Project, a multi-year research effort endorsed by the Institutional Dimensions of Global Environmental Change that uses complex systems theory (CST) to investigate the qualities of those institutions that optimize resilience in poor countries and communities.
The paper first reviews the literature on community response to multiple and rapid changes in socio-economic and natural environments in which only the resilient survive and prosper. Rich countries and communities are robust and can use a wide range of tools and resources to protect themselves. From analysis of various research threads, the paper shows that in poor countries and communities resilience principally emanates from the permissiveness or flexibility of their institutional arrangements: the incentives they give to innovative individual behaviors and collective adaptation and the extent to which they can change their processes without changing their social functions.
Because CSTs model dynamic bottom-up emergent processes and permit computer simulation of complex social patterns through the interaction of rules ('institutions'), they are better than ('simple') cause-effect theories for assessing institutional formation and change. Adapting concepts and ideas from natural, life, and social science CSTs, the paper develops a comprehensive ontology of complex social systems and a descriptive model of 'institutional resilience.' This model shows how agents' internal models of reality (comprised of desires, 'causal beliefs' that generate strategy, and 'principled beliefs' that determine right and wrong) interact recursively with institutions so that institutions both respond to agents' internal models and mold them.
Finally, the paper shows how computer simulations of social systems under stress can hone research questions, refine hypotheses, and frame empirical investigations. This requires consideration of several epistemological issues including the validity of simulations and the role of authority in social systems. The paper develops an epistemological foundation for the use of computer simulations to generate falsifiable hypotheses through later planned empirical testing and outlines the research methods, measures, and indicators that may be employed.
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| Stochastic modelling of bioenergy vs. carbon sinks at the global scale |
| Author: Hedenus, Fredrik
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| Co-Author(s): Cristian Azar |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Chalmers University of Technology
Physical resource theory |
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| Panel Title: Nutrient Cycles and Climate Change |
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| Paper Link: docs/Hedenus.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| The global emissions of carbon dioxide tend to raise global average surface temperatures. The severity of the greenhouse effect is, however, uncertain. Afforestation may reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration in two ways. Either by establishing long rotation (lr-) forests, which sequester carbon and work mainly as carbon sinks, or by establishing short rotation (sr-) forests that are primarily used for energy purposes and therefore replace fossil fuels. The goal of the study is to analyze and compare the cost-efficiency between sr-forests and lr-forests when it comes to reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. The uncertainty of the greenhouse effect is considered, therefore the allowed level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is made stochastic. The study is performed by solving and analyzing a stochastic linear optimization model with representations of both the global energy system as well as afforestation options. The results suggests that sr-forests are the most cost-efficient option in the tropics and the boreal zone. In the temperate zone lr-forests are cost-efficient during a transient phase. As the carbon tax rises above 140 USD/ton C sr-forests are cost-efficient in all climate zones.
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| Media communication and environmental risks: the case of climate change and coastal protection |
| Author: Heinrichs, Harald
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| Co-Author(s): Hans Peter Peters |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Research Center Jülich
Program Group: Humans, Environment, Technology |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Within an ongoing project about "Climate Change in the Public Sphere" we analyze communication processes and patterns of interpretation of global climate change and its risks for coastal zones. Since mass media plays a central role for the public communication of (abstract) issues like climate change, we conducted three interconnected empirical studies to grasp the whole communication chain from information sources, to media production up to the audience:
1. We monitored the media coverage, employing a sample of national and regional newspapers, tv-stations and radio-stations about global change and coastal protection for 1 ¿ years. Over 800 articles, 90 TV and 40 Radio broadcastings about the topic were gathered for content analysis.
2. Based on the sample of the media coverage, we interviewed over 100 experts (scientists as well as NGO and other professionals) working in the respected field and quoted in the coverage, and 75 journalists, who have interviewed the experts and written the article.
3. Finally we conducted a quasi-experimental study to analyze the media reception of media consumers at three locations at the north sea coast with 180 intervieews in total.
This three-step-study contributes to a better understanding of the processes of meaning construction about environmental risks and its interpretation and (re-)contextualization in public communication. At the Open Meeting Conference in Brazil 2001 we presented the conceptual framework and the design of this project (Heinrichs, H., Peters, H.P.: Climate Change in the Public Sphere. How to study "glocal" issues? An analysis of public communication about (global) climate change and (local) coastal protection). Now we will present some important results and argue, that better knowledge about the media related socio-cultural processes may help to improve environmental risk communication and by that support risk management and sustainability governance. Next to socio-economic and socio-political knowledge, socio-cultural knowledge is needed to better understand the culture-specific interpretations of global change and the transition to sustainability. |
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| Acquisition of the Certificate of ISO14001 in Japan and its Valuation of the Market |
| Author: Hibiki, Akira
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| Co-Author(s): Masato Higashi, Akimi Matsuba |
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| Institutional Affiliation: National Institute for Environmental Studies |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| The market value of the firm, which is sum of the value of the stock and the debt of the firm, can be disaggregated into its tangible and intangible assets. Tangible assets consist of the replacement value of property, plant and equipment, cash, inventory and so on. Intangible assets are valued based on resources like patents, trademarks, brand names, good image of the firm, factors like loss of the reputation, bad image due to crime and a lot of pollution etc, which raise or decline the firm's profit over the return on its tangible assets. So if the market expects that the environmentally sound behavior of the firm like acquisition of the certificates of ISO14001 will contribute to reduction of the risk of the future liability of pollution, to creation the good image of the firm, etc., the value of intangible assets are increased by acquisition of the certification. This would make the firms finance more easily and encourage them to be certificated. The purpose of this study is to examine whether the market values acquisition of the certificate of ISO14001. For this purpose, we estimate Tobin's q by using the data of the financial performance of the publicly traded Japanese firms in the manufacturing industry that belong to the 1st section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. To avoid self-selection bias in the estimation, we use a two-stage technique. In the first stage, a probabilistic choice equation for decision to acquire the certificate is estimated by logit model. In the second stage, we use this predicted probability as an explanatory variable in regression analysis of Tobin's q. After controlling for self-selection bias and the effect of a number of variables on firm-level financial performance, we find that acquisition of ISO14001 has a positive effect on the intangible-asset value of the firms. |
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| International standard for evaluating environmental education and research |
| Author: Higano, Yoshiro
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| Institutional Affiliation: Tsukuba University |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Like the environment itself, environmental education is complex, requiring multi-info applied at multi-levels, using multi-media, and targeting multi-stakeholders. Every potential decision that has an environmental impact - whether drinking a cup of water at the micro level, or targets for global CO2 reductions - has an element of education and awareness-building built into it.
In order to draw out and distil the essence of environmental education, it is critical for us to understand and apply codes, standards and conventions on environmental education. This will enable us to benchmark, evaluate and assess actions in environmental education - and set up an overall framework within which this can be undertaken.
A number of international conventions and standards related to environmental education and research exist, spearheaded by UNESCO, UNEP and other international organizations and networks. These target a range of global, regional, national and local issues.
This paper will make a critical analysis of the existing conventions and standards, and make recommendations for future action. It will also present various environmental policies and laws/regulations that require comprehensive environmental education for their effective implementation. |
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| Comprehensive framework for city evaluation on sustainable compact city development |
| Author: Hijioka, Yasuaki
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| Co-Author(s): Hideo Harasawa, Shiro Kawai, Yusuke Mitsuoka, Rieko Nakao |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Social & Environmental Systems Division
National Institute for Environmental Studies
16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8506 Japan
tel:+81-29-850-2961 / fax:+81-29-850-2960 |
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| Panel Title: Sustainable Compact City and its Facilitation |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Cities have been leading role in economic development, but rapid growth of city area and its economy induced by huge energy consumption caused population explosion, traffic jams, air pollution, heat island phenomena, resulting in degradation of urban environment. Increase of energy consumption has also accelerated global warming.
In order to establish sustainable city development, it is necessary to comprehend its characteristics quantitatively and clarify the key issues for improving urban environmental degradation and retaining comfortable life quality. Comprehensive framework for city evaluation considering its profile transition from past to present is essential and useful to examine future ideal city configuration. The objectives of this study are as follows:
- Investigating past researches evaluating methodology for various urban functions and activities on sustainable city development and examining innovative viewpoints of city evaluation considering concepts of compact city as a sustainable city
- Constructing a city profile database, developing comprehensive framework for city evaluation considering environmental aspects and compactness and examining compact city characteristics, advantage and possibilities of achievement on macro perspective integrating social, economical and environmental index.
The database contains social, economic and environmental parameters such as population, population density, gross regional product, water supply and sanitation coverage, mortality, life expectancy, air pollution concentration (TSS, NOx, SOx), electricity consumption, commuter time and distance, and so on.
The preliminary regression analysis on compactness of the city using statistical data showed the results as follows:
- In order to establish comfortable life environment, economic power is necessary to some extent
- In order to establish sustainable city focused on energy use, it is necessary to restrict population in city
- In order to reduce air pollutant and alleviant severe traffic condition, high density is necessary to some extent but excess high density leads rapid increase of pollutant load and serious traffic condition.
In addition to above socio-economic analysis, we developed an indicator to deal with city size and its population density. This indicator was applied to some cities in developed and developing countries, and it can indicate transition of cities in time and compare cities in each country.- |
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| Water Resources Management in the Eastern European Countries 'Necessity and Problems |
| Author: Hristov, Todor
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| Co-Author(s): Vania Ioncheva, Lindsay Patel |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Institute of Water Problems at the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: docs/hristov.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| Bulgaria is poor of water resources and has small financial investments available to improve water quality. The interdependence between available water resources, sustainable environmental, and the development of human society is becoming more and more obvious.
Bulgaria, as a country in a period of transition, has to prepare and apply water management plans, which will increase the quantity of water available for water supply, and satisfy the other needs of water, while maintaining ecological equilibrium in the basin.
A water management plan by basin must include all measures for the improvement of water supply and water quality, while balancing the financial capabilities of the country and the invested funds by the EU.
Elaboration on these water management plans cannot be done without a comprehensive analysis of the actual situation of the water resources, economic conditions, and the environment. The Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) is an approach that gives us the possibility to integrate the needs of the two main operating systems in a given basin - nature and society.
Today many people speak about this approach, however, there is currently no practice in place. It is very important to emphasize the fact that water management plans are the final phase of IWRM. To create these plans it is necessary to pass through the profound analysis of the actual water resources, society and environmental development. All of this must be supported by a mine of information. In other words, we need Decision Support Systems (DSS's), in the area of the water resource management, in order to unify all these requirements.
From this point of view, the Bulgarian practice in water resources management will be presented in this paper. Water legislation and its conformity with the EU water directives will be discussed. For example, the Geographical Water Resources Information and Assessment System 'GeoWateRIAS' will be briefly demonstrated, and attempts to simulate different scenarios for water quality improvement by the DSS "REKA" will be described. A review of the weak points in Bulgaria's water policy will also be made. |
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| Biodiversity in a global change and multi-level governance perspective |
| Author: Hufty, Marc
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| Institutional Affiliation: Associate professor
Graduate Institute of Development Studies
Geneva
Switzerland |
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| Panel Title: Biodiversity and Environmental Mitigation |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Hypothesis 1. An international biodiversity regime (IBR) regulates most of the issues related to biodiversity. The regime is based on a co-operative alliance between holders of access rights to genetic resources, holders of knowledge, technology, and financial resources. It is global. Many questions remain unanswered, regarding the regime's effectiveness, regimes overlaps, the links between international, domestic and local politics, and the ways norms are being created, transmitted and implemented between different governance levels. This is our main focus.
Hypothesis 2. At the national and local levels, who participates in biodiversity governance and policy-making? On which models do they base their discourses and actions? What are the concrete effects of their actions? The global governance of biodiversity is influenced by an epistemic community, composed of a professional elite, who dominates this regulatory and normative process. Seen from Bourdieu's social field perspective, power relations within this elite constitute an explanatory variable for the agreements and conflicts over theoretical claims and norms formulation and implementation. The regime is informed by the power structure in force among its stakeholders. Formal norms and rules are influenced by theoretical models elaborated by experts, policy-makers, and their underlying beliefs.
Hypothesis 3. The IBR and the international development aid regime are intertwined. Aid for conservation is provided mainly by development aid institutions, and both regimes function on the basis of policy-base conditionality: normative intervention at the national level (aid-driven legal changes, and programmes), and administrative intervention on a daily basis (monitoring of implementation, and specific projects). What are the concrete appearances of IBR interaction with the aid regime in the field? The present shape given to the state (good governance, decentralisation, local participation') reproduces a dependant legal expertise explained by the extension of aid towards administrative and legal reforms, and an increasing importance of the norms negotiated at the intergovernmental level (multilateral treaties and organisations). As an example, local management of resources is presented as the ultimate solution for a sustainable management. But it is the result of an normativel process at the regime level, and of specific networks and it is often met by local resistance.
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| Land use problems in Bangladesh |
| Author: Huq, Sheikh
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| Institutional Affiliation: Professor of Geography and Environment and Dean Faculty of Social Sciences, Jahangirnagar University, Savar, Dhaka-1342, Bangladesh. |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| The need for an effective national land use planning for Bangladesh derives from three major rationales: (a) productivity rationale: Since land remains the most important natural resource and its optimum utilization constitutes a key national policy, (b) agricultural land protection rationale: The resource base for agriculture of the country has been drastically shrinking, and (c) environment-ecology rationale: Unplanned forest depletion, plant nutrient deficiency and imbalance, topsoil depletion, water logging, salinity intrusion, ill planned alteration to land-water balance, overexploitation of land and water resources etc. lead to environmental degradation and diminish the prospect for sustainable agricultural development. The conflict between the need for increased agricultural production and the need for more land for non-agricultural purposes is becoming increasingly serious. There are five important areas of conflicting land use in the rural areas: (a) agriculture versus shrimp and capture fisheries; (b) agriculture versus livestock; (c) forest land versus shrimp and capture fisheries; (d) agriculture versus settlements; (e) agriculture versus brickfields. There exist some laws and regulations on land use but there is no comprehensive land use policy in the country. This paper attempts to assess the nature of the problems associated with current land use practices and put forward some suggestions for an improved land use planning and policy of the country. This paper feels that there should be national guidelines in land use. Introduction of laws and regulations and land use zones may be effective for land use planning of the country. It is also understood that an integrated planning for land use is needed for sustainable agricultural development for a densely populated and land scarce country like Bangladesh. |
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| Counteractions for urban heat island in regional autonomies: Activities in councils of MoE, Japan |
| Author: Ichinose, Toshiaki
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| Co-Author(s): T. Mikami, K. Niitsu, Y. Hirano |
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| Institutional Affiliation: National Institute for Environmental Studies |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: docs/Ichinose.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| Monitoring of urban heat island (UHI) phenomena were performed by the authors group during three years (1997-1999) in Asian three cities (Tokyo, Shanghai and Bangkok) and guidelines for urban planning in the future were drawn considering the data taken in the monitoring and their numerical simulation with climate models. These results showed a basic routine on urban climate analysis (evaluation of anthropogenic heat, building structure and vegetation coverage in viewpoint of urban thermal environment, and recommendation for urban planning process) with its availability. After this project, Ministry of Environment (MoE) started making systematic counteractions against UHI in Japanese regional autonomies regarding UHI as one of air pollution by heat. The authors project was one of its triggers.
Nowadays a viewpoint of thermal environmental protection in urban planning process is still an unfamiliar concept for Japanese urban planners. But thermal stress in summer is one of the strong interests of many Japanese citizens. MoE has organized several councils on UHI problems and published reports on counteractions for them. These activities have brought the concept of mitigation of urban thermal pollution as a new viewpoint to urban planning process in regional autonomies in Japan. The authors, as members of these councils, discussed on desirable counteractions for UHI in Japanese and Asian regional autonomies and evaluations on the individual counteractions, based on discussions and results of these councils. |
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| Improving Scientific Assessment of Carbon Sinks |
| Author: Ishii, Atsushi
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| Institutional Affiliation: Climate Change Research Project
National Institute for Environmental Studies |
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| Panel Title: Institutional Dimensions of Global Climate Change |
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| Paper Link: docs/ishii.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| Scientific concepts of Carbon Sinks in the Kyoto Protocol (KP), and Critical Loads on Acidification (CLs) are compared to draw lessons for better scientific assessment of Sinks. In the short term perspective, Sinks will remain politically sensitive, have inherent incentive for unsound reporting and be surrounded by potentially high uncertainty. On the other hand, CLs had a built-in mechanism for sound reporting; even so the CLs data underwent verification by advisory scientists. Therefore, a third-party verification system on the accounting of Sinks may have to be established directly under the KP to incorporate the right incentives for sound reporting, and make the uncertainties of Sinks manageable. In the longer term perspective, lessons for better sinks assessment is that turning the assessment's focus from Partial Carbon Accounting to Full Carbon Accounting, enriching and using it as a 'boundary object' will facilitate scientists' participation in, communication between scientific community and policymakers on, and scientific integrity of future sinks assessments. These are important because, to date, more research and knowledge is needed to mature the concept of Sinks for diplomatic use. Aside scientific and policy benefits, FCA can also be justified from the perspective of Sociology of Scientific Knowledge. |
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| The social, Economic and Environmental Impacts of the Sand Dams of Kitui, Kenya |
| Author: Isika, Mutua
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| Institutional Affiliation: Department of Sociology, University of Nairobi. |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Kenya is among a group of countries faced with inadequate renewable resources, a problem acute in arid and semi-arid parts.Communities living in arid and semi-arid lands have limitations in accessing water for domestic and Production. During drought, communities result to charcoal burning as a survival mechanism resulting to serious environmental damage. SASOL, founded in 1990, assists Kitui communities to address household and production water scarcity through the sand dam technology.
To date, 320 sand dams have been constructed in Kitui. Globally, this project has the highest number of sand dams. The dense construction adapted in Kitui regenerates ephemeral rivers run all year long. The vegetation along the rivers is green through out the year as a result of surface discharge. New plant and animal species are found along the rivers.
The story of sand dams in Kitui is an example of positive reaction to drought caused misery and distress. Since 1990, the communities have taken positive actions to assure their survival by reversing the negative results of drought by constructing sand dams, conserving soil, producing horticultural crops thus ensuring food security and by planting trees. With increased quantity of water, the local people grow kales (sukuma wiki), tomatoes, onions, improved varieties of mangoes, bananas, sugarcane, plant trees and keep bees. Fishing which was uncommon in the area, is a new economic activity. This is the way to fight poverty.
The impact of the sand dams is not just in terms of income and health. Sociologically organizing for the dam construction has led communities to improve leadership, more systematic community organization and prioritization of development, including identification of inter-relationships between sectors. People are now thinking of managing the sand dams at catchment basis so that efforts one communities are not/do not destroy/destroyed by another community for example through use of chemicals or cutting down of trees. Sanitation has also improved. Key in this is the construction of toilets.
This paper therefore explores the social, economic and environmental Impacts of the sand dams of Kitui and the potential of replicating the technology to other similar areas. |
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| Compact City and Local Governments' Strategy: Emphasis on the Household Waste Management for Establishing a Recycling-based Society |
| Author: Ito, Masakazu
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| Co-Author(s): Kiyoshi Okamura, Aki Suwa, Jun Izumi, Tetsuo Kato |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Nagoya Sangyo University |
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| Panel Title: Sustainable Compact City and its Facilitation |
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| Paper Link: docs/ito.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| Cities have been identified as the core of the sustainability, as their metabolisms ultimately stress their surrounding ecosystems. The research identifies cities as the systems that pose significant threats, by creating resource imbalances with their hinterlands. The purpose of this research is to examine the relationship between industrial ecosystem and the emergence of compact city. The research consider community awareness as a key element of sustainable compact community, and pay a particular attention to how the community awareness and industrial structural change react each other.
It investigates the issue of city and the material cycle, taking an example of household waste. A series of surveys were carried out to collect Japanese local governments' strategies on household waste management. In the first round survey (November 2001), questionnaires were sent to 3,229 local governments (municipal and parish level), and intensive interview survey was carried out in the second round survey (February and March 2002)
The first round survey identifies the major waste management strategies taken by the local governments on household waste (e.g. separate waste collection, biological waste composting), and on industrial waste (e.g. waste disposal levy, regulatory obligation to reduce waste). Through the second round survey, the research discovers notable types of strategic directions observable among the chosen local communities in Japan. There are two major policy emphasises to develop sustainable city metabolism: 1) community awareness enhancement and 2) waste volume control, while "bottom-up" action forms the principle for the former case, with the "top-down" action is the norm for the latter case.
The typology of the local community strategies, identified by the research, is a key to analyse the potential of the community to develop industrial ecosystem: the bottom-up approach has a gradual, but indispensable influence to form the "social motivation" for establishing community waste management system and industry, whereas the top-down approach often has a limited impact on their substantial development. |
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| Urban Hybridisation and Peri-Urban Regions in Large Third World Cities |
| Author: Järvelä, Marja
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| Co-Author(s): Susanna Myllylä, Eva-Marita Rinne |
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| Institutional Affiliation: University of Jyväskylä, Finland |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: docs/jarvela.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| Modes of urban hybridisation offer a fruitful approach to contemporary urban development debate of sustainable development. Concepts such as semi-urban and peri-urban living environment have been widely used, but often based on the differentiation on the conventional dichotomies such as 'rural and urban' or 'traditional and modern'. Therefore, our aim is to focus on the rising modes of urban hybridises that tend to balance between 'traditional' and modern' social realities and resources, including basic infrastructure and services on the community level. There can be found numerous features reflecting (urban) hybridity, such as the rise of informal cities and their variegated structures; city morphologies that combine indigenous and 'alien' elements; the emergence of new spatial patterns that have borderzones as 'centers of gravity' mixed economies; and, the emergence of new organisational forms and urban environmental practices.
Observations from African and Asian countries are presented (Lagos, Cairo and Delhi) and interpreted in the light of identified urban hybridises. The data comes from fieldwork studies conducted in Lagos, Nigeria (1998 and 2001) where a qualitative methodological approach was chosen including in-depth interviews, Focus Group Discussions and participatory observations among Yoruba women and men. In Cairo and Delhi (1994, 1997 and 1998), personal observations and a number of in-depth interviews with public authorities, professionals, donors and especially NGO's and other grassroot actors consisted the data.
Issues of interest include questions such as what are the daily routines of livelihood and sanitation in a shantytown, e.g., how the sanitation systems, e.g., avoidance of dirt and the 'order of things' are organised in the community, and how the perceptions on social and concrete basic infrastructure communicate with the mixed and hybrid urban culture. Results imply e.g. that urban and rural features of everyday life may be combined in flexible and creative ways. This adds to the basic livelihood resources in peri-urban regions and low-income housing areas. |
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| Delegating the responsibility for environmental transitions - are innovations in renewable energy a system, policy or market responsibility? |
| Author: Jørgensen, Ulrik
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| Institutional Affiliation: Dept. of Manufacturing Engineering and Management, Section for Innovation and Sustainability, Technical University of Denmark
Building 307 |
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| Panel Title: Transitions Towards Sustainability: How to induce them? (IHDP IT Session 3) |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Although quite common ideological arguments are brought forward in the liberalisation of the energy supply and distribution sectors all over Europe, the policies and transition paths in this major change are rather different.
The system changes in the last decade in Danish energy supply includes both technologies, management system, regulatory measures, and the creation of new structures of influence and ownership. These changes have been part of an overall transformation of the energy supply system to become more sustainable, but they are all very vulnerable to changes in policies. The liberalisation of the energy supply sector is at best neutral but more likely to push the sector in a less sustainable direction as it marginalises the role of new energy technologies and environmental concerns by inviting powerful economy driven actors to become the main players in this arena. While technological innovation has been the core of energy policies hitherto, the new market regime has a different focus. It is therefore important to identify how technological renewals and experiments will be taken up or left aside under these new conditions.
The limitations also include the responsibility for energy savings. While technical changes in energy usage are projected to have saving potentials - even without major changes in technologies and systems - of more than 50% of consumption. The responsibility for realising energy savings in the future is not well defined.
The institutional and economic constructs to which system changes is delegated is crucial for the realisation of the climate policies and while most European and other governments seem to be searching for temporary and short term efficient solutions to the Kyoto measures. The academic, disciplinary support for these institutions is also important as they play a role by legitimising and in the establishment of the sustainability discourse. The paper will highlight these institutional constructs and their severe limitation in solving the problems that have been delegated to them. The need for a critical assessment and a re-construction of an environmentally responsible technology policy and renewed public engagement in this field is highlighted.
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| Vulnerability of India to Extreme Climate Events: The Case of Cyclonic Storms |
| Author: K.S., Kavi Kumar
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| Institutional Affiliation: Madras School of Economics
Gandhi Mandapam Road
Chennai - 600 025
Tamil Nadu |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| With growing concern about the manifestation of climate change proper understanding of vulnerability due to present day extreme climate events gains importance. Vulnerability assessment and knowledge on adaptation (and mal-adaptation) practices pursued to cope with extreme climate events would provide crucial inputs in formulating appropriate adaptation policies for future. The present study focuses on cyclonic storms that ravage the Indian coasts (especially the East coast) frequently.
The concepts of 'vulnerability' and 'adaptation' are now the focal point of climate change research and policy. While vulnerability assessment is not a new concept in fields like natural hazards, poverty and human security, it is a relatively new concept in the climate change research. Unlike in the field of economic or social planning in which quantifiable indicators are mostly well developed and applied, policy experts in the field of climate change are still exploring the possibilities of defining appropriate and reliable indicators of vulnerability. The present study is a contribution in that direction.
Using data on socio-economic and geographic characteristics of coastal districts (smallest administrative unit in India for which reliable data is available) along with the physical characteristics of the storms that hit these districts, the study develops district-level relative vulnerability index. This index is complemented with another index to measure relative vulnerability of coastal districts in terms of human casualties caused by storm induced surge. The results show that the districts on Eastern coast are relatively more vulnerable than those on the Western coast. The relative ranking of vulnerability remains similar across the two indices. The study also looks at various adaptation strategies that individuals and state have followed to ameliorate the adverse effects of storms in order to make policy inferences for the future.
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| Individual temperature exposures among aged people in relation to the estimated increases of heat-wave induced mortality risk due to global warming in Japan and China |
| Author: Kabuto, Michinori
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| Co-Author(s): Yasushi Honda |
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| Institutional Affiliation: National Institute for Environmental Strategies |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| A new governmental initiative for researches on global climate changes has been implemented in Japan since 2002, as part of which issues of potential health risk and adaptation were included especially in response to the 3rd IPCC report. One of the major topics in the corresponding study we just initiated is an estimation of increase of daily mortality risk among aged population as of 2090 according to a new estimation of ambient temperature for the year at the city-town-village level, for example. It is indicated that the maximum temperatures would increase up to 4+ ° compared to those in 1990 even in the northern part of Japan. In China we have also been attempting the same type of estimations and analyses.
It is needless to say, however, those risk estimations should consider individual exposures to environmental temperatures, which may vary to a large extent according to how people are spending time outdoor as well as indoor and also to how indoor temperatures are controlled. Accordingly, we have started monitoring of individual exposures to extreme temperature among aged people in 2 large cities in the north and central Japan (Sapporo and Tokyo) and 3 large cities in the north, central and south China (Harbin, Naniing and Gangzhou) for summer and winter. Indoor and outdoor temperatures have been monitored simultaneously. The HOBO LCD Temp/HR loggers (ONSET Computer Ltd.) have been used for all of the temperature measurements. Moreover, prevalence and mode of uses of air conditioners in summer and heaters in winter have been investigated with using a questionnaire. which was sent to 10,000 families randomly selected from almost half populations in Japanese, while it was interviewed for 1,200 (400 x 3) families randomly sampled in each of the 3 cities in China.
The results obtained during the 1st year will be shown, although number of subjects are small yet, and discussed in relation to needed further researches on possible impacts of global warming on mortality/health risks associated with exposures to extreme temperatures especially in Japan and China. |
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| Compact City And Developing Countries -Is Compact City Approach Appropriate as an Urban Development Policy for Cities in Developing Countries?- |
| Author: Kaji, Hideki
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| Co-Author(s): Hidehiko Kanegae, Kenichi Ishibashi, Nobuhiro Hara |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Professor of the Faculty of Policy Management,
Keio University |
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| Panel Title: Sustainable Compact City and its Facilitation |
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| Paper Link: docs/kaji.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| The United Nations forecasts that the proportion of urban population to total population in developing countries increases from 40% in the year 2000 to 50% in the year 2025, while the urban population itself increases from 2 to 3 billions persons. The sustainable urban development policy, which makes it possible to achieve maximum quality of urban life with the given resources and energy, should be vitally introduced to cities in developing countries. The quality of urban life, herewith, implies both economic product and living environment.
Thus EU has found an advantage in the compact city approach as a sustainable urban form, which is expected to achieve the above goal. Although the careful examination must still be needed in the argument that urban forms has an influence on urban sustainability, some aspects of resource and energy consumption, such as land and transportation are likely to depend on urban forms. This is the reason why EU, the group of developed countries, has paid its attention on the compact city approach, because they have given a higher priority to saving the resource and energy consumption for achieving urban sustainability.
However, unlike developed countries, the sustainable urban development policy in developing countries focuses more on ways to construct social infrastructures most efficiently, close urban rural linkage for rural people to be able to enjoy public services as well as urban people, and security of social equity. The success of the compact city policy will be measured in this term.
In this sense, the compact city approach seems to be significant argument only to cities in developed countries and at least it may not be applicable to existing mega cities in developing countries, due to lack of planning capacity. Considering, however, the case where more mega cities will appear in developing countries by the year 2025, it might be worth to be applied as a development policy to the future coming new city. This paper, thus, examines what types of urban forms are the most appropriate as a sustainable urban development policy to the cities that will be constructed from now in developing countries. |
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| Land Use/Land Cover Mapping in Application to Integrated Assessment of the Urban Environment |
| Author: Kakareka, Sergey
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| Co-Author(s): V. Khomich, T. Kukharchyk |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Institute for Problems of Natural Resources Use & Ecology, National Academy of Sciences of Belarus |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| In the paper methodological approaches to the urban environment integrated assessment and results of such investigation to a case city in Belarus with emphasize on land use/land cover mapping and its application are discussed.
It is shown that methods of urban environment state assessment are evolved comparatively well for certain media (ambient air, soils, surface and ground waters, ecosystems). But at the same time there are no generally accepted methodology of integrated assessment of urban environment. This is due to complexity of summarizing of heterogeneous indices of media conditions and the lack of generally accepted methodology of such assessments. In the process of such task fulfillment for Svetlogorsk city (Gomel Region) we have paid specific attention onto application of mapping procedures.
Svetlogorsk is an average size young industrial city with population of 75 thousands. Its growth began in the late 50s when the building of a large power plant and chemical complex have been started. Its problems are typical for such kind of industrial centres in Belarus. Integrated assessment of the city's environment was realized in a few stages:
- mapping of natural components (geology, relief, soils, vegetation etc.) and field study of their state;
- land use/land cover mapping;
- ecological mapping;
- landscape-ecological zoning;
- integrated assessment of the urban environment by landscape-ecological regions;
- risk assessment.
The electronic large-scale land use/land cover map of the city was made. It was used as the basis for ecological map of the city, which include a few thematic layers: sources of pollution, haloes of the ambient air, surface, ground waters and soils pollution, state of vegetation. According to land use/land cover features, landscape and urban planning situation the city was differentiated into landscape-ecological regions and subregions which were used as territorial units for integrated environment assessment based on environmental indices. Proposed set of ecological regions will be used in planning of the city development. |
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| Fitting institutions to fisheries co-management: the Forum of Patos Lagoon case study |
| Author: Kalikoski, Daniela
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| Co-Author(s): Marcelo Vasconcellos, Les Lavkulich |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Department of Oceanography
Federal University of Rio Grande |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: docs/Kalikoski.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| This work focuses on the human dimensions of biodiversity conservation and sustainable use of fisheries. The objective was to analyze the problem of fit of environmental institutions to the conservation of fisheries CPRs and the maintenance of artisanal fisheries in the estuary of Patos Lagoon, southern Brazil. The analysis identified problems with the definition of boundaries and rights to fisheries resources and mismatches between rules and local environmental/resource conditions which can affect the sustainability of artisanal fisheries. The driving forces of misfits showed to be associated to internal and external factors including the weak and changeable institutional arrangements, socio-economic conditions, the regime structure of governance, and individual husbandry for resources |
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| The Polycentric Transition: Strategies for Multiple-Level Environmental Policy in Asia |
| Author: Kamal, Gueye Moustapha
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| Institutional Affiliation: Institute for Global Environmental Strategies |
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| Panel Title: Transition in Environmental Governance in Asia: Policy Implications at Local and Global Levels |
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| Paper Link: docs/Kamal.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| For many decades, the Asia-Pacific region has been characterised by its centralized system of development policy, including environmental policy formulation and institution building. This pattern of development has been gradually, and in some countries drastically changed, resulting in a decrease in the power of the central state and the emergence of subnational and supranational policy processes and actors. This process has been driven by the twin forces of globalisation and localisation.
These two phenomena combined are giving birth to a process of "polycentric transition" under which environmental decision making and resource management is moving away from a system essentially led by the central government, to one in which environmental policy processes are emerging at the supranational level and at the subnational level. The polycentric transition is also occurring horizontally, leading to the emergence of new actors among civil society and business. Such a change is visible through the level and process of decision-making and the allocation of responsibility for resource and environmental management within and among countries.
The polycentric transition is related to another emerging understanding - the spatial variation of environmental problems from local, national, regional and global levels. The central government, as one level structure of governance, has been unable to drive local action to prevent global environmental problems or respond appropriately to local impacts of global environmental change. Neither has it been able to cope with the transnational dimension of both causes and effects, as well as requirements of supranational mechanisms of governance for cross-border environmental problems.
Numerous environmental challenges are at the forefront of this change in development patterns, ranging from institution building to the spreading of responsibilities for policy-making and resource management across the central, supranational and subnational levels. The panel will examines factors explaining why for certain environmental issues and countries, the softening of the centralized approach to environmental policy is successfully being driven and supplemented by the emergence of supra-national and sub-national environmental policy processes and actors, whereas in some other instances, policy processes downstream and upstream fail to emerge, leaving the structure of governance at one level.
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| An investigation into the human ecological determinants of Anopheles larval site development and mosquito control activities in a malaria endemic area of coastal Kenya |
| Author: Keating, Joseph
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| Co-Author(s): Kate Macintyre, John C. Beier, Charles Mbogo, John I. Githure, Samuel Kahindi, Lydiah Kibe |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Department of Interantional Health and Development, Tulane University, 1440 Canal Street, Suite 2200, New Orleans, La, 70112 |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| This paper describes a geographic sampling strategy for combined mosquito and human ecological studies, and describes relationships between human activities and anopheline larval ecology in urban areas. Malindi, Kenya was mapped using global positioning systems (GPS), and a geographic information system (GIS) was used to overlay a measured grid, which served as a sampling frame for both the entomological and human component of this research. Grid cells were stratified and randomly selected according to levels of drainage. A stratified cross-sectional survey was conducted in November and December 2002 to collect entomological and human ecological data at the community, household, and aquatic habitat level. Multiple logistic regression models were used to test relationships between the presence of potential anopheline larval habitat and human activities at the respective levels. Thirty-one aquatic habitats were identified, of which, 95% were man-made and 33% were harboring anopheline larvae. The results of this research suggest that an area's level of planning, drainage, human density and socioeconomic status, and land-use are important determinants of aquatic habitat development. As well, the location of the aquatic habitat, substrate type, the presence of pollution and animals, and the species composition of the habitat are related to the presence of anopheline larvae. Wealth, education, location, density, daily activity, and access to water and sewage services were important determinants of household level mosquito avoidance behaviors. The integration of social and biological sciences will allow local mosquito and malaria control groups an opportunity to assess the risk of encountering potentially infectious mosquitoes in a given area, and concentrate resources accordingly. |
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| Assessing the cost of managing carbon |
| Author: Keith, David
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| Institutional Affiliation: Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University
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| Panel Title: Policy-Technology Interactions in Mitigating the Environmental Burden of Human Activities |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Assessments of the cost of environmental technologies can play a pivotal role in determining policy outcomes. Such assessments often involve asymmetries of information between public regulators and private firms that present fertile opportunities for strategic game playing by both sides. I will assess estimates of the cost of managing carbon, focusing on the possible role of carbon capture and storage. In the electric sector, for example, published estimates of the cost avoiding emissions vary by as much as an order of magnitude. While this variance arises in part from unavoidable uncertainties in assessing the cost and performance of un-proven technologies, significant variance arises from inconsistencies in question formulation and strategic interactions between actors in the assessments that exaggerate the technical uncertainty. I will assess the reasons why cost estimates are so uncertain, paying particular attention to the role that choice of analysis time-scale plays in determining the outcome, and speculating about the role of asymmetric information. Finally, I will speculate about assessment methodologies that might reduce these uncertainties. |
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| Governance for Sustainability through Transition Management |
| Author: Kemp, René
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| Co-Author(s): Derk Loorbach |
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| Institutional Affiliation: MERIT
Maastricht University
Tongersestraat 49, P.O. Box 616, 6200 MD Maastricht
The Netherlands
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| Panel Title: Transitions Towards Sustainability: How to induce them? (IHDP IT Session 3) |
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| Paper Link: docs/kemp.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| Sustainability has become the keyword of government, environmentalists and to a lesser extent business. Sustainability is an elusive concept and beyond the reach of single organizations. It involves quite fundamental changes in functional systems (such as energy supply, transportation, food production, water protection) but it is not clear how this can be achieved. Our premise holds that managing for sustainability requires a policy approach based on goal-oriented modulation. Details are worked out in the policy approach 'Transition management' (Rotmans et al. 2001, Kemp and Rotmans 2001 and 2002, Loorbach and Rotmans 2002). Transition management for sustainable development consists of deliberate attempts to work towards social, economic, and ecological objectives in a gradual, forward-looking manner in full recognition of system dynamics and windows of opportunity to effect change. The Dutch government adopted it in its fourth national environmental policy plan.
Transition management offers an integrative multi-level framework for policy deliberation and the choice of instruments and individual and collective action by private and public parties. Noteworthy elements are the use of long-term goals, alignment of policies (horizontal and vertical ones), and strategic experiments based on visions of sustainability besides traditional policies of regulation and taxes.
Through its focus on long-term ambitions and its attention to dynamics it aims to overcome the conflict between long-term ambition and short-term concerns. Learning, maintaining variety (through portfolio management) and institutional change are important policy aims.
The purpose of this paper is to compare the idea of transition management with other steering approaches: planning, network management, regulation, prices (markets). We hope to shed some light about the roles of different types of coordination and governance systems for working towards sustainability transitions involving a step change in functional systems. |
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| Assessing Policy Responses to Climate Change at the National Level. Formulation of the Finnish Climate Strategy. |
| Author: Kerkkänen, Anu
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| Institutional Affiliation: Department of Regional Studies and Environmental Policy, University of Tampere, Finland |
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| Panel Title: National Perceptions of Climate Change |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| National policy-making has an important role when assessing the effectiveness of international environmental policies. That means that the cultural negotiations over the national implementation of the international climate policy are extremely important if the real outcome of the policy is considered. Globalisation and national action can not be considered, however, as separate processes because there is always a kind of interplay between different spatial levels.
In my paper, I will describe the ways by which the national policies are adjusted to the demands of the international climate policy in Finland. Especially I will focus on the formulation of the Finnish climate strategy, which implicates what kind of measures is needed in Finland in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions according to the Kyoto protocol. The formulation of the strategy has challenged many existing administrative practices in Finland. Thus, in my paper I will especially analyse how different roles and power relations were taking shape during the climate strategy formulation within the state administration. My aim is also to study how the state administration was disposed to other (non-state) actors and institutions and how the traditional roles of these parties were changing along with the preparation of the national climate strategy.
The case shows that authority in environmental policy is largely accrued through the ability to garner and deploy information and ideas. During the preparation of the Finnish climate strategy particularly the different economic calculations got an important role as they were often used as a basis for argumentation. Thus, the multifarious forms of knowledge, and the ways by which they have an effect on the environmental policy formulation at the national level, are in the centre of analysis. The analysis is based on the interviews with the key-actors and on the official documents and newspaper articles. |
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| The importance of institutional baseline descriptions for assessing vulnerability to global change: examples from northern Norway, Sweden and Finland |
| Author: Keskitalo, E. Carina H.
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| Institutional Affiliation: International Relations, Department of Social Studies, University of Lapland, P O Box 122, 961 01 Rovaniemi |
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| Panel Title: Institutional Dimensions of Global Climate Change |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| To at all assess whether change is taking place and in relation to what, any study of global change needs to establish a baseline description of their selected area. The setup of a baseline is, however, not an unproblematic procedure; it is to a great degree based on assumptions both about which the driving forces of change in the selected area are as well as on where the impacts of change will be seen (and which factors should thus be described in the baseline). This problem emphasises the need for practical assessments of socio-economic factors on a scale where sets of driving forces and regional problems and characteristics can be discussed more in detail. Thus, the present paper emphasises the need for _empirical, place-based_ baseline assessments that especially places a focus on _present institutional and regional capacity_: the regional institutional network that will be crucial to deal with changes in any given world (and allow for a more certain, micro-level, assessment of for instance the process of adaptation to such change). Especially, such an analysis is critical in assessing the vulnerability of peripheral regions, which have often been described from an outside and which subsistence is largely dependent on their development of networks and social abilities to adapt to changing circumstances. The paper illustrates this social and institutional vulnerability with examples from the northern peripheral regions of Norway, Sweden and Finland; it argues that these regions have often been described in terms that focus only on what separates them from the centre, rather than on their characteristics as seen by those inhabiting and responding in them. Such limited descriptions have thus contributed to a too low consideration of processes of coping and adapting at the regional and local level, resulting in faulty understandings and responses in policy design, implementation and the selection of mitigation/adaptation options.
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| The Age and Art of Stewardship - Awareness and Empathy in Action |
| Author: Kevany, Kathleen May D.
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| Institutional Affiliation: United Nations University, Institute of Advanced Studies |
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| Panel Title: Consumption and Environment |
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| Paper Link: docs/Kevany.pdf |
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| Governance, Markets, and Ethics: what do we know about the institutions that mediate between human behavior and global change?
This paper expands the conversation about stewarding resources and transforming societies of individuals and groups from consumers 'at whatever costs' to sustainable and conscientious consumers. The triumph of capitalism has not proven to be without tremendous cost. Some triumph while many suffer. Inequality and poverty threaten us all. When twenty percent of the world's people in the industrialized countries account for 86% of total private consumption expenditures, while the poorest 20% account for 1.3% (UNDP, 1999) this is not the foundation for peace or security. Capitalism and economism are based on false accounting. Some costs, particularly environmental costs, are hidden and the ill state afforded subsequent generations underestimated. Also increases in materialism do not translate directly into increases in well-being, as unbridled consumerism has been proven to contribute to emptiness, loneliness, anxiety, and a fundamental loss of being (Wallis, 1994). The art of stewardship invites all people to consciously, creatively, and responsibly use time, treasure, talent and 'trees'. While the connections have been made between stewardship, environmentalism and global justice the connections to other important issues like rights, responsibilities and respect for all peoples have not been sufficiently harnessed.
The coming age is the age of stewardship: we are here not to govern and exploit, but to maintain and creatively transform and carry on the torch of evolution (Skolimowski, 1993). With concerted effort, through formal and informal education and community and government campaigns, to increase the exercising of free choice and democratic rights and obligations more just possibilities may emerge. Economic, regulatory and social instruments can be utilized to consider inequality and poverty and to enhance environmental and social outcomes. Arousing individual responsibility for natural resources and their judicious use will depend on the quality of education and public appeals. Efforts that place human well-being at the center are the surest way of safeguarding creation. To achieve sustainable levels of consumption, behaviour must change through raised awareness, the free flow of facts, compelling arguments and disciplined actions.
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| Plenary Commentator: Governance of Natural Resource Issues |
| Author: King, Leslie
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| Institutional Affiliation: null |
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| Panel Title: Plenary: Governance of Natural Resource Issues |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| No abstract available. |
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| Heat stress mortality in the NYC metropolitan area: estimates for the 2050s using a linked global-regional climate modeling system |
| Author: Kinney, Patrick
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| Co-Author(s): K. Knowlton, J. Rosenthal, C. Rosenzweig, W. Solecki, C. Hogreffe, B. Linn, R. Avissar |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Mailman School of Public Health
Department of Environmental Health Sciences
Columbia University |
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| Panel Title: Urban Dimensions of Climate Change and Public Health |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| The potential effects of climate change have been widely projected in terms of global or continental-scale temperature and precipitation variation. To date however, specific public health impacts resulting from environmental change have seldom been projected at the regional level more appropriate to adaptive city, county, and state planning. Here we evaluate and compare patterns of projected heat stress mortality using future climate estimates at two levels of spatial resolution: 4x5 degrees (appx. 400 x 500 km) and 36 km. An integrated modeling framework was developed to link a global climate model, a regional climate model, a land use/land cover model, a regional atmospheric chemistry model, and a public health impacts model. Preliminary work has focused on linking the global and regional climate models to estimate daily surface temperatures across the New York City metropolitan region in the decade of the 2050s as compared with the 1990s based on the IPCC A2 and B2 global emissions scenarios. The temperature estimates were linked geographically with population estimates to assess heat stress mortality across the region. Several alternative mortality/heat models were examined, including both threshold and continuous function models. Both heat and cold related mortality were evaluated. Preliminary analyses with the integrated model compare health impact projections using global climate model outputs alone, versus those impacts projected by the integrated global-regional climate model outputs. In this manner, a range of future projections for heat-related mortality are made for use by city or county departments of health, the agencies typically responsible for health care infrastructure coordination and planning in the US. |
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| Holistic Facilitation of Compact City Based on Information System |
| Author: Kinoshita, Akira
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| Institutional Affiliation: Tohoku Bunka Gakuen University |
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| Panel Title: Sustainable Compact City and its Facilitation |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| The concept of sustainable development must imply quality of life. There were fewer dimensions of symbiosis with nature, human community and essential value of movements in previous urban planning. Given the acceleration of the aging population, it is now necessary to pursue holistic approaches to minimization of resource requirements, emissions, and production of wastes through integration with information systems. It is argued that a design concept should be constructed to green the compact city,including cascade energy use, to restrain inefficient sprawl starting from consciousness transformation facilitated by information and communication technologies which support effective public decision making. |
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| Comparing How Climate Change and Development Stressors Influence Quality-of-Life Tradeoffs for Residents of Cape May County, New Jersey |
| Author: Kipp, Jennison
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| Co-Author(s): Ann Fisher, Robert O¿Connor, Russell Blair, Richard Ready, Brent Yarnal and Richard Stedman |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Penn State University |
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| Panel Title: Consortium for Atlantic Regional Assessment (CARA): Complex Coupled Systems |
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| Paper Link: docs/kipp.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| The more refined our understanding of how individuals visualize and react to stressors that shape their environment, the better equipped we are to plan for and respond to such changes. For local planning, it is useful to investigate the forces that alter local or regional conditions and how humans respond to such forces. Some forces are driven by residents' preferences (e.g., for land use and physical development). External stressors also drive change at local to global levels (e.g., climate change or population growth). Changes at any spatial level are rooted in a complex interaction of such global, regional and local forces. Residents respond to the new environmental conditions that these stressors create rather than directly to the forces or stressors themselves. But what if the blame for local environmental changes is explicitly attributed to a single driving force? Does the nature of this force affect the way that individuals make tradeoffs?
