Project

Baseline climatology

Scenario data

Underlying GHG emissions scenarios

Methods for developing regional scenarios from GCM outputs

References

Variables/ phenomena

time horizon

temporal  resolution

spatial resolution

Empirical downscaling

Dynamic downscaling (Regional Climate Modelling) –RCM(s)

Driving GCM experiments

AF04

                  

 

AF07

1960~1991

Full suite of model outputs, e.g. temperature, precipitation, humidity,…

2070~2100

6-hourly

Approx. 60km

SRES A2, B2

Using GCM control runs to develop empirical relationship for downscaling GCM simulations for future time periods

1.  MM5;

2.  PRECIS

1.  CSIRO9 A2 & B2;

2.  ECHAM4 A2 & B2;

3.  HadAM3 A2 and B2
  1. Papers on MM5;
  2. MM5 tutorial

AF14

This project uses historic climate records to outline past and current climate variability, mainly drought episodes and periods of erratic rainfall.  Therefore, there is no plan to formally develop climate scenario.  Rather, some illustrative scenarios (as those prepared for Sudan’s First National Communications) would be discussed.

  

AF20

                    

AF23

                    

AF38

1901~1998

TBD

SRES scenarios of which DDC holds GCM experiments

1.  Statistical downscaling (SDSM);

2.  MAGICC/SCENGEN

1.  CRU datasets;

2.  IPCC TGCIA guideline document on scenario construction and application

AF42

                    

AF47

                    

AF90

1961~1990

drought

      

SRES

MAGICC/SCENGEN

  

HadCM3

  

AF91

1961~1990

1.  Rainfall;

2.  Tmax;

3.  Tmin

Present ~ 2100

daily

50km2

SRES

Planned to do both but methods/models to be decided

    

AF92

1971~2000

1.  surface air temperature;

2.  rainfall;

3.  number of rainy days;

4.  onset and cessation of rainfall;

5.  soil temperature;

6.  soil radiation;

7.  humidity;

8.  evapotranspiration

  

monthly

      

Depending on another AIACC team to provide RCM simulation results

  

Jones, R.N. (2001).  An Environmental Risk Assessment/Management Framework for Climate Change Impact Assessments.  Natural Hazards, 23: 197-230.

AS06

1961~1990

1.  Tmean, Tmax, Tmin;

2.  Precipitation;

3.  Wind speed;

4.   soil moisture;

5.   snow depth;

6.   specific humidity;

7.   vapour pressure

2020s, 2050s, 2080s

Daily and monthly

0.5o X 0.5o  

SRES

A2 & B2
  1. GRADS;
  2. Statistical downscaling (SDSM);

PRECIS

HadCM3, CGCM2, ECHAM4, GFDL R15a, CSIRO mk2 forced by SRES A2 & B2 emissions scenarios

  

AS07

                    

AS12

1.   1961~1990

2.   1971~2000

1.   temperature;

2.   precipitation

  

Daily (rainfall)

Monthly (temperature)

50 km2

TBD

SDSM

N/A

TBD

  

AS21

1961~1990

    

Daily

Monthly

  

SRES
  1. MAGICC/SCENGEN;
  2. Kriging;
  3. Weather generator

N/A

CSIRO

Hulme, M., Wigley, T.M.L., Barrow, E.M., Raper, S.C.B., Cantella, A., Smith, S., and Chipanshi, A. 2000. Using climate scenario generator in vulnerability and adaptation Assessments: MAGICC and SCENGEN Version 2.4. Workbook. National Communication Support Program. Climate Research Unit, Norwich, UK, 68pp

AS25

1961~1990

1.   temperature;

2.   precipitation

2000, 2030, 2050, 2100

Monthly

0.5o X 0.5o

SRES

Statistical downscaling (SDSM)

Ncc/RegCM2

(