Our research explores the possibility that people react differently to changes in their quality of life when these changes are framed in the context of different driving forces: development vs. climate change (the stressors). We survey a random sample of Cape May County, New Jersey residents to learn about tradeoffs between quality-of-life attributes. Respondents make judgments about importance of and satisfaction with a range of features that contribute to their quality of life. The questionnaire also asks them to think 30 years into the future and choose between quality-of-life scenarios that could occur. A key component is that half of the sample receives an informational leaflet describing changes in quality of life as a result of development decisions; the other half receives a leaflet attributing the same impacts to climate change. Because the potential effects of climate change are projected to induce changes similar to those from poorly planned development, this case study is a unique yet realistic way of exploring how the cause of a stressor influences individuals' quality-of-life tradeoffs. |
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| Taking Stock and Moving Forward; the Role of Seasonal Forecasting in Adaptation to Long-Term Climate Change, What the CFAR Project in Burkina Faso Has Learned |
| Author: Kirshen, Paul
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| Institutional Affiliation: Civil and Environmental Engineering Department, Tufts University |
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| Panel Title: Rural Livelihoods and Climate Variability: Insights for Adaptation to Longer Term Change |
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| Paper Link: docs/kirshen.pdf |
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| No abstract available. |
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| Inspiring Regional Viewpoints from Citizens for Environmental Planning |
| Author: Kitani, Shinobu
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| Institutional Affiliation: Tohoku University |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Within the advancing/encompassing processes of globalization, greater importance is now being placed on regional perspectives ' particularly in managing the environment. Many researchers have paid considerable attention on developing regional perspectives, particularly in planning and development processes. This is particularly true from an environmental ethics viewpoint, in terms of equitable distribution of scarce resources and impacts on citizens' quality of life.
This raises a key issue ' how can a regional viewpoint be developed among citizens in order to inspire better urban planning and development? This will help in understanding the impact of globalization on the local environment and vice-versa.
The paper will focus on this issue, through a role-gaming simulation on regional environmental planning of a small town in Japan. The gaming simulation (which was held with citizens and outsiders of an actual town in Japan) helps citizens become more aware of the planning and development issues of their town, and also to inspire regional viewpoints in them. |
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| Towards Sustainable Charcoal Production and Consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Proposed Integrated Approach |
| Author: Kituyi, Evans
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| Institutional Affiliation: African Centre for Technology Studies |
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| Panel Title: Environmentally Sustainable Energy Production |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| There is general consensus that the majority of sub-Saharan African households will continue depending on traditional woodfuels to meet their daily energy needs for many decades to come. In particular, the demand for charcoal in most countries in the region continues to grow at high rates owing to the ever-increasing rural-to-urban migration. This scenario is further complicated by the use of inefficient charcoal production and consumption practices and the inaccessibility by most households to reliable and affordable cleaner commercial energy forms. All these concerns render an uncertain future on the sustainability of supply from the already-dwindling biomass resource.
Lack of official intervention is leading to desertification in many countries, and reduced water flows, poor soils and conflicts in others. Where interventions have been reported, they have largely been piecemeal, focusing on an aspect of the problem such as forest fencing by the government or the introduction of improved efficiency stoves by NGOs in some parts of a country. At a time when the African continent is searching for lasting solutions to energy insecurity, adaptation to climatic variability and poverty reduction, it is emerging that viable solutions will be those that are systematic and integrated.
As a contribution to the search for sustainable strategies for charcoal production and consumption in sub-Saharan Africa, a systems approach is proposed based on the life-cycle assessment (LCA) concept. Considering all activities involved from wood production, extraction, pyrolysis, consumption and disposal, as well as stakeholders involved at all these life cycle stages, the optimum policies, regulatory, and organizational frameworks necessary for this strategy to achieve sustainable charcoal industry in SSA are proposed.
If well implemented the strategy demonstrates potential to significantly reduce atmospheric emissions, conserve carbon sinks, combat desertification, ensure energy security for the rural poor and improved livelihoods through expanded range of alternative income generating options.
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| The Usability of Science Advice to International Environmental Conventions |
| Author: Kohler, Pia
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| Institutional Affiliation: Environmental Policy Group of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) |
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| Panel Title: Scientific Knowledge, Controversy, and Assessment in Global-Change Regimes |
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| Paper Link: docs/Kohler.pdf |
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| Many international environmental conventions have designated a body responsible for providing decision makers with science advice. Yet, how usable is this advice being provided to decision-makers? I suggest that the usability of this science advice will depend on four factors: autonomy, diversity, process and transparency (in order of decreasing importance). These factors are evaluated for three international environmental conventions: the 1971 Ramsar Convention on Wetlands, the 1985 Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer and its 1987 Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, and the 1992 Convention on Biological Diversity. Decision-makers from these conventions were surveyed to gain a greater insight into what factors are significant contributors to a more usable output. Through these surveys, three factors are identified as most important in determining usability of science advice: scientist reputation, autonomy from government influence and transparency. The results also imply that the size of the science advisory body may be a critical factor. The next step in this avenue of research is to examine how thee attributes can be improved in existing science advisory bodies, and how these lessons can be applied to the creation of new science advisory processes for international settings. |
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| Taking Stock: The Evolution of Environmental Security Networks |
| Author: Korhonen, Peter
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| Institutional Affiliation: Concordia University |
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| Panel Title: Adaptation and Environmental Security |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| It may well be that, without a reconceptualization of environmental security, it will fade into resigned oblivion as a useful tool for both analysis and advocacy.
This paper will evaluate progress in two areas: the evolution of the concept of environmental security, in the academic and policy literature, on a global level, from the early formations in the 1960s to the present; and the concomitant development of environmental security networks (ESNs) to affect positive change in this area. Thus we will integrate the world of ideas with the world of policy choices, and aim towards a synthetic constructive critique of both prevalent notions of environmental security and the elaborate ESN architecture that has emerged, in and outside of the United Nations system. ESNs form a unique and embryonic segment of global governance; they encapsulate not just official, inter-state regimes, but also transnational solidarity movements dedicated to preserving local ecology and the global commons. While there is much literature critical of the concept of environmental security, the critical approach is rarely applied to ESNs themselves, and this paper will ask how we can move toward more effective, constructive criticism of the dilemmas typically associated with ESN establishment and maintenance, ultimately arriving at a series of proposals for enhanced scholarship and institutional development. |
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| Assessing Adaptive Responses to the 2001/2002 Droughts in Canada |
| Author: Koshida, Grace
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| Co-Author(s): Elaine Wheaton, Virginia Wittrock |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Environment Canada, Adaptation and Impacts Research Group |
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| Panel Title: Biophysical and Socioeconomic Aspects of the 2001 and 2002 Droughts in Canada |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Adaptive responses to drought are made to lessen or avoid negative biophysical, social and economic impacts. Adaptation options and responses to drought can vary by region and sector. Areas with a greater risk of droughts, such as the Prairie Provinces, are often better prepared to deal with droughts because they experience drought more frequently. However, droughts such as the 2001/02 droughts that were intense, covered large areas, and were persistent in nature caused severe hardship to all regions.
Examples of adaptive options used by the agricultural sector to response to drought include changing crop types, decreasing inputs, or moving livestock to better grazing lands. Other on-farm ways of dealing with drought include soil and water conservation and improved irrigation. Drought effects are reduced or prevented by constructing infrastructure including wells, pipelines, dugouts and reservoirs. Other categories of adaptive options to drought include monitoring and forecasting, financial support, institutional changes, and use of new technologies and decision-support systems.
Adaptive responses to drought may not always be successful, depending on several factors such as the nature of the drought, its timing, the impacts, and costs/benefits. In order to improve the adaptation learning process, it is important to determine the successes, costs and failures of past responses, and to make recommendations to enhance adaptive capacity and avoid mal-adaptations in the future.
This paper will highlight two types of analyses that were conducted to document the range of adaptive responses used during the 2001/02 droughts in Canada. Print media surveys of daily and weekly newspapers were conducted for Western and Eastern Canada to document impacts and adaptive responses. Print media are useful measures since they reflect the timing, level and types of concern and issues regarding drought, people and regions affected, impacts and the adaptation process.
Another important adaptive response to droughts are the federal and provincial government response and safety net programs put in place to offset negative economic and social impacts. Results from the review of federal and provincial government response programs in place during the 2001/02 droughts in Western and Eastern Canada will be presented. |
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| Environmental and Human Dimensions of Coastal Change (A challenging perspective from the new LOICZ project) |
| Author: Kremer, Hartwig
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| Institutional Affiliation: IGBP/LOICZ (Land Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone) |
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| Panel Title: Global Environmental Change and Coastal Areas: A Microcosm of Coupled Human-Environment Systems |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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Abstract
37% of the world's population live in the 100-km coastal band; however, people pressure figures go up immediately if the whole water cascade and small islands are considered part of the 'wider coastal system'. Institutions and science increasingly recognise that this broader scale applies if a full picture of coastal system functioning, its critical thresholds, and transboundary issues needs to be accomplished. The stage is set for the development of appropriate analytic approaches covering coastal and human system
Instead of having being disciplinary and fragmented past coastal change research has provided a first meaningful synthesis of at least timeshots of coastal properties, largely based on material fluxes and system metabolism. Challenging, however, remains to emphasise the dynamics of change and functions and to differentiate anthropogenic from environmental forcing. Science is asked to provide integrated indicators and scenarios capturing changing environmental conditions together with social choice and political decisions in support of sustainable management and use of the wider coastal zone, its goods and service.
The next decade of land-ocean interaction research will strongly link processes and human dimensions in a holistic fashion encompassing earth system scales and place based, issue driven research. Taking the first 10year synthesis, IHDP and LOICZ are jointly developing the future science agenda, addressing peoples' issues as the major element of co-evolving environmental and social systems. In drawing up a framework for global coastal change some key directions and interactions for future coastal research and its role in supporting human society and earth system sciences will be highlighted.
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| Human Dimensions in Vegetation Recovery from Degraded Land Areas, Land Use Management and Wasteland Development along the Coastal India |
| Author: Krishnamoorthy, Ramasamy
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| Co-Author(s): S. Ramachandran |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Department of Applied Geology, University of Madras, Guindy Campus |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Considerable areas adjoining coastal India are undergoing land and environmental degradations due to various anthropogenic and biophysical activities.The important factors are the population pressure and the impact of industrialization and urbanization. Additionally, the failure of monsoon leads to drought and expansion of fallow lands along the coastal belt bordering the important coastal resources especially the marine biosphere reserves, national parks, sactuaries etc. To study this complex and more interrelated coastal issues / problems an integrated approach involving remote sensing data analysis and GIS applications were carried out. The aim of this present study is to analyse the human dimensions in vegetation recovery from degraded land areas, improvement of land use after the introdution of rehabilitation programmes and wasteland development especially along the coastal India mainly based on the analysis of multidate multisensor remote sensing data and GIS analysis coupled with ground truth and validation methods. Selected coastal "hot spots" undergoing resource overexploitation and environmental degradation along east and west coasts and also the island coasts of India were chosen for this study. Spatial data on land use, vegetation cover, coastal and enclosed coastal areas water quality and shoreline geomorphology derived from remote sensing data were analysed for change-detection studies. Quantitative analysis on resource depletion and environmentaldegradation were carried out using multidate remote sensing data. Consultation of other field data on various socio-economic parameters were carried out using a GIS which immensely helped to understand man and environment interactions including the underlying causes. Improvements in vegetation espcially along the coastal sites taken up for rehabilitation with the involvement of local community were monitored using the multidate satellite data. Fusion of socio-economic data with relevant spatial data derived from remote sensing can be achieved using a GIS tool. Change-detection analysis on vegetation cover, fallow land, degraded lands and freshwater resources are higly beneficial in land use management including the development of wastelands along the coastal belt. The findings of this study really proved the importance and possibilities of preparation science based people oriented environmental management plans based on an integrated approach. |
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| Intercultural Images of Nature and Perceptions of Climate Change |
| Author: Krömker, Dörthe
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| Institutional Affiliation: Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel |
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| Panel Title: Global Politics of Carbon Emissions |
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| Paper Link: docs/kroemker.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| Within research for sustainable development we try to understand the dynamics, causes and effects of world-wide changes in the natural environment. An important basis to understand and also to change such processes is the often underrepresented social dimension of sustainability: What is the social and cultural embedding of phenomena of global change? What do these phenomena mean for different people all over the world? Do we have the same understanding, perceptions and evaluations of global change? '
This project focuses on the perceptions and the appraisals of climate change as an exemplarily selected phenomenon of global change processes.
On the basis of psychological action theories (i.e. 'theory of planned behaviour') those factors are identified which hinder or foster the acceptance of protection measures, such as ecological taxing. Empirical social science methodologies (questionnaires and statistical analyses) are used to learn something about the factors which determine the acceptance of protection measures. Students from USA, India, Peru and Germany have been interviewed and with that data an encompassing action-model has been build. Results show, that there are differences between people from different countries. However, national affiliation in itself is not a satisfying explanation for differences in those perceptions and the acceptance of measures. Therefore has been explored whether images of nature are culture specific and whether they are connected to appraisals of climate change. Different types of perception of nature have been identified and connected to the appraisals about climate change. Results show that basic beliefs about how 'nature works' explain indeed differences in the perception of climate change and the acceptance of protection measures. These images of nature are presented in more detail and also the empirical findings about the factors influencing the acceptance of protection measures. |
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| Coastal fisheries in Maharashtra state with special reference to present social and environmental scenario . |
| Author: Kulkarni, Balasaheb
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| Co-Author(s): J. P. Dighe |
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| Institutional Affiliation: The Institute of Science,
University of mumbai,India |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Maharashtra, which is a third largest state in India, is situated on west coast of Arabian Sea. It is endowed with a 720 km coastline and 1,11,512 sq km of continental shelf. Maharashtra coast alone contributed on an average about 17%of the total marine production of India. Maharashtra is one of the leading states in overall development of the mechanization of crafts and gears but the state is now at third position in term of marine fish production. Except monsoon the fishing along Maharashtra coast is conducted through out the year and the local fishermen exploit an area up to 72 m depth. It has been shown that 34 important group of fisheries, eight pelagic groups (oil sardine, anchovies, coilia, mullet, unicorn cod, Bombay duck, half beak, full beak, tunnies seer fish) and nine demersal groups (elasmobranches, cat fish, goat fish, threadfin, silver bellies big jawed jumpers, pomfret, non-penaeid shrimp and lobster) are depleting due to over fishing and coastal environment degradation. Moreover, due to heavy load of industrial and domestic effluent into coast of Major cities in Maharashtra, intertidal fishery of mollusks like clam and gastropods has been depleted. Mumbai, one of the major industrialized and urbanized metropolises in India, and capital city of Maharashtra is situated on west coast. Voluminous amount of untreated and partially treated industrial and domestic effluent is released into the sea in and around Mumbai. Coastal water quality at many places in Mumbai shows high level of nutrient and hydrogen sulphide. As a result, creek of Mahim shows anoxic condition during low tide period. Mahim creek is an eye-opener example of effect of urbanization and industrialization on the coast. Due to increasing pollution of nearby costal water in and around Mumbai, hardly fishery is possible, with the result local fishermen community is facing problems and their socioeconomic condition is deteriorating. Such present scenario and the perspective have been presented in this paper.
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| Beyond Assessing the Socio-Economic Implications of the 2001/2002 Drought in Canada |
| Author: Kulshreshtha, Suren
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| Co-Author(s): Charles Grant, Gord Bell, George Brown |
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| Institutional Affiliation: University of Saskatchewan |
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| Panel Title: Biophysical and Socioeconomic Aspects of the 2001 and 2002 Droughts in Canada |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Results of the 2001 and 2002 drought in Canada are reported in this paper, based on information compiled from a combination of sources - farm level surveys, published data, and expert opinions. One of the striking features of the two droughts was that their incidence and severity differed from region to region and between the two years. Generally speaking, drought impacts in western Canada were more severe than those in eastern Canada. This is not to suggest that there were no incidence of local drought (few counties affected) with a high degree of severity. In British Columbia, in 2002, there was a loss of $30 million for livestock enterprises. Situation changed considerably for the prairies, where in Alberta, both the 2001 and 2002 droughts brought hardship to producers of agricultural commodities in several regions of the province, resulting a total loss of $267 million in 2001 and another $987 million in 2002. Saskatchewan drought affected the southwest and central Saskatchewan, resulting a net loss to producers of $529 million in 2001, and $948.8 million in 2002. Within western Canada Manitoba did not experience an adverse condition because of the droughts. In eastern Canada, the 2001 farm-level drought impacts in Ontario were widely dispersed and highly variable across locations and across crops. In 2001, the net economic loss to producers due to drought was $289.5 million. Non-farm sectors in Ontario were effected somewhat by the drought but the economic impacts were not substantial. In Quebec, in 2001, drought effects included diminished yields in soybean and hay crops for a total of $54 million in 2001 and $.20.6 million in 2002. In the Maritime provinces, drought impacts in New Brunswick were generally moderate but severe in some localized areas. In Nova Scotia, the net economic loss due to drought was $26.9 million in 2001 and $16.2 million in 2002. Drought impacts in Prince Edward Island were lower due to reduced potato yields. |
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| Estimation and Economic Valuation of Carbon Sequestration Flows in Indian Forest in Income Accounting Framework |
| Author: Kumar, Pushpam
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| Co-Author(s): Kanchan Chopra |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Institute of Economic Growth
University of Delhi Enclave
Delhi-110007
Ph 91-11-27667101
Ph/Fax:91-11-27662397 |
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| Panel Title: Economic and Social Aspects of Forest Management Systems |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Carbon sequestration in forest inclusive of carbon storage and parking is a one of the most crucial services of forest ecosystems. While methodology exists for physical accounting of carbon sequestration of forest ecosystems, valuation remains a problem area because it has to be based on the avoided marginal social damage cost of emission through the sequestration of forest and this is very difficult to estimate due to its global nature, although several attempts have been made in the past. In this paper we have attempted to estimate the flow of carbon sequestration in Indian Forest by adopting a methodology, which is dynamic in nature and directly estimates the stock of carbon sequestrated in the forest. We find that the total carbon emission in Indian Forest lies in the range of 37.17 million to 37.46 million tons. However looking at the ailing natural forests in India, until the very recent years in which the area under forest has registered some positive change, the positive carbon flows from Indian forests seems to be very interesting. The status of plantation forests in India provides a possible explanation of the positive flows that come out of our study. Carbon sequestration flows therefore annually provide 5.5% of the gross value of production in the forestry sector. This value depends critically on the assumptions with respect to the international price for carbon sequestered. With more careful implementation of the Kyoto protocol and rising demand for adopting least cost methods for carbon sequestration, this demand is bound to rise and hence an upward shift in the price. |
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| Decentralization and Forest Management in Honduras, Guatemala and Nicaragua |
| Author: Larson, Anne
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| Institutional Affiliation: Independent Scholar |
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| Panel Title: Decentralization and Environmental Governance |
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| Paper Link: docs/Larson.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| The paper will present a comparative study of decentralization and municipal forest management in Honduras, Guatemala and Nicaragua. All three Central American countries have implemented forest decentralization strategies in very different ways and in very different national historical contexts. In a largely donor-driven process, Honduran municipal governments control almost a third of the country?s forests, but low capacity and depressed markets for pine interfere with their ability to make that authority effective. In its government-driven process, Guatemala?s forestry institute has led a national initiative to build municipal forest management capacity, but has failed to transfer significant decision-making powers to the local sphere. Nicaragua?s municipalities, with a more demand-driven process, have the most extensive powers over centrally-approved logging contracts in their jurisdiction but still have little decision-making authority.
National workshops held in each country suggest similar concerns and opportunities among similar groups of actors. Central governments increasingly recognize the validity and imperative of local governments as interlocutors but are still reticent to give up power and benefits. Community leaders want greater say in resource-related decisions that affect their lives but accept both local and national governments as key and legitimate actors. Mayors seek greater funding and decision-making powers but recognize their need for technical assistance and their responsibility to be representative, democratic leaders. National historical contexts, however, shape the meaning of these different concerns and the opportunities for democratic decentralization of forest management in the future.
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| Coherence and the order of change in environmental management |
| Author: Lauridsen, Erik Hagelskjær
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| Co-Author(s): Ulrik Jørgensen |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Department of Manufacturing Engineering and Management
Section on Innovation & Sustainability
Technical University of Denmark |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Evaluating the impact of the implementation of environmental management in a company requires an analysis of the actual environmental priorities that are established. The objective of the ISO 14000 standard, taken as a representative for environmental management systems, is its attempt to initiate and sustain continuous improvements. This may in the short run be achieved by implementing good household practices that will save raw materials, energy and water. However, long run improvements will require, that the company is able to develop environmental priorities that are the result of the engagement of both the complete internal organisation of the company as well as the context external stakeholders including environmental authorities, consultants, neighbours and NGO?s.
The environmental priorities must thus be understood as a result of the context of the company, inclucing the chronology of the different elements that brings the environment onto the company?s agenda. This requires an understanding of how well these are related to company?s network of stakeholders in order to be able to function as a a coherent frame of reference for the environmental discussions. This paper claims that this constitution of ?coherent? environmental issues is crucial for the objective of continuous improvement, and that establishing 'coherence' is dependent of the order of change in this agenda setting.
This is exemplified with the implementation of ISO 14000 in the recently industrialized Thailand. It is still an open question whether it will function in a comparative way to the European situation, where it supports the creation of increasingly coherent environmental agendas e.g. in the integration of surveillance efforts and environmental management systems and how to make environment a permanent concern for company management. The Thai context combining recent industrialization and young democracy draws attention to the preconditions that in a western context are taken for granted.
Theoretically the paper uses the the actor-network concept of ?alignment? as inspiration in order to address how ?coherence? can explain the necessary interrelation of discussions that will otherwise exist in separate domains as isolated scientific disciplines, management topics and regulatory objects. |
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| Climate Science as An Institutional Force in Climate Policymaking in Taiwan |
| Author: Lee, Ho Ching
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| Institutional Affiliation: Chung-Yuan Christian University
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Scientific knowledge plays a role in shaping and influencing political decision-maing on international environmental negotiation and domestic resource management. In the climate change regime, the IPCC process is viewed as instrumental in agenda setting, presenting cause-effect variables, interpreting research results and developing policy options. This paper attempts to address three sets of questions: what are special characteristics of climate science; why and under what circumstances does climate science generate rational policy and international cooperation; and how does one initiate an IPCC process in Taiwan for environmental policy inputs. Given Taiwan's international status and domestic institutions, this paper outlines an approach for integration of credible science, salient issues and expanded participation in decision-making. |
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| Mapping Multiple Stressors: Climate Change and Economic Globalization in India |
| Author: Leichenko, Robin
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| Co-Author(s): Karen O'Brien, Ulka Kelkar, Henry Venema, Guro Aandahl, Heather Tompkins, Akram Javed, Suruchi Bhadwal, Stephen Barg, Jennifer West |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Department of Geography
Rutgers University |
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| Panel Title: Vulnerability to Multiple Stressors: Globalization and Climate Change |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Vulnerability has emerged as a cross-cutting theme in research on the human dimensions of global climate change. Yet studies of climate change vulnerability are only beginning to recognize the influence of multiple stressors, including structural changes associated with economic globalization. Our study examines climate change vulnerability in Indian agriculture within the context of economic globalization. The study entailed development of an agricultural vulnerability profile on a macro-level analysis of vulnerability to climate change and trade liberalization in India. The profile identified districts that are considered highly vulnerable both to climate variability and change and to import competition, based on a series of socioeconomic and biophysical indicators and indices combined with scenarios of climate change and trade liberalization. The vulnerability profiles were then validated through local-level case studies carried out in 2002-2003. The case studies explored the vulnerability of farmers in different regions to multiple stressors, with an emphasis on coping and adaptation strategies used in the post-1991 period. Our results indicate that increased drought sensitivity as the result of climate change will intersect with the impacts of liberalization of Indian agricultural trade, creating a situation of double exposure for Indian farmers. The results further show that trade liberalization is influencing the capacity of many farmers in India to adapt to climate change, raising questions about the long-term sustainability of agriculture in some regions. The analytical approach of constructing a national vulnerability profile and then conducting case studies in selected 'double-exposed' areas, represents an important innovation in climate vulnerability research which will enhance understanding of climate vulnerability in the context of multiple stressors |
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| Water, institutions and knowledge: a comparative analysis of decisionmaking in Arizona, United States and Ceará, Brazil. |
| Author: Lemos, Maria Carmen
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| Institutional Affiliation: School of Natural Resources and Environment
University of Michigan |
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| Panel Title: Early Warning and Preparedness |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| In 2001, the IPCC estimated that approximately one-third of the world's population live in countries that are water-stressed. It also found that the greatest vulnerabilities regarding hydrology and water resources are likely to be in unmanaged or poorly managed water systems. This study investigates the impact of the use of techno-scientific information in water management in a comparative perspective. Its goals are twofold: first to illuminate the opportunities and constraints for the use of techno-scientific information'especially climate forecasting'in water management, and second, to investigate how the use of such knowledge affects decisionmaking in two water-stressed regions of the world. By focusing on the use of techno-scientific knowledge in the management of water resources in the states of Ceará, Brazil and Arizona, United States, this study examines one specific instance of science/society interaction. On the one hand, it seeks to understand how the different institutional settings where techno-scientific knowledge is applied play a role in the effectiveness of this information as a policy tool. On the other hand, it examines how organizations and decisionmakers respond and adapt to new policy tools. What factors constraint or support the use of knowledge among water managers? How does the use of techno-scientific information affect policy outcome and process? This research is carried out within the context of two broad multidisciplinary projects, the first, a regional integrated scientific assessment (Climate Assessment of the Southwest'CLIMAS), and the second, an extensive comparative effort to analyze institutional change across 23 watersheds in Brazil (Watermark Project/Projeto Marca d'Agua). This study argues that the ability of decisionmakers to incorporate knowledge in water management is a function of the degree of flexibility defining the policymaking environment. While flexibility depends on a number of variables at different institutional levels, this research focuses on watershed level factors, including the 'character' of the organizations and policy networks shaping decisionmaking, the level of discretion of decisionmakers, the 'fit' between the technoscientific knowledge available and the perceived decisionmaking needs of water managers, the nature of the problem (water scarcity vs. water quality) and the role of stakeholders. |
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| Climate Change Information: Reaching Decision Makers and the Public |
| Author: Lenhardt, W. Christopher
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| Co-Author(s): Roberta Balstad Miller |
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| Institutional Affiliation: CIESIN - Columbia University |
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| Panel Title: Early Warning and Preparedness |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| In keeping with the 2003 Open Meeting themes we propose a historical review of the ways researchers have attempted to communicate climate change-related scientific findings to policy-makers. We will examine key climate change-related examples of the science and policy interface such as the Montreal Protocol and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Second, we will look at the range and kind of information that scientists have attempted to bring to the decision-making process. There have been a number of activities designed to provide access to climate change information for decision makers and the public. Among the earliest of these were the consensus reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, first published in 1990, which were intended to be used by policy makers and included specially written policy makers' summaries. There have also been national reports and assessments written for non-scientists. For example, Our Changing Planet, a report to the U.S. Congress on the U.S. Global Change Research Program, has been produced annually since 1989. The recent U.S. National Assessment of Climate Change actually included decision makers and civic leaders in the diagnosis of problems and preparation of reports on climate impacts in various regions of the United States. Third, we will summarize some of the problems encountered by scientists as they have interacted with policy makers. Finally, we will look at emerging approaches, such as efforts by private and public research funding institutions, to better understand and foster the integration of climate change-related scientific knowledge into the decision-making process. |
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| Can this Research Program be Saved? Supporting Sustainable Development Research with Useful Data |
| Author: Levy, Marc
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| Co-Author(s): Alex de Sherbinin |
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| Institutional Affiliation: CIESIN, Columbia University |
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| Panel Title: Data on the Human Dimensions of Environmental Change: Lessons from the Past and Future Opportunities |
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| Paper Link: docs/levy.pdf |
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| The sustainable development research program -- defined here as the body of work aimed at understanding interactions between environmental and economic development processes that affect long term well-being -- has progressed unevenly and without major breakthroughs over the past decade. One reason for this state of affairs is the inadequate supply of relevant data. The
core data challenges that must be overcome for progress to be made are the following: 1) Placing human well-being in a spatial context, 2) placing environmental health in a temporal context, and 3) developing environmental measurement efforts that are more closely related to analytically informed views of what matters most. The paper reviews past efforts that have fallen short because of data gaps, draws attention to recent advances such as poverty mapping that help show the way forward, and makes specific priority recommendations about how best to improve prospects for success. |
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| Civil participation for disaster prevention in Chile |
| Author: León, Alejandro
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| Co-Author(s): Paulina Aldunce |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Department of Environmental Sciences and Renewable Natural Resources, University of Chile |
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| Panel Title: Decentralization and Environmental Governance |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Chile's centralized government has resulted in a relatively inflexible decision-making process and a low degree of civil participation, as compared to other countries in the region like Brazil.
Some steps have been taken, however, towards decentralization. The 2002 Civil Protection National Plan promotes decentralized management and civil participation for disaster prevention. This plan is flexible enough to allow local governments to adapt disaster management to the local conditions.
Case studies showing how organized community participation could decrease vulnerability to disasters in Latin America are scarce. An on-going research project in the Limarí river basin in northern, semi-arid Chile shows that the response of the municipal governments in terms of implementing the plan varies. Likewise, the civil organizations show different degrees of development and commitment. Only one of the three municipalities included in this study has fostered civil participation for disaster management. This has resulted, according to the neighbors, in an improved disaster management.
This is the case of the municipio of Monte Patria, a poor rural community spread out into a myriad of small villages, and dominated by the presence of the abrupt Andean slopes. Due to the climatic conditions, only few but usually strong events occur during the rainy season. Compounded by the destruction of the natural vegetation, runoff causes severe damage throughout the territory. Here, the neighbors, with the aid of the municipio, have organized themselves in local emergency committees. Its members are in charge of maintaining communication with the local government during risky, rainy events while community members assess damage during and after each storm. As a consequence, the local government has increased its ability to respond promptly and to focus emergency aid to those in real need, reducing population's vulnerability. In those municipios with little or no participation these impacts have long-lasting effects. Moreover, the perception of the community regarding the effectiveness of their local government is better in the municipio with community involvement. Moreover, emergency aid is perceived as arriving promptly and usually being distributed fairly. In all cases there is still a strong need of implementing other disaster prevention measures.
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| Designing Wetland Conservation Strategies under Climate Change |
| Author: Li, Jiayi
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| Co-Author(s): James Shortle, Carl Hershner |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Penn State University |
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| Panel Title: Consortium for Atlantic Regional Assessment (CARA): Complex Coupled Systems |
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| Paper Link: docs/Li_jiayi.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| Wetland conservation is a major environmental concern in the Chesapeake Bay region. Substantial losses due to land development and other factors have had profound impacts on the Bay's aquatic resources. Current conservation efforts fail to account for the impacts of climate change on sea level and water chemistry, which can affect the success of conservation efforts. Land use controls are essential to effective wetlands conservation. This study develops a methodology for wetlands conservation investments that takes climate change into account, and demonstrates the methodology for the Elizabeth River watershed in Virginia under plausibly constructed sea-level rise and land use scenarios.
Because it is essential impossible to predict the future, we develop scenarios that establish probable upper and lower bounds on future conditions. We distinguish two basic types of scenarios: baseline scenarios and response scenarios. Sea-level rise scenarios are constructed using projections for the southern Chesapeake Bay region and local information. We also construct land use scenarios for the area by considering land use change drivers and historical trends.
Under different scenario combinations, we conduct cost-effectiveness analysis to compare different management strategies. A key advantage of cost-effectiveness analysis compared to cost-benefit analysis is that the benefits need not to be assessed in pecuniary terms. Effectiveness is defined by using a tool for wetlands identification and planning that was developed by the Chesapeake Bay Program. The tool uses information on wetland type and surrounding land use to generate scores for wetland functions.
Three management strategies are considered. The first allows private landowners to erect protection structures at the landward edge of wetlands and does nothing to protect wetlands. The second protects existing wetlands to some extent. The third relocates wetlands strategically by public acquisition of low value and low elevation lands for restoration. Candidate restoration sites are identified based on whether the present landscape still retains features that allowed it to support wetlands in the past. We assess the costs of replacing current land use with wetlands and identify preferred sites for restoration. |
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| Neoliberalism and global environmental change in Latin America |
| Author: Liverman, Diana
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| Institutional Affiliation: Department of Geography, University of Arizona |
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| Panel Title: Vulnerability to Multiple Stressors: Globalization and Climate Change |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| This paper will examine how neoliberal politics and policies (e.g. free trade, privatization, decentralization) have altered
human-environment relations in Latin America and specifically the impacts of the restructuring of the use and rights to land, water, and forest on climate impacts and vulnerability. For example, free trade and the loss of agricultural subsidies has produced complex responses that include land abandonment and agricultural intensification in Mexico, Chile and Costa Rica. As this and other papers in this session will discuss, changes in land use (e.g. crop mix, input use) have significant and multiple implications for vulnerability. Water and utility privatization has resulted in increasingly unequal access to irrigation water and urban drinking water and decentralization has created new sets of decision makers who must try and respond to drought and climate change in Argentina, Bolivia, and Mexico. The commodification and privatization of forests has created new demands and institutions for forest management that have restructured watersheds and land use in ways that change the vulnerability of downstream residents and those that relied on forests for part of the livelihoods in Chile and Mexico. Resistance to globalized and neoliberal resource policies has created new alliances for environmental protection and a new set of actors for whom climate change is yet one more stress and for whom local and global climate policies are of distant but vital concern. |
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| A new approach for quantifying relative vulnerability, applied to an irrigated agricultural system in the Yaqui Valley, Mexico |
| Author: Luers, Amy Lynd
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| Co-Author(s): D.B. Lobell, C.L. Addams, L.S. Sklar, P.A. Matson |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Stanford University |
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| Panel Title: Methodologies for Assessing Vulnerability and Sustainability |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Vulnerability, the degree to which human and environmental systems are likely to experience harm due to a perturbation or stress, has in recent years become a central focus of the global change and sustainability science research community. However, a lack of robust metrics to model and measure vulnerability within and across systems has limited the effectiveness of this concept in environmental assessments. As a result, few comparative vulnerability assessments exist and those that do often provide only general conceptual insights into the causes of vulnerability (e.g., increased poverty decreases adaptive capacity). We propose quantifying vulnerability as the expected value of the sensitivity of selected variables of concern (e.g. income, agricultural yield, ecosystem function) to identified stressors (e.g. climate variability and change) divided by the state of the variables of concern relative to a threshold of damage (e.g. poverty). This measure captures three common vulnerability concepts- sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity - in a single metric, and in matrix form provides a framework for integrating multiple stressors. This new approach provides a system of analysis that can be applied locally but that also provides structure for comparison within and across systems to directly test hypotheses about the causes of vulnerability. We illustrate the utility of this approach in an assessment of the agricultural zone in the Yaqui Valley, Mexico. Using a combination of remote sensing, socio-economic and biophysical data we model the vulnerability implications of climate variability and change. The model output includes maps of differential vulnerabilities and of relative adaptive capacities within the Yaqui Valley irrigation district. Our analysis highlights the relative importance of management, soil characteristics, and market fluctuations in determining the vulnerability of Valley farmers. |
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| Post-Kyoto burden sharing |
| Author: Luukkanen, Jyrki
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| Institutional Affiliation: Finland Futures Research Centre |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: docs/Luukkanen.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| The international burden sharing in the climate policy can be based on several different criteria ranging from efficiency to equity. The burden sharing of the Kyoto Protocol was based a kind of combination of grandfathering and ad hoc negotiated results. While the Kyoto emission reduction targets are set for industrialized countries e.g. the United States has required 'meaningful participation of key developing countries'.
The paper discusses the problems of target setting from different perspectives and tries to clarify some criteria, which could be used to achieve efficient and acceptable allocation based on equity principles. |
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| Using meterological and air quality monitoring data to understand community health impacts of air pollution |
| Author: MacKinnon, Barbara M.
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| Co-Author(s): David Brown, Barbara Kerr, Kenneth Maybee |
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| Institutional Affiliation: New Brunswick Lung Association |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Daily hospital admission and mortality data for respiratory and cardiovascular illnesses, air quality monitoring data, and meterological data from 1999 and 2000 have been analysed for the community of Fredericton, New Brunswick. The analysis shows clear associations between elevated levels of particulate matter and respiratory and cardiovascular hospital admissions. Discussion of this study will highlight the importance of 1)meteorological characteristics (temperature, wind, inversions) 2)human exposure considerations (time of day, activity level, respiratory rate)and 3)community-relevant data. These parameters determine, respectively, levels of pollution in ambient air, amount of pollutant inhaled, and level of public interest in taking risk-reduction actions. The findings of this study are relevant to climate change and associated impacts of heat on air pollution and health, providing a new way of examining data to increase sensitivity of results, and increasing community engagement. |
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| Quantifying the Spatial Issues in Human Dimensions Research |
| Author: Mageean, Deirdre M
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| Co-Author(s): Raymond J. O'Connor, Suzanne Cashman Rain, N. Scott Urquhart |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Department of Resource Economics and Policy, University of Maine |
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| Panel Title: Population and Environment Research: Taking Stock and Looking Forward |
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| Paper Link: docs/mageean.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| Global assessment of human-environment interactions is intrinsically hierarchical, requiring that we infer how local and regional processes will manifest themselves in regional and global conditions, respectively. But the ability to embed local intensive case studies of social and ecological processes within spatially extensive regional or global demographic and environmental data is hindered by the presence of spatial autocorrelation. Spatial autocorrelation - wherein nearby points are more alike in social and ecological characteristics than are more remote points - can create, as it were, hills and valleys of data similarity that correspond to real world, local or regional human communities and ecosystems that are very different one from another. Many conventional statistical techniques, notably multiple linear regression, fail in these circumstances. First, they require either response-predictor relationships constant across the sampling domain or require a priori knowledge of the form of the non-uniformity present. Second, the presence of spatial autocorrelation violates key assumptions made in such conventional statistical analysis. Following our earlier, prototype applications of classification and regression tree (CART) analysis to human-environment data, several members of the IHDP community have obtained promising results on applying CART analysis within their own studies. Yet CART analysis is itself vulnerable to statistical artefacts arising from spatial autocorrelation. We present here a method of extending CART analysis to address spatial autocorrelation issues in spatially extensive human-environment studies, using socioeconomic and ecological datasets for the conterminous United States as examples. We show how semivariogram functions can be incorporated into CART analysis to model the spatial dependence of the data. We show that, by combining conventional with spatially-aware CART analysis, one can determine where (geographically) spatial autocorrelation modifies one's estimate of the strength of the link between humans and environment (or vice versa). Finally we use CART models to partition the spatial dependence of human-environment responses between 1) spatial patterning in the environmental predictor variables and 2) spatial patterning in human activity that is entirely independent of the environmental predictors. These techniques provide a solution to overcoming a major technical hurdle in modeling the human dimensions of the environment. |
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| Business and the Precautionary Principle: From Divergent Perspectives to an Integrated Framework |
| Author: Maguire, Steve
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| Co-Author(s): Amelia Clarke |
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| Institutional Affiliation: McGill University |
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| Panel Title: The Precautionary Principle and Global Environmental Change: Taking Stock and Moving Forward |
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| Paper Link: docs/Maguire.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| The precautionary principle has important implications for business. Its application can lead to, for example, bans on firms' products (e.g. chemicals) or activities (e.g. fishing). Some argue that recourse to the precautionary principle can be a disguised form of protectionism, and offer the EC's ban on beef produced with growth-promoting hormones as an example. Business representatives have claimed that the principle is generating an undesirable climate of uncertainty and that it stifles innovation, pointing to what they see as unwarranted controversy over genetically modified crops as evidence. On the other hand, proponents of the principle argue that its application can provide significant benefits to firms, such as better risk management, improved stakeholder relations, and more innovation through the development of safer and cleaner products. Yet discussions of precaution are rare in management journals.
This paper fills that gap. It introduces the precautionary principle, reviews the debates surrounding its application (including a summary and analysis of the views of business leaders who have spoken publicly on the issue), and discusses its implications for business around several key themes. The paper brings together work from environmental studies and law with work from the organizational literatures on technology and innovation management, stakeholder management, and risk management to develop an integrated framework for understanding the business implications of the precautionary principle. The argument is as follows: (1) the precautionary principle lowers the threshold of scientific knowledge required to trigger deliberations about appropriate responses to potential environmental and health risks; (2) thus, application of the precautionary principle has the effect of creating and empowering more relevant 'stakeholders' for any given firm [stakeholder theory] or, using an alternative unit of analyis, more relevant 'social groups' for any given technology [social construction of technology theory]; (3) because risks imposed on these stakeholders or social groups are now, with the precautionary principle, more easily and quickly translated back into business risks for the firms generating them, the risk management, stakeholder management and innovation processes of firms will necessarily change. The paper discusses the nature and extent of these changes, and which firms will be most affected.
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| Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Responses |
| Author: Malayang, Ben
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| Institutional Affiliation: School of Environmental Science & Management, University of the Philippines Los Baños |
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| Panel Title: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment |
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| Paper Link: docs/Malayang.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| No abstract available. |
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| Influence of Category Aggregation on Land-Use/Cover Change Signals |
| Author: Malizia, Nicholas
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| Co-Author(s): R.G. Pontius, M.L. Cheuk |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Clark University |
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| Panel Title: Designing Landcover Change Models to Meet Policy Needs |
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| Paper Link: docs/Malizia.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| Land-use/cover change analysis has become an extremely important method of examining global change. Scientists study change in the landscape over time to determine its historical causes and effects as well as to model future landscape change situations. Such research directly affects natural resource management and conservation policy. The Kyoto Protocol's system of carbon credits provides a global example of how such research affects policy. The Kyoto system relies heavily on land-use/cover change information and the predictive models that are developed based on this information. Therefore, precise determination of change signals from the landscape by scientists is critical to the accuracy of the predictive models that are developed and consequently the effectiveness of the policy that is enacted.
Aggregation of land-use/cover categories is a common practice in the analysis of land-use/cover change; however, a naïve approach to this practice can significantly alter the amount of change exhibited by the landscape. Thus, in order to accurately report change signals, the effect of aggregation must be considered. This paper uses the cross-tabulation matrix to show that naïve category aggregation can significantly reduce the amount of net change while increasing total change and change associated with a loss of a category in one location accompanied by a gain of that same category at some other location (swap). Because the maximum amount of change is determined by combining categories that exhibit a net gain with other categories exhibiting a net gain and categories exhibiting a net loss with other categories exhibiting a net loss, aggregating categories with dissimilar net change can yield a deceptively small change signal. Such inaccuracy could have far reaching effects, especially in the form of inaccurate land-use/cover change models and ineffective policy. The concepts presented in the paper are illustrated using theoretical models and empirical data acquired through the collaboration of NSF-funded Human-Environment Regional Observatory sites across the United States.
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| Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) & Indian Forests: Opportunities and Challenges |
| Author: Mandal, Maitreyi
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| Institutional Affiliation: Indian Institute of Management Calcutta |
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| Panel Title: Regional Cooperation and Climate Change |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| One of the tools for reducing the release of carbon dioxide, the largest component of greenhouse gas emissions, is carbon sequestration in oceans and terrestrial ecosystems. Conference of Parties of Kyoto Protocol in the sixth meeting (CoP6) decided to implement policies related to Land Use Land Use Change and forestry (LULUCF) to slow greenhouse warming. The Kyoto protocol was negotiated during 1987, under which the industrialized (Annex-B) countries are expected to reduce the GHG emissions by 5.5% by 2008 to 012 over the 1990 level. The Annex B countries (with GHG emissions reduction commitment) are expected to achieve this by domestic as well as through Kyoto mechanisms such as the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), Joint Implementation (JI) and Emissions Trade (ET). The protocol suggests that management of natural terrestrial carbon sinks, primarily afforestation and restoration at a global scale, can increase sink strength and thus reduce atmospheric CO2. CDM is the only mechanism, relevant to the discussion on developing countries. As of July 2001, afforestation and reforestation activities under CDM have been ratified. India, like many other developing countries is experiencing deforestation, degradation of existing forests, pasture and crop lands, decline in biodiversity, biomass shortages and loss of livelihoods to forest dependent communities. The carbon pool for the Indian forests has been estimated to be 2026.72Mt for the year 1995 and annual carbon uptake at least 0.125Gt of CO2 from the atmosphere in that year. CDM can provide an opportunity for implementing innovative technical, institutional and financial interventions to promote forest regeneration, biodiversity conservation and development and ultimately contributing to enhancing carbon sinks. Global Climate change agreements and financing systems could further support and accelerate local initiatives that are recreating millions of hectares of carbon sinks. The paper explores the possibilities those have emerged in post Kyoto regime to estimate the role that CDM is posed to play in Indian Forestry Sector and the challenges that lie ahead.
Key words: Kyoto protocol, CDM, climate change, forest. |
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| Defining Maritime Boundaries: Questions of environment, international politics, and local communities |
| Author: Marshall, Joan
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| Institutional Affiliation: McGill University |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| This paper examines an unresolved boundary dispute in the Gulf of Maine, between the United States and Canada, in an area known as the ?Grey Zone?. In the context of a juridically weak framework of principles for determining international maritime boundaries, the paper examines the case of a small fishing community caught between conflicting national interests. Left unresolved with the 1984 ICJ decision defining the "Hague Line", this dispute is made more problematic because of ambiguous objectives and conflicting agendas between national governments, between state and community levels, and within the community itself. In addition, there is no agreement on the nature of the delimitation problem, as one of a linear boundary, or as a new zone demarcating an area of marine and resource management. Governments have to recognize that maritime boundaries have a significant role to play in resource management (Townsend-Gault, 1997), and that the Grey Zone problem needs to be seen as a resource issue, not a boundary dispute. For fishermen on both sides of the border, who fish under different regulatory regimes, settlement of this problem is crucial to their livelihoods and way of life. |
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| Drivers of Land Use Changes in Peri-Urban Areas of the Dar es Salaam City, Tanzania. |
| Author: Masanja, Aloyce
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| Institutional Affiliation: University College of Lands and Agricultural Studies, Department of Urban and Regional Planning |
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| Panel Title: The Interactions between Global Environmental Change and Urban Processes (Session 2) |
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| Paper Link: docs/Masanja.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| This paper is concerned with analysis of driving forces and land use changes in the city of Dar es Salaam. The paper begins with examination of the candidates driving forces of land use changes. The findings indicate that, the possible forces driving land-use changes can be grouped into six categories: population; level of technology; political economy; political structure; attitudes and values. All the six categories have been analyzed and impacts on land use changes established.
Then the paper examines the known and unknowns: The six categories (above) have both emperical bases and theoretical rationales. The findings indicate that many candidate driving forces are associated with environmental change over the long term and local level. In Dar es Salaam city, population, technological capacity, and affluence have all increased, just as the land use has changed. At the same time, social organization, attitudes, and values have also undergone profound changes. The specific role of any of the identified driving forces is demonstrated at the local scale of analysis.
A number of empirical relationships between driving forces and changes at the local scale have been analyzed. Comparative regional assessments, however, show considerable variability among those variables and environmental impacts. Comparative regional analysis suggest that common situations exists and that classifying them will improve our understanding and modeling of land use change.
Finally, the paper present a model that consider the relationship between environmental change and population, affluence and technology i.e. I= PAT . The relationships of these three categories of driving forces with environmental change have been statistically analyzed and measures are suggested for each category.
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| Voices from the Grassroot: a study sustainable development from a developing world community based organisation's perspective |
| Author: Mashego, Lebogang P.
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| Institutional Affiliation: Alumni-University of the Witwatersrand
Monash University |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| For more than five decades, the United Nations has been rolling out action plans aimed at 'redressing' the plight of the world's poor
masses. All of these initiatives have had little success in developing underdeveloped part of this world. Agenda 21 is the UN's latest
initiative and it has been hailed as the most progressive development policy ever. This paper reviews Agenda 21 from the perspective of those involve in community based development. At a theoretical level this study reviews sustainable development from a socio-economic perspective and questions the practicality of attempts aimed at conserving biodiversity without challenging capitalist modes of social organisation. Agenda 21 is also reviewed in action in Meadowlands - South Africa. The principal objective being to highlight the mismatch that exists between western and developing world perceptions of environment and development. Findings of the study hint that Agenda 21 is set to have the same success rate as its predecessors. This is mainly due to the fact that this strategy is oblivious human-nature relations that are dictated by capitalism which are also explained by Maslow's hierarchy of needs. |
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| Human Dimensions in Sustainable Land Use Management in Degraded Land Areas of Nepal |
| Author: Maskey, Ram Bahadur
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| Co-Author(s): Binod P. Sharma, Madhav Joshi |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Land Care Center -Nepal (LCCN)
P O Box 4333
Kathamandu, Nepal |
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| Panel Title: Fragile Ecosystems |
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| Paper Link: docs/Maskey.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| Nepal is a mountainous country with diverse topography, climate and vegetation. The country's landscape is highly fragile and dissected. With the increased population pressure on the limited agricultural land for food, fiber and shelter even the marginal lands have been encroached for cultivation. The problem of land degradation is severe specially due to soil erosion and traditional human land use activities.. This paper examines the historical trends of population growth and changes in land use patterns in the country. Periodic changes in land use patterns are then correlated with the population growth. An assessment of land fragmentation is made by analyzing the changes in number of households and their average sizes along with the changes of population engaged in agriculture. Also, the system of land tenure over the period is highlighted. The state of the environment at present, with particular emphasis on soil erosion and land degradation is examined. Attempts are made to assess the effects of both the biophysical and human activities on the state of the environment. With the historical background of the existing situation, some outstanding issues are identified and prioritized. During the last few decades, technological interventions for checking land degradation and for vegetation recovery have been implemented through various agencies. Brief reviews of these attempts have been made with a view to identify valid reasons for both successful and unsuccessful attempts. Based on such analysis, some measures have been recommended for sustainable management of land resources by minimizing untoward land degradation and by promoting vegetation recovery. On one side it is recognized that land management options that provide quick returns in the short run may have adverse effects on the environment in the long run. Conversely, the local farm communities without having immediate economic benefits from such activities may not adopt even some well-proven environment-friendly programmes on the other. Hence, it is very important to have a rational look for converging these aspects into the "win-win" interventions by simultaneously improving economically beneficial shorter-term local options in harmony with environmentally sustainable longer-term benefits while recommending appropriate land use management practices for the farmers at large. |
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| Lessons learned from the policy-interlinkage issues between the Montreal Protocol and climate change agreements for the design of more effective environmental regimes. |
| Author: Matsumoto, Yasuko
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| Institutional Affiliation: National Institute for Environmental Studies |
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| Panel Title: Institutional Dimensions of Global Climate Change |
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| Paper Link: docs/matsumoto.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| Coordinating international policy interlinkages among a number of global environmental problems is becoming increasingly vital as the design of international and domestic institutions becomes more detailed and complex. The powerful greenhouse gases HFCs have posed the problem of how to resolve a policy contradiction that arose between two agreements: substances used to solve one problem aggravated another problem. Currently both treaties discuss policy interlinkage problems under the decisions of their respective COPs. In that sense, this is one of the best cases for debating regime design for policy interlinkage. Henceforth integrated policymaking, in both the international and domestic spheres, that takes into account perspectives on interlinkage will perhaps be an important key to preventing trade-offs in global environmental protection and maximizing the effectiveness of such protection. From the perspective of interlinkage, this paper reviews how these two agreements have addressed the HFC issue over the past 13 years and examines Japan's domestic policies and actions, then on this basis investigates now the use of HFCs was encouraged and discusses what lessons can be learned for the effective design of regimes in the future. |
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| Asian Early Warning System For Food |
| Author: Matsumura, Kan-ichiro
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| Co-Author(s): Kiminori Gemba,Yasutomi Nakano,Toshiaki Ichinose,Ryosuke Shibasaki |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Kwansei Gakuin University(Asoc.Prof)
University of Tokyo(Researcher)
National Institute for Environmental Studies(Visiting Researcher) |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| The author's previous study 'Modeling the demand and supply structure for food in Asia' forecasts that demand for food will exceed its supply in India and China by the year 2010. Both these countries comprise over 40% of the total world population. This shortage in supply will create intense competition for food imports amongst Asian countries. The increase in food demand in China will have an immeasurable influence on its neighboring countries. It is imperative to build an Asian Early Warning System (AEWS) related to resources such as water, food, electricity and the environment in Asia. The AEWS will be a useful educational tool not only for policy makers but also for citizens. People will be able to understand when and where food shortage is expected to take place, and will be able to think more responsibly about sustainable development. |
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| Democracy and Deforestation: Questions of Political and Environmental Change in Kenya's Mau Forest |
| Author: Matter, Scott
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| Co-Author(s): John Galaty and Stephen Moiko |
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| Institutional Affiliation: McGill University |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: docs/matter.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| During a period of political change, environmental conservation discourse was used to support calls for farmers to vacate forest-lands bordering water catchment areas in Kenya¿s Rift Valley province. In 1993, an eviction order combined with other factors to precipitate ethnic clashes in the Enoosopukia area, displacing up to 30,000 people from the area and creating landless communities. We show how globally acceptable conservation discourse paradoxically facilitates unacceptable human rights abuses without guaranteeing sustainable resource |
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| Assessment of social vulnerability and adaptation to climate variability and change among farmers in central Argentina: importance of the subjective dimension |
| Author: Maurutto, María Cecilia
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| Co-Author(s): Marta G. Vinocur, Cesar Quiroga and Roberto A. Seiler |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Universidad Nacional de Rio Cuarto |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: docs/maurutto.jpg |
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| Abstract |
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| Farmers of the central and southern region of the Cordoba province (Argentina) are not exempt from the effects of the economical and social regime consolidated since 1980 in all Latin America and the Caribbean. The combination of deep state mutations with the macro level transformations and the climatic impacts rebounds in their internal structures and in the farmer's subjectivity.
The perception of a constant threat of loss, because of economical, political or climatic unpredictable causes which are beyond their control, has corroded the systems of solidarity and the adaptation strategies that have been historically implemented, and that for many years constituted the most effective of their available resources.
This work focuses in the possible gap between the social perception and the social magnitude of a problem, such as the climate change effects, emphasizing the importance of considering the socio-cultural aspects of the farmers in the assessment of their vulnerability.
Furthermore, this study will adopt some elements for the comprehension of the social vulnerability and the adaptation to climate variability and change, through the analysis of the social and cultural identities, the imaginatios and the social representations of the farmers, focusing in those socio-cultural factors connected to the climate that can prevent or facilitate the incorporation of new adaptive strategies, present in the subjective processes that build reality.
It also pretends to revalue the articulation between scientific knowledge and the knowledge of the subjects that are vulnerable and the ones who are responsible of implementing the adaptation rules, supporting itself in that the reactions to reality are not a mechanical response but a response mediated by a series of subjective processes that build the reality which the subjects modify, or to which they respond or adapt.
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| Integrating Scientific, Local and Indigenous Knowledge for Management and Decision-making on Environment, Climate and Health Issues |
| Author: Maynard, Nancy
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| Co-Author(s): Boris Yurchak |
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| Institutional Affiliation: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center |
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| Panel Title: Environmental Change and Human Health |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| As scientists and policy-makers from both indigenous and non-indigenous communities begin to build closer partnerships to address common sustainability issues such as the health impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities, it becomes increasingly important to create shared information management systems which integrate all relevant factors for optimal information sharing and decision-making. This paper describes the development and progress of a new GIS-based system designed to bring local and indigenous traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) together with scientific and engineering knowledge, remote sensing, and information technologies to address health-related environment, weather, climate, pollution and land use change issues for improved decision-making. The system will include a comprehensive analysis of relevant current and historical TEK, local, remotely sensed and other data and observations for analysis, measuring, and monitoring parameters of interest (e.g., snow cover, rainfall, temperature, ice condition, vegetation, infrastructure, fires). An easily-accessible archive with inventories of useful data and observations for shared use in geographic areas of interest for time series studies will be an important component of this system. Protection of indigenous culturally sensitive information will be respected through appropriate data protocols. A mechanism which enables easy information sharing among all participants, which is real time and geo-referenced and which allows interconnectivity with remote sites is also being designed into the system for maximum communication among partners. A description of the status of the system and its components as well as a preliminary application of the system will be presented. |
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| Let them breath smoke |
| Author: Mazzi, Eric
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| Co-Author(s): Hadi Dowlatabadi |
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| Institutional Affiliation: University of British Columbia |
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| Panel Title: Carnegie Mellon Approach to Human Dimensions of Global Change |
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| Paper Link: docs/mazzi.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| Some in the less industrialized world have accused climate change to be a new form of Imperialism. They are concerned that climate change policy hinder developments that can address proximate and tangible public needs.
In an attempt to garner broader support for climate policy, the IPCC scientists have promoted the notion of "ancillary benefits" to climate policy, where reduction of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion also promises lowered concentrations of known harmful air pollutants.
We examined the scientific foundations of the "ancillary benefits" argument to find that it applies concepts relevant to 1.7 billion inhabitants of the more industrialised nations to the predicament of all global citizens ignoring the fact that 4.3 billion people rely on biomass for more than 75% of their domestic energy needs. We find that for the vast majority of the world's population a fossil based fuel source would reduce exposure to air pollution by more than a factor of three. Policies impeding transition to cleaner fossil fuels will have to offer an affordable cleaner biomass based alternative or would surely condemn billions to an early grave.
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| Land Change Trajectories in the Tropics: Evidence from the Comparative Analysis of Case Studies |
| Author: McConnell, William
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| Co-Author(s): Eric Keys |
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| Institutional Affiliation: LUCC Focus1 Office
Indiana University
Bloomington, IN, US |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| A variety of approaches have been used to assess the causes of land change in the tropics, focusing on a key outcomes such as the removal of forest cover, intensification of agriculture, desertification and urban expansion. In assesing assess the role of biophysical and socio-economic causal factors, studies generally follow one of two approaches: fine-scale case studies; and broad cross-sectional techniques. Much more rare are intermediate analyses, that strive to combine the richness of case studies with the power of generalization gained from larger samples. This paper explores the advantages and disadvantages of this intermediate approach and presents results from one such effort, focused on trajectories of agricultural change in the tropics based on the comparative analysis of existing case study literature. The analysis confirms the major variables suggested by the agricultural change literature. As in companion studies on tropical deforestation and desertification, distinct regional trends emerged. The implications of this research for global change science, and particularly for the conduct of future case studies, are discussed. |
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| Multiple scales and regulatory mismatches in global change processes: the case of salmon aquaculture in British Columbia |
| Author: McDaniels, Tim
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| Institutional Affiliation: University of British Columbia |
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| Panel Title: Carnegie Mellon Approach to Human Dimensions of Global Change |
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| Paper Link: docs/mcdaniels.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| While attention to assessment at multiple scales is explored at length in the literature, there has been less attention to multiple levels of regulatory decision-making, and the need for coordination and appropriate linkages among these.
This paper explores the potential for regulatory gaps or mismatches in the multiple scales at which regulatory decisions are made. It uses a case study of salmon aquaculture in British Columbia. An initial section of the presentation draws on a taxonomy introduced by Cash and Moser to explore the potential for gaps in assessment at multiple scales. Then the case study of salmon aquaculture is introduced as an example of an industry that is creating rapid changes in coastal zones in certain countries around the world. The multiple levels of regulatory decision-making for salmon aquaculture are introduced, as well as actors, and legal frameworks that are relevant at the various decision levels. Two examples of regulatory gaps are discussed. One arises from the nature of the regulatory process for siting new facilities. It proceeds on a site-by-site basis, and has statutory responsibility for considering cumulative effects. Yet it is clear from interviews that cumulative effects are not meaningfully addressed in the current process. Yet it is this broad regional level, representing the cumulative consequences of the total number of facilities, where many of the major controversies over the ecological consequences of salmon aquaculture arise. A second case examines how local decision-makers concerned with zoning in a municipality refused to change the zoning to allow siting an aquaculture facility, based on reasons related to broader regional or coast-wide impacts, rather than local impacts. We argue that this situation illustrates what could happen when the regional and national regulators are perceived as not addressing the fundamental regulatory issues. Cross- scale issues arise in which the regulatory practice at one scale is not seen by others as adequate, and so creates pressures at other scales. We conclude with some preliminary discussion of what might be the characteristics of the ideal regulatory regimes for multi-scale decisions required for global change processes.
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| Crossing spatial analysis, households typologies and livestock economies to understand deforestation processes in the Brazilian Amazon. The case of Uruara in Para State |
| Author: Mertens, benoit
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| Co-Author(s): M.G. Piketty, P. Pacheco, J. B. da Veiga, L.A. Ferreira, A. Venturieri, J.F. Tourrand |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Center International in Forestry Research/
Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| The Amazon is the largest tropical forest area on Earth, and is undergoing rapid deforestation since the last four decades Forest conversions are mostly located in frontier areas distributed along the so-called 'arc of deforestation' and conversion of forest into pasture is the main land use change. However, within this large zone, various land use change processes are interacting and the causes of land uses changes are not uniform from one region to another. From several case studies in the state of Pará (Brazil), the current project aims at analyzing how these landscape dynamics in contrasted frontier areas are related to infrastructure development, ecological conditions, zoning policies, household assets accumulation processes and to the organization of the production, consumption and marketing chains of livestock products. This paper will present the results for one test site, the region of Uruara, along the Transamazon Highway. In this specific region, smallholders are amongst the main agents of land use changes and there has been a strong government involvement in the process of agricultural colonization. Crossing spatial analyses, farmers surveys for three years (1994-1997-2000) and livestock economics studies allow to improve our understanding of deforestation and to characterize the role and impact of various natural and anthropic factors in the location and development of the main types of farmers. The results and policy implications will be discussed with regards to a recent similar analysis carried out in the South of Para, where colonization has been more spontaneous and were large cattle ranchers are more involved in the process of land use change.
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| Efficient Nitrogen Fertilization Management Using El Niño Forecasts |
| Author: Meza, Francisco
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| Institutional Affiliation: Facultad de Agronomia e Ingenieria Forestal
Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile |
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| Panel Title: Nutrient Cycles and Climate Change |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| This paper addresses the use of climatic information derived form El Niño forecasts for the selection of economically efficient nitrogen fertilization strategies. Future ENSO states are determined by a simple autoregressive model of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA). The potential value of El Niño forecasts is illustrated for the location of Valdivia, Chile (39.4 S). The assessment of the value is made by using an integrated model that includes a weather generator (i.e. a Monte Carlo simulation of possible realizations of daily weather) conditioned on the phases of El Niño, a crop simulation model that allow the assessment of the impact of different levels of nitrogen fertilization on the final outcome, and a decision model that explores the changes in the optimal decisions made by the farmer using SSTA information.
Although this paper is focused on economical aspects of decision making using climatic information, the incorporation of environmental constraints that seek the identification of economically feasible and environmentally safe solutions is discussed as well. |
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| Air Pollution Mortality Cost in Angul-Talcher Urban Area in Orissa, India: An Economic Analysis |
| Author: Mishra, Mrutyunjaya
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| Institutional Affiliation: Science College,Hinjilicut,
HINJILICUT-761102
GANJAM, ORISSA, INDIA |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Air pollution is one of the most serious environmental concerns in urban areas, especially in view of its adverse effects on human health. The interest in the association between human health and air pollution has grown substantially in recent years. Epidemiological studies in several countries established the conclusive link between air pollution and adverse health effects. In developing countries around the world, an estimated 0.5 million-1.0 million people die prematurely each year as a result of exposure to urban air pollution . The air pollution problem is particularly serious in the rapidly urbanizing places of South and South East Asia, where the growing number of urban dwellers are exposed to unacceptable levels of pollution. Taking this idea into account this study intends to assess the economic benefits of reduced mortality in Angul-Talcher area in Orissa,India.
The study draws heavily on the methodology developed by Ostro (1994) and on the dose response function estimated for the study area. The study is built upon a dose response function estimated for specifically for the study area. The economic benefits of reduced mortality have been estimated using the human capital approach on the basis of potential Years of Life Lost (YOLL) .
It is evident from the study that increased all cause annual mortality is strongly associated with SPM. The relation between SPM and mortality is found to be robust and statistically significant [P=0.0057; coefficient value (ß) = 0.09 {± 0.033}; CI=99%)]. The regression results imply a 10 µg/m3 reduction of SPM lowers premature mortality by 0.9%. Taking the population of the study area and average Years of Life Lost into account a total sum of Rs.61.66 millions is sustained by the people as an annual cost of air pollution in Angul-Talcher only due to premature mortality which looks startlingly high for a backward region in a developing country. Taking the above findings there is an urgent need for policy makers to address the problem of pollution in a judicious manner |
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| Institutions as Drivers and Responses: A Critical Assessment of Data Needs |
| Author: Mitchell, Ronald
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| Co-Author(s): Marc Levy |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Department of Political Science, University of Oregon |
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| Panel Title: Data on the Human Dimensions of Environmental Change: Lessons from the Past and Future Opportunities |
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| Paper Link: docs/Mitchell.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| What data on institutions is needed to move research on Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change forward? Institutions - international agreements, national and local governments and regulatory agencies, cross-cutting boundary organizations, assessment processes, transnational issue networks, non-governmental organizations, and so on - feature prominently in our analytical frameworks and qualitative case studies. Yet in many avenues of Human Dimensions research one can identify the need for data sets that are more quantitative, more comprehensive, and more comparable than what emerges from the case study literature. The supply of such data, in spite of some positive examples, falls far short of demand. In this paper we document the demand for data on institutions with reference to research programs that rely on institutional variables as drivers of, and responses to, global environmental change. We show how cases of supply of such data has helped support advances in knowledge, pointing to advances in such areas as corruption, governance, and multilateral agreements. We also show how the absence of robust data sources has held back research on such issues as transnational networks, comparative domestic resource management regimes, and vulnerability. We identify critical gaps in the supply of relevant data as they apply to future research needs and outline a strategy for filling those gaps that builds on lessons learned from the experience of the past decade. |
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| Innovative and Sustainable Energy Technologies: The Role of Venture Capital |
| Author: Moore, William
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| Co-Author(s): Rolf Wüstenhagen |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Institute for Economy and the Environment (IWÖ-HSG), University of St. Gallen |
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| Panel Title: Innovation and Technology for Managing Human-Environment Systems |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| This paper will present the preliminary results of a study being conducted to determine the current role venture capital plays in promoting innovative and sustainable energy technologies.
The venture capital segment of a capital market provides investment funding for relatively high risk but often groundbreaking and innovative research that can lead to the market introduction of new cost-effective technologies. Recently, a number of new venture capital funds have emerged in Europe and North America that are targeting sustainability oriented ventures, with sustainable energy technologies being the most common investment theme. Our exploratory research focuses on the role that venture capital has played so far and will play in the near future in supporting the greening of the energy industry, an industry that is of crucial importance for addressing Sustainable Development.
To answer this question, the study is evaluating how corporations, entrepreneurs, governments, universities and other research-oriented institutions create innovative and sustainable energy technologies and how specifically they are affected by the provision of venture capital or the lack thereof. Additionally, the study is evaluating how venture capital institutions identify, evaluate, and fund innovative sustainable energy projects. The study, therefore, looks at the problem from the perspective of both the supply of and demand for venture capital. |
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| Water Resource Management and Climate Variability: Possibilities for Transboundary Knowledge Transfer on the U.S.-Mexico Border |
| Author: Morehouse, Barbara
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| Institutional Affiliation: Associate Research Scientist, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth, The University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona. |
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| Panel Title: Neoliberal Transitions in the Water Sector: Regional Implications |
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| Paper Link: docs/Morehouse.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| Recent progress in seasonal to interannual climate forecasts have presented new opportunities for integrated science into water resource policy and decisions. Advances in the processes driving El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and decadal-scale variability in the northern Atlantic and Pacific Oceans are the primary forces behind these forecast improvements. At the same time, advances in knowledge about the nature and impacts of past climatic conditions, at instrumental and paleo time scales, present a wealth of information about climatic variability at scales ranging from the local to the global. Nevertheless, development of climate information useful to decision makers tends to be restricted by international boundaries. This paper critically examines efforts to provide relevant, useful, and usable climate and related hydrologic information at regional to local scales in the Southwestern United States and in the U.S.-Mexico broder regions. |
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| Corporate-Community Partnerships in Amazonian Indigenous Communities |
| Author: Morsello, Carla
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| Institutional Affiliation: School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia and Capes (Brazil) |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Over the last fifteen years, corporate-community partnerships have been established in Amazonia as a win-win approach to foster environmental conservation and to improve the life conditions of local communities. Pioneered by foreign companies initiatives, these agreements relying on the fair trade of forest products have recently been followed by several enterprises established independently by major Brazilian companies, or fostered by NGOs. In spite of that, controversies about the efficacy of the approach still abound, as our knowledge about the partnerships lacks empirical and systematic evidence.
Adopting the trade agreement between the Kayapó village of A'Ukre and the UK-based cosmetics company The Body Shop as a case study, I argue that corporate-community partnerships are not a panacea, but that particular market characteristics can mitigate the impacts. Based on a cross-sectional research design and relying on quantitative and qualitative data gathered over 14 months of fieldwork, the study focuses the impacts on social structure, the use of natural resources and the likelihood that fair trade activities overcome other more destructive land uses.
The study finds that some differentiation may occur even if activities are under indigenous control. Nevertheless, broadening opportunities and mirroring traditional activities may reduce impacts on social differentiation, inequality and culture. Furthermore, transformation in the use of natural resources can be minimised when certain production levels are not surpassed; and if incompatibilities with the traditional subsistence calendar, mainly swidden-agriculture, are absent. Finally, some problems defy the adoption of trade partnerships as alternatives to more destructive land uses, mainly: lower returns, subgroups benefited may differ and more impacting activities may not rely on direct effort. Even so, some agreements between communities and companies, in addition to the implementation of a portfolio of products and activities, may help to overcome these problems. These study results are important for planning less damaging markets in the context of indigenous communities, especially in those cases where market integration derives from local wishes. |
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| Industrial Transformation, a challenge for a new breed of engineers |
| Author: Mulder, Karel F.
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| Institutional Affiliation: Delft University of Technology |
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| Panel Title: Policy-Technology Interactions in Mitigating the Environmental Burden of Human Activities |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Global change can only be stopped by Industrial Transformation. Technological change is a key element in industrial transformation. Moreover, technology has to play a role in mitigating the effects of global environmental changes.
The knowledge infrastructure to develop technologies that could contribute to industrial transformation and mitigate the effects of global change is available in the industrialized world. However, this knowledge infrastructure is guided by various technological regimes that guide knowledge generation towards existing needs of the industrialised nations. The implications are that:
- R&D is directed towards the problems that are occurring or foreseen to occur within the time frame of industry planning. Long-term appropriation of research is impossible and so R&D directed towards long-term transformations is only supported by government agencies. Consequently, industrial commitment towards implementing the results of R&D is low.
- The results of R&D are specific to the conditions of industrialised nations. However, this is often unrecognised. The elite of underdeveloped nations is often keen to copy the technology of Western societies. Various failures of the past show that technology from industrialized nations is not always the right solution for regions that do not share the cultural and organisational traditions of industrialized society.
Engineers have been thoroughly criticized for their technical fix; their inclination to solve problems using technologies instead of integrated socio-technical problem solving. Gradually, the message has arrived that it is a challenge for the engineering community to create inherently clean technologies that use minimal resources. However, it takes a much longer period to show engineers that it is essential to integrate social skills and social analysis into engineering education to be able to recognise the global equity and democratic decision making issues that are part of SD too. This paper will analyse the recent changes that took place in a number of engineering institutions in Europe. The paper will sketch some guidelines for successful implementation of the issue of SD into engineering curricula in order to enable industrial transformation and the development of technologies to mitigate the consequences of global change. |
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| Plenary Presenter: Patterns of Development and Sustainability |
| Author: Munasinghe, Mohan
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| Institutional Affiliation: null |
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| Panel Title: Plenary: Patterns of Development and Sustainability |
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| Paper Link: docs/munasinghe_plenary.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| No abstract available. |
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| Stakeholder engagement in community-based management of conservation areas: an example from northern Mozambique |
| Author: Mushove, Patrick
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| Co-Author(s): Coleen Vogel |
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| Institutional Affiliation: University of Witwatersrand, South Africa |
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| Panel Title: Vulnerability and Adaptation Research in Southern Africa |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Conservation areas are an important source of various goods and services that, if efficiently managed, can contribute towards poverty alleviation and general maintenance of the local community's life-support systems. Such areas are also a form of carbon sinks, particularly in those regions undergoing significant land-cover and land-use change. In Africa, most conservation areas are subject to conflicting land-uses due to a combination of factors including histories of past land allocation and access to land, inappropriate selection of areas, misdirected and ineffective policies, uncoordinated legislation and human encroachment. In a case study of a forest reserve in northern Mozambique, stakeholders in a conservation area are shown to define themselves with respect to their geographical location, political mandates and socio-cultural and economic interests. Examination of various stakeholders' interactions revealed that interactions usually take the form of an environmental conflict management model in which stakeholders, with initially opposing interests, gradually engage each other in a negotiation process, building mutual trust around areas of common interest that eventually forge mutually beneficial partnerships. The level of mistrust among prospective stakeholders before the start of a project is, moreover, shown to be directly proportional to the amount of time required to build and nurse mutual trust. Politically motivated differences can be counterproductive requiring the role of non-partisan mediation. In order to achieve a sustainable solution in such cases, it is suggested that non-partisan facilitation should be withdrawn, only after local arrangements have been formally instituted and adopted by the stakeholders. In such a process the local stakeholders gradually start to take over the functions of non-partisan facilitation. As a corollary, the non-partisan facilitator should give high priority to local-level capacity building even if it means postponing the production of so-called physical benefits from the project. In order to maintain cohesion, stakeholders belonging to similar categories must be treated in the same way throughout the process. Carbon-trading negotiations with communities are used here as an example of how such stakeholder engagement can best be undertaken. We argue that good rapport is essential and that extensive educational campaigns may be required before such negotiations take place. |
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| The Folk Conceptualization of Property and Economic Flows in Rural Madagascar |
| Author: Muttenzer, Frank
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| Institutional Affiliation: Graduate Institute of Development Studies
Geneva
Switzerland |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| What is the relation between folk legal principles and economic flows related to forest biodiversity in Madagascar ?
In Madagascar, the conceptualisation of property by rural people is not primarily concerned with access to funds, ie. land, but with distribution of the flow of comprehensive income (ie. distribution of both the fruits and the burden of, or access to, labour) from market and/or subsistance produce. This folk ideology rests on the following three basic principles of distributive justice :
- Differential rewards for labour are just if based on equal opportunity to work. Fruits go to them who have applied their labour and industry. He who has cleared a piece of land may use it undisturbed by others, as long as he actually uses it.
- Equal opportunity to work. Friendly brotherhood of those who live side by side obliges first settlers to authorise migrant newcomers to cultivate.
- Self-conservation of going concerns is both transgenerational (reproduction of concerns) and intragenerational (arbitration of competing claims to self-conservation by several concerns). It also connotes coercion based on differential access to the state apparatus.
How efficient are efforts made by aid donors and the Malagasy government to regulate these environmental flows ?
Recent environmental legislation expects contractual joint management of economic flows related to fuelwood, tropical timber, or forest conversion for agriculture to be more efficient thab administrative resource control now widely recognised to be inefficient. This policy assumption however needs to be qualified since not all kinds of rules are negotiable. Neo-institutionalist property rights theory has focused mainly on change at the level of prescriptive rules, leaving aside analysis of constitutive principles one cannot agree upon because they are self-evident. I argue however that social validation of locally negotiated management contracts cannot be expected unless the contractual prescriptive rules express constitutive rules of a " folk theory of justice ". |
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| Problem of Fit between Institutions and Environment: Empirical Evidences from the Rhine River Basin |
| Author: Myint, Tun
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| Institutional Affiliation: Indiana University, Bloomington, IN, USA |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: docs/Myint.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| Governance of global environmental change is inherently a political process. It is a relatively unique political process because biogeophysical systems of environment are essentially non-human actors in the ecosystem which is composed of both human and biogeophysical systems. Human actions are constrained by the evolving rules of biogeophysical system in addition to human-created rules. In order to analyze institutions-environment interaction, we need to conceptually treat biogeophysical systems of environment as an actor rather than a factor in environmental governance.
Political process in governance of global environmental change is about crafting institutions (governance strategies, rules, and norms) to address both human problems and environmental problems simultaneously. Empirical and theoretical understanding of global environmental change caused by human actions can be addressed by examining whether these human institutions fit biogeophysical systems of environment. Oran R. Young (2002: 56) coined this notion as ?Problem of Fit.? Based on the empirical findings from the institutional dimension in governance of the regional environmental change (Rhine pollution) in the transnational Rhine River Basin, this paper argues that there are two parts in the problem of fit as a whole. The first part is that human institutions have to fit human systems (economic, political, and social contexts). The second part is that human institutions have to fit biogeophysical systems they address. The paper further asserts that if institutions fit human systems within which they operate, it is more likely to achieve the fit to biogeophysical systems they address. Therefore, these two parts in problem of fit as a whole must be addressed simultaneously in order to cope with global environmental change from institutional dimensions at local, national, transnational, and global layers.
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| Ecosystems changes and society in Colombia |
| Author: Márquez, Germán
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| Institutional Affiliation: National University Colombia - Environmental Studies Institute and Biology Department |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| About 40% of Colombia's natural cover have been transformed, mainly into pastures for cattle and, much less, to agricultural uses. But most of these transformations ocurred in the caribbean and andean regions, where transformations may reach 80%, and most population is concentrated. More than half of the country municipalities have been loosing population; poverty and violence, both common and political, are frecuent and growing. Our concern is about possible conections between these different facts. About 10 years of study have been devoted to analize cover changes and their meaning for people, considering three main aspects: actual coverage, processes involved in transformation and empirical analysis of social and economic implications of changes. On these bases, hipothesis on relationships between natural offer, poverty and violence have been proposed. Historical natural resources abundance would be related to violence through labour hand scarcity, and with increasing poverty and migration as related with growing resource scarcity because of human impact on ecosystem base. Remnant cover reveals as a powerful indicator of both natural and social conditions when statistically correlated with indicators as population size and density, living conditions index, basic needs index ans land use, among others. Conceptual models relating ecosystem disturbance and poverty are proposed on these bases. |
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| Assessment of High-Risk Natural Disaster Hotspots - Landslide Analysis |
| Author: Nadim, Farrokh
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| Co-Author(s): Oddvar Kjekstad |
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| Institutional Affiliation: International Centre for Geohazards / Norwegian Geotechnical Institute |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: docs/Nadim.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| Landslides contribute to major disasters every year on a global scale, and the frequency of occurrence is on an upward trend. The major reasons for the observed increase in landslide disasters are the new situation with more extreme weather conditions combined with overexploitation of natural resources and deforestation, increased urbanization, and uncontrolled use of land. Recent examples are the mudflows in Venezuela in December 1999 with over 20 000 deaths, and the El Salvador earthquakes of 2001, which caused 600 deaths in just one landslide.
Allocating resources for natural hazard risk management is of high priority among the development banks and international agencies working in the developing countries. In February 2003, ProVention awarded a contract to the International Centre for Geohazards at Norwegian Geotechnical Institute to identify the countries and areas that are most exposed to risk from landslides. The ICG/NGI study is a part of a broader program at Columbia University where risks from all types of natural hazards are studied under a contract with ProVention.
The main objective of the study is to perform a databased, first-order identification of geographic areas that form the global landslide risk disaster hotspots on a non-national scale with main emphasis on developing countries. This will include combining the identified hazard with the vulnerability for people and infrastructure to obtain the risk. The probability of landslide occurrence is estimated from modelling of physical processes combined with statistics from past experience. The main input data for the assessment of landslide hazard are topography and slope angles, precipitation, seismic activity, soil type, hydrological condition, and vegetation.
Vulnerability depends mainly on socio-economic factors (population density, quality of infrastructure, collective organization) and the response capacity (prevention, capacity of aid intervention and mitigation). The vulnerability evaluation is performed in close cooperation with UNEP/Grid in Geneva.
The paper presents the methodology used in the global landslides hotspots project and some of the preliminary results. The approach can be used to evaluate the impact of different scenarios, for instance more extreme weather conditions and/or changes in the vegetation pattern because of land use practices, on the landslide hazard/risk.
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| Institutional adaptation to climate change: Flood responses at the municipal level in Norway |
| Author: Naess, Lars Otto
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| Co-Author(s): Guri Bang, Siri Eriksen, Jonas Vevatne |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Center for International Climate and Environmental Research - Oslo (CICERO) |
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| Panel Title: Adapting to Global Change: The Role of Social Networks and Institutions |
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| Paper Link: docs/Naess.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| This article examines the role institutions play in climate adaptation in Norway. Empirical findings from an examination of responses to the 1995 floods in two municipalities in the Glomma-Lågen river basin, Eastern Norway, are presented. We identify institutional factors that affect the adaptation potential at the local level, and factors that serve to constrain or facilitate the realisation of this potential. The study suggests that institutions provide important insights for understanding local responses to climate change as well as for designing future strategies for adaptation.
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| Overall Vulnerability of the Uruguayan Coastal Fishery System to Global Change in the Estuarine Front of the Rio de la Plata |
| Author: Nagy, Gustavo
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| Co-Author(s): G. Sención, W. Norbis, A. Ponce, G. Saona, R. Silva, M. Bidegain, V. Pshennikov |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Depart. de Ecología, Facultad de Ciencias, UdelaR, Montevideo, Uruguay
Project AIACC LA-32 |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: docs/Nagy.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| We address a number of crosscutting factors that are important for assessing overall vulnerability of the coastal fishery system in the estuarine front (EF) of the Rio de la Plata to cope with global change. Some drivers are: ENSO events, the increase in ambient temperature (³ 0.5º C), precipitation (> 20%), river flow (>30 %) and agricultural intensification over the last four decades. Consequent changes in the location and vertical structure of EF and development of symptoms of eutrophication are threats to both resilience of natural sector and livelihood of coastal communities. We are developing a matrix of overall vulnerability including climatic and non-climate proxy indicators. Present vulnerability is high because of insufficient financial resources and access to technology, high costs and dependency ratios, low knowledge, climatic, legal and cultural constraints. At the community level, present (2002-03) fishing indicators are fair (low boats activity and catch volume) because of extreme high river flow, high weather instability compared to non El Niño years and increasing fuel prize. Furthermore, at the national scale overall vulnerability has increased because of the deterioration of socioeconomic indicators over the last few years: decrease in GDP of about 40% and unsustainable levels of poverty (>25%), unemployment (>19%) and public debt (>110% of GNP). Consequently, non-climate pressures are greater than we expected from the base A1/ B2-2000 SRES-type national socioeconomic scenarios. Therefore, an overall decrease of economic and human resources coping capacity, and an increase in acquired vulnerability is expected for the next few years. The challenge is to develop ways to introduce integrated management practices into specific institutional settings, which is necessary even in the absence of climate change to improve the effectiveness of integrated coastal management.
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| Greenhouse Gasses, Transportation and Urban Development: A placed-based approach for understanding and mitigating greenhouse gas emissions from transportation in urban areas. |
| Author: Neff, Robert
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| Institutional Affiliation: Penn State University |
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| Panel Title: The Interactions between Global Environmental Change and Urban Processes (Session 2) |
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| Paper Link: docs/neff.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| Traditional studies evaluating greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategies for transportation have focused at the national and international scales, suggesting solutions such as gasoline or carbon taxes or improving mandatory efficiency standards. Despite evidence suggesting these efforts could be effective in improving per-mile efficiency, they have received little consideration by the policy makers with sufficient power to enact them in the United States. Evidence also suggests that improvements in per-mile efficiency correspond to increases in vehicle miles traveled (VMT), thus mitigating the potential emissions reductions of these options. These issues have led some researchers to theorize that solutions to global climate change might be addressed more effectively at the local scale. However, few empirical local studies have been reported, particularly in the US, which leads the world in per capita GHG emissions.
This paper presents a method for evaluating the role local agency can play in mitigating GHG emissions from transportation in urban areas, using the Philadelphia Metropolitan Area as a test case. A traffic assignment model was applied to commuter origin-destination data, and the results were used to generate a series of emissions maps. The results suggest that improving public transportation is a weak option for GHG emissions mitigation because of the diffuse nature of development in Philadelphia. Further analysis shows that the development of suburban edge cities contributes significantly to GHG emissions, suggesting that zoning regulations and other controls on development could be instrumental in mitigating emissions. These options are explored in the context of the historical development patterns of the study area. Similar approaches could be applied in a wide variety of urban areas internationally, and the results suggest that examination of local emissions patterns may reveal previously overlooked options for emissions mitigation.
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| Building eco-social resilience of a rural watershed on the Canadian prairies ? a climate change adaptation strategy |
| Author: Neudoerffer, Cynthia
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| Co-Author(s): David Waltner-Toews |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Rural Studies, Faculty of Environmental Design and Rural Development, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario |
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| Panel Title: Adaptive Capacity: Towards a Useful Theory |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Building eco-social resilience to climate variability and extreme events is proposed as an approach to reducing vulnerability and increasing adaptive capacity of communities to climate change. Three general features of a measurable notion of eco-social system resilience are: a) the magnitude of shocks that the system can absorb and remain within a given state; b) the degree to which the system is capable of self-organization; and c) the degree to which the system can learn, experiment and innovate. A resilience approach to vulnerability and adaptation is based on Holling?s adaptive cycle and, more generally, on complex adaptive hierarchical system theory. Evidence to support an eco-social resilience approach will be presented based on a case study of community-based watershed management in the Tobacco Creek Model Watershed in south-central Manitoba, Canada. The case study uses the Adaptive Methodology for Ecosystem Sustainability and Health (AMESH) as a participatory research methodology. The historical watershed management activities of the Deerwood Soil and Water Management Association, a local farmer?s initiative, will be highlighted, including the scientific results of fifteen years of work, which have significantly decreased runoff and positively impacted water quality in the upper reaches of a 75 sq km sub-watershed during extreme rain events. The self-organization, innovation and learning of the Deerwood group will also be discussed. Finally, the ongoing attempts of Deerwood to expand the activities to the larger 1125 sq km Tobacco Creek watershed, using a participatory process to engage local stakeholders, will be examined. The applicability of this approach to the international context will be supported through a brief comparison to watershed management work undertaken by Tarun Barat Sangh (TBS) in Alwar District, Rajasthan, India. TBS has, independently, undertaken similar watershed management activities since 1983, has encountered many of the same barriers as Deerwood, yet has also been successful at building the resilience of rural communities to extreme events. |
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| Spatial Pressure and degradation of the Environment in Yaounde, Cameroon. |
| Author: Nguendo Yongsi, Hénock Blaise
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| Institutional Affiliation: C/o Dr Joseph Kamgno
Laboratoire d'épidémiologie
Et de Santé Publique
Centre Pasteur du Cameroun
B.P. 1274 Yaoundé - Cameroun |
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| Panel Title: Population, Poverty and the Environment: Case Studies from Around the World |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Yaoundé, the capital city of Cameroon, is for these last decades, rapidly growing in terms of population. With a yearly middle demographic rate growth of 6,5% , its population went from 313.706 inhabitants in 1976, to 812.036 in 1982, to finally reach 1,5 millions inhabitants today.
This constant growing is followed by deep changes within the urban landscape. Statistically, the town which in 1976 was measuring 3830 hectares, has extended to 12.300 hectares in 1992 , and nowadays covers about 18.000 hectares.
Unfortunately, this city spatial stretching has not been planned by the public authorities. In fact, the first citizens that got settled and even the new ones who settle now, did it in a disorganized way, that is ,without any official support nor technical control. As a result, this has generated a free and anarchic town growth model , bringing about an intensive pressure on the urban physical space.
This socio-spatial pressure in Yaoundé appears in two simultaneous manners: deep changes in the urban texture, like the densification of both central district and peri central quarters ; and a rapid extension of the town towards peripheral areas, due to the absorption of rural plots. In other words, due to its hilly site, this spatial pressure in Yaounde maries the twists of a wild urbanization and of a 'down - top urbanism': anthropization of swampy valleys in the city intra mural, and slopes settlement outside the walls .
Based on relevant data from direct investigations, our work intends to show the differential impact of spatial pressure on intra urban and on peri urban environments . Clearly, we intend to show that, types of degradation within african urban environmental context differ according to the intra mural or to the extra mural town. In fact, whereas the intra urban environmental side, the spatial pressure is manifesting itself by high densification of settlements, poverty, bad living conditions, health problems, in the peri urban environmental side on the contrary, we rather observe strong landscape's transformations characterized by land cover disparition, fauna destruction and soils degradation. |
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| Climate change and food security in Vietnam |
| Author: Nguyen, Van Viet
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| Co-Author(s): Ngo Tien Giang |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Agrometeorological Research Center of Vietnam |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Climate change and climate variability, typhoons, floods, droughts and other climate elements related natural disasters have a direct influence on the quantity and quality of agricultural productions access to new technology in agricultural and food production, such as modern irrigation schemes, soil unservation and management techniques and erosion control, should in any case be accompanied by knowledge of infornation about weather and climate and other related environmental factors to make full of technological advances. Therefore environmental monitoring of climate and agroclimate on the region of Monsoon Tropical Climate with many disasters of Southeast Asia in general and particular inVietnam are important problem for providing National, Regional food security.Hence this report have been studed the following problem :
Real situation of food security in Vietnam
The impacts of climate change and disaster such as typhoon, flood, weather cold, frost and drought duration Elnino Lanina events on Agriculture and Food security in Vietnam
The law of distribution of typhoon, flood, drought and weather cold in Vietnam
Some measures to cope with climate change and climste disasters for serving agriculture and food security in Vietnam as following:
Agrometeorological adaptation strategies to climate variability and climate change
Rational exploiting of climate and agroclimatic information
The changing cropping partten and crop varieties for avoid of damage by climate disaster
Some proposal the agrometeorological action for serving agriculture and food security in Vietnam
The report is useful for policy analysis decision-makers and practic for sustainable development on agriculture and food security in Vietnam and some other developing countries |
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| Prospects for Sustainable Development in Vietnam in the New Century |
| Author: Nguyen Huu, Ninh
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| Co-Author(s): Luong Quang Huy, Nei Adger, Mick Kelly |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Center for Environment Research, Education and Development |
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| Panel Title: Integrated Assessment for Sustainable Development |
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| Paper Link: docs/Ninh.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| Environmental change, set against a backdrop of pronounced societal trends over coming decades, will undoubtedly test the resilience of Vietnamese society. This paper considers particular challenges that Vietnam faces during the early twenty-first century. Drawing on the discussion of the scientific community concerning environmental change, vulnerability, resilience and adaptation in Vietnam under various pressures, the paper considers how emerging trends might affect levels of vulnerability and resilience, taking as examples three particular threats and opportunities resulting from national and international processes, and draw out implications for policy.
We consider, first, the impact of globalisation on Vietnam and its environment. We then examine the spatial dimension of the development process within Vietnam, focusing on poverty, patterns of economic growth and population distribution. Finally, we discuss the land allocation process and the consequent trends in access to resources which, as has been widely argued in literature about environmental change in Vietnam, shape patterns of vulnerability and resilience. In the concluding section, we identify three key issues that must be given consideration if suitable and equitable development is to be secured.
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| Human Security:Building Institutional Frameworks for Natural Disasters Risk Reduction |
| Author: Nikitina, Elena
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| Co-Author(s): Vladimir Kotov, Fabien Nathan |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Institute of World Economy and International Relations
Russian Academy of Sciences |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Human vulnerability to natural disasters and identifying possible options in natural disaster risk reduction is turning to be among burning issues of human security and global environmental change research agenda. Indeed, during recent years the world has witnessed a succession of disasters - floods, storms, wildfires, earthquakes, landslides that have taken away many thousands of lives, affected a lot of people and their livelihoods all over the world causing material and moral damage. Not only developing countries are increasingly vulnerable to natural disasters, but developed world also experiences significant losses and human and environmental security is threatened. People will always face natural disasters and their effect on society depends on community's capacity to cope with them; many disasters are amplified by human activities and by global environmental change. An important question is how to reduce risks of natural disasters, and what strategies and institutions should be established in order to mitigate, prevent the risks and be ready to counteract and adapt to them. The paper explores major linkages between human security, environmental change and emerging trends in natural disasters' impacts and vulnerability patterns. Then it turns to analysis of major types of existing institutional frameworks for natural disaster risk reduction both at international and national levels (in developed and developing countries), and explores possible avenues for institutional capacity building in the future. It identifies possible options and constraints in institutional designs for natural disaster mitigation and adaptation. It finalizes with overview of major research findings and lessons learned from domestic institutional capacity building in natural disasters management in Russia where practical results and institutional performance in this sector during the last decade appeared to be quite advanced, and in a much better shape than in environmental protection domain. |
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| The practice of strategic environmental assessment in Canada: Implications for energy policy development |
| Author: Noble, Bram
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| Institutional Affiliation: University of Saskatchewan |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Strategic environmental assessment (SEA) broadly refers to the proactive assessment of proposed or existing policies, plans and programs (PPPs) and their alternatives. There is a growing recognition of the need for the assessment of the implications of PPP alternatives at an early stage in the decision-making process where there can be greater flexibility in terms of future actions. This is particularly true at the policy level, as illustrated by the Government of Canada Action Plan 2000 on Climate Change, the recent Kyoto environmental summit, Natural Resources Canada's release of The State of Energy Efficiency in Canada 1999, and more specifically, the recent interest in alternative futures for Canada's electricity sector. The problem is that SEA has not yet been widely accepted and there is still very little consensus on appropriate methodologies that specifically address SEA requirements. This paper discusses the nature and practice of SEA in Canada and the implications for energy policy decision making. A multi-criteria methodological framework is presented, and the implications of SEA for Canadian energy policy decision-making discussed based on the case results of an SEA of Canadian electricity supply alternatives. Electricity supply and policy alternatives are presented and assessed by an expert panel on the basis of several environmental and socioeconomic criteria. A strategic policy direction is identified and regional and sectoral preferences explored. |
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| Environmental Governance in Asia: Problems and Prospects -Opinion Survey of Major Environmental Actors |
| Author: Nomura, Ko
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| Institutional Affiliation: Institute for Global Environmental Strategies |
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| Panel Title: Transition in Environmental Governance in Asia: Policy Implications at Local and Global Levels |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| The power of the central government has been undermined in the last decade in Asia due to a variety of socio-political and economic reasons. Considering the irreversibility of this trend and the significant role it played for a long time in most of policy areas, Asian countries are facing a need to find a new style of governance in each sector- environmental area is not exceptional.
An alternative to the strong leadership, which the central government used to take, can be an enhanced participation of multiple stakeholders in environmental governance. It can be rephrased as the promotion of 'partnership', which the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD or Johannesburg Summit) emphasised, and wanted itself to stimulate.
What is important here in enhancing the partnership is the opinions of the parties concerned- namely, how they consider the situation. What do they regard as the problems/obstacles facing them?; how do they consider to enhance environmental governance in Asia? ; in addition, how has WSSD contributed to change the pattern of environmental action for the better in Asia? Studying the opinions of the parties concerned can suggest the ways to cope with the transitional situation, may it be enhancing partnership or not, and help understand a new style of environmental governance in Asia.
This paper shows the result of an opinion survey of hundreds of concerned parties on environmental issues in Asia, ranging from government officials to NGOs as well as businesses. Questions are aimed to identify their opinions on the impact of WSSD in Asia, and problems and prospects for Asian environmental governance. The result of this survey will help us not only understand the state of Asian environmental governance but also to have a picture of its future. The panel will discuss the results of the survey in relation to the development of sub-national environmental mechanisms. |
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| Urbanization, environmental change and food security in Sub-Saharan Africa |
| Author: Nsiah-Gyabaah, Kwasi
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| Institutional Affiliation: Sunyani Polytechnic |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: docs/Nsiah-Gyabaah.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| Urbanization and population are growing at extraordinary rates in the developing countries, compressing the urbanization process that has taken centuries in developed countries into decades. Demographers have estimated that more than half of the world's population, approximately 3.3 billion people, now live in urban areas. By the end of the 21st century, about 80 or 90 percent of the world's people will live in urban areas. More than 90 percent of future population growth will be concentrated in cities, mainly in developing countries, which have significantly less resources and capacity to cope with the negative effects of urbanization and rapid population growth.
Although urban areas are the driving forces for economic growth and development, Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is vulnerable to many of the insecurities associated with urbanization such as food insecurity, unemployment, crime, water shortage, loss of bio-diversity etc. Recently, serious concern has been raised over the effects of urbanization on environmental change and its implications for food security, especially in fragile ecosystems. However, while a great deal of literature has emerged on the causes of urbanization and population growth, less attention has been devoted to the implications of such growth on environmental change and food security especially in Africa, the least but most rapidly urbanizing part of the world, where accelerated environmental degradation and food insecurity present the greatest challenge to poverty alleviation and sustainable development.
The paper therefore examines the urbanization process in SSA and how human activities are exerting pressure on natural resources and endangering environmental and human security It also focuses on vulnerability of people to environmental change and food insecurity and specific local coping strategies, as well as the wide range of policy instruments that have been used by urban planners and city authorities to influence the urbanization process in order to reduce environmental degradation and ensure food security and sustainable development of urban areas.
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| Vulnerability to Multiple Stressors in Southern Africa: The SAVI project |
| Author: O'Brien, Karen
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| Co-Author(s): Coleen Vogel |
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| Institutional Affiliation: CICERO |
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| Panel Title: Measuring Vulnerability and Adaptability: Conceptual and Methodological Challenges (GECHS) |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| This paper presents a comprehensive framework for assessing vulnerability to global environmental change in southern Africa. The framework, which is an outcome of the GECHS/IHDP Southern African Vulnerability Initiative (SAVI), integrates different facets of vulnerability. Such facets include: economic globalization, high rates of HIV/AIDS and other health problems, economic malaise, political unrest, rapid urbanization, and other stressors that may have strong influences on the capacity of individual countries as well as the region as a whole to cope with GEC. The paper will focus on the output of the first SAVI workshop, which brought together diverse research communities, including both scientists and practitioners, to discuss and develop an approach to vulnerability in southern Africa. The move towards a more holistic understanding of vulnerability can help to identify not only who is vulnerable to global environmental change, but also what can be done about it. |
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| Institutional Interaction: The European Dimension |
| Author: Oberthür, Sebastian
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| Institutional Affiliation: University of Bamberg and Ecologic |
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| Panel Title: Institutional Dimensions of Global Environmental Change: Fit Interplay and Scale |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| This paper presents results of the multi-annual international research project 'Institutional Interaction ' How to Prevent Conflicts and Enhance Synergies between International and EU Environmental Institutions' supported by the European Community. It focuses on interactions in which EU environmental institutions are involved.
The paper first introduces the concept of interaction between institutions. It explicates that 'cases' of interaction in which a single source institution affects a single target institution in one specific way constitute the most suitable starting point in the analysis of inter-institutional influence. Complex interaction situations in which more than two institutions are involved or more than one causal pathway is at play therefore need to be analytically disaggregated into an appropriate number of cases of interaction. Furthermore, the paper establishes EU legislative instruments (Directives, Regulations, Decisions) as functional equivalents of specific international institutions, such as international regimes and international organisations, at the European level. As a result, cases of vertical interaction between an EU legislative instrument and a specific international institution become comparable to cases of horizontal interaction between two EU legislative instruments (or, for that matter, between two international institutions).
The paper addresses both vertical and horizontal interactions in which EU environmental legislative instruments are involved. Substantiated by the results of the empirical case studies conducted in the framework of the aforementioned research project, it is demonstrated that cases of interaction in both dimensions follow a limited set of distinct causal mechanisms that provide varying conditions for policy-making and international and European governance. First of all, most causal mechanisms of institutional interaction can be triggered intentionally by the source institution. Hence, members of an institution may employ an existing potential for interaction to influence other institutions and thereby enhance international governance. Furthermore, members of the source and the target institution have succeeded in mitigating conflict and enhancing synergy by means of targeted collective policy responses to cases of institutional interaction. Many cases of interaction allow for such policy action within the source, the target or both institutions involved.
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| Risk Perception Study on Garbage Issue and Coastal Pollution in Holbox Island, Yucatan, Mexico |
| Author: Ohe, Mizue
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| Co-Author(s): Kim Chi Tran, Eloy Gil Trava |
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| Institutional Affiliation: School of Policy Studies
Kwansei Gakuin University |
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| Panel Title: Fragile Ecosystems |
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| Paper Link: docs/ohe.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| Holbox Island locates in the northeast of Yucatan Peninsula. Urbanization, population growth and tourism have been developed rapidly; some environmental problems such as water pollution, coastal erosion, and garbage issue have been observed in this island. Since 1999 a monitoring study of water and sediment in the lagoon has been carried on. However, Holbox does not really have a master plan for environmental conservation and economic development by local municipality. There are also several opinions about these issues among local people. Therefore, public involvement and risk communication among local stakeholders are desired to achieve the appropriate local environmental management that balances with local economic development.
In this study, risk perception questionnaires have been carried on with factors such as values, beliefs, concerns, risk perceptions, behaviors, future visions, etc. The definitions of coastal pollution are different among local people. Mainly garbage issue and boat cleaning are perceived as coastal pollution by a majority of people. Some people mention a relationship between garbage dumping and water pollution since garbage-dumping site is located next to a lagoon connecting the ocean. When people visualize and realize an issue, they perceived it as a risk or a problem. In the first step of capacity buildings in this society, seawater and sediment sampling activities are carried out by local volunteers. For the next step, with the results of the risk perception study and scientific information of seawater quality monitoring, risk communication on garbage issue and coastal pollution among local stakeholders in Holbox will be attempted through this study. |
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| The Human Dimensions of Droughts and Floods in West Africa: 1968-2000 |
| Author: Ojo, Simon
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| Institutional Affiliation: Department of Geography, University of Lagos. |
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| Panel Title: Rural Livelihoods and Climate Variability: Insights for Adaptation to Longer Term Change |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| This paper discusses the human dimensions of the impacts of the climatic extremes (droughts and floods) in West Africa between 1968-200. It first examines the characteristics of these hazards before examining the impacts of the hazards including for example (a) displacement of population, resettlement and rural depopulation (b) famine, food security and hunger impacts (c) social dimensions including consequences social services (education and health), unemployment, crimes and social values (d) cultural impacts including impacts on parks, wildlife, historical monuments, traditional heritages and religious beliefs and (e) aesthetic amenities and values. Illustrates these impacts by using the results of research and documented evidences during 1968-2000, when greater awareness and concern for the impacts of environmental change were created in the region, following the very famous drought episodes of the late 1960s and the early 1970s and the downward trend in precipitation and water resources in the region..
The results of the study show that of all the major disasters in West Africa, droughts and floods have the greatest damage, with these damages respectively being about 88% and 4% of the total damages due to various environmental disasters in the region. In terms of persons affected, droughts had the major share of about 76% while floods had about 9%. In terms of number of deaths, droughts directly caused 5% and floods, 2%. Indirectly, both droughts and floods caused epidemics, which shared about 79% of the deaths associated with all disasters in the region. The study also showed that droughts and floods caused considerable damages to agriculture and food production and adversely affected water resources, population dynamics, other socio-economic sectors and other human dimensions of the impacts of droughts and floods. The paper then examines the socio-economic responses of both the governments and people for coping with the crisis of droughts and floods, and the extent to which research findings on crisis management and environmental security had been used by decision makers to reduce or prevent some of the adverse consequences. The paper finally noted the need for better involvement of government and stakeholders and greater co-operation between them and the scientists.
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| The Judiciary as a Venue for Environmental Education and Advocacy: The Philippine Experience |
| Author: Oliva, Roberto
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| Institutional Affiliation: Philippine Environmental Governance Project |
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| Panel Title: Regulations and Environmental Change |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Environmental policy programs are either through legislative and policy reforms and executive initiatives.
In the Philippines, policy reforms include the requirement for environment impact reviews prior to implementation of development projects; the passage of the National Integrated Protected Areas System Act; Mining Code; Clean Air Act; Local Government Code; and Ecological Solid Waste Management Act.
Among the programs being implemented include the Community Based Forest Management Program as the principal strategy towards sustainable forest management; the Department of Environment and Natural Resources ' Local Government Units partnership on devolved and other forest management functions; and the EcoGovernance Program to bring about transparency, accountability and participatory decision making.
The judiciary on the other hand has been regarded only as a passive player in environmental education and advocacy. In the Philippines, the courts are seen as venues to enforce what are written in the statutes, put to jail the spoilers of the environment, or put a halt the implementation of projects which are not environment friendly.
The judiciary can play a major role in promoting environmental governance. The impact of their decisions can be used in promoting environmental activism.
In the case of 'Minors of the Philippines vs. DENR, et. al.,' (1993) it was held by the Philippine Supreme Court that minors, and even those yet unborn have the legal standing to file a case in court for the enforcement of the constitutional mandate of the right of the people to balanced and healthful ecology in accord and harmony with nature. This doctrinal case has brought about the concept of intergenerational responsibility.
Today, various environmental laws such as the Clean Air Act and the Ecological Solid Waste Management Act give citizens the right to enforce their rights based on the concept of intergenerational responsibility.
This paper will review major decisions of the Philippine Supreme Court over the past twenty years and discuss their implications and importance. |
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| Communities of fish and Communities of fishers: understanding human-ecosystem interactions in the coastal ocean |
| Author: Ommer, Rosemary
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| Co-Author(s): Barbara Neis, R. Ian Perry |
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| Institutional Affiliation: GLOBEC SSC
Coasts Under Stress Research Project |
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| Panel Title: Global Environmental Change and Coastal Areas: A Microcosm of Coupled Human-Environment Systems |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| The IGBP core project GLOBEC (Global Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics) has the overall goal of understanding global ocean ecosystems and their responses to physical forcing in order to forecast their responses to global changes. Marine ecosystems globally have experienced major changes over the past few decades, most notably declines of important commercial species and unexpected changes in species composition. The reasons for these changes have been variously ascribed to changes in climate or to intense human exploitation. Since GLOBEC also strives to understand the interacting roles of natural and human-induced changes on marine ecosystems, and to put these recent changes into their broader time and space context, a critical concept for us has become the reciprocal nature of impacts and forcings between human communities and marine ecosystem changes. For example, changes in abundance and species composition of the traditional marine catches in Newfoundland, Canada, have caused human coastal communities to intensify and expand their interaction with marine systems along 3 different axes: in time (fishing at different times); in space (fishing at different places and depths); and ecological (fishing for what were previously considered to be trash species). These human responses have in turn had further, different and at times unexpected, impacts to marine ecosystems.
Understanding the reciprocal interactions between humans and marine ecosystems involves several fundamental issues and difficulties, including different analytical scales, incompatible methodologies, the free flow of knowledge, and possibly incompatible values. This presentation will identify some of the critical marine ecosystem changes, discuss their human-environment interactions, and suggest an approach to studying such systems and interactions which involves both natural and social scientists.
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| 'Strategic Inventorying Of Human Population Impact In Over Pressurized Coastal Megacities' |
| Author: Oni, Samuel
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| Institutional Affiliation: University of Lagos, Lagos, Nigeria |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Alarming insurgence of human population, excessive and unguided urbanization in developing countries level brought dangerous impact on most of the coastal megacities. This phenomenon has led to uncontrolled human activities, and land use, over-exploration of resources, which has consequently disrupted the normal coastal environment.
Several remedial management efforts have been made in the pat through ad hoc management plans and individual assessment. Whereas, strategic stack taking requires an understanding of the dynamic factors and processes at work, especially climatic and economic factors for possible management, prediction and offset, as well as in the development of realistic and credible policies for mitigating change.
This paper applies strategic inventorying option, which provides tool, through which policies, plans, programmes are evaluated for potential impacts. It provides further, major ingredient for integration of human dimension, which involves standard information, data and database which is lacking in a typical megacity of a developing country such as Lagos.
Baseline data is essential for effective management of human population dynamics and the possibilities of pressure reduction and extent of primate dominance of the coastal megacities for environmental survival and sustainability.
This paper suggests the application of Geographic Information System (GIS), integrated coastal resource use and continuous impact assessment. On this basis, integrated evaluation will be attempted, which draws together the interaction among sectors, at vertical-horizontal and spatio-temporal dimensions.
Given the nature of the available data, flexibility will be built into the system to permit for constant modification. GIS will be applied for supporting the baseline surveys, coastal environment resource utilization, consequent pollution hazards, impact assessment and monitoring. |
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| Comparative Methodologies for Tracking Land Use/Land Cover Change in Israel, 1978-1999 |
| Author: Orenstein, Daniel
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| Co-Author(s): Jeffrey Albert, John Mustard, Steve Hamburg |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Center for Environmental Studies
Brown University |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: docs/orenstein.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| This project compares two approaches for assessing the rates of land use/land cover (LULC) change in Israel over a 150 km2 area on the southern Mediterranean coast in Israel over the past two decades. The first method uses a series of scanned and georeferenced 1:50,000 survey maps as a basis for a Geographic Information System (GIS) analysis. Our findings using this method indicate that urban development (structures and roads) increased by 3% between 1978 and 1985, and by a further 5% between 1986 and 1995. Nearly all land developed during this period was coastal dune ecosystems; almost no agricultural land was developed. Our application of the second method, using the TM and ETM+ sensors aboard Landsat to generate an LULC classification time-series, is ongoing. We then compare the results of each approach to various economic, demographic and policy changes, locally and nationally, during the period of record to identify possible drivers of LULC change in the region. We also seek to delineate the relative advantages and disadvantages of each approach for the study of LULC, considering, among other factors, data availability (temporal and spatial), data quality, analysis accuracy and precision, and budget and time constraints. |
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| Impacts of climate change and variability on some diseases in the tropical region: an example of the strategies for adaptation to climate variability and change. Case study: Cuba |
| Author: Ortiz Bulto, Paulo Lazaro
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| Co-Author(s): Antonio Perez, Alina Rivera, Vladimir Guevara |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Center of Climate |
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| Panel Title: Environmental Change and Human Health |
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| Paper Link: docs/Ortiz.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| The objective of this conference is to describe the possible climate change impacts on human health in Cuba, as part of the assessment developed under the auspices of the First National Communication. Ortiz's methodology is applied for seven very significant diseases: acute respiratory infections (ARIs), acute diarrhoeal disease (ADDs), viral hepatitis (VH), varicella (V), meningococcal disease (MD) and malaria borne Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax. It is shown that all diseases are sensitive to variations and climate change. A progressive increase or decreases in the cases number, more frequent epidemic outbreaks, the displacement of disease seasonal patterns are the principal responses observed. The researches demonstrate that the climate impact on the human health are multiple and complex for any region and disease, including the costs of the impacts and its reduction by the application of adaptation measures. Have been identified that the incidence of climate variability on health is stronger than climate change. Finally, a bioclimatological warning system, among other measures, is proposed for the adaptation. This system uses the signs of anomalies of the following variables: Maximum, and minimum temperatures, atmospheric pressure, relative humidity, water vapour pressures, rainfall, ENOS influence, and other climatic variables are integrating in one index.
Bioclimatological Monitoring System is used in the climate surveillance and disease forecast. This measure, as well as the implementation of the control programs for diseases sensitive to climate, is successfully applied. These measures contribute to enhancing the preparedness and improve the human health in broader sense, with or without climate change.
Key Words: Climate change and variability. Impact on Human health. Adaptations |
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| Vulnerability and Adaptation to Sea Level Rise: First Lessons Learned in the Caspian Region |
| Author: Ostrovskaya, Elena
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| Institutional Affiliation: Caspian Marine Research Institute, Astrakhan |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| The Caspian region can be regarded as one of the first examples and prototypes of human vulnerability to sea-level rise. During the period 1978-1995 the level of the Caspian Sea sharply increased by 2.5 meters, and currently it is followed by the phase of its decline. Such fluctuations result is significant threat to human security and livelihoods and in economic damage to the coastal regions which become extremely vulnerable to such changes. Indeed, as a result of sharp sea-level already unfavorable ecological situation in the coastal regions of the Caspian Sea deteriorated further; the destructive effects of sea storms (waves of 3 meters height) spreading into the continental parts up to 20 kilometers in the coastal areas augmented; the coastline was destructing at an annual speed of 10 meters, while the land was flooded at a speed of 1-2 kilometers per year. As a result human security was under threat as populated territories of about one million hectares were negatively affected, including cities villages, industrial sites and agricultural areas: about 320 thousand of agricultural lands were flooded, local infrastructure and hydrotechnical facilities were affected and some dwellings had to be resettled. The paper examines the scales and major impacts of sea-level rise on environment, on population, on health and economic and social welfare. It identifies main directions and trends in human vulnerability to sea-level rise not in a future hypothetical perspective, but basing on concrete examples, experiences and lessons already learned from the Caspian Sea area. It analyses major human responses in this field, adaptation measures undertaken, problems counterfaced in that respect, and failures to solve the problem. The study is based on the primary data and observations from the field studies conducted by the author in the northern part of the Caspian basin, i.e. in the Astrakhan region in Russia.
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| Between a Rock and a Hard Place: Environmental Policy in the Era of Globalization and Hegemony |
| Author: Ott, Hermann
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| Institutional Affiliation: Climate Policy Division, Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy |
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| Panel Title: Multilevel Environmental Governance |
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| Paper Link: docs/Ott.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| What is the effect of a hegemonic world order on environmental policy and sustainable development? Environmental governance has for some time - and sometimes successfully - struggled with the forces of industrial society and globalization and its impact on ecosystems. Since the middle of the 80s, environmental ministries with the support of civil society groups have built a rather complex web of environmental regimes in order to cope with a number of global challenges. "Universal participation", "stakeholder dialogues" and "multilateralism" were the underlying principles for most activities in this policy area: "global problems demand global answers" - from governments as well as civil society.
However, since the fall of the Soviet empire and the end of the bipolar order the world has become a much more unipolar place - a uni-/multipolar world order in the words of Samuel Huntington. This development appears to be challenging the co-operative solution to many of the world's most pressing problems - the rejection (and actually attempted destruction) of the Kyoto Protocol and the Internationale Criminal Court are examples here. While some theorists will welcome the dawn of a new hegemonic world order as the only guarantee for stability and regime building, others will see it as a threat to a co-operative culture built on common but differentiated responsibilities.
This contribution will seek to, first, identify the framework for environmental policy and sustainability in the era of globalization and hegemony and, second, make an attempt to identify possible routes for effective environmental policy making "between a rock and a hard place". |
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| Jouni Paavola, Adapting to Climate Change in Tanzania: Institutional Arrangements and Justice in Multi-Level Environmental Governance |
| Author: Paavola, Jouni
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| Institutional Affiliation: Centre for Social and Economic Research on the Global Environment (CSERGE)
University of East Anglia |
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| Panel Title: Multilevel Environmental Governance |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| This paper examines the multi-level institutional arrangements that govern adaptation to climate change in Tanzania, with an emphasis on understanding the likely consequences and justice implications of these institutional solutions and gaps therein. The paper will first review the existing international environmental law on adaptation, indicating how the UN Framework Convention for Climate Change, the Kyoto Protocol, the subsequent decisions of the conferences of the parties, and other international rules guide planning for adaptation and constrain and enable the implementation of adaptive responses at the national level. The paper also discusses gaps in the international environmental law on adaptation, such as the lack of any provisions for sharing the burden of climate-related extreme weather events after they have occurred. Next the paper discusses the climate change impacts that Tanzania is predicted to face during this century, which include warming, increased rainfall and frequent floods but longer dry seasons in most areas, and reduced runoff and availability of water because of increased evaporation. By contrasting these climate change impacts with vulnerability and adaptive capacity in the country, the paper argues that food security, food and agricultural production, water resources management (including flood protection), forest management, and public health should receive the closest attention when planning and taking steps for adaptation. The paper then reviews the current situation with the identified key areas of adaptation in Tanzania and analyses the plans and suggestions for reforms that seek to build in concerns for adaptation. The analysis aims to describe institutional arrangements within which adaptation will take place in the country, and to identify their justice implications. Special attention will be paid on water resources management and forest management as areas where decentralised local responses can facilitate adaptation. The paper will also identify gaps in national plans and strategies and discuss their implications for both adaptation and justice. The conclusions of the paper will reflect on the justice implications of linkages between the levels of governance and discuss their ramifications for international climate negotiations and governance of adaptation. |
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| Sustainable Forest Management in India - Role of Community in Joint Forest Management |
| Author: Padmanabha, Sudha
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| Co-Author(s): Jagannatha Rao, B.C. Nagaraj, P.R. Bhat, N.H. Ravindranath |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Ecological and Economics Research Network, Centre for Ecological Sciences
Indian Institute of Science, Malleswaram, Bangalore |
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| Panel Title: Economic and Social Aspects of Forest Management Systems |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| The growing depletion of forest resources and the increasing deforestation in India, led to the realization that participation of the forest fringe communities is essential for any forest regeneration programme to succeed. It was realized that village communities would have little incentive to participate unless they benefit directly and have sufficient legal status to protect the forest. Therefore a new strategy, called Joint Forest Management (JFM), was adopted in 1990 to protect and regenerate degraded forests. Over the past 13 years, JFM programme has spread in the country and over 18 percent of the country's forestland has been brought under JFM. In absolute terms, the area under JFM is now more than 14 million hectares and over 62,890 JFM groups are involved.
Though a large number of JFM groups have been formed, the knowledge of extent of functioning of the JFM groups to protect the forest and the impact of the programme is limited. There is also a need to assess JFM with regard to ecological, social and economic benefits derived. Thus the Ecological Economics Research Network (EERN) took up a National level assessment study in 6 states of India. The main objective of the study was to assess functioning and performance of JFM groups and its impacts on village community, vegetation status, financial benefits and flow of forest products and give recommendations to the Forest Department and Policy makers to enhance sustainable management of forests under JFM.
The presentation will highlight the status of JFM in India with special focus on:
- Institutional structure of JFM groups and its implication
- Ecological status of protected area and the flow of forest benefits.
- Impacts of JFM on community and environment
- Recommendations at field level and policy level to sustain JFM
- Recommendations for monitoring and evaluating JFM at the National level.
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| Accuracy of Land Use/Land Cover Change Models When Used to Determine Carbon Credits Awarded |
| Author: Paladino, Louis
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| Institutional Affiliation: Clark University |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Determining the accuracy of a land-use/land-cover change model is critical to our ability to accurately quantify carbon credits awarded. Considering the value of a carbon credit, sound statistical methods are absolutely necessary in order to state within a level of confidence how well land-use/land-cover change models perform.
The first part of this paper analyzes the accuracy of land-use/land-cover change model predictions when used to quantify the amount of carbon credits awarded to organizations for conserving or creating carbon sequestering forests. The study site is the Guaraquecaba Climate Action Project near Curitiba, Brazil where American Electric Power (AEP) and General Motors (GM) invested $15.4 million to reforest and conserve forest. These two corporations receive carbon credits for their investment in the Atlantic Forest, credits which may be traded on greenhouse gas emission trading markets. Many countries are establishing this market-based alternative to the Kyoto Protocol as a means for constraining carbon output. If the land-use/land-cover change model simulates a greater amount of future land-use disturbance in the Guaraquecaba area, more carbon credits will be awarded to AEP and GM. It is important to ensure that AEP and GM receive the correct amount of carbon credits, credits that are dependent on the land-use/land-cover change model prediction.
The second part of this paper compares two land-use/land-cover change models found within the Idrisi software, Geomod and Ca_Markov. The two models differ fundamentally in how they predict land-use change, which in turn could affect the quantity of carbon credits awarded to AEP and GM. Most importantly, the paper utilizes statistical methods developed by Clark University to assess the accuracy of Geomod and Ca_Markov in predicting land-use disturbance in the Guaraquecaba area.
This paper applies new statistical methods to estimate the level of confidence in a land-use/land-cover models extrapolation to an unknown future, and assesses the reliability of those statistical methods. Constituents with a stake in carbon monitoring need both statistical results that state confidence, and confidence in the statistical methods themselves. This high level of accuracy assessment will be important to both greenhouse gas trading markets and land-use/land-cover modelers.
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| Sustaining productivity through Resource Conservation Technologies in the rice wheat farming system of Indo-Gangetic Plains of India |
| Author: Pandey, Vijay Laxmi
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| Co-Author(s): Ganesh Prasad |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research,
Gen. Vaidya Marg, Goregoan (east),
Mumbai - India |
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| Panel Title: Biodiversity and Environmental Mitigation |
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| Paper Link: docs/pandey.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| Rice and wheat are grown in rotation in about 10 million hectares in Indo Gangetic Plains of India and have contributed in achieving the food security in past. There is need to sustain this due to growing population. Recent studies have however, expressed their apprehension, due to decline in total area under agriculture and degradation of natural resources. The major challenge is to produce more by sustaining the quality of natural resources at relatively reduced cost. In order to address these concerns Rice Wheat Consortium of four countries had infused new Resource Conservation Technologies (RCTs) that are able to tap new resources of productivity growth and are more sustainable. In this paper we intend to present the success story of RCTs based on the published documents.
It is reported that with the use of zero tillage, reduction in production costs (US $65/ha) is seen in terms of, tractor usage leading to fuel saving of 70% (reduction of 100 lts/ha i.e. a quarter ton less emission of CO2/ha), fertilizer use, water use (10% saving) and labor costs. Sowing time is optimally set leading to increase in yield by 10-15%. Improvement in soil fertility, porosity and infiltration is achieved.
Raised beds give more yields and are helpful in the long run. Two or three rows of crop are planted on the raised bed. This improves water use efficiency (saving of 1 million lts/ha) and fertilizer use efficiency with soil salinity and fertility problems being taken care of. Weed density problem also reduces and tillers per plant improve substantially.
Agriculture residue burning causes green house gas emission (burning 10 tons/ha produces 13 tons of CO2). Non-burning of residue from just 2 million hectare would reduce the huge flux of yearly CO2 emissions by 17 million tons.
Therefore, there is need to investigate in detail how to propagate these technologies and how do the farmers perceive the benefits of these technologies in their field. A field study will be carried out in May 2003, in the two districts of India, to capture farmers' perception about environmental and economic impacts of adoption.
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| Measuring Sustainable Development |
| Author: Parris, Thomas
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| Co-Author(s): Robert W. Kates |
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| Institutional Affiliation: ISciences, LLC |
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| Panel Title: How to Improve the Empirical Base for Integrated Global Change Research? |
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| Paper Link: http://www.isciences.com/NewSite/AR198-EG28-13[001-028].pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| Sustainable development has broad appeal and little specificity, but some combination of development and environment as well as equity is found in many attempts to describe it. Much work (over 500 efforts) has been devoted to developing quantitative indicators of sustainable development. The emphasis on sustainability indicators has multiple motivations, including: decision-making and management, advocacy, participation and consensus-building, and research and analysis. We select a dozen prominent examples and use this review to highlight their similarities and differences in motivation, definition of sustainable development, salience, credibility, and legitimacy, and technical characteristics of data selection, scale, units of analysis, and methods of aggregation. We conclude that there are no indicator sets that are universally accepted, backed by compelling theory, rigorous data collection and analysis, and influential in policy because of the ambiguity of sustainable development, the plurality of purpose in measuring sustainable development, and the confusion of terminology, data, and methods of measurement. A major step in reducing such confusion would be the acceptance of distinctions in terminology, data, and methods among; goals, indicators, targets, trends, driving forces, and policy responses, as well as research on scale, aggregation, and critical limits and thresholds. |
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| Adaptive environmental policy and technological change: Technology-policy feedbacks in the international ozone-layer regime with lessons for the design of technology assessment processes. |
| Author: Parson, Edward
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| Institutional Affiliation: John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University |
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| Panel Title: Scientific Knowledge, Controversy, and Assessment in Global-Change Regimes |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Reciprocal influences between environmental policy and technological innovation can generate alternative equilibrium states that are characterized by low and high confidence about the feasibility of altering present practices to reduce environmental burdens, each state sustained by positive-feedback processes. When confidence in the feasibility of alternatives, efforts to pursue them, and dissemination of relevant technical knowledge are all low (particularly when knowledge is principally held by those with stakes in the status quo), policy actors usually cannot win the arguments or build the coalitions necessary to enact, or even credibly to threaten, policies that would require or motivate development of such alternatives. But absent the enactment or threat of such policies, incentives to make the development efforts that could challenge or modify this low confidence in alternatives are weak. Alternatively, high confidence in the feasibility of alternatives, high development efforts, widespread dissemination of relevant knowledge, and salient threats of increasingly aggressive policies can also interact to sustain each other. International efforts to control ozone depletion from the 1970s to the 1990s illustrate both these equilibrium states, and the crucial role of appropriately designed technology assessment processes in mediating the feedbacks to sustain the latter, high-confidence equilibrium state. |
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| Institutional Change During Phases of Technological Transition: The Case of the Dutch Waste Management Sector |
| Author: Parto, Saeed
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| Co-Author(s): Derk Loorbach |
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| Institutional Affiliation: MERIT |
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| Panel Title: Innovation and Technology for Managing Human-Environment Systems |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| For policy-makers and political economists concerned with sustainable development, analyses of routines and evolutionary dynamics in technological change should address the question of 'why' as well as how evolutionary change occurs. Numerous studies of innovation dynamics have underlined the importance of the institutional context. There remains, however, a significant gap between the extensive literature on sustainability and the equally impressive body of literature on innovation and institutions. A major difficulty in bridging this gap arises from the multiplicity of meanings and interpretations associated with the phrases 'institution', 'evolutionary change', and of course, sustainability. There are in addition numerous 'systems', 'scales', and 'levels' at or through which institutions, evolutionary change, and sustainability may be studied.
In searching for pathways to sustainability, analyses of technological change and innovation at the firm, sector, and cluster levels should be complemented with a dynamic perspective on institutional change. To contextualize the innovation process in the institutions of economic activity we need to understand how institutions recreate themselves and how they facilitate or curtail advancement toward sustainability. To this end we offer a multi-system, scalar, and multi-level typology of institutions and reconceptualize the notion of 'transition' (Rotmans, Kemp, and van Asselt 2001). We then devise an analytical framework to conduct institutional analysis of the policy processes that underpin transitions. This framework is used to identify the key factors and conditions whose convergence might have resulted in transitions, or technological regime shifts, in the Dutch waste management sector. Our contribution is threefold. First, we offer a reflexive foundation for conducting institutional analysis. Second, we examine technological regime shifts from a complex systems perspective and in an institutional context. Third, we make recommendations for narrowing the gaps between the policy process and (ecologically sustainable) technological transitions.
Literature cited
Rotmans, J., R. Kemp, and M. van Asselt (2001). "More evolution than revolution: Transition management in public policy." The Journal of Futures Studies, Strategic Thinking and Policy. 3:15-31
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| Characterizing large-scale technological transitions in the context of Indian economy with a generic framework and its application in the transport sector energy efficiency, particularly with the fuel switching options |
| Author: Patankar, Mahesh
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| Co-Author(s): Anand Patwardhan |
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| Institutional Affiliation: SJM School of Management, Indian Institute of Technology ¿ Bombay |
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| Panel Title: Transitions Towards Sustainability: How to Understand Them? (IHDP IT Session 2) |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Effective abatement of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is likely to require technological regime changes in the energy system including production and consumption. In many cases, this will require rapid diffusion of clean technologies at a large-scale. Changes in technology regimes in energy and industrial systems are likely to happen as a consequence of co-evolution of individual and complementing technologies resulting in technological regimes supported by determinants such as technology system, developing institutions, presence of market, policy support, and political will. As a part of this study, a basic framework defining technology, technology system, and technology regime is developed. Describing the case study of milk revolution in India validates this framework. A specific framework applicable to transport infrastructure is developed. Use of CNG as an alternate fuel in Mumbai and New Delhi public transport system is evaluated using the framework. The insights from the cases and the literature review are used to evolve a framework for identifying and characterizing regime change. A review of the technology diffusion literature to identify the determinants and measuring the determinants was carried out. This framework could be used as a predictive model to characterize different transport regimes with technology and modal interventions. |
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| Adapting to Climate Change and Climate Variability: Decision-Making Under Uncertainty by Farmers in Zimbabwe |
| Author: Patt, Anthony
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| Co-Author(s): Pablo Suarez |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Boston University |
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| Panel Title: Rural Livelihoods and Climate Variability: Insights for Adaptation to Longer Term Change |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Adapting to climate change, especially in developing countries, will require decision-making not only by government agencies, but also by private individuals operating under financial and institutional constraints and conditions of high uncertainty. To the extent that these decisions make use of relevant information about potential climate change impacts, and include sound analysis of the relationships between the choices available and the outcomes of those choices, we can expect people's adaptive capacity to be constrained only by the resources and options they have available. On the other hand, there are reasons to believe that people will fail to include all of the relevant information, and will solve many problems involving uncertainty in ways that fail to meet their own long-term objectives. An extensive literature in the fields of behavioral economics, environmental psychology, and risk communication has documented many ways in which people consistently'and hence predictably'make choices that deviate in particular ways from those which would best serve them.
This paper presents results from an empirical study among subsistence farmers in Zimbabwe, undertaken specifically to test many of these theories in the context of adaptation to climate variability. The study examines how farmers use forecasts about the likelihood of sufficient rain for the coming season, and in particular, how they cope with uncertainty and probabilistic information. A critical feature of this study is the varying of the ways in which these farmers receive and are given the opportunity to analyze the forecasts with the guidance of outside experts. The results indicate a high degree of conservatism among farmers, and hence a bias towards underutilizing the information. But under some situations, some of them surprising, farmers appear more likely to take adaptive measures as a result of the forecasts.
The results of this study shed insight into what the potential cognitive and decision-making barriers are likely to limit adaptation to climate change. In addition, the study suggests ways in which, through particular methods of communication, some of these barriers can be overcome, or at least their effects minimized.
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| Workable environmental law and the international dimension: puzzling to cherency |
| Author: Peeters, Marjan
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| Institutional Affiliation: Universitu Maastricht
Senior researcher |
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| Panel Title: Regulations and Environmental Change |
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| Paper Link: docs/peeters.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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Among other policy strategies, regulatory tools remain a basic method for governments. On the basis of legislation, prohibitions and sanctions can be imposed on citizens and firms. Also financial duties, like environmental taxes, need a legislative base. And without the prohibition that without an emission right no pollution will be caused, emissions trading could not work.
The effectiveness and efficiency of regulatory measures have often been discussed. It is easy to say that the environmental regulatory measures must be part of a coherent legal network, aiming at an integrated approach of polluting behaviour. Nevertheless, the creation of such a network - for which no blueprint exists - seems to be a rather difficult task, to be carried out in a (national) political process. Many different legal frameworks exist.
The quality and coherence of regulation remains a point of interest as new environmental problems (like the climate change problem) and new type of regulations (like emissions trading) arise. In fact, new developments 'meet' the existing national legal frameworks, with its structure, principles, instruments, procedures, competences, sanctions, and administrative organisation. With new developments, new questions arise, and certain starting points of the existing legal framework maybe must be reconsidered.
In the process to the conclusion of international legal binding agreements, the national representatives can not adhere fully to their own specific national environmental legislative framework. The international legal binding agreements protecting the (global) environment can therefore cause that parts of the national legal framework must be reconsidered or renewed. Meanwhile, the implementation of the international agreements can lead to less differences between the several national frameworks. In other words, international environmental agreements lead in a certain extent to harmonisation of national legal environmental frameworks.
In this paper the international acceptation of emissions trading in the context of climate change will serve as a case-study. So, the influence of the international choice for emissions trading on national legal frameworks will be discussed. More specifically, it will investigate which starting points of the legal framework of the Netherlands (and / or the European Union) probably must be reconsidered or renewed.
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| Social capital and the micropolitics of vulnerability |
| Author: Pelling, Mark
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| Institutional Affiliation: University of Liverpool |
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| Panel Title: Adapting to Global Change: The Role of Social Networks and Institutions |
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| Paper Link: docs/Pelling.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| Social capital has become a buzz-word in development discourse whilst continuing to have a variety of usages and meanings attached to it. This paper conceives of social capital as operating on two levels. At a lowest, interpersonal level it can be felt in the social norms and customs that lead individuals towards or away from regular social interaction and mutually supportive personal relationships. At a higher, organizational level social capital can be found in the organizational richness of a social group. It is argued here that social capital can work for and against efforts to build local resiliency to climate change and extremes. Case material from marginalized and at risk individuals in low-income neighbourhoods from Santo Domingo, Guyana and Barbados forms the empirical base of the paper. Despite high levels of risk, vulnerability and poverty these areas are characterized by high levels of social capital as indicated by informal reciprocity and daily interaction. However, in each case structural barriers have reduced local capacity for building up informal social capital into formal organizational capital with which to build resiliency to external shocks and stress. Structural barriers include: rapid modernization and social mobility, competition and conflict between local political party activists and community workers, and uncertainty of the individual costs and benefits of participating in formal organizational structures. Successful strategies for building local resilience are encountered. Good practice in extra-local organizations seeking to build local resilience is found in those interventions that allow grassroots actors to define their own priorities of risk, and that undertake to enter into a long-term relationship with local stakeholders, but one that is aware of pre-existing social hierarchies and the tensions between empowerment and dependency. |
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| Industrial Migration in the Chemical Sector: Do Countries with Lax Environmental Regulations Specialize in Polluting Industries? |
| Author: Persson, Martin
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| Institutional Affiliation: Department of Physical Resource Theory,
Chalmers University of Technology,
Gothenburg, Sweden |
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| Panel Title: Globalization and Environment |
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| Paper Link: docs/persson.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| This study sets out to capture the effect that environmental policy has on trade and specifically then examining the notion that lax environmental regulations will constitute a basis of comparative advantage, causing the least regulated jurisdictions to specialize in polluting industries. This is done partly by a survey of the empirical literature on this subject and partly by performing an econometrical test of this, the so-called pollution haven hypothesis. The literature survey presents evidence of a relocation of production capacity in polluting industries towards less developed countries, with generally less stringent environmental regulations, during the last decades. Although, there is little evidence that this shift has primarily been driven by differences in environmental regulations, it is more likely to be explained by other factors such as increasing domestic demand and more abundant natural resource endowments in the industrialising countries. The econometrical test adopts a Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek (HOV) model of trade, regressing net exports from 54 countries in 23 sectors of the chemical industry on endowments in seven factors of production and two measures of stringency of environmental regulations based on emissions of sulphur dioxide emissions (SO2) on a national level and emissions organic matter in wastewater (BOD) in the chemical sector. Though results indicate that environmental regulations have an effect on trade in a few sectors, most notably in the inorganic chemical sector, the effect is quantitatively weak and the results are sensitive to changes in the model. Thus, the weight of evidence suggests that environmental regulations have had a limited impact on global trade flows and production patterns to date, even in the most polluting industry sectors.
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| Industry Induced landuse Changes |
| Author: Peter, Nila Rekha
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| Co-Author(s): N.K. Ambujam, D. Deboral Vimala , M. Jayanthi, Nagamani |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Central Institute of Brackishwater Aquaculture |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Development without endangering the environment is a crucial issue the world is facing today. The ultimate goal of development is to achieve and maintain a balance between resources development for the welfare of the population and resource conservation to safe guard resources for future generation and to maintain the ecological diversity. Industrial growth has been attributed as the cause for environmental pollution in many places. Information on the existing landuse its spatial distribution, and changes in and around the industrial region will show the real scenario. Land use and land cover changes are critically linked to the intersection of natural and human influences on environmental change. The understanding of the dynamics of land utilisation aspects such as cropping pattern, fallow land, forests, grazing land, waste lands, surface water bodies etc. in and around the industrial region are essential for regularizing the development and management of land resources for the future expansion and to plan for optimum land use for sustained development. In the present study the changes that has occurred over the years due to the establishment of the paper mill had been assessed using the Remote Sensing and Geographic Information system (GIS). To study the land use changes a radius of approximately 3 km around the paper mill has been considered. Moreover the people nearby the industry were also interviewed with a structured interview schedule to assess their perception about the changes . The study revealed that the barren land in the neighborhood of the industry has been converted into irrigated area and people nearby were also benefited in conjunction with the pollution. |
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| Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Scenarios |
| Author: Peterson, Gary
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| Institutional Affiliation: null |
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| Panel Title: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| No abstract available. |
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| Household & Community Responses To Arsenic Contamination In Bangladesh |
| Author: Pfaff, Alex
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| Co-Author(s): M. Madajewicz |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Columbia University |
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| Panel Title: Environmental Change and Human Health |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Probably tens of millions of people in Bangladesh are consuming groundwater containing arsenic at levels at least an order of magnitude above the 10 ug/L WHO arsenic guideline. Thousands of cases of arsenicosis and various forms of cancer attributable to arsenic have already been reported in what is likely to be only the first phase of a case of mass poisoning on an unprecedented scale. Evaluation of proposed approaches to the provision of information, the organization of access to safe water, and the treatment of arsenicosis will be of great value. This will require the integrated expertise of earth scientists studying the chemical and physical processes that mobilize arsenic from soils into water, health scientists linking arsenic exposures to health outcomes and social scientists studying households' and communities' responses to this major health crisis.
Well testing and education campaigns are the primary interventions to this point. When universally implemented, they are likely to significantly improve short-term access to safe water. Long-term solutions may involve participatory, collective actions as well, such as community piped-water initiatives. Yet research that demonstrates the best approaches to catalyzing such collective response options is relatively scarce.
Our project is providing systematic evidence on the effects of different ways of facilitating and organizing such responses. Household surveys following NGO well testing and education campaigns permit evaluation of campaigns' effects on household awareness and household choice of water source, and measures of the changes in welfare resulting from these changes in water source. They also create a baseline set of data at household level for the evaluation of innovative pilot projects, which will be carried out in future years to catalyze both individual and collective actions. Such organization of different ways to improve long-term access to safe water is possible through joint work with local NGOs. Here we present results from early household surveys of effects of education and testing. |
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| Living with Uncertainty: Approaches to Improve Decision Making using Probabilistic Climate Information in Uganda |
| Author: Phillips, Jennifer
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| Co-Author(s): Ben Orlove |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Bard Center for Environmental Policy |
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| Panel Title: Rural Livelihoods and Climate Variability: Insights for Adaptation to Longer Term Change |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| The usefulness of seasonal climate forecast information in decision making is limited as a result of the uncertainty associated with any particular prediction. Still, skillful forecasts are routinely released in East Africa and elsewhere by regional and national meteorological services. We test an approach to facilitating the incorporation of seasonal forecasts into farm management decisions in Uganda, using tailored radio broadcasts in local languages, radio listening groups, and focus group discussions. Key findings are a) group processing of information is culturally familiar to our Ugandan participants and provides a positive context for improving the ability to judge, comprehend and consider alternative applications of new information in decision making; and b) framing climate forecast information in the context of other, familiar prediction schemes, including the accepted uncertainty associated with indigenous predictions of environmental phenomena, improves acceptance of the probabilistic nature of Met-based forecasts and therefore improves risk management. These findings are likely to hold lessons beyond improving the utilization of seasonal climate forecasts, since a major impediment to decision making under climate change is the degree of uncertainty in expected outcomes. By facilitating group dialogue, paying attention to framing of information, and increasing general awareness and knowledge regarding climate-environment interactions, communities are better prepared for anticipated climate extremes associated with global warming. |
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| Historical CO2 Emissions and Concentrations (1700-1990) due to land-use change by country |
| Author: Pires de Campos, Christiano
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| Co-Author(s): Maria Silvia Muylaert, Luiz Pinguelli Rosa |
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| Institutional Affiliation: International Virtual Institute on Global Change
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| Panel Title: Global Politics of Carbon Emissions |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| The historical contribution by country to climate change can be used as a basis of analysis for the second period of commitments to the burden share among the Annex I and no-Annex I Parties to the United Nations Framework on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The historical greenhouse gases emission inventories is an important tool to evaluate the common but differentiated responsibilities of countries according to principle of the UN Climate Convention (1992). Since 1997, the UNFCCC Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice - SBSTA is analysing the contributions to global warming, promoting many expert meetings.
To attend the necessity of estimate the contribution to the climate change, it is necessary to elaborate trustful greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions methodologies and databases. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) elaborated in 1996 the guidelines for inventorying the greenhouse gas emissions for recent years. The historical main source of greenhouse gas emission is the fossil fuel consumption, and it is well estimated by country. Other great source of greenhouse emission is the land use change, but it is not well estimated by country. The literature presents the land-use change historical CO2 emissions by regions or continents, but not by country. We have used the HYDE land-use database (1700-1750-1800-1850-1900-1950-1970-1990), and the country geographic boundaries database provided by the ArcView software to estimate the land-use change areas by country. We have estimated the land-use change CO2 emission using the latest published estimative for biomass factor by biome and the Master dissertation of Christiano Pires de Campos. We have tested the robustness of the land use change emission database from 1700-1990 using different bibliography sources and its sensibility analysis. We present the results of the CO2 historical emissions due to land-use change by country, and its concentrations along the last 290 years (1750-1990) using the BERN model. |
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| Uncertainty in Extrapolations of Predictive Land Change Models |
| Author: Pontius Jr., Robert G.
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| Institutional Affiliation: Clark University |
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| Panel Title: Designing Landcover Change Models to Meet Policy Needs |
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| Paper Link: docs/Pontius.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| Land-use change models have become important tools to guide policies to manage natural resources. For example, the Kyoto Protocol calls for carbon credits to be awarded for conservation projects that prevent deforestation. Land use change models predict the amount of prevented deforestation hence the amount of the carbon credit, so it is essential to know the level of certainty in model simulations.
Scientists are now creating land-use change simulation models faster than we can validate them, because the techniques to measure the goodness-of-fit of validation are the least sophisticated tools in the standard toolbox of the contemporary land change modeler. The first part of this paper presents a novel technique of model validation that is designed to help the modeler understand fundamental information required to assess and to improve the model. The technique compares the simulated map to the truth map with respect to: 1) the quantity of each land category and 2) the location of each land category. This analysis is performed at multiple resolutions in order to examine how scale influences the measurement of the model's accuracy.
Policy makers are less interested than scientists in the statistical techniques of validation, because the process of validation measures how well a model can predict a landscape for which truth data already exists. It is more important for policy makers to know the level of trust that they should put in a model's extrapolation into an unknown future. Therefore, the second part of this paper offers an even newer method to use the accuracy of the validation to estimate the level of certainty of the model's extrapolation into the unknown future. For extrapolation over short time intervals, nearly any model has a high level of accuracy because persistence dominates most landscapes. The predictive power of the model decays as the time interval of the extrapolation becomes larger. The rate of decay depends on the predictive power of the model. This paper illustrates the technique of estimating the level of certainty of an extrapolation of land change with an example of suburbanization of a post-industrial city.
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| The Impetus for Decentralization: Understanding Variations in the Devolution of Authority over Natural Resources in Botswana and Uganda |
| Author: Poteete, Amy
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| Institutional Affiliation: University of New Orleans |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Although decentralization of natural resource management is widely expected to improve environmental management and local livelihoods, many decentralization policies can be criticized for the superficiality of allowed forms of local participation. Cynics argue that governments are not willing to cede the power required to allow local people to shape policy decisions. Given that governments are yielding some authority over natural resources in numerous countries, there is a need to go beyond cynicism to better understand variation in the degree of decentralization. This paper argues that political actors decide whether and to what extent to devolve authority based on the strength of forces that impede centralized management. Typical obstacles to centralized management include donor pressures, the need for local cooperation to obtain policy goals, and challenges to incumbent politicians. Because these pressures differ in generality and force, they should correspond with project-level, sectoral, regional, and cross-national variations in the extent of decentralization. Comparisons of decentralization in land use, forestry, and wildlife in multiple regions of Botswana and Uganda reveal exactly this sort of variation in decentralization. |
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| Transformations in the Gas Sector of Russia over the Period of Reforms |
| Author: Poussenkova, Nina
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| Institutional Affiliation: Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences |
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| Panel Title: Industrial Transformation: Taking Stock of Regional Approaches (IHDP IT Session 4) |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| The author describes the IT project 'Carbon Flows between Eastern and Western Europe' and analyses its findings related to transformations in Russia's gas industry at state and corporate levels aimed at attracting foreign investments, stabilizing gas production, improving efficiency and eliminating losses in the gas sector and meeting the demand of domestic and foreign gas consumers.
Though Russia possesses abundant gas reserves the developments of the transition period (non-payments and low gas prices) prevented Gazprom from commissioning new fields. A shortage of gas for domestic consumption and exports is forecast. The government and Gazprom have to change their approach to gas utilisation.
It is especially important for Gazprom to meet its export commitments to Western Europe that ensure ' of budget revenues and underwrite its investment projects. Plans are discussed to raise domestic gas prices to the level of export prices in Europe, but it could result in serious inflationary effects. Russia also buys gas from Turkmenistan to satisfy the domestic demand and ensure gas supplies to rural regions. Another initiative is aimed at increasing coal production and increase its share in the domestic energy mix where gas currently dominates to free additional volumes of gas for exports and increase, but it will have negative implications for domestic CO2 emissions, the state of the environment and human health.
An important development in Russia's gas sector is the emergence of independent gas producers focusing on small fields that Gazprom is not interested in. It can facilitate the liberalisation of gas market, strengthen energy security and improve access to gas for residential consumers, especially in remote regions where currently population can be deprived of energy supplies.
Gazprom, realizing that the 'era of cheap and easy gas is over', is implementing an energy-saving strategy aimed at releasing gas volumes for supplying domestic consumers or exports; cutting operating costs, reducing gas losses, emissions of GHG and pollutants. The company calculated that investments in energy saving are lower than in commissioning of new fields.
The author forecasts the future transformations in the gas sector and their significance for gas exports, energy security and the environment. |
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| Four-tired Approach of Diagnostics, Field Campaigns, Laboratory Experiments, and Modeling to Understand the Linkages between Climate Variability and Malaria Outbreaks in Colombia. |
| Author: Poveda, German
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| Co-Author(s): M.L. Quinones, I.D. Velez, G.L. Rua, W. Rojas, D. Ruiz, L.E. Velasquez, J.S. Zuluaga, O.Hernandez, E. Zapata |
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| Institutional Affiliation: GRADUATE PROGRAMME IN WATER RESOURCES
SCHOOL OF GEOSCIENCES AND ENVIRONMENT
UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL DE COLOMBIA AT MEDELLIN |
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| Panel Title: Vulnerability to Multiple Stressors: Globalization and Climate Change |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event is the most important modulator of climate variability at interannual timescales in Colombia. The warm phase of ENSO (El Niño) is associated in Colombia with below normal precipitation, river discharges and soil moisture, and increased air temperature. Such hydro-climatic anomalies are strongly associated with outbreaks of malaria by P. vivax and P. falciparum in endemic low-land regions of the country (Poveda et al., 2001). Here, we report results from a four-tired research study to understand the linkages existing between the observed malaria outbreaks during El Niño and changes in hydro-climatic variables in Colombia. Studies are conducted to: (1) Develop diagnostics analyses of historical records including hydrological and climatological data, as well as entomological and epidemiological data at national, regional and locality level, with focus on two endemic and epidemic regions on the low-lands of Colombia, namely Nuqui (Choco, in the Pacific coast) and El Bagre (along the Cauca river flood plain, northwestern Colombia); (2) Conduct field work at those localities to construct a data base on entomological variables such as mosquito biting rates, mosquito parity rates, larval density, vector survival rates, as well as data on climatic conditions and physical and chemical variables at breeding sites; (3) Conduct laboratory experiments to determine the influence of temperature on important entomological variables such as duration of the gonotrophic cycle of An. Albimanus and life expectancy of the mosquito, finding rigorous evidence of the non-linear nature of such influence. (4) A mathematical model of the malaria-climate association is being developed to model malaria transmission rates at Nuqui (Choco), and El Bagre (Antioquia), using Systems Dynamics. The model is being evaluated with promising results. Additionally, we are developing a Geographical Information System for Malaria in Colombia (SIGMA), in Java Language, which includes data bases of incidence, vector presence, and geographical risks at national, regional and local levels in Colombia, along with climatological indices and variables. |
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| Assessing change in urban land cover using satellite imagery: Manaus, Brasil (1992-2001) |
| Author: Powell, Rebecca
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| Co-Author(s): Dar Roberts, Laura Hess |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Department of Geography
University of California, Santa Barbara |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: docs/powell.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| Urban areas are currently among the most rapidly changing types of land cover on the planet. Though they cover only a few percent of the world's land surface, urban areas are the location of concentrated human activities, and are thereby sites of significant natural resource transformation. Spatial patterns of urban growth result from the interplay of environmental and social systems. Assessing change in urban land-cover composition and distribution can provide valuable insights concerning the interaction between such systems, as well as the environmental and social impacts of urban change.
Remote sensing imagery can provide a timely and synoptic view of urban development. To effectively map urban areas using remotely sensed imagery requires a set of consistent measures to describe urban land-cover. To this end, we characterize the physical urban environment in terms of three primary components: vegetation, impervious surfaces, and soil (V-I-S components), in addition to water. The abundance of these components is quantified on a per pixel basis by applying spectral mixture analysis to Landsat TM imagery. Aerial videography is used to relate spectral properties of urban surfaces with physical materials on the ground, as well as to assess the accuracy of the final products.
Imagery that includes the region around Manaus, Brasil, is analyzed for two dates, separated by almost a decade. Change in urban land cover between dates is assessed in two ways: (1) a pixel-to-pixel comparison of changes in the V-I-S components and (2) changes in the percent of V-I-S components averaged within the 2000 Census Sector boundaries, the smallest aerial census unit available. The latter will become the basis for comparing characteristics of the physical environment and of the city's population through time.
This work represents part of a larger project to develop a systematic methodology to characterize the physical composition and geographic distribution of urban areas. The techniques are reproducible, provide measures that are physically meaningful, and generate data sets that are comparable on a global scale. Such data sets can contribute to longitudinal studies of urban ecology and can support studies analyzing the relationships between physical and human environments of urban areas. |
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| Trade Liberalisation and Environment in Pacific Forum Island Countries (FICs): Is it a Case of "Two Gains For One"? |
| Author: Prasad, Biman Chand
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| Co-Author(s): John Asafu-Adjaye |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Department of Economics
The University of the South Pacific
IHDP Fiji Branch
Suva |
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| Panel Title: Globalization and Environment |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Trade liberalization policies pursued by the Forum Island Countries (FICs) have been further cemented as an appropriate strategy for economic growth through the recently adopted trade agreements. The Pacific Agreement on Closer Economic Relations (PACER) and Pacific Islands Countries Trade Agreement (PICTA) will provide a basis for trade integration. While the PACER is a broad framework for future negotiations with other countries and regions, the PICTA will allow trade integration amongst the 14 forum island countries. Trade liberalization is expected to provide greater impetus to export-led growth in the FICs. Proponents of trade liberalization also argue that free trade leads to improvements in environmental quality. According to the 'Environmental Kuznets Curve' (EKC) hypothesis there would initially be some environmental degradation but as income rises through free trade, demand for higher environmental quality would lead to improvements in the quality of the environment. This paper argues that this is an overly optimistic expectation for FICs. The fragile environment of the FICs cannot be left to the vagaries of free trade and the expected rise in income and hence environmental quality. It is suggested that FICs should have complementary environmental and social policies to ensure that the environment is sustainably managed and the poor are not left out in the new economic environment. Some of these policies could even be adopted as regional agreements along with the trade agreement. Free trade amongst the FICs therefore is not a case of "two gains for one". That is, we cannot expect both a rise in per capita income and environmental quality to be delivered simultaneously without the adoption of complementary environmental and social policies. The vulnerable environment of the FICs cannot wait for environmental quality based on the EKC hypothesis. |
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| Tree Growing Investment Decisions of Smallholder Farmers in Claveria, Northern Mindanao, Philippines |
| Author: Predo, Canesio
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| Co-Author(s): Herminia A. Francisco |
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| Institutional Affiliation: National Abaca Research Center
Leyte State University
Visca, Baybay, Leyte |
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| Panel Title: Economic and Social Aspects of Forest Management Systems |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| This study aimed to identify the factors that could help explain land use decisions by smallholder farmers. Specifically, the study aimed to (i) analyze the factors influencing smallholder farmers' decision to invest in tree-based land use systems, and (ii) draw policy implications that may enhance adoption of tree-based land use systems among smallholder farmers. The study was conducted in Claveria, Misamis Oriental, Mindanao, Philippines. It made use of interviews from 192 farmer-respondents, 86% of whom practiced tree-based farming systems and the rest planted short-term cash crops, with as the dominant crop.
Tobit regression analysis was used to analyze the factors influencing farmers' investment decision in tree-based land use systems. Results revealed that high relative price variability (timber price vis-à-vis cash crop prices) deters tree planting. Farmers tree-growing decisions also depend on: (1) current price levels and forecast price changes; (2) socio-economic characteristics such as household size, age, and education; (3) farm characteristics given by cultivable land-man ratio, and farm size; (4) land tenure; (5) knowledge about tree-based land use systems; and (6) membership in landcare association.
The study recommended that since price risk appears to be the major deterrent to expansion of tree farming, measures to reduce said risk or to improve risk management capability of farmers be analyzed. Provision of relevant and timely price information and price risk insurance are possibilities. A higher knowledge level of smallholders on the economic and environmental benefits of tree-based systems enhanced tree-growing investment. Thus, there is a need to continue the information dissemination activities through farmers' trainings and seminars. The long-term nature of the investment in trees requires security of land tenure as confirmed by the adoption model. For this reason, a policy that would assure smallholders to reap the benefits of their tree growing investments is necessary. Finally, the influence of landcare association on farmers' decision to adopt tree-based land use systems implies the need of this local initiative to be further enhanced and developed in other areas through extension and training support.
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| Vulnerability and Adaptation of Watershed Communities |
| Author: Pulhin, Juan Magboo
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| Institutional Affiliation: University of the Philippines Los Banos |
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| Panel Title: Fragile Ecosystems |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Watershed areas in the Philippines are believed to be among those to be adversely affected by climate change. In the absence of effective adaptation strategies, climate change is likely to impede the country's effort towards sustainable development. Watersheds are critical to the economic and development and environmental protection. More than 70% of the total land area lies within watersheds. It is estimated that no less than 1.5 million hectares of agricultural lands presently derive irrigation water from watersheds. There are between 18 to 20 million people inhabiting the uplands of many watersheds.
Previous studies on the impacts of climate change in watershed areas have focused on the biophysical aspects. Completely lacking are studies that delve into the human dimension of climate change in watershed areas. In particular, there is hardly information on the impacts of climate change on watershed communities. Even more limited is the knowledge on the vulnerability of these communities to climate variability and extremes and their adaptation strategies to these phenomena.
This paper presents the initial findings of an integrated assessment of climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation among watershed communities in the Pantabangan-Carranglan Watershed in the Philippines. The paper is divided into four parts. Following a brief introduction, the second part discusses the methodology followed for assessing the impacts and vulnerability of watershed communities and their adaptation strategies to climate variability and extremes. The third part highlights the findings of the integrated assessment with emphasis on vulnerability and adaptation strategies of watershed communities to climate variability and extremes. The last part discuses the preliminary conclusions and implications of the study. The study forms part of a global research program entitled Assessment of Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change (AIACC) with funding support from the Global Environmental Facility. |
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| Assessing the Role of Wood Products In Mitigating Climate Change |
| Author: Pulhin, Florencia
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| Institutional Affiliation: University of the Philippines Los Baños |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Timber harvesting and production of wood products are important components of the Philippines' carbon budget. However, there is no information available on the amount of carbon released and stored from forests, wood products down to their end uses. To help fill this gap, the study aimed at assessing the possible contribution of wood products in mitigating climate change in the Philippines.
Flow of carbon from the forests up to the final uses of wood products was tracked to determine the remaining amount of carbon in the wood products. Research results were used to assess the greenhouse gases (GHG) sources and sinks of the land use change and forestry (LUCF) sector using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines. The study also determined the carbon stocks in the biomass, soil and wood products using the CO2 Fix Model.
Results indicated that 1.74 Gg carbon are retained in the long-term (35-60 years) wood products out of the total 9.23 Gg carbon contained in the logs extracted. The value represented 27% of the original carbon in the harvested logs. This figure was used to calculate carbon uptake and emission of the LUCF sector. Inventory results revealed that net carbon absorption is higher by 2 Mt than the 2001 inventory where carbon in the wood products was not incorporated in the conduct of GHG inventory.
Using the CO2 Fix Model to estimate carbon in the forest ecosystem and wood products, results indicated that total carbon contained in the biomass, soil and products followed a decreasing trend when land was allocated to timber production. From a total of 395.27 Mg carbon in year 35, carbon was reduced to 238.79 Mg in Year 175.
In conclusion, huge amounts of carbon are emitted to the atmosphere during the manufacturing of the wood products. However, there is substantial amount of carbon locked-up in the final products until the end of their life span. |
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| Economic Benefits and Conservation Linkages From Tourism Development in the Sikkim Hiamalaya, India |
| Author: Rai, Suresh Chand
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| Institutional Affiliation: G.B. Pant Institute of Himalayan Environment and Development, North-East Unit, Vivek Vihar, Itanagar-791113, Arunachal Pradesh |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Tourism sector has developed as a major industry in recent times, and there has been an increasing trend to bring more and more new areas under this reach. Sikkim is a tiny hill state in the eastern Himalayan region and it has been a hot spot of tourism due to its magnificently diverse landscapes, high biodiversity and rich cultural heritage, which has also generated a good source of income and employment to youths and rural masses. The region has been identified as an important ecotourism destination. This paper analyses the dynamics of tourism growth, economic and environmental benefits and participatory conservation and protection of natural resources by different stakeholders in the Sikkim State of India based on the study done in the most popular tourist's destination for trekking and nature tourism in Khangchendzonga Biosphere Reserve. The annual tourist's influx in Sikkim State has increased by about ten times over a span of last 10 years. At present nearly 69% of total households income came from tourism related activities, which increased the income and the consumption pattern of the community. Interestingly the local stakeholders have increased their share to conserve the biodiversity through organizing themselves in Khangchendzonga Conservation Committee (KCC), and managing site enhancement activities. The study suggests that the area has an economic potential far greater than its realized earning potential and that more effort is needed to increase the level of conservation contributions to fulfil the goal of ecotourism. |
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| Georeferenced Population Data: Implications for Development Policy |
| Author: Rain, David
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| Institutional Affiliation: U.S. Census Bureau
International Programs Center |
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| Panel Title: Assessment of High-Risk Natural Disaster Hotspots |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| This paper will review the results of a pilot project undertaken by the U.S. Census Bureau to estimate population for populated places in countries without recent census data. It will discuss the implications of this potential shift to georeferenced population data for development policy. A center within the U.S. Census Bureau, the International Programs Center (IPC) analyzes population data for outside clients and provides technical assistance around the world to country governments on the techniques of conducting censuses and surveys. Through an interagency agreement with the U.S. Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance, IPC has been developing a GIS-based methodology to estimate current populations of individual places (cities, towns, and villages) in countries without recent census results at that level. The project has included the use of nighttime lights, Landsat, and other satellite imagery; presence of local infrastructure; administrative boundaries; and NIMA=s populated places. We have evaluated model output by statistical correlation with census data that are available, and by contacts in the field. Products include place names, latitude-longitude coordinates, place (or ?P?) codes, and the population estimates. Such information has proved to be valuable in emergency responses to natural or human-induced disasters affecting countries for which reliable population and location information may not be available. Four countries in West Africa (Côte d?Ivoire, Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone) are serving as prototypes. |
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| Assessment of High-Risk Natural Disaster Hotspots of Sri Lanka |
| Author: Ralapanawe, Vidhura
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| Co-Author(s): Lareef Zubairf |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Ralapanawe Associates |
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| Panel Title: Assessment of High-Risk Natural Disaster Hotspots |
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| Paper Link: docs/Ralapanawe.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| A sub-national assessment of natural hazard risks, vulnerability to hazards and of disaster risk has been carried out for Sri Lanka. Hazard risk and vulnerability towards droughts, floods, cyclones and landslides were mapped using data obtained in Sri Lanka. Drought and flood mapping exercises were carried out using a new gridded rainfall data set at a 20-km grid. Cyclone and landslide hazard risks were estimated based on historical incidence data. The interaction among hazards and vulnerability are described along with the consequence of combinations of hazards and vulnerability factors. Our principal findings are that:
1. Useful hazard risk and vulnerability analysis can be carried out with the type of data thatis available in Sri Lanka. The sub-national level analysis of hazards is more useful than that available at the global scale for national level planning and action.
2. Strong spatial variability of hazard risks was found for all the hazards. Vulnerability shows marked spatial variability as well.
3. Multi-hazard analysis brought out regions of high risk from multiple hazards such as Kegalle and Ratnapura Districts in the South West.
4. Climate data was useful in estimating hazard risks in the case of droughts and cyclones and for estimating flood and landslide risk.
5. There is a distinct seasonality to drought, floods, landslides and cyclone hazards in Sri Lanka. Whereas the Eastern regions have high hotspot indices during the boreal fall, the Western slopes regions are risk prone in the summer and the fall. Thus attention is warranted not only at Hot-Spots but also on 'Hot-Seasons'. |
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| Waste Recycling for Biomass Electricity: A Comparison between India and China |
| Author: Rana, Ashish
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| Co-Author(s): Hongwei Yang, Toshihiko Masui |
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| Institutional Affiliation: National Institute for Environmental Studies |
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| Panel Title: Environmentally Sustainable Energy Production |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Wide distribution of biomass makes it a suitable renewable energy option especially for rural areas and also one of the climate change mitigation options. In addition to energy crops, biomass resources include agricultural and forestry residues, landfill gas and municipal solid wastes. While their direct burning has negative environmental effects, their conversion to electricity is environmentally benign. Waste to energy conversion for heat and electricity using agricultural and forestry residues and municipal solid wastes often have good economic and market potential. The objective of this study is to make a model-based comparative assessment of the future situation of India and China with regards to recycling of waste for biomass electricity generation. The comparison of India and China invokes interesting questions for policymakers in the respective countries.
A computable general equilibrium model ' AIM/Material ' is applied to the two countries for comparative study. The AIM/Material model encompasses not only economic but also materials balance making it suitable to analyze policy impacts on GHG mitigation as well as other environmental issues, such as waste management. For the present study, the existing model is modified keeping the objective of comparison in mind. The use of same model to depict the future projections for India and China has advantages for comparison. Future projections to 2030 are made for various energy, environment and economic variables under baseline and policy scenarios. Policy scenarios for waste recycling and technology innovation are undertaken in this study.
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| Designing Optimal Allocation between Carbon Sequestration and Conventional Carbon Abatement |
| Author: Ranjan, Ram
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| Co-Author(s): James Shortle, Richard Horan |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Pennsylvania State University |
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| Panel Title: Nutrient Cycles and Climate Change |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Optimal strategies for controlling atmospheric concentrations of green house gases will entail some mix of emissions reductions and projects to sequester carbon in forests and agricultural soils. One critical issue is the design of optimal allocation between conventional abatement and carbon sequestration. This is complicated by a number of factors.
Firstly, possibilities of both future pollution eliminating technologies and catastrophic events associated with global warming need to be incorporated into the optimization problem. Second, implementation of a socially optimal allocation through market may impose additional challenges as it would need announcement of credible policies over time on part of the planner. This need arises from the fact that sequestration is inter temporal and people incorporate expectations of future events in their current period decisions. Finally, it is not possible to measure sequestration accurately. Therefore, a need arises to allow trading of sequestration activities instead. For example, acreage brought in to plantation could be used to offset carbon emissions, or forgone harvests could be given credit for emissions.
In this paper we use a simplified climate-economy model that links economic benefits to the emissions, and accumulation of stock of GHGs in the atmosphere to emissions and sequestration. By using dynamic programming we then analytically derive the optimal exchange ratio between a unit of carbon abated through conventional means such as end of pipe treatments, and carbon sequestration activities such as afforestation. One important implication of this study is that the possibilities of catastrophic damages or pollution eliminating technological discoveries may have significant impacts on the exchange ratios. For example, biomass sequestered in tress may have lower or higher value in future depending upon whether it is adversely affected by climate change or actually helps mitigate some of the damages through prevention of flooding of low lying areas. Similarly technological advances may eliminate the need for further sequestration thus creating excessive supplies of timber in the market and hence reducing their values. Finally, sequestration possibilities are significantly affected by land-use changes and therefore the socio-economic and demographic dynamics over the next century plays an important role too.
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| Organizational dimensions of decentralization: the case of forest management in Mexico |
| Author: Raufflet, Emmanuel
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| Institutional Affiliation: University of Montreal |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Decentralization in forest management has become de rigueur worldwide. However, the question of what happens ?on the ground? remains under-examined. This paper contends that viewing the ?ground? as composed of organizations in interaction in a local domain sheds light on these local dynamics, which are crucial for the success or failure of decentralization. I present here the findings of a detailed study of forest management in Tlalmanalco, a Mexican community, conducted between 1999 and 2002. It particularly identifies how local organizations mobilize the resources provided by decentralization policies for sustaining their position in the local interorganizational domain. These findings are interesting to highlight how decentralisation policies may not deliver their promises in the two dimensions of (1) improved forest management; and (2) deeper community participation. |
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| Application of multispectral satellite remote sensing to management and monitoring of certified forestry in the tropics |
| Author: Read, Jane
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| Institutional Affiliation: Syracuse University |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Rapid and extensive deforestation, particularly in the tropics, has lead to widespread concerns about sustainability of the world's forests. In particular, selective logging activities degrade large areas of forest, which can in turn make forests vulnerable to natural and human-induced environmental disturbance. Forest certification is being promoted as a tool to help reduce the amount of damage from logging operations and promote sustainable logging of forests. With the emphasis on sustainable forest management practices, there exists a need for increased understandings of the type, extent, and condition of forests, as well as improved knowledge of fine-grained ecological characteristics and processes. With a better understanding of how humid tropical forests and tree species function under selective logging conditions, improved management practices can be developed. In addition, logging certification programs need tools for assessment and monitoring of certified operations that can confer the necessary credibility in international and national market-places. This work explores the application of multispectral satellite remote sensing to certified tropical forestry, focusing on the application of 30-m Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper, 1-m panchromatic and 4-m multispectral IKONOS, and 0.6-m panchromatic and 2.4-m multispectral QuickBird satellite data to a certified logging operation in the Brazilian Amazon.
Intermediate resolution Landsat-ETM+ data and higher resolution IKONOS and QuickBird data were found to have different roles to play in planning, management, operational and monitoring tasks, as well as within the broader context of formulation, assessment, implementation and monitoring of international environmental policy. Key aspects where these, or similar, data can assist managers in developing countries lie in addressing some of the operational barriers common to enterprises seeking to meet certification criteria, namely environmental impact assessments and providing data for monitoring and assessment. Such assessments are crucial where credibility across scales, such as between the certified forestry operation, the certification body, national and international timber markets, and ultimately, international environmental concerns, is key to the success of the system. |
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| Tragedy of Commons in the Pacific: Issues and Challenges in Transition. |
| Author: Reddy, Mahendra
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| Co-Author(s): Biman C. Prasad |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Centre for Development Studies,
School of Social and Economic Development,
University of the South Pacific,
Suva, Fiji |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| The whole world is gradually moving towards economic integration and the forces of globalisation are calling for realignment of domestic economic parameters to allow economic integration to take place. Economic integration not only requires removal of barriers to trade across boarders with respect to product market, but also requires freeing up of the basic factors of production. This issue poses the greatest challenge to the Pacific Island economies which are currently endowed with a Land Tenure System which are common property. Land is communally owned and cannot be sold freely in the market. The common property nature of Pacific Island Land Tenure system lends the Pacific Islands in a peculiar position; a factor market of land, which is not deregulated while the product market is deregulated. This paper will provide a stock take of Land Tenure systems in the Pacific Islands and examine whether Pacific Island countries can maintain its communal land tenure system while at the same time benefit from the open market policies? It will also examine how transition and change in the Pacific island economies resulting from changes in the global market is deriving changes in the land market. The common property nature of land has also been at the centre of national confilict in some of the countries in the Pacific. This paper sets to examine some of the questions in light of the Pacific Island countries. For the purpose of this study, data from 12 small island countries will be examined. |
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| Do humans cause deserts? An old problem through the lens of a new framework: the Dahlem Desertification Paradigm |
| Author: Reynolds, James
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| Co-Author(s): D. Mark Stafford-Smith, Eric Lambin |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Duke University |
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| Panel Title: Carnegie Mellon Approach to Human Dimensions of Global Change |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Desertification is a term associated with land degradation in drylands, and is presumed to result in a reduction in the biological and, hence, economic potential of the land to support human populations, livestock, and wild herbivores. However, others vigorously contest such an interpretation and the debate goes on. What exactly is desertification? Are 17% or 70% of global drylands ?desertified?? There is an urgent need to lessen uncertainties that paralyze action, and for new thinking beyond regional and disciplinary concerns. Towards this end, we present the Dahlem Desertification Paradigm (DDP), a new, interdisciplinary framework for tackling the complex issues of desertification developed at the 88th Dahlem workshop, An Integrated Assessment of the Ecological, Meteorological and Human Dimensions of Global Desertification. At the core of the DDP is the recognition that desertification cannot be framed in terms of single measures alone but must simultaneously involve both biophysical and socio-economic factors. These factors, together with their implications for action, are determinable because a limited number of ?slow? variables determine the dynamics of linked biophysical/socio-economic systems at different scales. The DDP observes how important it is to keep the evolution of each subsystem in balance with that of others through the development of appropriate local environmental knowledge, and cuts through confusion using a well-structured approach that relates defined types of ?degradation? at finer scales to the emergent concept of ?desertification? at broader scales. The DDP framework has implications for research, monitoring, community development programs and policy. In this paper, we describe the DDP and the new international network (ARIDnet), the goals of which are (i) to conduct workshops to debate, evaluate and refinement the DDP; (ii) to formulate working groups to develop comparative case studies to test the DDP; (iii) to develop a quantitative synthesis of what matters in desertification, when and where it matters, and why; (iv) to recruit researchers and stakeholders into the debate so a broad-based and useful approach to desertification problems can be developed; and (v) to maintain a website to support networking activities. |
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| Democratic Decentralization of Natural Resources: Institutionalizing Popular Inclusion |
| Author: Ribot, Jesse
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| Institutional Affiliation: World Resources Institute |
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| Panel Title: Decentralization and Environmental Governance |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| A key component of good forest governance is the nature of the relationship between the center and the periphery, not just between government and local people, but crucially also between government agency headquarters and their field-level staff. This article presents findings and recommendations from research on natural resources in decentralization efforts around the world. The article is based on a World Resources Institute (WRI) Comparative Research Project in Africa, and cases presented at the WRI-organized Conference on Decentralization and Environment in Bellagio, Italy in February 2002. The Africa-wide research project conducted field studies in Cameroon, Mali, South Africa, Uganda and Zimbabwe in 2000 and 2001. The papers presented in Bellagio were based on WRI's African research project, WRI's Resources Policy Support Initiative (REPSI) in South East Asia, plus case studies from Bolivia, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Mongolia, Nicaragua and Thailand. All the cases explore the degree to which natural resource decentralizations have taken place, the degree to which they are democratic in nature, and their measurable equity and environmental outcomes. Most of the cases focus on forestry, while a few explore wildlife and water management. The main recommendations, which reflect key elements found to be lacking in decentralizations, include: 1) Work with democratic local institutions as a first priority, 2) Transfer sufficient and appropriate powers, 3) Transfer powers as secure rights, 4) Support equity and justice, 5) Establish minimum environmental standards, 6) Establish fair and accessible adjudication, 7) Support local civic education, 8) Give decentralization time, and 9) Conduct research to monitor and evaluate decentralization and its outcomes. |
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| Regulating Economic Growth through Financial Organisations |
| Author: Richardson, Benjamin
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| Institutional Affiliation: Osgoode Hall Law School,
York University |
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| Panel Title: Regulations and Environmental Change |
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| Paper Link: docs/Richardson.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| Can financial institutions, such as banks and investors, be harnessed by the state as instruments of environmental regulation to control economic growth? So far, environmental law in most countries has had little to say about the financial aspects of sustainable development. The focus is on reacting to development initiatives and consequential environmental pressures, but not the underlying market forces that fuel growth. If society is to address the problem of 'scale' ' keeping aggregate resource use within biosphere limits ' it must regulate those strategically-placed market institutions that provide the financial resources which shape development. Institutional investors and banks are among the most significant financial institutions, controlling capital allocation and debt finance. To achieve sustainable development, new legal tools are needed to promote ethical finance that takes account of the environmental and social impacts of investment and lending decisions. The primary means available for this task would appear to be: obligations on financial institutions to undertake environmental appraisals of their investment and lending decisions; providing financial (e.g., tax) incentives to investors and lenders to favour environmentally sound companies; mandating corporate environmental reporting to enable financial institutions to effectively assess corporate environmental performance; and making financial institutions liable for environmental damage caused by companies they sponsor. Already, a number of reforms are emerging in this respect, including requirements for pension funds in Europe to disclose their ethical investment policies; new rules on corporate environmental reporting, and use of tax incentives for environmental investment. The effectiveness of these and other reforms is analysed, in the making of recommendations concerning how regulation can best harness financial institutions as instruments to control economic growth. |
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| Coping with climate variability in central Argentina: an analysis of farmers' attitudes toward risk |
| Author: Rivarola, Andrea del Valle
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| Co-Author(s): Marta G. Vinocur, Roberto A. Seiler |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Universidad Nacional de Río Cuarto |
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| Panel Title: Rural Livelihoods and Climate Variability: Insights for Adaptation to Longer Term Change |
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| Paper Link: docs/Rivarola.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| The continuous exposure of the agricultural production systems in the central and south area of the Cordoba province to extreme climatic situations (particularly droughts and floods) generate different levels of risk to farmers and institutions in the region. This study tries to understand how agricultural producers cope with climate variability and which are the adaptation strategies that they have developed to mitigate the negative impacts of climate hazards. Another objective is to know their perception of climate risk and how they incorporate climate information in their decision making process to improve decisions at the farm level considering the social, environmental and economic forces that govern their sensitivity or vulnerability to climatic events. The applied methodolgy consisted in interviews to key informants and interest groups and in formal semi-structured field surveys to farmers. Results from a pilot study indicate that most of the farmers consider climate to be a key factor for their activity. They also have a right perception of the El Niño phenomenon and recognize their influence at the global level although they do not perceive any effect at the regional level. Regarding their attituddes toward climate risks, farmers developed different coping mechanisms and they modified these coping strategies according to the particular event and their economic situation and technological capacity. In most of the cases, farm size and farmer wealth define the introduction of innovative technology or practices at the farm level. Further analysis regarding the underlying factors that determine their decisions is underway. |
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| Interactive Science in the Georgia Basin, Canada: Combining expert knowledge and public values and preferences |
| Author: Robinson, John
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| Institutional Affiliation: Sustainable Development Research Initiative, University of British Columbia |
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| Panel Title: The Georgia Basin Futures Project: Participatory Integrated Assessment at a Regional Scale |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| New developments in thinking about the role and use of science in society, in ways of organizing, manipulating and analyzing data, and in methods of engaging various groups and individuals in interactive forms of dialogue offer the potential for innovative ways to address societal issues such as sustainable development. The Georgia Basin Futures Project and the Georgia Basin Digital Library Project are multi-year collaborative interdisciplinary research projects intended to explore this potential. The underlying goal of both projects is to develop ways of combining expert knowledge, as embodied in various tools, models and databases, with public values and preferences in the exploration of desired futures for the region. To this end a suite of tools have been developed, including Georgia Basin QUEST, the Georgia Basin Digital Library, Science World QUEST, the Climate Change Calculator, the Sustainability Tools and Resources website, and an application of the PRECEED/PROCEED model of behaviour change to the issue of sustainability. These tools embody expert knowledge or various kinds. When combined with the values and preferences of citizens in various community engagement processes, they give rise to concepts of desirable futures as emergent properties of the interaction between expert and lay forms of knowledge. This paper will describe the GBFP and GBDL projects, the tools that have been created and a brief discussion of the ways they are being used. |
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| The Forest Watch Program: A Tool |
| Author: Rock, Barrett
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| Co-Author(s): Ryan Huntley |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Complex Systems Research Center, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH 03824 |
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| Panel Title: Consortium for Atlantic Regional Assessment (CARA): Complex Coupled Systems |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| The University of New Hampshire (UNH) has developed an educational activity that introduces K-12 teachers and students to field, laboratory, and satellite data analysis methods for assessing the impact of ground-level ozone on white pine (Pinus strobus). Workshops help teachers introduce their students to selected hands-on techniques for evaluating the health of white pine, a known bio-indicator for tropospheric ozone exposure. Students become actively involved in meaningful scientific research, collecting and compiling data useful to researchers conducting annual surveys of white pine health. Forest Watch currently includes over 200 schools across New England. The Consortium for Atlantic Regional Assessment (CARA) program will introduce Forest Watch in the Adirondack region.
Forest Watch students participate annually in three types of activities: 1) forest stand assessment, 2) laboratory-based assessment of ozone damage symptoms, and 3) image processing of satellite data for their area. Students also collect white pine branch samples which to be sent to UNH for analysis of needle chlorophyll content with a reflectance spectrometer. Each activity is designed to provide quantitative and meaningful data. Initiated in 1991, Forest Watch results have documented the negative impact that elevated levels of ozone have on needle chlorophyll levels and on annual growth, as well as the impact that physical climate (T, ppt) has on chemical climate (ozone levels). We expect similar findings for the Adirondack region.
The Adirondack Park Agency (APA) is actively engaged in stakeholder education of visitors to the Park. Past efforts centered on acid rain effects on forests and on the vitality of mountain lakes, as well as on the quality of life of visitors and residents alike. Growing public awareness of climate change issues has led the APA to consider ways to inform the public about potential impacts of a changing and variable climate to the region. The Forest Watch Program will be used as a tool to build awareness of the impacts of current climate to the region, and to reinforce recognition by K-12 students of climate change issues.
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| Climate Change, Institutional Restructuring and Adaptation within the Mexican Urban Water sector: Implications of Current Findings |
| Author: Romero Lankao, Patricia
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| Institutional Affiliation: Prof. Public Policies at the
Dep. of Politics and Culture
Metropolitan Autonomous University, Campus Xochimilco
C.P. 16800, Mexico City |
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| Panel Title: Neoliberal Transitions in the Water Sector: Regional Implications |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Several scholars have studied the impacts and implications of two sets of global processes (climate variability and change, neo-liberal institutional restructuring) on the adaptation capacity of Mexican farmers, and urban dwellers. At a regional scale (e.g. basins, hydro-common regions), others have studied urban-rural water linkages, and assessed the environmental and socioeconomic impacts of water systems on the urban areas and on the regions providing fresh or receiving untreated sewage waters. These studies will be reviewed with a twofold goal, namely a) to sketch a proposal for the assessment of the adaptation capacity of water users in Central Mexico to climate variability, climate change and neoliberal restructuring, and of the ways in which water users respond to such processes (agency); and b) to discuss what clues or directions these studies offer regarding the understanding of the complex and dynamic interplays among these global, regional and local-scale phenomena, which are traditionally studied as discrete and separate processes. |
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| Managing Time and Space: Risk Diversifications Due to Climate Variability among Farmers of the Sudan-Sahel Region (Burkina Faso). |
| Author: Roncoli, Carla M.
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| Co-Author(s): Gerrit Hoogemboom, Keith Ingram, Christine Jost, Paul Kirshen, Frederic Ouattara, Moussa Sanon, Judith Sanfo, Leopold Some, Pascal Yaka |
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| Institutional Affiliation: University of Georgia |
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| Panel Title: Rural Livelihoods and Climate Variability: Insights for Adaptation to Longer Term Change |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| The duration and frequency of drought in the Sahel-Sudan region of West Africa has increased during the last 30 years. There is a high likelihood that droughts will be more severe due to greater climate variability as well as increased crop water requirements under higher temperature conditions. Rural households in this region depend on rainfall for most of their livelihood and seek to cope with climate variability by means of various risk management strategies. This paper reports on research carried out by the Climate Forecasting and Agricultural Resources project in three agro-climatic zones of Burkina Faso. The goal of our research is to determine how farmers and herders respond to rainfall variability and, in particular, what is the potential role of seasonal rainfall forecasts in reducing the vulnerability of production and livelihood systems. We have found that producers have adapted to climate variability by diversifying risks and opportunities over time and space. Strategies include choice of seed varieties with different duration of growth cycle, choice of different fields and soil types, expansion or reduction of area with various crops, staggered planting dates, timing and direction of transhumance or animal sales, etc. The feasibility and performance of these strategies, however, is affected by the repertoire of resources and information available to different households in the three sites and by the cadre of institutional arrangements such strategies are embedded in. Initial results show that seasonal rainfall forecasts can contribute to improving the adaptive capacity of rural producers, but information dissemination must be integrated into a consistent policy approach that enables producers to take advantage of a wide range of options, including technologies developed by research and those generated by farmers' own experiences and exchanges. |
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| Climate Change and the Urban Heat Island Effect |
| Author: Rosenzweig, Cynthia
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| Co-Author(s): William D. Solecki |
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| Institutional Affiliation: NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studes |
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| Panel Title: Urban Dimensions of Climate Change and Public Health |
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| Paper Link: docs/Rosenzweig.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| In this paper, the UHI was examined under current and projected climate conditions in urban New Jersey using a combination of spatial analysis of remotely-sensed thermal data and statistical analysis of meteorological station data collected by six urban and suburban stations. The Urban Heat Island effect (UHI) causes an increase in annual and diurnal temperatures in urban areas as compared to surrounding lower density suburban and rural areas. The UHI can have serious consequences for the quality of life of local and regional residents including direct and indirect health impacts via increased heat stress and respiratory illnesses associated with higher concentrations of primary and secondary air pollutants, respectively, and increased summer time air-conditioning costs and associated elevated electricity demands.
The results indicate that the intensity and extent of the UHI in urban New Jersey has grown in recent decades and with climate change and further suburban sprawl will continue to grow in future decades. The results indicate that the climate of the urban areas overall has been warming by 0.2°C per decade (years 1950-1999) while the highly urbanized areas within the region, particularly in the core urban areas, have been warming at even faster rate. The difference between urban and suburban minimum temperatures has increased by 0.21°C per decade over the past five decades. Surface temperatures can be up to 12°C higher in the urban core than in immediate surrounding suburban areas, and air temperatures in the City can be up to 7°C higher under optimal meteorological conditions. Moreover, climate models (Hadley Centre, Canadian Climate Centre, and GISS) predict that regional temperatures will warm an additional 0.1 to 0.4 degrees Celsius per decade over the next 50 years further affecting the UHI. Seasonal reduction in wind speed associated with climate change also could exacerbate the UHI as well. |
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| Research on current and future transitions and system innovations |
| Author: Rotmans, Jan
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| Institutional Affiliation: International Centre for Integrative Studies (ICIS), Maastricht University |
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| Panel Title: The Dutch Knowledge-Network on System Innovations (KSI): Shaping the Sustainability Arena? |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| This presentation will address the research line that is centered around the following research questions: how can we recognise in advance or in an early stage in which phase of a transition we are? And how can we monitor the different phases of a transition? Is there a generic pattern to be found in the driving forces of the various past and current transitions and system innovations? Is the co-evolution between economic, technological, institutional and social-cultural factors generic by nature, or unfolds a transition-specific pattern? Can we build a generic model for describing and explaining the above transition dynamics? |
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| Promoting Renewable Electricity in the European Union: Between Subsidiarity and Harmonisation |
| Author: Rowlands, Ian
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| Institutional Affiliation: Faculty of Environmental Studies
University of Waterloo |
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| Panel Title: Multilevel Environmental Governance |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| The world's present means of generating electricity are unsustainable. Large, centralised power systems dominated by fossil-fuel, nuclear and hydroelectric generators have given rise to a range of environmental, social and economic problems. It is now widely accepted that a new approach to electricity supply ' one based upon renewable sources of energy like solar and wind power ' is needed.
It is also widely accepted, however, that policy changes are needed to support this transition. A question that immediately arises is: At which jurisdictional level should such policies be pursued?
On the one hand, an international approach (countries acting together in concert) might increase confidence in the investment climate and allow renewable energy producers to exploit economies of scale in production. It might also provide consumers, across a large area, with a simple and singular definition for renewable electricity. This may lead to greater public trust and confidence in renewable electricity.
On the other hand, a local approach (communities acting individually) might provide the flexibility necessary to increase the sustainability of individual electricity supply systems. By acknowledging, and responding to, regional differences in the resource content of electricity systems, in resource endowments and in health and environmental challenges, communities could identify their own path for sustainability.
This question is explored with respect to the recent experience of the European Union. During the 1990s, a number of national-level support schemes were introduced in Europe. These included 'feed-in tariff schemes' in Denmark and Germany and 'tendering systems' in France and the United Kingdom. Such local approaches, however, ran up against, during the late 1990s, the European Commission's desires to introduce a harmonised system of tradeable certificates. In the end, the European Union Directive that was agreed (in 2001) identified the value of a harmonised approach, but nevertheless still respected individual member states' wishes to adopt distinct approaches.
The paper investigates the discussions associated with the development of this Directive. Thus, the analysis in this paper helps to enrich the debate surrounding the appropriate jurisdictional level at which renewable electricity should be supported.
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| An Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation in Watershed Areas and Communities in Southeast Asia (AIACC AS21) |
| Author: Roy, Sheila Sophia N.
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| Co-Author(s): Rodel D. Lasco |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Environmental Forestry Programme, College of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of the Philippines Los Baños |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| The Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the IPCC states that the rise in concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHG) alters the radiative balance of the Earth's atmospheric system, which would likely bring changes to the climate conditions in the Asian Region (IPCC Working Group II, 2001). Moreover, climate scenario models have predicted an enhanced hydrological cycle and increase in area-averaged annual mean rainfall in Asia affecting the region's natural resources. Since developing countries have limited resources and capacity to adapt to the effects of climate change, they would be the most vulnerable to climate change.
In spite of these predicted impacts of climate change on natural and human resources, there still exists a knowledge gap on integrated assessments of climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation. The absence of peer-reviewed literature from the SE Asian region, particularly on the impacts of climate change in watershed areas and communities, clearly indicates the limited experience and knowledge of climate change scientists in countries like the Philippines and Indonesia.
Funded by GEF and co-executed by START, the study seeks to fill the knowledge gap on the impacts of climate change on watershed areas and communities, as well as further develop the capacity of local scientists to be able to contribute relevant information on this matter. This study uses models that could predict changes in climate, land use and forest cover, and water resources. In particular, it presents the initial results of the VIC-SEABASINS Model showing the effect of climate extremes on runoff, baseflow, evaporation and streamflow in the watershed. It also shows the assessment of vulnerability and adaptation of local communities to climate change. Results of the study could determine appropriate strategies in coping with the adverse impacts of climate change and provide reliable foundation for policy makers in decision-making processes.
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| Poverty livelihood and biodiversity conservation nexus: an analysis of the Equator Initiative's award recipients |
| Author: Rubian, Renata
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| Co-Author(s): Julie Crowley |
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| Institutional Affiliation: McGill University and Universite du Quebec a Montreal (UQAM) |
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| Panel Title: Population, Poverty and the Environment: Case Studies from Around the World |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| The reemergence of the debate on poverty-biodiversity nexus can be partially attributed to the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) that was able to attract some attention to the connection between the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) that advocates sustainable use, conservation of biological resources and benefit-sharing as its main objectives.
To reflect the importance of this issue, the theme of the next international day on biological diversity, on 22 May, has been changed to "biodiversity and poverty alleviation".
But in what basis is poverty and conservation of biological resources established? Is poverty to blame for rampant environmental degradation? The development literature has recognized that a simplistic approach of the "downward spiral" theory of mutually reinforcing poverty and environmental loss has failed to sustain (Brown and Pearce 1994; Forsyth, Leach and Scoones 1998). Although poverty may lead to greater pressure on the exploitation of natural resources, sustainable practices within communities holding limited resources can be identified worldwide.
This paper seeks to explore the relationships between poverty alleviation and biodiversity conservation. Specifically it analyses the lessons learned by four of the award recipients of the Equator Initiative in 2002, which rewards projects that promote local livelihoods without compromising the integrity of the natural environment. The cases examined are: 1) the Green Life Association of Amazonia (AVIVE), Brazil; 2) the Uma Bawang Resident's Association (UBRA), Malaysia; 3) the Fiji Locally-Managed Marine Area Network, Fiji; and 4) the Suledo Forest Community, Tanzania.
This paper attempts to address why these local communities decided to mobilize to promote biodiversity conservation. What affects organization and collective action for managing biological resources in the context of public goods? The constraints associated with effective community organization in different ecosystems, marine or forests, are taken into consideration.
As rural communities' livelihood is mainly based on natural resources, incentives must be provided to lessen conservation's transaction costs. The nature of incentives offered to these communities, such as economic, socio-cultural, political and environmental, is also considered.
Finally, the paper looks into the impact of partnerships generated between local communities and various stakeholders. |
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| Plenary Presenter: Poverty Environment and Development |
| Author: Runnalls, David
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| Institutional Affiliation: null |
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| Panel Title: Plenary: Poverty, Environment and Development |
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| Paper Link: docs/Runnalls_plenary.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| No abstract available. |
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| Modeling Vulnerability of Coastal Communities to Hurricane Storm Surge After Sea-Level Rise: A Case Study of Hampton Roads, Virginia |
| Author: Rygel, Lisa
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| Institutional Affiliation: Consortium for Atlantic Regional Assessment;
Department of Geography, the Pennsylvania State University |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| The United States Global Change Research Program has estimated that climatic change could increase sea-level by one to three feet over the twenty-first century. Hampton Roads in Norfolk, Virginia is being used as a case study to understand how sea-level rise will likely increase the vulnerability of people and infrastructure to hurricane storm surge flooding. The results are intended to aid local authorities when they make development decisions for coastal communities. This study uses the SLOSH (Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes) model and a GIS-based methodology to identify areas at risk of inundation from hurricanes of differing intensities and to determine how patterns of at-risk locations could change under three alternative sea-level rise scenarios. Land uses and socioeconomic characteristics in at-risk areas are examined in a vulnerability assessment. Even if hurricane frequency and intensity remain unchanged, the results show how sea-level rise will increase the number of people, properties, and critical facilities vulnerable to storm surge flooding. |
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| Politics and Discourse: the Making of Low-Income Housing in Egypt |
| Author: Saad Shalaby, Aboul-Fetouh
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| Institutional Affiliation: Cairo University,
Faculty of Urban and regional Planning |
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| Panel Title: The Interactions between Global Environmental Change and Urban Processes (Session 2) |
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| Paper Link: docs/shalaby.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| This paper considers the complex web of societal forces / processes which shapes urban areas and hence decides the nature and the outcome of the bilateral relationship between urban areas and the environment. An improvement in this two-way relationship is firmly tied up with an understanding of this complex societal web.
Because of the complexity of this web, this paper addresses only one aspect of it viz: the way in which discourse on urban issues is developed in Egypt. It is this discourse that directly stands behind the current urban practices and hence the mutual relationship between urban areas and the environment. Specifically, the paper focuses on housing of low-income, who are most vulnerable to global environmental change. It examines the development of the discourse and low-income housing with higher education from which planners and architects ' the main shapers of the (formal) built environment- graduate.
Three influential academic institutions were searched in an attempt to identify the current housing discourse and more importantly its shaping forces. Multiple research methods were utilized, including structured questionnaires with students, semi-structures interviews with staff, and primary and secondary documentary data sources.
Based on the analysis of data collected, the paper argues that the current housing discourse mainly promotes ill-fitted modern ideas for the development of housing in Egypt's harsh desert environment, and hardly considers sustainability and traditional-related approaches, although both paradoxically are advocated by academics. The paper contends that the current housing discourse is mainly the outcome, even if it is indirect, of a socio-political process where an authoritarian government is ruling overlooked masses. This process brings into being an atmosphere in which academics resort to teaching these unsustainable modern ideas. The paper concludes that unless a change is brought to the political structure of society, a transition to sustainability is still remote.
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| The role of Eco-Labelling in enhancing sustainable consumption ' Theoretical considerations and empirical evidence from the food, electricity and textile sectors |
| Author: Sammer, Katharina
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| Co-Author(s): Rolf Wüstenhagen, Rita Pant |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Institute for Economy and the Environment (IWÖ-HSG), University of St. Gallen |
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| Panel Title: Consumption and Environment |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Labelling can be a convenient strategy and instrument for sustainable consumption. The problem about sustainable products is that attributes of sustainability cannot be verified by the consumer. Marketers may exploit the situation of asymmetric information and sell low-quality products while pretending to offer high-quality ones. Hence consumers are generally sceptical of marketers' claims concerning credence attributes of products. Economic theory suggests that mandatory labeling requirements are best suited to alleviating problems of asymmetric information. Even if labels are a possible solution to the problem of asymmetric information, the success of a label respectively the commercialisation of sustainable products at a specific market is not ensured. In this paper the success factors for a sustainablity label will be figured out. One of these factors for success, the costs and benefits of consumers and businesses of an sustainability label will be analysed in detail with three empirical cases in Switzerland, the organic food label 'Bio-Knospe', the green electricity label 'Naturemade star', and the Max Havelaar label. While the two first mentioned labels are mainly aiming at environmental quality standards, the Max Havelaar Foundation (Fair Trade) plans to implement a more comprehensive sustainability label for textiles and clothes, including social aspects. While all labels are focussing on Switzerland, implications for other countries and potential harmonisation within Europe will be taken into account. |
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| Social and urban vulnerability to climate variability in Tijuana, Mexico. |
| Author: Sanchez, Roberto
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| Co-Author(s): Nora Bringas, Francisco Lares, Teresa Cavazos |
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| Institutional Affiliation: University of California, Santa Cruz,
Department of Environmental Studies |
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| Panel Title: The Interactions between Global Environmental Change and Urban Processes (Session 1) |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| The increasing number and magnitude of climate related disasters in urban areas illustrate the urgent need to improve the use of climate forecast and vulnerability analysis in their prevention. The city of Tijuana at the U.S.-Mexico border is a good example of this vulnerability. Floods and landslides during the 1992-1993 El Niño killed 36 people in Tijuana. Damage was so intense that large parts of the city were paralyzed for two weeks. Early preparation during the 1997-1998 El Niño helped reduced the damage in Tijuana, but still 14 people died as consequence of floods in early 1998. This paper studies the vulnerability of Tijuana to climate related disasters. The project documents urban growth in Tijuana between 1972 and 2000 by type of urbanization and its modification of the landscape. It identifies hazardous areas (floods and landslides) and the number of people living in them. The project also created a data base of climate related disasters during the last 32 years and it analyzed climatic variability in Tijuana focusing on ENSO and extreme precipitation.
The results of the project show a dramatic modification of the landscape by urban and population growth in Tijuana during the last 30 years. The saturation of low and flat areas has pushed urban growth to hazardous zones. Slums and areas of incomplete urbanization occupy many of them. However, vulnerability is associated with urban marginality but not necessarily with poverty in Tijuana. Deficiencies in urban planning, fast urban growth and incomplete urbanization make middle income groups also vulnerable to the negative consequences of climatic extreme events. The paper highlights the importance of socioeconomic and geopolitical processes (a fast industrialization process via the relocation of transnational corporations) behind fast urban growth in Tijuana. Ironically, the same factors that give rise to economic growth are also the driving forces behind its urban and social vulnerability to climatic extreme events. |
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| The Institutional Dimension of Vulnerability, Resilience, and Adaptation to Global Climate Change |
| Author: Sari, Agus
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| Institutional Affiliation: Pelangi |
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| Panel Title: Institutional Dimensions of Global Climate Change |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Even when Kyoto Protocol enters into force and is fully complied with
without any loopholes, climate change will only marginally slowed down.
In the mean time, devastating effects of current climatic variability
have taken a large toll on the well-being of the world's population,
notably the poor people in developing countries who are already
vulnerable. In the mean time, the institutional arrangements to
facilitate adaptation are yet to be designed. Kyoto Protocol has been
deemed inadequate in providing institutional framework for adaptation,
while a discussion towards an Adaptation Protocol under the Framework
Convention on Climate Change is ongoing.
This presentation will discuss the institutional design for adaptation
to climate change and variability, taking into account the current
institutional setting to cope with climate change and variability,
disasters, and compensation internationally, nationally, and locally,
and how to formalize these practices into an Adaptation Plan. The
presentation will also discuss how policies and decisions are made, who
the influencing actors are, and how they interact with each other.
Special attention will be given to the inclusiveness of the
decision-making process and to the involvement of the victims and
potential victims in making the decisions. And, given the severity and
the urgency of climate change, a plausibility of an Adaptation Protocol
will be discussed.
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| Harmonization of Forest Practices and Knowledge Brokerage via Participatory Communication |
| Author: Sarwer-Foner, Brian
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| Institutional Affiliation: McGill University:
Communications,
McGill School of Environment |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| The forest industry is a major force within the Quebec economy, while also being a major driver of habitat loss. There is a dis-connect between official policies, current practices, the needs of local communities and the ecological integrity of the land. This paper will explore participatory processes and the brokerage of knowledge about habitat destruction and biodiversity decline within civil society and local communities subsisting off the land in Quebec. Communications processes currently taking place between environmental NGOs and local communities will be identified. Discussion will follow on how to develop new systems of participatory communication to better link civil society actors with agents of industry and government decision makers, in order to minimize habitat destruction and maintain biodiversity by harmonizing competing land-use demands and practices of forest exploitation, the needs of local people, particularly in native communities, the greater human society and the interests of other stakeholders. |
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| Crop Simulation Using GIS-Based Crop Production Model |
| Author: Satya, Priya
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| Institutional Affiliation: RMSI |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Traditional decision support systems based on crop simulation models are normally site-specific. In policy formulation, however, spatial variability of crop production often need to be evaluated due to different soil conditions, weather conditions and agricultural practices within a target-region.
To address the spatial variability, a spatial model "Spatial-EPIC"(Satya et. al., 1998) was developed based on a crop simulation model EPIC (Williams, J. R. and A. N. Sharpely., 1989) (Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator). Since site-specific crop simulation models require point-based or fine resolution data, it is necessary to feed the fine resolution data at each grid-cell in order to "spatialize" crop simulation models. The author proposed a method to generate fine resolution data from coarse resolution data, which are usually available at regional or national level. In addition, since the original EPIC crop management practices are static in nature, a dynamic adaptation loop is added to evaluate the impacts of agricultural practice changes over temporal scale. Validation of the "Spatial-EPIC" was conducted at different spatial scales, i.e. National scale (approx. 50km cell-size) and regional scale (approx. 10km cell-size) in India because of available data, however a rough validation and comparison has also been conducted in couple of other Asian Countries including China and Bangladesh. Results showed that at both resolutions level crop yield varied significantly as a function of seasonal climatic variation, soil water holding characteristics and applied crop management strategies. Also, the study successfully demonstrated the scope of model applicability to evaluate an impacts of climate changes (largely global warming) over major cereal crops productivity at national level taking spatial variability into account.
To demonstrate one of the spatially distributed validation result over the country where the main growing zone of wheat are identifiable seeing the simulation results from figure1. Details of modeling and result of its application shall get presented during the conference.
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| Visualization of Energy Consumption in Schools - A New Way to Support Environmentally Friendly Behaviour |
| Author: Scheuermann, Dr. Michael
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| Co-Author(s): Hans Spada, Andrea Bender, Ines Froschmeier, Eva Staender, Simone Traber |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Department of Psychology
University of Freiburg, Germany |
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| Panel Title: Consumption and Environment |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Ecological awareness among the German population is high, but unfortunately in many cases it is not combined with sustainable behaviour. Accordingly schools (and the connected public authorities) are often confronted with one major problem: Although teachers make great efforts to convey ecological awareness and sustainable behaviour to their young students in the long run environmentally friendly behaviour was observed after such interventions only occasionally. So far the outcomes of the pedagogical and psychological concepts and initiatives were analysed in a number of studies, however the effects of a direct visualization of energy consumption in schools were not in the focus of the research.
The Ministry of Environment and Traffic of Baden-Württemberg, Germany, has set up a project to visualize energy consumption in a large number of schools via one of three different monitoring systems, that allow a direct view on the actual energy consumption and costs compared to those of the days, weeks, and months before. The comparative usability of the systems and particularly their effects on students' attitudes, intentions and behaviour were analysed in an extensive study run by the Department of Psychology at the University of Freiburg. Cross-over effects between the technical systems and the accompanying interventions in the classroom were also investigated.
This paper presents the outcome of this study, in which two large questionnaire samples (n=4600 altogether) with students from 27 schools in Baden-Württemberg, Germany, were investigated. The design and the analysis of the data was based on the 'theory of planned behavior' by Ajzen & Madden considering attitudes, normative beliefs, perceived behavioural control, intention, and behaviour. The data show a clear evidence for the assumed high awareness for environmental problems, as well as the intention to behave in a way that saves energy in schools. This outcome was matched by a significant reduction of energy costs for the involved schools. The presentation will draw conclusions on how technical systems can be highly efficient, when combined with pedagogical and psychological interventions.
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| Are Vulnerability and Adaptability Two Sides of the Same Coin? A Critical View of Climate Impacts Research |
| Author: Schjolden, Ane
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| Co-Author(s): Karen O'Brien, Siri Eriksen, Lynn P. Nygaard |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Cicero - Center for International Climate and Environmental research - Oslo |
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| Panel Title: Measuring Vulnerability and Adaptability: Conceptual and Methodological Challenges (GECHS) |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| In this paper we explore the relationship between vulnerability and adaptability, critically evaluating the implications of an emerging convergence of definitions for climate impact studies. Recently, there has been a growing tendency in the climate change literature to define vulnerability in terms of adaptive capacity, or adaptability, whereby vulnerability and adaptability are seen as antonyms (i.e. low adaptability is tantamount to high vulnerability, and vice versa). This subtle shift, we argue, marks a step backwards in efforts to understand the societal impacts of climate change. While it is widely recognized that the ability to respond to climate change does influence vulnerability, using adaptability to define vulnerability can easily divert the analysis to focus on identifiable 'fixes' that will minimize the residual impacts of climate change. Rather, the attention should be on understanding the underlying factors that shape vulnerability, such as unequal access to resources. In order to arrive at information about the proper adjustments to anticipated changes in climate, one first needs to explore the questions of what constitutes vulnerability (what is seen as potential adverse effects in a given society), who is vulnerable, and why. These are important elements that should be explicitly defined in vulnerability and adaptation studies. This has important implications for methods as well as for the types of policies that are formulated to adapt to climate change. We use the rather extreme examples of Norway and Mozambique to illustrate some key points about vulnerability and adaptability. By drawing upon these cases, we show that defining vulnerability in terms of adaptive capacity fails to capture the type of information and processes that are essential for understanding and addressing climate change impacts. |
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| Capital and water: a neo Austrian perspective of sustainable development |
| Author: Schlör, Holger
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| Institutional Affiliation: Research Centre Jülich, Programme Group System Analysis and Technology Evaluation |
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| Panel Title: Neoliberal Transitions in the Water Sector: Regional Implications |
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| Paper Link: docs/schlor.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| The Brundtland Commission defines sustainable development as a development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. Thus, the Brundtland Commission introduced a critical new dimension to our conception of economic development by raising the issue of sustainability of development. Nevertheless, the World Bank assumes that the global income will increase about 3 percent a year over the next 50 years. This implies a fourfold increase in world gross domestic product and a fivefold increase of CO2 Emissions under current world conditions. The world economy has then reached a scale that is at least big enough to threaten the welfare prospects of future generations. Therefore, the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) concluded that fundamental changes in the way societies produce and consume are indispensable for achieving global sustainable development. All countries should promote sustainable consumption and production patterns.The aim of this work is to apply the Neo-Austrian-Capital Theory (NACT) to the issues addressed by the WSSD. The Neo Austrian capital theory (NACT) is suitable for the investigation of structural change, because NACT considers especially the vertical time structure of economic processes. The explicit consideration of the temporal structure of production enables us to analysis the long-term effects of structural change.The classical NACT-Model will be modified to allow an analysis of the structural change from the current unsustainable economy to a sustainable new economy. Therefore, a renewable resource such as water will be included in the classical NACT-Model introducing an enlarged Neo-Austrian-Water-Capital-Model. Water is considered as a natural capital that provides critical functions for which substitutes do not exist. Universal access to basic water services is one of the most fundamental conditions of human development and therefore indispensable for a sustainable development. Not considering water as a critical capital good could lead to losses of welfare and we do not receive sufficient information about the conditions of the earth system. The model considered thereby the specific characteristics of water addressed by the EU Water Framework Directive. |
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| Environmental Economics and the interdisciplinary debate in the Human Dimension of Global Change: Challenges and Perspectives |
| Author: Schor, Tatiana
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| Institutional Affiliation: Programa de Pos-graduacao em Ciencia Ambiental - Universidade de Sao Paulo |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: docs/Schor.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| Statement of Problem
Brazil, due to its environmental richness and degradation, is a central location of the international debate concerning the environmental problematic. Environmental studies organized in interdisciplinary research programmes are recent and encounter themselves with theoretical and methodological crossroads. There has been no philosophical nor sociological study concerning the scientific production under what has been called 'environmental science' approach, and the solutions encountered by environmental economics has played an important role in determining the 'humanities' side of the interdisciplinary research.
Objective
The objective of this paper is to know if the interdisciplinary research that has the environment as object of analysis are grounding a specific theoretical-methodological framework. Economic theory has formulated a theoretical and methodological proposition in dealing with environmental problems: environmental economics. What is the role played by environmental economics in the elaboration of this new theoretical-methodological framework which would constitute an Environmental Science? And how is the environmental economics interacting and fomenting this new interdisciplinary research field? What has been done and what is new in the ecological economic theory in respect to the human dimension of global change?
In the Human Sciences, economic theory is ahead in the incorporation of the environmental questions into its theoretical and methodological approaches. How do these approaches taken by the environmental economics determine the pathways of this new autonomous science, the Environmental Science? How are the solutions encountered by the environmental economics research in global changes in the Amazon creating possibilities of interdisciplinary dialogue that help construct this new scientific approach?
Methodological Procedure
The methodological procedures of such study have a innovative approach: an interaction of sociology of economics with sociology of science which will determinate a specific philosophical approach. For such a research programme will be chosen as case study: The Experimento de Grande Escala da Biosfera-Atmosfera na Amazônia ' LBA (Large Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia). The research projects in this programme that have as methodological procedures the environmental economics approach will be analyzed and discussed. |
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| Research on historical transitions and system innovations |
| Author: Schot, Johan
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| Institutional Affiliation: Technical University Eindhoven |
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| Panel Title: The Dutch Knowledge-Network on System Innovations (KSI): Shaping the Sustainability Arena? |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| This presentation will introduce the research line of the research program that focuses on analysis of historical transitions- and transitional processes in order to further develop the transition-theory and provide databases of case studies on the subject. This research is focused on the following research questions, which are both theory-driven and practically oriented: what can we learn from historical transitions and system innovations, which are related to the current transitions, as object of research? To what extent where these historical transitions foreseen, expected and intentionally managed? What have been important success- and failure factors? Can we store this type of information in a historical database? The presentation will also shed light on the implementation of the research. |
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| Modelling the vulnerability of eco-social systems to global change: Human adaptive capacity to changes in ecosystem service provision |
| Author: Schröter, Dagmar
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| Co-Author(s): Lilibeth Acosta-Michlik, Richard J.T. Klein |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research |
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| Panel Title: Adaptive Capacity: Towards a Useful Theory |
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| Paper Link: docs/Schroeter.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| Within eco-social systems, ecosystems provide humans with services such as biodiversity, carbon sequestration, scenic beauty, food and fibre yield, timber production and fresh-water availability. To assess the vulnerability of these systems to global change requires: (1) projections of changes in the provision of ecosystem services and (2) projections of the ability of the human sectors relying on these services to adapt to such changes (i.e., adaptive capacity). In the EU-funded project Advanced Terrestrial Ecosystem Assessment and Modelling (ATEAM) we are developing an approach to combining these two elements within a modelling framework with the aim of producing vulnerability maps of Europe. All future projections within ATEAM are based on a set of multiple scenarios from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES).
To project the effects of changes in exposure to global change drivers (climatic, land use and nitrogen deposition changes) on the provision of ecosystem services we use a set of ecosystem models. In a stakeholder-guided process we produce spatially explicit projections of changes in ecosystem service provision, such as in the amount of carbon sequestered or the species richness of an area.
We use projections of socio-economic variables to develop spatially explicit and quantitative indicators of adaptive capacity, based on six determinants: power, flexibility, freedom, motivation, knowledge and urgency. For these determinants we explore the usefulness of indicators such as GDP, GDP per capita, human freedom index, age structure, literacy index and urbanisation. Fuzzy inference rules are then applied to aggregate the individual indicator values into one measure of adaptive capacity per spatial unit.
Combining the projections, the first reflecting the sensitivity of ecosystems, the second reflecting the adaptive capacity of the human sectors, we assess vulnerability of eco-social systems within Europe and support stakeholders in their decision-making processes. |
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| An Open Content Framework for the Production of Landcover Change Models |
| Author: Schweik, Charles
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| Co-Author(s): J. Morgan Grove, Tom P. Evans |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Department of Natural Resources Conservation and Center for Public Policy and Administration, University of Massachusetts, Amherst |
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| Panel Title: Designing Landcover Change Models to Meet Policy Needs |
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| Paper Link: docs/Schweik.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| A new approach to Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change (HDGC) research may be emerging, built upon the combination of the Internet technologies, Open Source (OS) programming and Open Content (OC) licensing. This approach may speed up the pace in the development of new scientific discoveries, and have important implications for increased participation by scientists in developing countries. The goal of this paper is to familiarize readers with the concepts of OS and OC and then provide a vision of how this approach might be applied to the production of Landuse/Landcover models.
In the first section of the paper we describe the concepts of OS and OC licensing and provide examples of each. We also provide justification as to why such approaches are likely to increase the speed in which new HDGC discoveries are made. We then turn to an examination of how OS programming projects are organized and managed based on analysis of current literature and some Internet-based projects. We highlight what is known about these projects, and also raise open questions that require further research. We conclude the paper with a vision of how these principles might be applied to the production of Landuse/Landcover models and what kinds of coordination infrastructure are required.
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| Global Challenges and Regional Responses in North America: U.S.-Canadian Regional Cooperation on Climate Change Action |
| Author: Selin, Henrik
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| Co-Author(s): Stacy VanDeveer |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Dept. of Urban Studies and Planning
77 Massachusetts Avenue, Room 9-316
Cambridge, MA 02139
USA |
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| Panel Title: Regional Cooperation and Climate Change |
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| Paper Link: docs/Selin.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| As global political efforts on climate change appear to stall, much of the innovative political action regarding climate change and sustainable development issues is taking place at regional and local levels. Further, any successful action on climate change ultimately depends on regional and local implementation and behavioral changes. One of the most comprehensive and ambitious regional effort to address climate change issues in North America has been developed under the auspices of the New England Governors' Conference (NEGC) and the five Eastern Canadian Provinces (CEP). The NEGC-CEP regional Climate Change Action Plan from 2001 outlines nine major goals and 34 specific recommendations for policy action for the participating US States and Canadian Provinces. Our paper assess ongoing attempts to implement the 2001 Climate Change Action Plan adopted by the six New England states and the five Canadian Eastern Provinces, and draws lessons about the accomplishments and limitations of regional cooperation and state/provincial level leadership initiatives on climate change and sustainable development. |
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| Modeling Acceptance of Ecosystem Service Payments in Decision-Support Systems using Software Agents |
| Author: Sengupta, Raja
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| Institutional Affiliation: Department of Geography, McGill University |
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| Panel Title: Economic and Social Aspects of Forest Management Systems |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| The modeling of spatially-explicit physical processes within computerized decision support systems is well-established, and is quite often used to support the decision-making process. However, behavior of individuals that could significantly impact the outcome of a simulation, and alter the decision-making environment, are not as well documented or integrated in such systems.
In the social sciences, there has been considerable work done on modeling humans as spatial 'agents' that impact the landscape in some fashion. Agents are software entities that share the following four properties (Woolridge and Jennings 1995): (a) autonomous behavior, (b) ability to sense their environment, (c) ability to act upon their environment, and (d) rationality. Software agents have been utilized to model a variety of individual and interactive human behavior, including visitation to national parks (Deadman and Gimblett 1994) and deforestation in Mexico (Manson 2000).
We propose that this form of modeling that simulates individual human behavior be included within decision support systems. Software agents could be utilized to study the human dimensions of global climate change, especially the co-production of ecosystem services and tradable goods by farmers in developing countries. A pertinent example is the possibility of introducing funding for carbon sequestration projects under a program initiated by the World Bank Group (http://www.biocarbonfund.org). However, success of this program will depend on acceptance by local farmers, which in turn will be impacted by personal characteristics of the individual (e.g., age and income), spatial characteristics of their land holdings (e.g., soil productivity and size), their social networks (e.g., adoption by neighbors) and external factors such as crop prices. These factors, and their influence on predicting the acceptance of an ecosystem service payment can be determined using both survey data as well as focus group meetings. The adoption of conservation cover payments designed to reduce soil erosion by farmers in the Cache River watershed in southern Illinois, USA, is used to demonstrate the utility of the proposed methodology for building agent-based models of human behavior.
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| A Tale of Two Deltas: Drivers and Outcomes of Urban Development. |
| Author: Seto, Karen
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| Institutional Affiliation: Stanford University
Institute for International Studies
Center for Environmental Science & Policy |
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| Panel Title: The Interactions between Global Environmental Change and Urban Processes (Session 1) |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Over the last several decades, urban growth in many Asian cities has been influenced by complex socioeconomic and political factors that interact across local, national, and international scales. Globalization, decentralization, rural to urban migration, and economic restructuring are just some of the drivers that have affected the physical form of urban growth. The interactions of these factors manifest themselves most significantly in the transformation of rural communities as they become absorbed into the urban economy. Often this involves the conversion of farmland to urban uses and the accompanying shift from agricultural to non-agricultural livelihoods. The spatial configuration of these changes will have significant impact on the sustainability of urban regions. Compact urban development can lead to improvements in human welfare and robust economic productivity while unrestricted growth can result in large infrastructure demands and environmental degradation. This paper evaluates the relationship between the drivers and the spatial patterns of urban development in two deltas: the Pearl River Delta, China, and the Red River Delta, Vietnam. With the support of satellite imagery and socioeconomic data, the paper describes the dynamics of urban change in the context of capital flows, governance systems, population structures, land markets, property rights, and regional environmental challenges. The paper compares and contrasts the roles of these factors and their significance in the creation of distinct patterns of urbanization. |
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| Man Made Impacts On Greenhouse Gases Emissions in India: Identification of Major Dimensions and Planning for Sustainable Development for a Healthy Future |
| Author: Shanmuganandan, Samarajalingam
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| Co-Author(s): B. Sukumar |
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| Institutional Affiliation: MADURAI KAMARAJ UNIVERSITY
PALKALAINAGAR, MADURAI-625021
TAMILNADU |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: docs/Shanmuganandan.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| India, the seventh largest country in the world and has a land frontier of 15,200 km and a coastline of 7,516 km. The countrywide mean maximum temperature has risen by 0.6 oC, and the mean minimum temperature has decreased by 0.1 oC. However, as the result from mean minimum temperature is not statistically significant, they concluded that most of the increases in mean surface air temperature over India is due to the increase in daytime temperature. The output from equilibrium general circulation model (GCM) experiments show that the temperature rise in Northern India would be higher than that in Southern India. The output from different GCM scenarios varies substantially, and the average change across India is predicted to be in the range of 2.3 oC to 4.8 oC. On the other hand, taking the possible cooling effect of sulfate aerosols into account. Ninety-eight per cent of the carbon dioxide emissions in India are accounted for by energy related activities. Of this, nearly biomass combustion and the balance contribute 48% by the combustion of fossil fuel. The present study attempts to analyze greenhouse gas emissions particularly with reference to carbon dioxide emissions and its impacts in global change scenario of Indian subcontinent in relation human dimensions such as landuse changes and various human activities in relation to energy consumption. The study has also made an attempt to identify the major dimensions that resulted in the greenhouse gases emissions and warming as a result of changing composition of the atmosphere both in rural and urban areas. The study also probed in to quantify the man made impacts with the help of factor analysis to explain the major dimensions and also with the help of the these dimensions to derive a conceptual framework to plan for a sustainable development for India and developing countries. The study was based on the secondary data collected at various levels including the case studies carried out extensively on the impact of greenhouse gases including CO2 on global climate change at all levels. |
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| Improving the Quality of Life in the Rural Areas of India by Incorporating People's Preferences: A Case Study |
| Author: Sharma, Neeraj
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| Co-Author(s): Vijay Laxmi Pande |
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| Institutional Affiliation: National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development, Regional Office, Lucknow |
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| Panel Title: Decentralization and Environmental Governance |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Cooking with unprocessed biomass fuels in poorly ventilated kitchens is associated with health risks and drudgery, in the whole fuel cycle - collection, transportation and combustion. Burning unprocessed biomass fuels emit pollutants like COx gases, RSPM, PAHs etc. that affect health adversely. 'Stepping up' on the energy ladder for more convenient and clean cooking fuels would lower these risks. Researches point that cost of switching to clean fuels like LPG would be prohibitive for many rural households. The role of rural financial institutions in promoting this change has not got much prominence.
In 2002, a bank in India (Avadh Gramin Bank) introduced a loan for an LPG connection and pressure cooker for village women. This credit product was designed on the demand of village women who were members of Self Help Groups promoted by the bank. Initially, the bank saw this as good business with assured recovery of loans. Women favored it as it assured them of better environment in their kitchens and for bankers it was a good social initiative. There is now a demand for this loan from men too and a demand from women for a similar loan for financing low cost toilets.
Pilot survey revealed people's willingness to pay for improving kitchen hygiene and save energy in the resource poor rural households. Out of 518 members of 36 SHGs, 105 had applied for loan under this scheme as soon as they came to know of it. Reasons for taking loan were (11% already owned the pressure cookers) (i) relief to eyes and lungs from smoke (ii) saving their and their children's time. Children now get more time for studies (iii) less trouble in protecting fuel (wood, twigs and cow dung cakes) from rains (iv) lower maintenance cost of cooking utensils.
Non adoption was due to (i) fear of safety ' 60% felt ill equipped to handle LPG appliances (ii) 80% citied reluctance of male family members in switching over (iii) 47% did not know what to do with cow-dung cakes (from homestead animals) and that they had mud houses (iv) 23% found loan servicing difficult.
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| The IPCC as Process: The Politicization of Science, The Scientization of Politics or Something in Between? |
| Author: Shaw, Alison
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| Institutional Affiliation: Sustainable Development Research Initiative (SDRI), University of British Columbia |
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| Panel Title: Global Politics of Carbon Emissions |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has evolved as an international scientific advisory body over the past decade. Increasing attention has been paid to the interface between the scientific assessments of the IPCC and their interaction and relevance to a global and heterogeneous policy audience. The formal and informal processes and protocols established in the summary for policymakers (SPM) and the synthesis report (SYR) provide a compelling arena to understand how interactions between scientific information and policy relevance can be negotiated in a manner that remains credible for the communities involved and legitimate in the broader social world. This paper will present an analysis of the negotiation of the science and policy communities in the SPM and SYR, paying particular attention to the differences in professional worlds; the instruments, materials, meanings, and rhetorics used in both, and the bi-directional transfer of this information between the two communities. This analysis will enrich future understandings of how interactions between scientists and policymakers, and the different knowledge contributions of both, can create more dynamic and meaningful forms of information especially with regard to environmental issues where the natural and social worlds intersect in very pronounced ways. |
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| Effect of the Stock of Human Capital on the Sustainability of Chinese Society with Economies in Transition |
| Author: shen, li
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| Institutional Affiliation: the institute of population research,peking university |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: docs/Shen.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| In the past two decades, China has witnessed rapidly economic growth. Coupled with economic development, there has been a growing stock of human capital in China with economies in transition in spite of the fact that it is comparatively lower than those of developed nations. Now the emerging issue is how China could balance realization of rapidly economic growth and the sustainability of society in near future, which seems to be very unclear for both policy-makers and scholars. This paper employs time series data to investigate the impacts of increasing stock of human capital (educational attainment, life expectancy, skill, etc) on the public awareness of the sustainable development in order to assess how the growing capacity in human and social capitals will affect the future sustainability of Chinese society at the process of social and economic transition, which is also of great use for other developing nations like China with huge population size. This paper first of all analyzes the linkage between educational attainment and public awareness of sustainable development and turns out that the increase of educational levels of the public could be the most significant factor for the goal of sustainable development in China at the 21st century. Then it studies the role of knowledge of science and technology in the recognition of sustainability and indicates that the development of science and technology will lead to the better harmony among economic growth, social development, and the protection of natural resource and environment. This paper next makes an approach to the effect of the experienced skill of labor force on the ideas of sustainability. Lastly, this paper proposed some policy frameworks in order to realize the goal of sustainable development in China by building up the growing stock of human capital. |
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| Reviewing Participatory Approaches in Global Change Research |
| Author: Siebenhuener, Bernd
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| Institutional Affiliation: Carl von Ossietzky Unversity Oldenburg
GELENA Research Group |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Research in the human dimensions of global environmental change has been particularly urged to involve societal actors and to open up the scientific discourse to a wider community of active citizens, municipalities, interest groups, industry, environmentalist groups and other users of knowledge. Approaches such as sustainability science, post-normal science or mode-2 science have repeatedly iterated this claim. Many projects in the field of global environmental change have addressed this challenge through the inclusion of participatory processes.
The participation of societal stakeholders has been employed for an ambitious bundle of objectives. It is regarded as a means for empowerment and education as well as for increasing legitimacy of scientific research. In addition, stakeholder participation should bring new and different types of knowledge to the table that so far have been left aside in scientific discourses even though it could prove crucial for the solution of virulent problems. In addition, proponents of participatory approaches in global change research claim that conflicts could be mediated and practical implementation and social learning will be facilitated.
Meanwhile, there are numerous examples of participatory approaches in global change research which allow for a first review of the experiences gathered so far. Have the ambitious targets been met or has participation in scientific research led to an unnecessary loss of scientific rigour and precision? The paper will give an account of these experiences on the basis of the four criteria participation, processes, products and processes of learning. It will analyse facilitators and hurdles in the different fields of application of these procedures and in the different participatory methods available. It could be shown, for instance, that the choice of participants remains biased excluding certain societal groups and that asymmetric communication structures can hardly be overcome. In addition, the practical outcomes of most projects have been rather limited. The paper concludes with an account of the lessons learned so far. They pertain to the most appropriate methods and research fields for participatory research efforts. In addition, some indication for ways to overcome persistent problems of these procedures will be deduced.
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| Globalizing the local and localizing the global: the links between global and local in environmental awareness and in support for international treaties |
| Author: Simoes, Solange
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| Co-Author(s): Paul Mohai and Steve Brechin |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Federal University of Minas Gerais/ Brazil and Institute for Social Research/ University of Michigan |
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| Panel Title: Global Politics of Carbon Emissions |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| This paper looks into the links between the global and local dimensions of environmental awareness and behavior and at how the national boundaries of global environmental issues shape public support for international environmental treaties.
This paper results from the authors' collaboration in the design of comparative surveys of the mass public in the cities of Belo Horizonte in Brazil, Beijing in China and Detroit in the USA. These city area studies aimed at further investigating the concept of 'environment', as perceived by the mass publics in such diverse social, economic and physical contexts.
The concept of 'environment' is investigated as a multidimensional concept, as the authors seek to, at first ,'disentangle', and, later, explore the connections between the local, national and global dimensions. A central focus is given to understanding the global implications of individual behavior and awareness of local, concrete environmental issues.
Rather than opposing developed versus developing, south versus north, or even city versus city, we develop a comparative approach by investigating the impact of socio-economic positions, race, general values orientation, and the physical and institutional context in the ways the local and the global dimensions are perceived and linked or kept separate by the mass publics in the three cities.
After exploring the ways the global and local are separated or connected in terms of contextualized individual perceptions and behaviors, we address the issue of support for international treaties to deal with 'domestic' issues with global environmental consequence - such as deforestation of the rain forest in Brazil, energy consumption in the US, and the increasing levels of consumption in China.
Last, we would like to point out that this paper and the city studies sought to advance our knowledge on issues brought up in the open meetings in Geneva, Shonnan Village and Rio de Janeiro. |
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| Scenarios of Human Driving Forces: The Relevance of Alternative Lifestyles |
| Author: Simon, Karl-Heinz
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| Institutional Affiliation: University of Kassel
Center for Environmental Systems Research |
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| Panel Title: Consumption and Environment |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| In numerous approaches to global change research projections on the development of human driving forces (economic development, consumption patterns) are providing an important source of information about future threats on the environment and resources availability. In most cases a rather "conservative" estimation of future trends in these forces is applied which seems to be compatible with present day views on predominant economic system and tendencies in lifestyle development.
In a research project on alternative lifestyles and economics we analyze the given scope of action when people want to organize their life in an alternative manner and show which relief potentials are inherent to such decisions. The focus of our study is on "intentional communities" where people live together, share devices and resources, and orient themselves at sufficiency and other sustainability measures. Eco-balances of their housing, mobility and food consumption can verify the differences to "normal" (e.g. small family) households and main stream consumption patterns.
In our opinion, that kind of analysis provides an important supplement to statistics-based scenario building on human driving forces. The worth of that additional material is not depending on whether this kind of lifestyle is a realistic description of how a certain percentage of the population will live in future but follows from its power to reveal development options and corridors. It is important to see that alternative paths of development are open to go, and in that context the reference to existing communities is helpful. With that reference objections claiming the utopistic character of such projects can be countered and the practicability as well as the advantages can be taken into consideration. Up to now, intentional communities seem to be concepts for developed countries only. However, strains of development in countries nowadays marked as underdeveloped show dynamics which seem to copy historical processes in "the North" (even if with much higher speed). Hence, the consideration of possible alternatives might be helpful to achieve better scenarios of future development also in that specific historical situation and can help to get over the so-called "affirmative bias" leading to a systematical veiling of divergent possible "futures". |
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| Water as Driving Force for Poverty Alleviation and Environment Security in India |
| Author: Singh, R. B.
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| Institutional Affiliation: Department of Geography, Delhi School of Economics, University of Delhi, Delhi-110007 |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| In India the poverty dominant regions tend to be in the climatic zones subject to water scarcity and water surplus problems as they can least afford alternative livelihood sources. In India about 525 million people are living below the $1/day per capita income level which is one of the highest in the world. Looking back 50 years or so, progress against poverty in India has been highly uneven over time and space. This has been attributed to various driving forces both biophysical and human. The spatial distribution of poverty in India shows wide disparities in the levels of poverty ratios in different parts of the country. The poorest states are some of the resource wise richest states of India, which are Orissa (47.15%), Bihar (42.6%), and Madhya Pradesh (37.43%). The states, which are having higher levels of groundwater development also, show lower levels of poverty. Punjab, which is having only 6.16% of its people under the poverty line and it, utilizes 98.34% of its groundwater resources. In India, poverty is directly related to overall agricultural productivity, which in turn is dependent upon water for irrigation. One of the foremost and crucial steps, which can be taken to control the water scarcity in a region, is community based water harvesting and watershed management. There are several initiatives at the community level to manage the water in states like Haryana (Sukhmajari Experience), Rajasthan (Tarun Bharat Sangh Experience), Maharashtra ( Reelaygaon Experience, Pani Panchayats) and Gujarat (SEVA, Irrigation Cooperatives) etc. Considering various successful stories, decentralisation in the management of water is being promoted utilizing the provisions made under the 73rd and 74th amendments to the Indian constitution. Such initiatives combining floods and drought management will be able to remove poverty together with environmental management in India in general and promoting the objectives of the International Freshwater Water Year-2003 in particular.
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| Harnessing potential of satellite data for visualizing and communicating dynamics of environmental changes |
| Author: Singh, Ashbindu
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| Co-Author(s): Mark Ernste, Gene Fosnight, Kim Giese |
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| Institutional Affiliation: United Nations Environment Programme |
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| Panel Title: Assessment of High-Risk Natural Disaster Hotspots |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Increasing concern over how human activities interact and influence the global environment have led to the initiation and formulation of a number of environment assessment programs, treaties and agreements which call for increased, systematic observation of earth systems. Generally speaking, there has been considerable work in assessment of environmental processes of change but relatively less attention to the documentation and quantification of rates of change. Such systematic observations require consistent, geographically referenced data that can be acquired over large areas repeatedly, and at reasonably low cost, using remote sensing technology.
This paper documents the experiences of identifying, collecting and analyzing results focusing on over 120 'hot spots' and 'bright spots' (i.e., locations that have undergone very rapid environmental change) by using state-of-the-art remote sensing and spatial data integration techniques to analyze and document changes over the last three decades. The hot spots cover major and diverse themes across the world, ranging from forest cover change in Rondonia (South America), urban sprawl in Las Vegas (North America), drying of Lake Chad (Africa), demise of wetlands in Mesopotamia (West Asia), emerging urban growth centers in Asia, to the ice shelf collapse in Polar regions.
These case studies depicts inter linkages between humans and their environment. The analysis provides scientific evidence of changes for the selected sites around the world. A strong emphasis on the visualization of environmental changes, documented with current and historical satellite images closely linked to ground photographs of the environment and the people who live in it, has the potential to create a personal connection to the changes.
The information provided will not only be useful in the context of selected locales, but will also underscore the intrinsic value of harnessing, visualizing and communicating technologies to gain a deeper understanding of the dynamics of environmental changes.
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| Energy sector reforms and the rural energy - will the rural poor benefit? |
| Author: Sinha, Shirish
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| Institutional Affiliation: Ph D Student, Technology and Development Group, University of Twente
Enschede, The Netherlands |
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| Panel Title: Environmentally Sustainable Energy Production |
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| Paper Link: docs/Sinha.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| The vast majority of the rural populace in India have only limited access to the services which commercial energy provides, and are therefore unable to leverage their efforts to generate surplus, to participate in markets and to develop beyond subsistence levels of economic life. A new paradigm for energy and development is clearly emerging, founded on the assumption that access to markets and market principles (through privatization and commercialization) will improve access to modern forms of energy services more effectively than the traditional approach of governments delivering these services. The objective of the paper based on the ongoing research study is to understand the potential and constraints of the paradigm of the reforms (liberalisation in the infrastructure sector) in the energy sector (petroleum fuels and electricity) in India and its linkages to provision (including improving) of access to modern energy services by rural low capacity end-users. The study aims to contribute to the ongoing debate, and the issues raised, in the context of rural energy development (with the focus on poverty alleviation) and reforms as a means for improving access to rural energy services. Most research to date has focussed on the electricity sector reforms, therefore, an innovative aspect of the study is that it has looked at not only electricity but also petroleum fuels, and thus the links to rural energy and development. At a practical level this paper aims to identify the conditions under which energy sector reforms will improve access to energy services for poor people and broad set of pathways for expanding access while reforming the sector based on empirical evidences from the case studies. |
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| Global Analysis of Urban Settlement Patterns from Night Lights |
| Author: Small, Christopher
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| Co-Author(s): Francesca Pozzi, Deborah Balk |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory
Columbia University |
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| Panel Title: Urban Dimensions of Climate Change and Public Health |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Human populations are not uniformly distributed on Earth's landmasses. Spatial variations in human population density span more than six orders of magnitude with 50% of the present population occupying less than 3% of the inhabited land area. Census estimates indicate that 37% of Earth's ice-free land area is populated at densities greater than 1 person/km2 while 20% of the 1990 population lived at densities greater than 1000 people/km2. Temporally stable lighted areas detectable from space suggest that urban areas account for less than 2% of inhabited land area. These 54,478 contiguous lighted areas provide an independent proxy for the spatial distribution of dense human settlements. Only 5% of these contiguous lights are larger than 20 km (circular equivalent diameter) but these ~2700 conurbations account for 50% of the total lighted area. A size-stratified analysis of these lighted settlements indicates distinct differences in the physical environments associated with the largest conurbations in comparison to smaller settlements. These differences suggest significantly different environmental consequences for different population growth and migration scenarios. This paper will quantify the spatial and size distributions of lighted human settlements worldwide and use these distributions to quantify some potential consequences of these population growth and migration scenarios. |
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| Plenary: Agriculture and Climate Change |
| Author: Smil, Vaclav
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| Institutional Affiliation: null |
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| Panel Title: Plenary: Agriculture and Climate Change |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| No abstract available. |
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| Plenary Commentator: Patterns of Development and Sustainability |
| Author: Smit, Barry
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| Institutional Affiliation: null |
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| Panel Title: Plenary: Patterns of Development and Sustainability |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| No abstract available. |
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| Climate Change and Agriculture: Food for Thought |
| Author: Smith, Donald L.
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| Institutional Affiliation: Plant Science Department
McGill University, Macdonald Campus |
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| Panel Title: Biophysical and Socioeconomic Aspects of the 2001 and 2002 Droughts in Canada |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Contributions: Agriculture is not a major producer of greenhouse gases (GHGs), at only 10% of Canada's total. Agriculture is a major producer of methane and nitrous oxide (21 and 310 times more effective at heat trapping than CO2, respectively), but a minor producer of CO2. Methane production comes from paddy rice production (none in Canada) and livestock. Nitrous oxide production is due to two soil processes: nitrification and denitrification.
Impacts: Increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will cause warmer, drier conditions. Increased temperature will accelerate the water cycle and increase equator-to-pole heat flux, leading to elevated global wind speeds. Temperature increases will be greater at higher latitudes (5 to 8 oC in Canadian agricultural areas over the next 100 years). The result will be longer growing seasons at higher latitudes, cessation of crop production in some already dry areas, introduction of crop production into some areas now too cold, reduction of glacier water contributions to rivers, changes in soil organic matter levels and increased wind erosion, increased El Nino frequency and strength, flooding of costal plains, migrations of pests, increased crop photosynthetic rates or water use efficiencies, and changes in crop quality.
Adaptations: Crop production can be adapted to climate change through management and genetics. Changed conditions will lead to more use of C4 crops; longer growing seasons, allowing production of longer season crops (leading to earlier seeding and more fertilizer and pesticide use); migration of winter cereals, double cropping, and agriculture in general to higher latitudes; expansion of no-till crop production; increased irrigation. Genetic manipulations will produce plants more tolerant of higher temperatures and drought. There will be a need for policies that encourage introduction of new crops and cropping practices.
Mitigation: New cropping systems and crops will reduce net increases in atmospheric GHG by emitting less nitrous oxide, increasing soil organic matter content (transferring C from atmospheric CO2 into soil carbon) and allowing production of bio-products such as bio-fuels (moving our economy from a fossil fuel to a crop-based, solar-energy footing). This could reduce Canada's annual GHG emissions by 20%. |
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| Who Weeps for the Trees?: Environmental Advocacy, Indigenous People and Collective Responsibility |
| Author: Soare, Richard
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| Co-Author(s): Claude Peloquin, David M. Green |
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| Institutional Affiliation: McGill & Concordia Universities, Dawson College Montreal, Canada |
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| Panel Title: Civil Society Movements and Environmental Change |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Environmental Advocacy, Indigenous People and Collective Responsibility
Against the backdrop of a world whose resources are overwrought by the demands of population growth, overconsumption and rapid industrialisation, arguments to protect and preserve the natural environment often seem underwhelming. To help redress this imbalance some environmentalists have pointed to the traditional lifestyle of indigenous people and have argued that if only the indigenous model were to be followed in the non-indigenous world then a more equitable balance between people and nature would be struck. Were the aim of this contraposition simply to highlight the failings of our world view and to provide us with a different perspective on environmental issues, this would be a useful goal. However, if the aim is to establish a prescriptive moral template against which our own environmentalism is measured, then caution ought to be exercised.
Using the ways of life of the Amazonian Kayapo and the northern Quebec Cree as benchmarks, we suggest that the desire for moral redress within our society will be satisfied only when answers are sought primarily from within our own way of life. First, the assumption that the members of one type of society are less susceptible to environmental lapses or inconsistencies than are the members of another type of society is naïve. Second, the belief that moral frameworks rooted in one way of life could be grafted meaningfully onto another way of life is presumptuous. Third, uncritical deference to other ways of life assumes pessimistically that our way of life is incapable of generating remedies to its own ills.
While there is much to be learnt from the traditional lifestyle of some indigenous people, we argue that the path to reconciling human and environmental constraints in our society lies in seeking solutions that are present within our circle of understanding. Furthermore, as individuals, as members of a global community and as beings aware of our place in the natural world, we must realise that defending our personal interests and the interests of the environment are one and the same thing. Once the synonymity of the two domains is acknowledged, securing their mutual welfare will be one step closer to attainment.
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| Access to Information and Public Participation in Climate Protection Activities in Poland |
| Author: Sobolewski, Miroslaw
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| Co-Author(s): Zbigniew M. Karaczun, Andrzej Kassenberg |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Parliamentary Bureau of Research,
Institute for Sustainable Development |
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| Panel Title: National Perceptions of Climate Change |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| The paper is based on the survey research focusing on access to information and public participation in climate protection activities in selected countries of Central and Eastern Europe. The survey has been developed within the partnership project "Capacity for Climate Protection in CEE co-ordinated by the REC (Regional Environmental Centre, Szentendre) and WRI (World Resources Institute, Washington). Research was based on a set of indicators developed by the group of environmental think-tanks active in the field of research and climate policy development.
Main aims of the project were to:
- develop and apply a set of "climate policy openness" indicators designed to measure performance of individual countries,
- identify gaps between commitments and actual performance of pubic authorities ,
- prepare recommendations as to the future development of public participation procedures.
The survey has been organized around the following issues:
- assessment of National Communications to UN FCCC and GHG inventories;
- availability and quality of facility level of information on GHG emission;
- public participation in development of policies relevant to climate change;
- public participation in Activities Implemented Jointly;
- efforts to build capacity of the public.
The paper gives some background information on climate policy (and institutions responsible for its execution in Poland) and its co-ordination with Aarhus Convention which aims at increasing public involvement in environmental decision-making. Then it provides analysis of the survey results, finally main findings and recommendations relevant to the project are summarised. |
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| Climate variability and climate change in a urban watershed region. |
| Author: Solecki, William
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| Co-Author(s): Cynthia Rosenzweig |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Monclair State University |
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| Panel Title: The Interactions between Global Environmental Change and Urban Processes (Session 1) |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| The objective of the study is to analyze the impacts of increased climate variability and change on an urban watershed region, and to test a series of hypotheses regarding the vulnerability and adaptive responses of local drinking water supply institutions. The study site is the heavily urbanized area of northern and central New Jersey, which lie adjacent to New York City. Potential hydrologic-related impacts including sea level rise, coastal and riverine flooding, droughtiness, and public health issues are the primary focus of the research. The time period of study is from 2000 to 2050.
The impact assessment, using Palmer Drought Severity Index and estimates of sea level rise associated with IPCC SRES A2 and B2 climate change scenarios, defines the potential for significant impact in the region with respect to increased hydrologic variability and the vulnerability of the regional water supply systems. The heightened potential for shifts in the periodicity of rainfall throughout the year presents a significant management issue for local water resource planners.
Survey and interviews were conducted with representatives of drinking water supply institutions and other institutions related to hydrologic system control, for example flood managers, to determine the capacity and capability of institutions to respond to this type of environmental change. The results indicate a highly varied level of vulnerability and adaptation potential throughout the region. Recommendations for increased intra- and inter-watershed water transfers are examined as possible mechanisms to increase regional resilience.
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| Climate Change Policy Instruments For Diffusion of Cleaner Technologies In the Small Scale Industries in India |
| Author: Soni, Preeti
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| Institutional Affiliation: Institute for Environmental Studies, Virje University (IVM,VU), Amsterdam and Institute for New Technologies (UNU-INTECH), Maastricht, The Netherlands |
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| Panel Title: National Perceptions of Climate Change |
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| Paper Link: docs/Soni.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| Since the Rio Earth Summit, efforts have been underway to find ways to facilitate sustainable development, with diffusion of cleaner technologies as one of the main focuses. Options include policy instruments such as those developed and debated at the international negotiations for addressing climate change. The international climate change instruments that are relevant for developing countries aim at facilitating sustainable development on two levels - the global (GHG mitigation) and the national (economic, social and local environmental benefits).
Small-scale industries (SSIs) have a direct relevance for national and local sustainable development. Many of these industries are energy-intensive, and use inefficient production processes. However, there are significant barriers to the diffusion of cleaner technologies in SSIs.
The paper aims to examine whether the climate change instruments can be a lever for addressing these barriers. Such that reductions in GHG emissions and local pollution are achieved alongside other benefits such as improvements in SSIs cost-effectiveness, competitiveness and working conditions. The focus is an analysis of the linkages between the climate change instruments and the SSI sector in India. And, from this, deducing the implications for the design and implementation of policy instruments for meeting global and national sustainable development objectives. The ultimate objective of the paper is to deepen the scientific understanding regarding the effectiveness of global regimes at local levels. |
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| Investigating alternatives to classification analyses: from models to landscapes |
| Author: Southworth, Jane
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| Institutional Affiliation: Department of Geography & Land Use and Environmental Change Institute (LUECI), University of Florida |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Current studies of land cover change and landscape fragmentation rely predominantly on land cover classifications derived from remotely sensed images. This research compares classification-based techniques (discrete data) to the use of vegetation indices (continuous data) for land cover modeling and analyses of landscape fragmentation for a study area in Western Honduras. The study area typifies many regions of tropical developing countries, where a complex interaction of social and environmental factors have given rise to dynamic mosaics of patches of reforestation and deforestation. Understanding the complex human dimensions of land use and land cover change in these parts of the world continues to present a challenge for researchers.
The land cover modeling analysis compares two models using different formulations for the dependent variable: i) a continuous analysis using a tobit model regressing the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), with non-forest values truncated at 0, on the variables elevation, slope, distance from roads and distance from the nearest market, and ii) a discrete analysis using a probit model with threshold NDVI coverages (representing forest and nonforest). To examine the patterns of landscape fragmentation, a discrete analysis of a forest/nonforest classification using the software FRAGSTATS is compared to a continuous NDVI-based analysis using the local indicator of spatial association (LISA) statistic. Because the tobit formulation included variation in the dependent variable for forested areas, greater information was retained regarding the subtle relationships among the independent variables and land cover. The LISA statistic, using the NDVI coverages as input, were helpful in interpretation of the data and its spatial arrangement in the landscape, indicating that the LISA was a good complement to the FRAGSTATS analysis. While there is increasing awareness of the need for using continuous data for land cover modeling and fragmentation, this area remains little explored. The research presented provides insights for additional future applications utilizing continuous data analyses.
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| Formation of Sustainable Science and education in developing countries |
| Author: Srinivas, Hari
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| Institutional Affiliation: United Nations Environment Programme |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Environmental Education (EE) is a process in which individuals gain awareness of their environment and acquire knowledge, skills, values, experiences, and also the determination, which will enable them to act - individually and collectively - to solve present and future environmental problems. EE is a complex process, covering not just events, but a strong underlying approach to society building as a whole. EE provides people with the awareness needed to build partnerships, understand what is happening around them, develop participatory approaches to planning, and ensure future markets for economic activities.
Environmental education is a learning process that increases people's knowledge and awareness about the environment and associated challenges, develops the necessary skills and expertise to address the challenges, and fosters attitudes, motivations, and commitments to make informed decisions and take responsible action.
Underlying this is the need for a sound sustainable science base that will guide environmental education. The paper will specifically look at this issue from the perspective of developing countries. It will look at the issues of governance, education and technology within a larger sustainability context. |
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| Plenary Presenter: Governance of Natural Resource Issues |
| Author: Srivastava, Leena
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| Institutional Affiliation: null |
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| Panel Title: Plenary: Governance of Natural Resource Issues |
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| Paper Link: docs/Srivastava_plenary.pdf |
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| No abstract available. |
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| Transformation of Energy Systems in South Asia |
| Author: Srivastava, Leena
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| Institutional Affiliation: TERI |
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| Panel Title: Industrial Transformation: Taking Stock of Regional Approaches (IHDP IT Session 4) |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Nearly half of the two billion people without access to energy in the world live in the South Asian region. As with other parts of the world, the South Asian region is in the process of instituting major reforms in its energy sector with a view to attracting investments, enhancing output and increasing access to a much larger set of consumers. There also exists a significant potential for trade in energy that can help transform the energy, environment and economic scenario in the region. This presentation would address itself to:
· The major reform initiatives across energy sectors in the region
· Accompanying institutional changes
· Challenges to reform
· Barriers to the reform agenda
· Potential for energy trade in the region
· Barriers to a higher level of trade in energy |
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| Industry and Government Strategies Related to Technical Uncertainty in Environmental Regulation: Pollution from Automobiles |
| Author: Stephens, Jennie
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| Institutional Affiliation: Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University |
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| Panel Title: Policy-Technology Interactions in Mitigating the Environmental Burden of Human Activities |
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| Paper Link: docs/Stephens.pdf |
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| Established industries have an inherent resistance to changing their processes and products, so when faced with potential regulated changes to reduce environmental impacts, resistance is strong and often based upon technical arguments drawn from scientific uncertainty. Detailed examination of the strategic use of technical uncertainty in the U.S. auto industry's resistance to emissions reduction regulation and the governments efforts to assess technical feasibility offers insight into the relative effectiveness of different industry and government approaches to dealing with the technical information in regulations for environmental improvement. The history of the auto industry's attempts to delay development and implementation of emission reduction technologies must be understood in the context of an industry-wide, self-imposed disincentive to innovate by eliminating competition among individual firms in the 1950s and 1960s and a subsequent prohibition on collaboration following the settlement by consent decree of the 1969 antitrust civil alleging 16 years of industry conspiracy to prevent development of pollution control technology. Responding to the government's aggressive regulatory attempt in the 1970 Clean Air Act (CAA) amendments to accelerate the development of pollution control devices, firms intensified their research efforts while simultaneously resisting with claims of technical uncertainty that the standards could not be met in the designated time. While the auto manufacturers took every opportunity to weaken and delay the standards throughout the 1970s, a third party of independent suppliers of catalytic converters (the primary technology considered capable of meeting the standards), provided manufacturer-conflicting testimony to regulators about the feasibility of implementing the new technology. This detailed empirical analysis of one major industry's use of technical uncertainty and claims of unfeasibility to resist regulatory change along with the regulator's responses provides instructive examples of strategic government-industry interactions in the development and implementation of environmental regulations. |
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| Food innovation & environmental risks - argumentative discourse in social networks |
| Author: Steward, Fred
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| Institutional Affiliation: BRESE (Brunel Research on Enterprise, Sustainability & Ethics), Brunel University, Uxbridge, West London, UB8 3PH |
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| Panel Title: The Precautionary Principal and Global Environmental Change: Taking Stock and Moving Forward |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Results are presented of a European research project (Steward et al 2000) exploring the relationship between innovation in the food sector and environmental risk. The study was undertaken under the European Commission programme on social and economic aspects of the environment and involved partners and studies in the UK, France, Denmark & Spain. Innovations are investigated at different points in the food chain - sea-fishing (satellite monitoring), livestock farming (mbm animal feed), plant agriculture (gm crops), & food processing (flexible pvc packaging). In each case there was an associated controversy over environmental risk - overfishing, mad cow disease, gene transfer & endocrine disruptors. Social network analysis is used to investigate the different actors engaged in the decisions on technological innovation, on the one hand, and controversies over environmental risk, on the other. Argumentative discourse analysis is used to investigate the communication between actors in these networks.
The studies reveals significant differences in network configuration and discourse style between the domains of technological innovation and environmental risk. The nature and degree of mediation between these networks is shaped by features arising from both national context and subsector characteristics. These findings are discussed with regard to the possibilities of improving the social management at an international level of the environmental risks of the food sector overall. Conclusions are drawn regarding future policy interventions to facilitate a more explicit relationship between the process of decisions on innovation and those on environmental risk.
Steward, Fred et al (2000) Environmental networks and societal management of technological innovation in the food sector (EC DGXII Environment programme) Project coordinator: Fred Steward, UK. Collaborators: Clara Garcia, University of Carlos III, Madrid (Spain), Annegrethe Hansen, the Danish Technical University, Copenhagen (Denmark), Pierre-Benoit Joly, the Socio-Economic research centre of the National Agricultural research institute (SERD/INRA), Grenoble (France), Pete Bailey, the Stockholm Environment Institute (Sweden) and Steven Yearley, the Department of Sociology, University of York (UK).
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| Post-Kyoto Regime : Alternative Scenarios |
| Author: Sugiyama, Taishi
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| Institutional Affiliation: Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry
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| Panel Title: Institutional Dimensions of Global Climate Change |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Kyoto Protocol is about to enter into force, pending Russian ratification. Kyoto Protocol itself had set the timetable of international negotiation on the 2nd Commitment period for 2005 to 2007. In prior to this, negotiators already began considering the coming climate regime beyond the First Commitment Period (2008-2012), for which Parties have not yet agreed upon numeric targets. Given that the USA opt-put from the Protocol, there are many alternative regime designs on the tables ' and it is not likely simple renegotiation of the numeric targets will tale place. There is a new climate regime emerging. The paper discusses the issues and options of coming climate regime (such as non-binding targets, technology cooperation agreement, etc), describe several alternative scenarios, and analyze fit, interplay, and scale dimension of the alternative regimes. |
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| The assessment of rapid landuse change detection due to the sustainability of fisheries sector |
| Author: Sutrisno, Dewayany
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| Institutional Affiliation: National coordination agency for survey and mapping |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: docs/sutrisno.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| Human driver in using the environment space and resources, has become a pressured to the accumulative process of changing within the environment. This may result in changes to the earth system which in turn will impact on the future human use of environmental space and resources. This problems seem more existed in the developing country such as Indonesia. Delta Mahakam in East Kalimantan province, is a good example for this cases. This, because the area has been rapidly degraded related to the global shrimp industry, and so does the global climatic change. The global market demand of the shrimps industry and the need of local government to increase regional revenue have to be responsible for the rapid land clearing processes of mangrove ecosystem within the delta. Moreover, the climatic change, supported by traditional shifting cultivation and illegal timber industry, may cause the forest fire within the dry season which resulted in the rapid erosion and sedimentation processes. Both cases, climatic change and mangrove conversion, are responsible for the degradation of the coastal environment productivity, such as natural fisheries availability. Therefore, a simulation model supported by remote sensing and GIS technology have to be develop for the study, in order to spatially visualized the environmental changes that affected the future human welfare. The model were develop based on the pressure-state-impact-respond (PSIR) framework, which relate the ecological and socio-economic study in a cause effect relationship approach. Change detection and the assessment of biomass in respect to the natural fisheries stock are part of the ecological study. While environmental economic valuation and cost-benefit analysis are part of the socio-economic study. The simulation may give support to the regional government policy in managing the delta environment in an sustainable perspective. (dewayani@bakosurtanal.go.id) |
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| Rural Vulnerability to Global Change: The Role of Social Networks |
| Author: Sygna, Linda
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| Co-Author(s): W. Neil Adger |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Center for International Climate and Environmental Research - Oslo |
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| Panel Title: Adapting to Global Change: The Role of Social Networks and Institutions |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| This paper aims to contribute to an understanding of differential vulnerability and adaptive capacity by incorporating the concept of social capital into analyses of global change. I argue that social networks play an important role in shaping the complexity and diversity of coping capacity, which in turn influences social vulnerability to global change processes. However, the strength of social networks is affected by social, economic and political changes in society, including changes associated with economic globalization. Confronted with the dual processes of climate change and economic globalization, rural households must cope with multiple challenges to their livelihoods. I present the cases of Cuba and Norway, two countries with strong social welfare systems, and explore the likely role of external structures on the creation and development of social networks within agrarian households. In particular, I focus on state functioning, including its role in shaping the properties or characteristics of social networks, such as bonding, bridging and linking ties. I investigate how different types of networks serve as safety nets and channels for accessing coping mechanisms when households face the dual stresses of climate change and economic globalization. The results show that there is a strong relationship between network social capital and livelihood resilience and coping capacity. Because social networks shape vulnerability, analyses of social capital can contribute to a deeper understanding of differential outcomes to global change processes. |
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| Assessing susceptibility of societies: A political science perspective |
| Author: Taenzler, Dennis
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| Institutional Affiliation: Adelphi Research
Berlin, Germany |
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| Panel Title: A New Approach to Assessing Vulnerability to Climate: Results from the Security Diagrams Project |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Extreme climate events like droughts pose more and more a severe challenge to societies with potential far reaching consequences for social, cultural, economic as well as political contexts. These consequences depend on the one hand on the amount of water related stress. On the other hand different sources of capacities and sensitivities need to be taken into account when the overall susceptibility of societies is to be assessed. Past research on the relationship of certain state characteristics and the occurrence of crisis events indicates that numerous indicators and data collections exist but that there are only few approaches to combine them in a theoretical profound way.
This paper aims to improve the understanding of susceptibility by developing a theory-oriented approach and applying it to three drought affected case studies regions, namely Andhra Pradesh (India), the Volga region (Russia) and (Southern) Portugal. To this end the model of 'security diagrams' is used as a common framework, in which the three concepts of environmental stress, susceptibility and crisis are integrated into an interdisciplinary assessment. The guiding question of this paper is what characteristics of societies promote the occurrence of crisis given a high amount of water related stress. The paper is structured in the following way: First, our understanding of crisis events is elaborated against the backdrop of different social sciences approaches highlighting the empirical problems associated with the identification of crisis events. Second, we conceptualize the dimension of susceptibility using a systemic understanding of society as starting point. We argue that the overall susceptibility of a society depends on an interplay of political capacity, economic sensitivity and the degree of socio-cultural integration. To transform the conceptual model into a susceptibility assessment we will develop an inference model in order to generate quantitative indices. For this purpose we apply fuzzy set theory using data from our case study regions. Finally, in our conclusions, we point out and discuss the theoretical and empirical shortcomings of our approach suggesting potential improvements to the model. |
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| Socially constructed process for global change research programs |
| Author: Takeshita, Toshihide
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| Institutional Affiliation: Azabu University |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: docs/Takeshita.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| The global change studies in the US and in Japan are analyzed as socially constructed processes, or as boundary works in between science and policy, and between natural science and social science.
Historical review of USGCRP and IGBP shows the discrepancies between social science approaches and natural science studies, because of the inherent characteristics that social science area has with pluralities in the world views according to each discipline or to the scenarios how people designs their futures.
Reductions of the uncertainties are considered to be the major targets for the present programs of USGCRP. However, emphasis is on uncertainty reductions for natural change and variability, and uncertainties caused by human activities, especially energy, natural resources usage, and ecosystems are not properly integrated. At present reformulation of USGCRP to USCCSP program, it is hoped to have much more integrations, which will require the development of alternative future scenarios and integrated assessment inevitably embedding policy options. For this process to be comprehensive, the participation of epistemic communities will become indispensable. In Japan, major studies on global change are so far concentrated in natural science areas, and do not have appropriate interfaces with human dimensions, the background of which is investigated.
Major approaches for the integration of social science into the global change studies can be attained through this scenario development and integrated assessment processes. Introduction of these processes into Japanese global change studies are considered to be important for future directions.
This analysis shows that the socially constructed boundary works such as sustainability science, distributional equity of and stewardship to ecological services, and commonality or mutual recognition for the visions to future societies can be integrated into the scenario development and integrated assessment, which will become critical means for international mutual recognitions. |
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| Georgia Basin Digital Library: Connecting People with Ideas and Ideas with Place |
| Author: Talwar, Sonia
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| Co-Author(s): Murray Journeay, Rob Harrap, Boyan Brodaric, Joost van Ulden, Ryan Grant, Shannon Denny |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Department of Geography, University of British Columbia |
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| Panel Title: The Georgia Basin Futures Project: Participatory Integrated Assessment at a Regional Scale |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| The GBDL project has the two-fold objective of 1) determining design specifications for a web-based digital library application based on principles of regional and local stewardship of information and knowledge resources for a region and 2) support awareness and knowledge building of sustainability concepts. As a result, the project focused on building an extensible system architecture and prototype development. The GBDL is particularly focused on supporting the user in building an understanding of relationships and representations of ecological, social, political, cultural and economic issues through the use of web-based geographic information system, narrative elements and semantic relationships. By providing a framework for users to contribute their understanding and perspective on their local region through the use of a map interface and the ability to associate text, image, audio and video, local knowledge resources may accrue, be shared and juxtaposed with other sources of knowledge. Coupled with activities in the GBFP, the GBDL also provides a home to explore QUEST. This paper will describe the use of the application in community learning and community planning contexts and will examine current work to extend representation of place and meaning through visualization. |
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| Deliberative governance and participatory integrated assessment: is there a link? |
| Author: Tansey, James
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| Institutional Affiliation: Sustainable Development Research Initiative, University of British Columbia |
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| Panel Title: The Georgia Basin Futures Project: Participatory Integrated Assessment at a Regional Scale |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| In recent years, a great deal of effort has been expended to embed integrated assessment in participatory methods. Much of this effort is based on the assumption that the need for greater participation is self-evident. The paper presents a review of the deliberative governance literature, which assumes that the case for participatory methods is not self-evident and that the use participatory methods requires trade-offs. In addition, I argue that participation is typically only proposed for the process of policy design, which assumes that the process of implementation is a simple and mechanical process. The final section considers whether and how the mantra of participation might be incorporated into policy implementation. |
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| Living in groups, dying alone: the social dimensions of health
and their relevance to global environmental change |
| Author: Tansey, James
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| Institutional Affiliation: University of British Columbia |
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| Panel Title: Carnegie Mellon Approach to Human Dimensions of Global Change |
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| Paper Link: docs/Tansey.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| Research in the field of epidiomiolgy has established that there are strong health gradients associated with a range of social dimensions including income, education and income inequality. Similar methodologies in occupational health research have shown that employment status has an effect on health outcomes, independent of the impact of unemployment on absolute income. More recent research has established that the sense of agency, discretion and demand in the workplace all have an impact on the health outcomes of employees. The paper will present the results of research that examines whether the strength of social networks has an impact on health at both the individual and the population level in Canada. More broadly the paper sets out a framework that links social change at the structural level to health impacts mediated by the social dimensions identified in the health literature. In the context of global environmental change, this thesis implies that health effects are the product both of primary changes to the physical environment and secondary adaptive changes at the level of social institutions (i.e. changes to income inequality, employment security, social networks/capital).
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| Sustainable Development Indicators for Global Change in the Philippines: Local Communities' Meanings and Interpretations |
| Author: Tapia, Maricel
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| Co-Author(s): Rodel D. Lasco |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Environmental Forestry Programme, College of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of the Philippines Los Baños |
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| Panel Title: Early Warning and Preparedness |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| The call for sustainable development has created a need to develop indicators at various scales that would measure the state of nature-society system. Central to this undertaking is the integration of environmental considerations in this monitoring process that would tell when changes in the earth system are reaching critical and perhaps irreversible thresholds, and to provide guidance in decision-making. Global change acts as the major driver of these environmental changes, and its effects are known to threaten the capacity of the earth system to sustain life. However, most of the indicators developed to measure environmental sustainability, particularly in the community or local level, have been based on externally-imposed criteria on local circumstance, opportunities, and constraints (Frank 1989).
This SARC-START funded study aims to determine how global change concerns can be integrated into the existing national sustainable development indicators (SDIs). Specifically, it reports the results of the field research to develop and test a methodology of evoking the meanings and interpretations of sustainable development and environmental changes in the context of local culture-environmental system. Hence, the wealth of indigenous knowledge stored in the memory and experiences of the local people can be integrated into the national SDI. This consideration of culturally-relevant indicators can be useful in reshaping development paths that are responsive to the needs of local people.
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| The Effect of Government Actions on Innovation in SO2 Control Technology |
| Author: Taylor, Margaret
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| Institutional Affiliation: Goldman School of Public Policy
University of California, Berkeley |
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| Panel Title: Policy-Technology Interactions in Mitigating the Environmental Burden of Human Activities |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| A better understanding of the influence of government actions on innovation is needed to inform future policy efforts in environmentally sustainable growth. Environmental control technology is a rich area for the study of this influence, since government has stronger incentives to promote innovation in these technologies than does the private sector. This paper presents research on the case of sulfur dioxide (SO2) control technologies for electric power plants. In studying innovation in these technologies, it was very important to understand the details of these technologies as well as their long organizational history. These technologies have been affected by government actions ranging from government-sponsored research and technology transfer mechanisms to national regulatory events.
This research integrates insights from several complementary and repeatable innovation evaluation methods in order to support a fuller understanding of innovation while structuring the results for future comparative analysis. Innovative activities were investigated through: patent activity analysis; technical content analysis and researcher co-authorship network analysis in a conference held for over twenty years; learning curve analysis for eighty-eight U.S. power plants; and a dozen expert interviews from a variety of innovative actors. Innovative outcomes were investigated through: analysis of observed improvements in newly installed technologies over time; evaluation of historic cost studies on standardized systems; and expert interviews.
Several policy-relevant findings resulted from this effort. (1) The existence of national government regulation stimulated inventive activity more than government research support alone. (2) The existence and the anticipation of government regulation appeared to spur inventive activity, while regulatory stringency appeared to drive inventive activity and the communication process underlying knowledge transfer and diffusion. (3) The regulatory-forced adoption of SO2 control technologies led to a learning curve effect in which operating experience with the equipment resulted in significant cost improvements. This learning curve effect is comparable with findings in many other industries and is likely to be useful in predictions of the costs of future environmental technologies. (4) Performance improvements and cost reductions occurred in a quantifiable fashion as the technology became more widely adopted.
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| The Precautionary Principle: Torn between Biodiversity and Environment-related Food Safety Regulations |
| Author: Thomas, Urs P.
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| Co-Author(s): Makane Moïse Mbengue |
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| Institutional Affiliation: University of Geneva,
Dept. Public International Law |
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| Panel Title: The Precautionary Principle and Global Environmental Change: Taking Stock and Moving Forward |
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| Paper Link: docs/Thomas.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| This paper represents a stock-taking of the role of the precautionary principle (PP) in global environmental governance. Two multilateral frameworks are located at opposite ends of the spectrum with regards to the operationalization of the PP: The Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety to the Convention on Biological Diversity has gone further than any other multilateral environmental agreement in integrating precaution in operational articles; these relate to measures a member country may take in order to limit or ban the importation of certain GM products, namely living modified organisms such as seeds or GM commodities. On the other hand, we have the Codex Alimentarius, the joint FAO/WHO international food standard that is a reference point for the WTO dispute settlement mechanism. Although precautionary measures have been discussed extensively, consensus on an operationalization of the PP looks unlikely here in the near future. We shall limit ourselves to environment-related food safety, specifically GM food. It should be emphasized that the regulation of trade in raw GM food products is covered by both the Biosafety Protocol and the Codex Alimentarius.
How does the international community deal with this divide that sets closely related UN sister organizations so much apart with regards to one of the most important driving forces of the development of global environmental governance? Our legal and institutional analysis will show the roots of this divide, as well as its implications and ramifications, especially with regards to some of the key WTO agreements. The timing of this analysis represents a particularly pertinent stock-taking because the Biosafety Protocol is right now on the verge of entering into force. At the same time it is indisputable that the year 2003 is of historical importance for the Codex Alimentarius because first of all it will conclude the first ever comprehensive evaluation process (both internal and external) in its over forty year long history, and secondly it is presently concluding a four year long negotiation about the regulation of trade in GM food. |
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| Sub-global assessments: Ensuring usefulness, credibility, and legitimacy in the Alternatives to
Slash-and-Burn crosscutting assessment |
| Author: Timmer, Dagmar
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| Co-Author(s): Thomas Tomich |
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| Institutional Affiliation: World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF) |
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| Panel Title: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment |
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| Paper Link: docs/Timmer.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| As one among many sub-global assessments of the MA, the Alternatives to Slash-and-Burn System-wide Programme (ASB) is conducting a cross-cutting assessment entitled "Forest and Agroecosystem Tradeoffs in the Tropics". This will entail a nested, multi-level, multi-user assessment of the interface between tropical forest ecosystems and forest-derived agroecosystems, focusing on the landscape mosaics that characterize the forest margins. Increasingly, it is appreciated that ecosystem assessment and management in such settings needs to evolve from a focus on neat categories to an acknowledgement of the chaotic reality in the field, with a large number of actors making their own decisions, often disregarding official plans and policies. Moreover, the various stakeholders often have conflicting interests among various ecosystem goods and services. The national ASB consortia, which include local user groups at the ASB benchmark sites, have the potential to become vehicles for participation by diverse groups within the countries concerned, and thus a platform for user-driven ecosystem assessment and ultimately for conflict management. Although ASB has considerable experience in participation with specific groups, partnership with the MA has strengthened ASB's efforts to move to the next level of the challenge, namely how to articulate participation across multiple groups with conflicting interests. A comparative approach to local and national user needs assessment, based on protocols developed for the MA crosscutting assessment, will clarify dynamics among groups and thereby increase practical understanding of challenges at specific sites as well as leading toward generalizable insights regarding the most effective and efficient means to develop and support effective frameworks for participation by key local and national stakeholders in seeking solutions when there are conflicting interests regarding ecosystem services. These activities are fundamental to ensuring the usefulness, credibility, and legitimacy of the ASB crosscutting assessment and also may provide valuable insights for future ecosystem assessments. |
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| Promote, Protest, Partner: The Diverse Roles of Non-governmental Organizations in Addressing Global Environmental Change |
| Author: Timmer, Vanessa
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| Institutional Affiliation: Ph.D. candidate, University of British Columbia
Fulbright Research Fellow, Harvard University |
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| Panel Title: Civil Society Movements and Environmental Change |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| The actors mobilizing to address global environmental change include nation-states, international organizations, the private sector and nongovernmental organizations. Nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) are organizations that are not-for-profit, operating outside of government and the private sector and working to advance the common good. NGOs play a number of essential roles in addressing global environmental change including identifying social and environmental problems, raising public awareness of the challenges, proposing and implementing solutions, monitoring the actions of other actors including governments and the private sector, and a variety of other roles.
In recent years, nongovernmental organizations have been faced with increasing demands to demonstrate their effectiveness in performing these roles as their numbers have proliferated and their prominence has increased. The rise in NGO credibility in the eyes of other transnational actors has been coupled with a questioning of NGO effectiveness in achieving their goals, of NGO legitimacy to speak for the people and causes that they purport to represent, and of NGO accountability to their multiple stakeholders including funders/donors, staff, and the targets of their actions. The demands for evaluation extends into the realm of the internal functioning of NGOs and their organizational structure, transparency, capacity, governance and resource efficiency.
This paper seeks to address the following questions: Are certain NGO roles in addressing global environmental change more effective than others? How has this changed over time?
This paper traces the long-term trends that have altered and expanded the roles that NGOs undertake in addressing global environmental change from the 1972 UN Conference on the Human Environment to the 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development. These trends include the shift from a focus on the nation-state as the central decision-maker to a focus on multiple actors and partnerships as key to decision-making and implementation, and the shift from a focus on single global environmental issues towards addressing complex, multi-dimensional systems of interrelated issues. The paper analyzes the impact of these long-term trends on shaping the role of NGOs in addressing global environmental change through examining the changes in NGO ideology, organizational structure, resource mobilization, and strategies. |
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| Planning and Performance Comparison of Rural and Urban |
| Author: Tokun, Adegbola
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| Institutional Affiliation: IHDP |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| The Federal Government of Nigeria in 1997 voted a large sum of money into
the development of national rural water supply projects with the objective
of making them sustainable. The government adopted the broad policy of
"government provides, the beneficiary communities operate and maintain." The
projects comprised 36 rehabilitated and 44 new boreholes for Anambra one of
the southeastern States. Out of the new boreholes, 10 were categorised as
shallow with hand pumps and 34 were deep boreholes with motorised
submersible pumps.
Around the same period the Sustainable Ibadan Project (SIP) an offshoot of
the Sustainable Cities Project funded by the United Nations Centre for Human
Settlement (UNCHS) was involved in the development of sustainable community
water supply projects in Ibadan a city in the South Western State.
The federal government only sensitized the beneficiary communities to
accepting the responsibility for operating and maintaining the projects
without involving them in the conception and execution stages. On the other
hand, the SIP fully involved the beneficiary communities from the conception
phase through to the operation and maintenance stage.
While still under construction the federal government stopped the projects
leaving them in varying stages of completion. As at 2002, about 14 of the
completed rural water projects and about four SIP urban projects have been
operating for an average of three years. A monitoring and evaluation
exercise was performed on all these completed and functioning projects.
This paper discusses the different approach to environmental planning and
management (EPM) process employed by both bodies to achieve sustainability.
It accounts for the similarities and dissimilarities in the methods adopted
in sensitizing and mobilising the beneficiary stakeholders and the problems
encountered. The performances of the projects based on community
willingness, community participation, involvement of other stakeholders,
revenue generation and capacity building are compared and contrasted.
The effect of the role of government and politics on sustainable projects is
analysed. The paper finally advances how the EPM process can be
institutionalised despite government apathy.
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| The Challenge of Integration: Insights from integrated natural resource management research by the Alternatives to Slash-and-Burn Programme |
| Author: Tomich, Thomas
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| Co-Author(s): Cheryl Palm, Anne-Marie Izac |
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| Institutional Affiliation: World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), Kenya |
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| Panel Title: S&T Private-Public Partnerships for Sustainable Development: Toward What End? With What Means? |
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| Paper Link: docs/Tomich.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| The Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research's (CGIAR) first review of system-wide programmes with an ecosystem approach concluded that "The Alternatives to Slash and Burn Programme has gone further than the others in relating its research sites to the whole area over which the problem occurs, and in scaling up to the global level in its findings on tradeoffs ... This is very helpful for the global debate on sustainability issues." To date, ASB has concentrated on producing these scientific outputs (e.g., the ASB matrices), but has devoted much less attention to understanding and documenting the processes and institutional innovations that have made this possible. However, a developing collaboration with researchers in the "Sustainability Science" group based at Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government, has provided an analytical framework for analyzing ASB's approach to "Institutional challenges for harnessing science and technology for sustainability" (Clark et al., 2002, http://www.sustainabilityscience.org). Capacity for integration (disciplinary, functional, spatial, and temporal) is of central interest for analysis of the ASB experience and would seem to be highly relevant to the MA. The Sustainability Science framework encompasses other elements too -- including institutional learning and adaptation; participation (both for legitimacy and discovery); and strategies for managing resource and capacity constraints - on which ASB has considerable experience and where process-based insights also might be relevant for the MA and other integrated assessments. On-line facilitation services and new software will enable a virtual team (comprising current and past ASB coordinators and other coordination office staff, ASB Global Steering Group members, which is the governing body of ASB, and active scientists and other stakeholders) to provide input online to document the ASB processes from various perspectives. This would have the great advantage of triangulating the perceptions of processes and key turning points in ASB's development from the perspective of a large number of those involved. Based on previous ASB/MA team experience on-line course, a structured activity of this type would work well in an asynchronous, virtual format. The current ASB Global Coordinator would take the lead in preparing material for discussion and comment on line by a large number of participants, whose interventions would automatically be documented on-line. Virtual tools (e.g. electronic polling) also will be used to identify areas of consensus; and where consensus is lacking, the differing perspectives could be documented too. |
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| Why such a tremendous expansion of cattle ranching in the Eastern Brazilian Amazon ? Results from a new research methodology. |
| Author: Tourrand, Jean François
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| Co-Author(s): M. G. Piketty, J. B. da Veiga, A.M.Alves, M.C. Thâles, R. Poccard Chapuis |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon is strongly linked to the expansion of cattle ranching: according to national inventories, the creation of pasture for cattle ranching accounts for about 80 percent of the deforested areas. Several studies, based on traditional farming systems surveys and analysis, pointed out that this activity has one of the lowest rate of return and is not suited for small scale agriculture, therefore questionning the true underlying factors of such a tremendous investment in this sector from both large and small landholders. During a research project financed by the National Science Foundation, a new methodology has been developed to try to better understand the whole determinants of livestock expansion in the Eastern Brazilian Amazon. This methodology is based on the identification of key-informants and qualitative open surveys led by multidisciplinary groups, and was carried out in three contrasted agricultural frontiers of the Amazon. Results allow to better rank the main determinants of livestock expansion in the Eastern Brazilian Amazon as drawn from the actors themselves and not derived from ad-hoc hypothesis of their behaviour and rationality Policies implications will be discussed as well as the methodological limitations. |
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| When smallholders sequester carbon: Opportunities and constraints in the Sahel |
| Author: Tschakert, Petra
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| Institutional Affiliation: Arid Lands Resource Sciences, University of Arizona |
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| Panel Title: Adapting to Global Change: The Role of Social Networks and Institutions |
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| Paper Link: docs/tschakert.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| One of the major challenges in community carbon offset programs is to achieve an efficient, equitable, and competitive organization of local smallholders and rural poor to prevent the 'preemption of innovation' by local technical elites, urban businessmen, and other early adopters and innovators in the emerging carbon market. Particularly in dryland environments with predominant small-scale, complex, and dynamic land-use systems, strong local institutions that support the rights and responsibilities of participating smallholders, will have a crucial role to play.
This paper, based on a case study from Senegal, describes how both formal institutions and informal social networks can lower the high transactions costs usually associated with community carbon schemes. Rural Councils and specific carbon committees are identified as the most promising institutional vehicles to negotiate and determine roles, participation, management agreements, and appropriate cost-sharing mechanisms, thus reducing risks of noncompliance and leakage. Informal land tenure arrangements, bypassing the restrictive code of the 'Loi sur le Domaine National', the state law, provide opportunities for more flexible land transactions and land use options, suitable for long-term soil fertility management and carbon storage. Finally, the paper assesses the role of individual smallholders, trained in soil and biomass carbon measurements, to ensure regular and required monitoring at the community level.
The author proposes a farmer-centered approach to carbon sequestration in the Sahel that, implying a general shift in power and control from global to local, advocates a much larger role for local institutions than currently envisioned under the managerial discourse of the climate change debate. |
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| Environmental and Social Ramifications of Volatile Coffee Markets in Western Honduras |
| Author: Tucker, Catherine
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| Co-Author(s): Jane Southworth |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Indiana University |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: docs/Tucker.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| International coffee markets have been experiencing a crisis brought on by a global surplus. For nations that depend upon coffee as a major export crop, the ramifications of drastically low prices have been profound, especially for small producers that lack alternative sources of income. In Honduras, coffee has become a major export crop, and smallholders produce much of it. This study focuses on an area in western Honduras for which shadegrown coffee represents the principal market crop. The research incorporated surveys, interviews, observations, and time series analyses of satellite images to evaluate the impacts of low coffee prices on coffee-producing households and the natural environment. The situation carries notable implications for social and environmental conditions: Reduced income may lower household ability to send children to school, and lead to malnutrition and disease. If farmers clear shadegrown coffee for annual crops, it may increase erosion, increase carbon emissions, and diminish wildlife habitat. Alternatively, low prices may slow deforestation related to clearing for coffee.
The study found great diversity in farmers' experiences. All households had suffered major declines in income. Farmers had reduced inputs for coffee, but none had yet eliminated coffee fields for other crops. Reductions of income had severely impacted poorer households' ability to cover basic needs; one health center reported increasing child malnutrition. Better-off households had found new sources of income through diversification, including expanded annual crop production. A few households reported clearing new fields for coffee because they felt confident that prices would rise. Respondents concurred that government policies had largely failed to address the crisis, but the larger producers had access to subsidies unavailable to smaller, poorer producers. Analyses of remotely sensed images coincided with the survey results: areas of regrowth and clearing were both evident the higher elevations where coffee is grown. Coffee production had fallen, but environmental impacts were mixed. The results suggest a need for improved policies. Given that poorer households have been most compromised, programs aimed at poverty alleviation and development of alternative income sources appear more critical than efforts to improve the competitiveness of Honduran coffee, which primarily benefit largeholders.
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| System innovations: the role of public contract research organisations |
| Author: Tukker, Arnold
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| Co-Author(s): Maurits Butter |
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| Institutional Affiliation: TNO-STB |
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| Panel Title: Innovation and Technology for Managing Human-Environment Systems |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| TNO, a major public contract research organisation in the EU (5500 staff), is active in various activities that aim to promoting sustainable system innovation (a sustainable innovation research programme, a Sustainable System Innovation initiative, and the so-called NIDO/KSI initiative).
Against this background, TNO embarked on various activities that had as a goal to:
1. Analyse the nature of system innovations. We will present a model of 'streams' and 'rounds' (Butter et al. 2002). The streams basically deal with the different issues that play a role in the transition process; whereas the 'rounds' are comparable to the phases of Winsemius' policy cycles or Rotmans'and Kemp's transition phases.
2. To assess the position and potential of public contract research organisations in stimulation of system innovations (based on Tukker and Nijhuis, 2002);
3. To formulate a coherent internal and external research programme. Here, basically a distinction is made in system analysis, foresight and backcasting, business strategy and 'drivers, development of pilot projects and 'living laboratories', policy measures for system innovation, and evaluation and overall vision development on the issue of sustainable system innovation. By this, a true link between theory and practice is created, allowing for learning in interaction with doing.
The presentation will result in a vision in how and to what extent (public) research organisations can truly stimulate system innovations. We'll argue that the expectations are often (much) too high. Of course research can induce system changes ' but it is doubtful if this automatically forms a change towards sustainability. Hence, a probably more important issue is the creation of drivers that stimulate actors to guide their innovation efforts into a sustainable direction. Which is not a matter of doing the fortyest pilot project, but taking stock of the lessons embedded in Kingdon's windows of opportunity, Sabatiers advocacy coalition approach, etc.
Note: TNO leads a promising, 10+ Million Euro, EU 6th Framework Programme Network of Excellence proposal on sustainable innovation. In October 2003 it is clear if this programme will be awarded, and in that case the talk will address the creation of the EU wide network as well.
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| Migration, Land Tenure, and Environmental Change: Legal Pluralism and Insecurity in Africa |
| Author: Unruh, Jon
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| Institutional Affiliation: Department of Geography, and Center for the Study of Institutions, Population, and Environmental Change, Indiana University |
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| Panel Title: Vulnerability and Adaptation Research in Southern Africa |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Increasingly pervasive rural to rural migration in the developing world is emerging as an important force in environmental change scenarios, as biophysical and social changes combine with degrading resources and changing resource access to compromise livelihoods. The impact of migration on resources and resource use systems extends beyond direct migrant-induced environmental degradation, and includes feedbacks on further deforestation, land degradation, and migration; and leads governments and the international community to search for appropriate policy solutions. In a migration context the most important interaction between migrants, and between migrants and local communities, is over access to resources, and in particular the land resources needed for near term security--particularly livelihood and food security, but more fundamentally the tenure security which undergirds these. In this context rural land resource rights and the security of these play a primary role in how migrants intersect with destination resources and communities, and the resulting environmental consequences. The property rights constructs that emerge to handle migrants' land access plays a fundamental role in trajectories of land use toward conservation of natural resources and sustainable development, or resource degradation and additional migration. This paper examines the deforestation consequences of migration in Zambia, and focuses on the land tenure arrangements that operate to facilitate land access. With one of the highest deforestation rates in the world and significant migration underway, Zambia provides a representative case where a chain of related migration events is tied to environmental degradation. This paper examines questions about how tenurial constructs involving land access and claim for migrants lead to the continued clearing of areas much larger than needed for near term agricultural pursuits in an attempt to secure claim to land already apparently provided by local authority structures. Important here are issues of devolving greater rights to communities (both local and migrant), versus an incomplete understanding of rights that are possessed. Because all societies have rules attempting to govern property rights, local to national to international policies involving migration and 'development' will need to attend to the associated resource access arrangements that will be important to food and livelihood security. |
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| Coping and adapting to climate variability in the Andes: strategies and local knowledge |
| Author: Valdivia, Corinne
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| Co-Author(s): Jere Gilles |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Missouri Columbia |
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| Panel Title: Rural Livelihoods and Climate Variability: Insights for Adaptation to Longer Term Change |
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| Paper Link: docs/Valdivia.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| Rural households in the Andes of South America face droughts, frosts, floods, and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). At the national and regional levels in the Andes, these events result in millions of dollars of losses (Sarmiento and Montecinos, 2001). The 1997 ENSO event losses to Bolivia's Andean agriculture were 279 million dollars (Jovel, 1998). In Peru estimated losses of $1,800 million included agriculture and smallholder producers (Olson et al, 2000). Impacts were attributed to social vulnerability (Zapata and Sueiro, 2000), not to lack of information about the event. With the exception of Southern Peru (Franco 2000) mitigation policies were not in place (Zapata and Sueiro, 2000), which stressed the need to improve institutional capacities (Jovel, 1998; Ropelewski, 2001). Void of national and regional institutions, many rural communities of the Andes of Peru and Bolivia develop their own coping strategies to adapt to climate and other events using their own resources, institutions, and knowledge. Our research in this region focused on two themes, household strategies developed to cope with the certainty of climate variability, and the role of networks to access climate forecasts. Lessons are drawn on the dynamic and opportunistic behavior of rural households in their coping strategies, for both Bolivia and Peru, highlighting similarities and differences resulting from the agroecological conditions, and the political market and social structures. In all cases, the impact of 1997-1998 ENSO on land use and yield changes in potato production are discussed in the context of the household portfolios. Local knowledge forecasts are identified, as are the networks and institutions, providing insights into how new information could be processed and delivered to rural communities. The nature of the networks and characteristics of nodes of information in the context of household strategies provide insights of what is relevant. Potential avenues to facilitate adaptation through policy and technology are proposed. We draw lessons on who cope, who adapt to climate variability, what contributes to coping and adaptation, and if and how climate forecast information improves local capacities to cope with variability. |
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| Stakeholder participation in research on transitions towards sustainability. A methodological perspective |
| Author: van de Kerkhof, Marleen
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| Co-Author(s): Anna J. Wieczorek |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit
De Boelelaan 1087
1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands
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| Panel Title: Transitions Towards Sustainability: How to induce them? (IHDP IT Session 3) |
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| Paper Link: docs/VanDeKerkhof.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| It is increasingly recognised in science, policy and society that the global environmental problems of today, such as climate change, ozone depletion and loss of biodiversity, are complex in nature. These problems are difficult to deal with because of being global in scope while deeply embedded in local and national economies and social cultures. Solv-ing these complex problems requires a major transformation of the current systems of production, consumption and incentive structure. Due to the high urgency to formulate policy, the need for system changes became a focus of many research and policy groups. This is particularly the case in the Netherlands, in which the government recently adopted transitions and transition management as useful concepts in its policy for sus-tainability. In order to effectively support the policy process, scientific efforts are needed to investigate the transition process. It is increasingly recognised that, due to scientific uncertainty, diverse interests at stake, and the urgency to formulate policy, the transition research may benefit from the involvement of stakeholders. In this paper, we present a number of methodological key issues that need to be taken into account in the design and implementation of participatory transition research. By doing so, we aim to increase the usefulness of the research outcomes for the policy-making process. |
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| From independent experts to integrative partners: the diversity of scientific credibility in a changing world |
| Author: van Kerkhoff, Lorrae
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| Institutional Affiliation: National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health,
Australian National University |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| While it is commonplace to note the rate and scale of global change is increasing both biophysically and socio-culturally, only recently have people begun to examine the consequences of such change on research. This paper reports on a study that examined how different approaches to environmental research gained credibility in very different policy settings. In the high-level, politically controversial area of land use change and the greenhouse effect, research programs tended to conform to conventional models of scientific credibility through peer review and traditional academic process. In the small-scale, less controversial setting of coastal management, credibility was gained by engagement and integration of research goals with local managers. This study suggests that traditional sources of academic credibility are being complemented by a range of alternative strategies researchers can use to enhance the relevance of their work. Increasing emphasis on research 'integration' opens up opportunities for developing new approaches to the science-policy interface. Identifying the range of strategies and understanding when different approaches are appropriate is an emerging feature of the environmental research landscape. |
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| The Impact of GB-QUEST on Cultural Models of Sustainability |
| Author: VanWynsberghe, Robert
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| Co-Author(s): Theresa Satterfield, Jennifer Shapka, Misty Lockhart, Yolanda Yim, Ginnie Holden |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Institute of Health Promotion Research, University of British Columbia |
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| Panel Title: The Georgia Basin Futures Project: Participatory Integrated Assessment at a Regional Scale |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| This paper contribution to the panel describes research that ¿tests¿ the influence of GB-QUEST on players¿ thinking about and mental models of sustainability. In addition, it examines GB-QUEST¿s impact on perceived sense of individual responsibility and efficacy in realizing a sustainable future. The literature review is being generated in the areas of culture and cognition (values/actions), lay vs. expert knowledge systems, visualization and effective learning. Our research questions regarding individual¿s cognitive models of sustainability and agency will be answered by pre and post surveys, participant observation and individual interviews. The relevant research questions we answer include: the extent to which players¿ models of sustainability is open to influence when playing GB-QUEST; the existence and/or distinctiveness of patterns of thought or shared models across broad segments of the lower mainland population? We also explore the issue of agency in asking if GB-QUEST compels individuals to view themselves as more consequential with regard to the future; and if it increases one¿s awareness of the effects of individual behaviours? Qualitatively speaking, our results will derive models from players¿ evaluations of behaviours and policies that cause or defeat sustainability. In essence, we are inferring relationships between sustainability concepts learned in playing GB-QUEST from the arrangement and relationship of terms in combination with contextual detail. Our quantitative results will be produced by SPSS and control for age, socio-economic status, prior beliefs about sustainability and gender. Ultimately our analysis will respond to items in our cultural models, which reflect the following:
1. Degrees of "green-ness" in responses
2. Causal ideas about sustainability
3. Values and ethical content
4. Issues of scale (global versus local conceptualizations)
5. Tenor and valence of emotions (how emotionally engaged are they when talking about sustainability)
6. Degree of personal agency as well as the actions they associate with sustainability |
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| International Legal Framework of Intellectual Property Rights and Autochthonous peoples in Amazon |
| Author: Varella, Marcelo
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| Institutional Affiliation: Universitary Centre of Brasilia |
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| Panel Title: Regulations and Environmental Change |
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| Paper Link: docs/varella.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| The norms of intellectual property in force in international law are not appropriate for implementation of Convention on Biological Diversity, and protect autochthonous peoples. The legal framework is, in fact, articulated around multilateral agreements of two international organizations: World Intellectual Property Organization and TRIPS agreement from World Trade Organization (WTO). After the creation of WTO, more than 140 countries must create legal frameworks for intellectual property, much more than before, when just 40 developed countries did.
The models for intellectual property related to biodiversity are patents and plant breeder's rights. Developed countries use these more rigid mechanisms to protect microorganisms and plants, causing the accumulation of patents and plant breeder's rights. At the same time, Southern countries use a minimum regulatory framework permitting them to participate in WTO, but not too rigid, because they do not produce patentable technology. If they did, they would pay much more royalties than they would receive, considering a few numbers of countries that will receive some contribution. These norms are mainly the new national legal frameworks, created after the ratification of the 1994 Marrakech Treaty. Thus, they assure patents on transgenic microorganisms, and plant breeder's rights for plants.
Ignoring questions about the technological inequality between North and South, these models of intellectual property are injurious for environment, because they stimulate biodiversity impoverishment and they do not offer legal conditions to protect traditional knowledge, because: patents are individual rights; it must be a new knowledge; it is an exclusive right; it has a determined duration. Whereas the plant breeder's rights: are also individual rights; the plant variety must be homogenous; stable and distinguishable; it is an exclusive right; it is conceded during a determined delay of time.
An intellectual property system must be more pro-active than the systems existent today, possibly making a intellectual property right: non-exclusive, collective, not-limited on time, but limited in conservation, permitting public authorities to create an inventory; stimulating local communities and indigenous peoples to increase this inventory; non-permitting, in case of varieties of plants to be used as an instrument going through the non-diversity of species |
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| Responding to Deteriorating Economies and Environments: The Case of Marine Fishereis in the Mid-Gulf of California |
| Author: Vasquez-Leon, Marcela
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| Institutional Affiliation: Bureau of Applied Research in Anthropology, The University of Arizona |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Within the past 10 years, a team of researchers from the Bureau of Applied Research in Anthropology (BARA) at the University of Arizona have been involved in a series of socioeconomic and biological studies of fishing communities in different regions of the Gulf of California. Through the years a number of problems have been identified. These have to do with overexploitation and decline of commercial stocks, the elimination of fishing cooperatives, the arbitrary enforcement of conservation policies, and increased demands on marine resources by external users. As time goes by and resources become increasingly scarce, those problems have worsened and new problems have come about. The end result is that small-scale fishers and their communities are being pressured from all sides, to the point where traditional resource users, those who livelihoods have depended on fisheries for generations, are now discouraging their children from continuing to fish. In this paper I discuss the major problems that affect small-scale fishing communities in the region and the solutions being proposed by the state, NGOs, and the local communities to revive economies and to conserve resources. These problems and solutions, which can be equally problematic, have a variety of impacts on different types of communities. |
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| Priority issues for validation and future development of spatially explicit models of land use change |
| Author: Veldkamp, Tom
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| Co-Author(s): Peter Verburg, Kasper Kok |
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| Institutional Affiliation: LUCC Focus 3 office, Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen Univ., PO Box 37, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Models of land use change are tools to support the analysis of the causes and consequences of land use changes in order to better understand the functioning of the land use system and to support land use planning and policy. Models are useful for disentangling the complex suite of socio-economic and biophysical factors that influence the rate and spatial pattern of land use change and for estimating the impacts of changes in land use. In order to assess the quality, sensitivity and uncertainty of LUCC models a thorough validation is required. We will address validation issues by discussing the following important issues:
-Level of analysis;
-Cross-scale dynamics;
-Driving factors;
-Spatial interactions and neighbourhood effects;
-Temporal dynamics;
-Level of integration.
For each of these issues an overview is given of the variety of methods used to implement these concepts in operational models and how they are (or not) validated. Priority issues for the development of a generation of well-validated LUCC models will be discussed.
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| A vision for collaborative, web-based global change modelling |
| Author: Villa, Ferdinando
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| Co-Author(s): Roelof M.J. Boumans |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Gund Institute for Ecological Economics
University of Vermont |
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| Panel Title: Designing Landcover Change Models to Meet Policy Needs |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Global change modelling cuts across the policy and research fields in
various disciplines and to an unprecedented extent. Even more than in
other areas of research, useful global change modelling will depend on
concepts and technologies that allow easy test of scenarios,
transparent access to data and models, and the ability to recombinate
and compare existing data and models in a modular fashion.
We will discuss and demonstrate web-based technologies that are at the
forefront of a new approach to collaborative sharing of interoperable
data and models. We will illustrate how existing global change models
(such as our own Global Unified Model of the Biosphere) can be made
available in an environment that integrates database and modelling
capabilities through the World Wide Web, enabling the investigation of
change scenarios that depend on fast-changing data and fast-improving
interpretive models. Open source licensing of content and technologies
will allow unprecedented development in this and other areas of
scientific investigation.
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| Integrating Climate Variability and Fisheries Management: The Sectoral ENSO-Policies |
| Author: Villagran Naranjo, Hernan L.
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| Institutional Affiliation: Consultant/Analyst - Science, Technology and Public Policy |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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To cope with the effects of climate variability will, ultimately, be a matter of good policies, creative agencies, open access to relevant scientific information, rational decision making and effective leadership.
In this context, ENSO-related socioeconomic impacts are of great concern to economists, planners and development strategists, especially those pertaining to the realm of infrastructure, ocean-based natural resources, water resources management and hydroelectric power.
In dealing with this phenomenon, the ENSO-impacts to be faced must be coupled with the ENSO-scales. This fact is very important when designing the data acquisition strategy and how to make use of the information made available by observation systems in developing/producing
mitigation measures, management strategies and economic-environmental information. The latter is very suitable to decision-making models and for to design sectoral policies - The ENSO-policies - which, are also macroeconomic in nature.
As for fisheries management, those policies would intend to integrate the ENSO-related climate variability into the socioeconomic-natural system, which is comprised by the fisheries and the associated productive chain. In order to move a bit forward the following questions are
outlined:
* What we mean by ENSO-related fisheries infrestructure?
* What are the changes at ecosystem level that are more linked to the productive system?
* How the ENSO-disturbances exerted on the pelagic system travels along the productive chain?
The above-mentioned questions address the cross-scale processes that should be considered in supporting science-based policy-making in marine resources exploitation when the ENSO signal is incorporated. Therefore, it is argued that this multi-scale analysis has to be carried out
on four of the following socio-ecological dimensions - space, time, institution, and economy.
The ENSO-effects on the Chilean fisheries sector have several implications for food security, economic welfare, and sustainability of marine resource use.
This work intends to sketch the current decision-making process that predominate as a tool of fisheries management in Chile and proposed, from this starting point, some institutional mechanisms that could incorporate the climatic variability in order to foster sustainability
and long-term environmental governance. |
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| System of Environmental Indicators for Water Quality and Agriculture |
| Author: Vinnari, Markus
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| Co-Author(s): Luukkanen Jyrki |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Researcher
Turku School of Economics and Business Administration
Finland Futures Research Centre, Tampere |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: docs/vinnari.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| Work deals with the environmental problems originating from agriculture and affecting surface waters. The aim of this research was to identify the main problems that agriculture causes to surface waters and to examine what would be the best way to identify causal effects affecting agriculture and surface waters (find the proper environmental indicators). Testing how the relevant indicators could be found was also set as a target.
After an evaluation of different approaches the Driver, Pressure, State, Impact and Response (DPSIR) model was chosen as the environmental policy tool to be used in this case. The model was developed by European Environmental Agency and it points out the importance of the causality effects in environmental questions. The DPSIR framework is useful in describing the relationships between the origins and consequences of environmental problems, if indicators are chosen correctly. Special examples on how the model is used for one drainage area are presented.
The lakes used as case studies were lake Pyhäjärvi of Säkylä and lake Pyhäjärvi of Artjärvi in Finland. For these two lakes a new indicator system was developed and the data was collected. Humans as policy makers and the indicators capability to convey the expected meaning as policy instrument were discussed.
Keywords: DPSIR model, Indicator system, Agriculture, Surface water quality, Human response, Policy tools |
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| Shaping Socio-ecological Transformations. Problems of Uncertainty, ambigous goals, distributed control and the prospect of evolutionary governance. |
| Author: Voss, Jan-Peter
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| Institutional Affiliation: Oeko-Institut - Institute for Applied Ecology |
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| Panel Title: Transitions Towards Sustainability: How to induce them? (IHDP IT Session 3) |
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| Paper Link: docs/voss.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| The paper presents a concept of socio-ecological transformations which starts from the recursive relationship between agency and structure as it is used in neo-institutional analysis in political science, sociology and economics. These concepts are extended to include values, knowledge, institutions, technology and ecology as structural dimensions of socio-ecological systems.
Socio-ecological systems are thought of as a compound of interlinked socio-ecological figurations on different scales. Transformations are induced from technological niches, but also institutional or cultural niches in which new regulations or ideas are tested and developed. With globalisation, supranational policy making and global environmental change transformations may also increasingly be induced by developments on the macro-level (landscape). Finally, socio-ecological transformation may also be triggered on the meso-level by destabilising interactions within a regime (e.g. regulatory flaws eroding the performance base of an industry).
The governance challenge is to reflectively shape transformation processes according to goals of sustainability. One specific approach may be the management of a transition from one dynamic equilibrium to another (to escape lock-in situations). In other cases, however, sustainability may require the abatement of turbulent changes (to have time to adapt) or the perpetuation of transformation (to keep up learning capabilities in changing environments).
The general problem of shaping sustainable transformation can be pinpointed as (a) uncertainty about the effect of human interventions because of the complex dynamics of transformation, (b) ambiguity of goals due to the contested nature of sustainability and (c) distributed control as a basic condition of governance in modern societies.
These features require evolutionary modes of governance which aim at a reflective modulation of socio-ecological co-evolution. Strategies and institutions must be (i) adaptive in order to make use of opportunities and take up new knowledge, (ii) integrative in order to combine distributed knowledge, evaluations and action capacity and (iii) anticipative in order to avoid to lock in unsustainable trajectories.
Empirical examples for illustration of the concept are taken from ongoing research on the transformation of network bound infrastructure systems (electricity, gas, water, telecommunicatrions) in course of liberalisation and privatisation. |
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| Vertical Dimensions of the Sustainable Development Regime: Middle-Level Structures for Implementation |
| Author: Wagner, Lynn
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| Co-Author(s): Elisabeth Corell |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Earth Negotiations Bulletin/International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) |
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| Panel Title: Multilevel Environmental Governance |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| As the international process to manage sustainable development is moving into a critical phase, increased attention is devoted to the conditions for achieving successful implementation. This paper focuses on two critical ideas from the political and economic development literatures and explores how they apply to the sustainable development management regime.
Authors such as de Tocqueville and Nisbet caution about institutional arrangements that leave individuals responding solely to leaders and the resulting potential for despotism, suggesting the importance of middle-level political structures. Analysts of development projects offer a second, related idea that direct popular participation in decision-making can enhance the performance of local governments, increase the effectiveness of local organizations and improve development outcomes, suggesting the importance of local initiative and ownership. How closely has the sustainable development management regime applied these principles?
Following an introduction of these concepts, we review the international environmental governance and regime effectiveness literatures to consider their findings regarding the importance that middle-level structures and grassroots initiatives do or should play in the sustainable development management regime.
The heart of the paper compares these concepts in the literature with the structure and practice of the three UNCED treaties on Biological Diversity, Climate Change and Desertification. The chapter's underlying hypothesis is that if the treaties do not provide room for middle-level structures and allow grassroots initiatives to filter up as well as down, then the regime will not be effective.
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| Air Quality and Pulmonary Function: A New England Approach to Integrated Assessment |
| Author: Wake, Cameron
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| Co-Author(s): Tom Kelly, Jeffrey Salloway, Adam Wilson, Robert Woodward |
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| Institutional Affiliation: University of New Hampshire |
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| Panel Title: Environmental Change and Human Health |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| The broad goal of our regional integrated assessment, funded by NOAA - Office of Global Programs, is to improve public health. More specifically the New England Integrated Sciences and Assessment (NEISA) consists of two integrated activities: 1) engage a wide range of stakeholders in the development and implementation of a strategic plan to investigate the link between pulmonary health and air quality in New England; and 2) use the results of the investigation to create informed public policy, interventions to reduce exposure to air pollution, and guide the product development of the NOAA-funded AIRMAP (airmap.unh.edu) air quality forecasting research effort. Key stakeholders include university researchers, State Health and Human Services, Manchester Health Department, American/Canadian Lung Associations, New England States for Coordinated Air Use Management, and State Departments of Environmental Protection.
Guided by a collaborative process with our stakeholders, NEISA has embarked upon a series of prospective studies examining the link between pulmonary health and air quality. Using spirometers, we are collecting data describing changes in pulmonary function on a daily basis in summer camps and elementary schools in southern New Hampshire. This data is comparable in spatial and temporal resolution to the hourly air quality data that are currently being collected at a series of outdoor air quality and indoor air quality monitoring. In addition to individual pulmonary function testing, we are collecting a variety of other health indices including emergency room visits, lost workdays, school absenteeism, and school nurse visits. This unique nested approach will be capable of providing community based data at various resolutions, from population-based institutional data to individual measurements of changes in pulmonary function in children. The results of this research will, in turn, foster the effective design and implementation of regional and community-based public health interventions. In addition, we are also working with to adapt the Ontario Medical Association's 'Illness Cost of Health Pollution' model to new England so that we can estimate the health costs associated with air pollution events on daily, weekly, monthly, and annual time frames.
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| Challenges in understanding human impacts on land-use and land-cover change |
| Author: Walsh, Stephen
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| Co-Author(s): Billie Turner II, Ronald Rindfuss, Vinod Mishra, Jefferson Fox |
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| Institutional Affiliation: University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill |
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| Panel Title: Population and Environment Research: Taking Stock and Looking Forward |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Changes in the terrestrial surface of the earth are occurring at a rate, magnitude, and spatial extent unprecedented in human history. These changes have serious implications for sustainability of earth?s support systems and global environmental change, including land productivity, biotic diversity and ecosystem services, and climate change. Understanding human impacts on land-use and land-cover change requires integrating social, natural, and spatial sciences. This involves integrating complex land-use processes and different disciplinary means of addressing them, confronting a series of data, methodological, and analytical problems. This paper discusses important challenges faced by the research community attempting to study human-drivers of land-use and land-cover change, using recent case studies from Asia, Africa, and Americas as examples. Special focus is on integrating individual-community scale (micro-level) social science data with remotely sensed and other spatial data on land cover. |
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| Environmental transitions, possession of means of transport, and lifestyles in an urban environment |
| Author: Wane, Hamdou-Rabby
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| Institutional Affiliation: Independent Researcher |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Objectives: Aside from meteorological characteristics and complex physio-chemical processes, the state and evolution of air quality - composition and levels of pollution - in urban environments, is highly influenced by the intensity of user mobility in the urban territory and by the types - capacity, technology and energy source - of the means of transport (MT) used. The moment at which people have access to ownership of two types of private motorised MTs, motorcycles (MTC) and passenger cars (PC), is considered here to be an indicator of environmental transition . The objective of this study is to analyse this event with respect to the changes occurring in the individual's family, professional and residential characteristics as well as the macro-economic situation (energy costs, transport equipment markets).
Methodology: The data were collected in August 2000, from 1000 individuals belonging to 472 households distributed randomly throughout the 57 census zones of Ouagadougou. A triple-biography (family, activity, residence) was established, to which an additional module was added on the "history of MT's owned since the age of 21 . Secondary data on the macroeconomic situation was added to complete the base. The most appropriate analysis method here is Cox's semi-parametric regression method, which makes it possible to situate the changes in each stage of an individual's life cycle in relation to the conditions experienced (Courgeau and Lelièvre, 1989). In each of the Cox analyses, three models were chosen to carry out the approach in terms of generations (model 1), or characteristics centred around the individual, whether they are constant (model 2) or vary over time (model 3). |
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| Assessing Agricultural Producers' Vulnerability to Climate Variability and Extremes: an Analytical Methodological Framework based on the Notion of Sustainability. |
| Author: Wehbe, Mónica Beatriz
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| Co-Author(s): Hallie Eakin, Cristian Santos, Martín Civitaresi |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Universidad Nacional de Río Cuarto-
Facultad de Ciencias Económicas-
Departamento de Economía-
This paper has been developed within a research project ¿Integrated Assessment of Social Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change Among Farmers in Mexico and Argentina¿, AIACC Program/LA29, UNEP/START/TWAS. |
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| Panel Title: Integrated Assessment for Sustainable Development |
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| Paper Link: docs/Wehbe.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| It is increasingly recognized that the vulnerability of agricultural populations cannot be solely understood through quantification of biophysical impacts. Rather, socioeconomic and institutional factors can play an equal or even greater role in determining how particular populations will be affected by climatic events and change, and how such populations will be able to respond and adapt. The process by which farmers make decisions to manage the multiple risks they face is central to vulnerability assessment. However, the diversity of agricultural systems poses a methodological challenge.
In this paper, we use a concept of vulnerability that relates to the possibilities or constraints of agricultural populations to cope with and recover from the simultaneous exposure to both climatic and non-climatic stresses. Our methodology explicitly recognizes that the significant differences in farm types (e.g., scale, organization, resources, etc.) that characterize the agricultural sectors of Mexico and Argentina requires flexible approaches that capture contrasting responses to risk and uncertainty in order to gradually build a typology of farm vulnerability that encompasses the diversity of farm systems in the countries of study.
This methodological framework is based on several approaches: a) An assessment of current vulnerability, as a preliminary assessment of future vulnerability; b) An analysis of impacts and adaptive capacity differentiating between farm systems and livelihood strategies; c) A political economy approach that explores the institutions that structure ownership and access to assets; and, d) An analysis of sustainability as both an element in defining vulnerability and a possible outcome of adaptation.
A preliminary evaluation of the proposed methodology induces to conclude, among others, that although it is difficult to capture all significant differences in types of farm organization and resources, it is possible to identify particular attributes'be they access to physical resources, agricultural policies, or cultural practices'that are most significant in defining vulnerability and adaptive capacity. The comparison of these attributes across farm systems and, indeed, across countries, will allow us to build a grounded theory of the critical factors that must be considered in agricultural vulnerability assessment, in order to enhance agricultural producers adaptive capacity through more focalized policies. |
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| (Non) Voluntarism in the Energy Production Industry |
| Author: Welch, Eric
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| Co-Author(s): Akira Hibiki |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Univeristy of Illinois at Chicago |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: docs/Welch.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| Although recent research indicates that ISO 14001 has some effect on pollution reduction in the United States (Rossi, 2001; Andrews, 2003), in depth assessment of ISO 14001's effect on carbon dioxide reduction has not been conducted systematically. This paper examines the effect of ISO adoption on the largest producers of carbon dioxide in the world, electricity generators in the US and Japan. We analyze all energy producing facilities (ISO and non ISO) that burn coal, oil or natural gas, with the assumption that the ISO certification process would be able to identify carbon dioxide production as a significant environmental emission to be reduced. We expect that the two primary mechanisms by which electricity generators can reduce CO2 is through fuel switching or technological change.
Due to selection bias of ISO 14001 adoption, we employ a previously developed two-stage method to first predict ISO 14001 adoption and then to assess the effect of adoption on reductions (Hartman, 1988; Khana and Damon, 1998; Welch, et al., 2001). The first stage predicts ISO 14001 adoption using logistic regression and a number of facility-specific explanatory variables taken from the literature. The second stage applies the predicted values in a fixed effects regression model in which the dependent variable is CO2 emission rate (calculated as tons from energy consumption divided by electricity generation). Other explanatory variables include fuel use, pollution abatement and energy production investment, regulation and fuel price.
Results should provide evidence regarding the contribution that the global voluntary ISO 14001 regime has on carbon dioxide production. This research furthers ongoing research by the two authors.
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| The Canadian National Drought Study |
| Author: Wheaton, Elaine
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| Co-Author(s): Phil Adkins |
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| Institutional Affiliation: :Saskatchewan Research Council and Adjunct Professor, University of Saskatchewan |
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| Panel Title: Biophysical and Socioeconomic Aspects of the 2001 and 2002 Droughts in Canada |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| The Canadian National Drought Study (CNDS) is the first comprehensive study to assess the physical, biological and socio-economic aspects of drought across the nation. This project surpasses elements of previous drought investigations in Canada and perhaps North America, in that they tended to be regional or provincial projects, or they were biased towards one economic sector. Considering the complexity of drought whose definition is still elusive, this study provided a forum for evaluating past experiences and how best those communities, and water sensitive sectors of the economy such as agriculture, forestry, energy and transportation can prepare for the future. This paper provides the overview to the national drought study by examining project objectives and outcomes in five areas: climatological aspects of drought during its onset, during and after a drought; large-area atmospheric and oceanic drivers of drought; biophysical impacts, economic impacts; and adaptation options (planned and reactive types). Suggestions to resolve the outstanding problems in drought analyses (e.g. drought definitions, predicting drought, and drought impacts and adaptation assessment) will be addressed in specific papers of this session. Results of this work have direct applications in the design and implementation of the Drought Risk Management Plans currently being formulated or implemented in some Canadian provinces as well as contributing towards the Agricultural Policy Framework themes of risk reduction and environment. |
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| Neoliberal Water Reforms and Small-Scale Producers in Northern Mexico: Challenges and Opportunities |
| Author: Wilder, Margarete
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| Institutional Affiliation: Assistant Research Social Scientist, Latin American Studies/Geography, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona. |
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| Panel Title: Neoliberal Transitions in the Water Sector: Regional Implications |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Water policy has been dramatically restructured in Mexico since 1992, and the water research community is just beginning to understand fully the intersection between water restructuring and intensified water demand. The northern Mexican state of Sonora offers an ideal laboratory to assess how water modernization strategies such as decentralization and privatization are affecting Mexico's largest water demand sector, agricultural producers. Neoliberal reforms are reshaping water use and control in the communal farming (ejidatario) sector of poor, small farmers. Water reforms have intersected both spatially and temporally with a raft of agricultural and economic reforms to create new challenges and opportunities for producers. This paper analyzes how institutional changes such as decentralization of water management and market-oriented reforms such as privatization, pricing and formal water markets have intensified water demand at the same time as prolonged drought conditions have required massive changes in access to water. Despite the challenges, new water management structures such as river basin commissions and user-managed irrigation districts carry the potential for better utilization of climate information in agricultural planning. |
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| Reducing Vulnerability of Coastal Communities to Global Environmental Change |
| Author: Woodrow, Maureen
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| Co-Author(s): Mike Brklacich |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Global Environmental Change and Human Security Project,
Carleton University,
Ottawa, Canada |
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| Panel Title: Global Environmental Change and Coastal Areas: A Microcosm of Coupled Human-Environment Systems |
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| Paper Link: docs/Woodrow.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| The Global Environmental Change and Human Security project (GECHS) strives to understand why some regions and communities are more vulnerable to GEC than others as well as assessing alternative strategies for reducing social vulnerability to GEC. Human security refers to having the capacity and freedom to respond to stresses, including environmental stresses stemming from GEC. It is in this context that enhancing human security is seen as an essential element in reducing social vulnerability to GEC. This paper employs a case study approach to illustrate prospects for enhancing human security as a means to recover from severe environmental stress. It reports on recent work in the Change Islands off the northeast coast of Canada. In the early 1990s, relatively high levels of social and economic vulnerability characterized the community and the collapse of the North Atlantic cod fishery devastated the local economy and contributed to record out-migration levels. Efforts to restore human security in the Change Islands were based on developing solutions which involved building trust with the local community, re-establishing local identity, developing locally viable industries, establishing local and international markets for new commodities, and re-investing in the community. Lessons learned from the Change Islands case study provide a basis for developing guidelines to reduce social and economic vulnerabilities stemming from environmental degradation and thereby restore human security at the community level. |
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| Effects of LUCC Resulted from 'Table Field'Fish Pound' Land Use Pattern in the Yellow River Delta of China |
| Author: Xu, Xuegong
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| Co-Author(s): Yanhua Liu, Yu He, Huiping Lin, Huifang Peng |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Department of Resources and Environmental Geosciences, Peking University |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: docs/Xu.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| Land use and Land cover changes (LUCC) is the most interfacial issue between physical and human processes, and it embodies the human-earth relation. With the deeper study on LUCC, not only pay attention to the dynamic inspection and driving force analysis, but also focus on the effects of the changes, and farther study on the relation between LUCC and global environmental change, regional sustainable development and local eco-improvement as well as their mechanism linking macro, middle and micro scales.
Through a case study of the 'Table field'Fish pound' land use reconstruction in the Yellow River Delta of China, this article discusses the LUCC and its effects.
(1) 'Table field-Fish pound' is an effective land use structure and eco-agricultural pattern to change low-lying saline land and fragile eco-environment. It can conquer the main restrictive factors and realize high output and good effects, so it is adapted to large-area development in the Yellow River Delta.
(2) Large-area development of the 'Table field'Fish pound' land use pattern has led to regional land use/land cover changes and series of eco-environmental, economic and social effects, and has resulted in regulation and optimization in the structure of production. Other changes of land use pattern at regional scale will also bring chain impacts in eco-environment, economy and producing structure.
(3) By human initiatives, LUCC study should advance sustainable land use, improvement in eco-environment, regulation and optimization in regional structure of production, and economic sustainable development.
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| Infrastructure to Support the Sustainability Monitoring |
| Author: Yarnal, Brent
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| Institutional Affiliation: Center for Integrated Regional Assessment, Penn State Univesrity |
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| Panel Title: How to Improve the Empirical Base for Integrated Global Change Research? |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| This paper presents a vision of the infrastructure needed to support the Sustainability Geoscope. It also describes how the HERO project is building that infrastructure.
To develop sustainable communities and a sustainable Earth, scientists must monitor local human-environment interactions. Today's local monitoring efforts are disjointed, but the Sustainability Geoscope provides an opportunity to promote a coordinated monitoring effort. To monitor local sustainability, scientists and stakeholders need three important infrastructure components. First is research protocols'guidelines that specify how scientists should apply a methodology or suite of methodologies to a particular problem. Such protocols should be flexible, dynamic, and standardized. They should balance data (e.g., quantitative versus qualitative), models (e.g., deterministic versus stochastic), and scope (e.g., multiple spatial and temporal scales). The tension among the competing demands of flexibility, dynamism, standardization, and balance make developing research protocols a non-trivial task.
The second component promotes communication among researchers. Scientists who monitor sustainability must share their data, methods, and ideas. A collaboratory'a Web-based environment aimed at fostering remote collaboration'uses the Web to link scientists. The concept of the collaboratory goes beyond email and instant messaging to include Web-based video conferencing, electronic Delphi tools, shared notebooks and databases, interactive maps and graphs, and more.
The third component is a network of scientists to adopt research protocols and collaboratories. Local-area research sites exist worldwide. They function independently, collecting unique data in unique ways, thus making cross-site comparison impossible. Scientists at these sites often are unaware of similar efforts. It is crucial, therefore, to develop an international network of researchers to have a consistent, verifiable, and comparable record of local sustainability over time and space.
The goal of the Human-Environment Regional Observatory project is to develop the infrastructure described above. HERO has four strategies to reach that goal. First, it is developing research protocols for collecting human-environment data. Second, it is building a collaboratory that will help distant investigators share data, analyses, and thoughts. Third, it is testing these ideas by applying the protocols and collaboratory at proof-of-concept research sites. Fourth, it is organizing a network of researchers investigating local human-environment interactions.
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| Identifying Natural Disaster Hazard Hotspots: Global, Multi-Hazard Risk Maps |
| Author: Yetman, Gregory
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| Institutional Affiliation: CIESIN, Columbia University |
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| Panel Title: Assessment of High-Risk Natural Disaster Hotspots |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Global change is a significant factor in the vulnerability of regions to natural hazards. Climatic and land cover changes can influence susceptibility to drought or flood while at the same time impacting on the capacity of natural systems to absorb impacts. To better understand the implications of global change for natural hazard mitigation, areas at risk to natural hazards must first be identified.
Global natural hazard assessments are often completed at the national level or sub-nationally for single hazards. However, hazards are not independent: for example, cyclones and floods are often related, as are earthquakes and volcanoes. National level assessments mask areas at risk from multiple hazards'natural disaster hotspots'both within and across national borders. Using global, sub-national scale data on natural hazards and elements exposed to these hazards, this study produced detailed global maps of risk from single and multiple hazards. Based on these maps, reports of region and country exposure were generated. Hazards assessed include drought, floods, cyclones, earthquakes, and volcanoes. Elements at risk assessed sub-nationally included in the assessment are population, infrastructure (roads, rail, and dams), agricultural production, and estimates of income.
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| Globalisation and Localisation: Impacts on Institutional Dimension of Environmental Policy East Asia |
| Author: Yohei, Harashima
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| Institutional Affiliation: Institute for Global Environmental Strategies/ Takushoku University |
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| Panel Title: Transition in Environmental Governance in Asia: Policy Implications at Local and Global Levels |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Global environmental institutions strongly link to national/local ones. Therefore, when addressing global environmental change, it is important to pay attention to environmental policies both at the global and national/local levels.
This paper reviews environmental policy development in East Asia from 1950s to 1990s, examines new trends of environmental problems after the late 1990s, and finally identifies impacts of globalisation and localisation on institutional dimension of environmental policy focusing on China, Korea, Japan, and Thailand.
In terms of economic growth in East Asia, Korea caught up with Japan, and Thailand has been catching up, followed by China. In parallel with such rapid economic expansion, these countries initiated policy responses to environmental problems successively. Environmental policy development in Korea, Thailand, and China has been similar to that of Japan, except for a certain time lags. However, when compared to Japan, the tempo of environmental policy development in other countries is faster than that of their economic growth. Major differences identified in these processes were due to: the role of local government, information disclosure, influence of international pressure, latecomer status, market mechanisms, and environmental issues in the policy agenda.
The 1997 Asian economic crisis threw cold water on growing environmental awareness in East Asia. At the same time, significant problems such as the Yangtse River flood in China and trans-boundary air pollution (haze) arising from forest fires in Indonesia occurred. New environmental problems such as solid waste, vehicle pollution, and water resources have been emerging on the policy agenda. Regional implementation of international initiatives on environmental problems such as climate change and biodiversity has been rapidly increasing since the mid 1990s.
This led to significant transformations: increase in active civil actions on environment and development, strengthened local governments' initiatives, and creation of sub-regional cooperation. It implies that state power in East Asia has decreased and marking the late 1990s as a turning point. The conventional "catching-up style" of environmental policy development in East Asia is coming to an end. This paper argues a new model of policy development and future direction of environmental strategies to improve policy effectiveness in Asia.
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| Habitat Destruction, Economic Land-Use and Democratic Mediation |
| Author: Ziegler, Rafael
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| Institutional Affiliation: McGill University:
Department of Philosophy
McGill School of Environment |
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Habitat destruction is a principal cause of the global biodiversity decline. Ecosystems are harvested, exploited and modified for economic purposes of land use. This paper examines the role of market players in habitat destruction with respect to the situation in Québec. Economic efficiency and economic growth are often given as a rationale for economic land use. But what is the standing of this rationale in the space of public reason of a democratic society? This paper analyzes this question and discusses answers via an analysis of the situation in Québec. Once the economic interests in land use are taken into account, in the local and global economic context, the discussion will turn to how these market interests are best mediated in the democratic process. Given the problem of habitat destruction through economic land use and the resulting biodiversity decline, democratic institutions and possibilities of an ecologically and socially sound mediation of interests will be evaluated both with respect to their effectiveness and their underlying normative structure.
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| Help or Hinder?: The Role of Seasonal Forecast Information in Adapting to Climate Variability Among Smallholder Farmers in South Africa |
| Author: Ziervogel, Gina
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| Institutional Affiliation: University of Cape Town adn Stockholm Environmental Institute |
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| Panel Title: Rural Livelihoods and Climate Variability: Insights for Adaptation to Longer Term Change |
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| Paper Link: No paper yet available |
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| Abstract |
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| Increased climate variability and climate change severely impacts vulnerable groups. The ability to adapt to this variability is a priority, particularly among rural groups that have a high dependence on natural resources. It is accepted than increased sources and types of information can help make better-informed decisions. The increasingly widespread availability of seasonal climate information is one type of information about climate variability. Yet, how well suited to smallholder farmers' needs is this information at present? Is the forecast robust enough at the scale that these vulnerable groups desire or is other information, such as market demand and governmental support more valuable? If so, should efforts to facilitate improved adaptation to climate variability among rural groups focus on improving the forecast product and its delivery or rather focus on national and district institutional change that reflect an integration of policies and measures that support adaptation to increased climate variability? These questions are addressed by highlighting the case of smallholder farmers in Limpopo province, South Africa, that survive at the nexus of subsistence and market-based existences. Surveys and participatory research provide insight into the adaptive strategy sets that are used to manage climatic variability. The role of climate information, particularly seasonal forecasts and the role of other types of information, are assessed by examining their role in contributing to different adaptive strategy sets in order to suggest when, where and how the forecast helps or hinders adaptation. Results suggest that future forecast applications work needs to focus more closely at integrating seasonal forecast information with other sources of information in order to provide a more robust approach to facilitating adaptation. |
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| Bulgarian environmental status in the transition period to the market economy |
| Author: Zlatunova, Daniela
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| Co-Author(s): Peter Slaveikov |
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| Institutional Affiliation: Sofia University “ St. Kliment Ohridski”
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| Panel Title: Poster Session |
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| Paper Link: docs/zlatunova.pdf |
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| Abstract |
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| The aim of this article is to define the character of interaction between Bulgarian society and nature in the framework of planned and centralized economy, based on the environmental and economic information for 1990 - 1991. On this base character and scope of the coming environment and economic changes and the connection between them in transition circumstances towards the liberal market economy for the period 1992 - 2000 are set.
The status of the environment as a whole, and the status of each natural component is defined with complex indexes which are relevant to natural resources which are in use; separation of different types of waste; air condition; underground and surface water condition, stage of transformation of the territory, etc.
The used Eco-industrial indexes / the industrial share in GDP; the industrial share in atmosphere pollution of the country; the share of industrial polluting production of the whole industrial production of the country; the water use of the GDP; the waste on a unit of measure GDP; the structural - branch correlation / let us give an account of the economical activities' effect on the environment.
The irrational specialization of Bulgaria in nature destroying industries with an export purpose and the following ecological problems is assessed through geo - economical, geo-ecological, geo- demographic indexes.
An environmental evaluation by administrative units has been done also, because of significant spatial differentiation, due to different natural and social - economical factors for economy development.
With the help of the geographical analysis and the results about environmental status an experiment for defining regional specific of the global problems is done, their importance for the development of the Bulgarian society, and also the possibilities for their solving. |
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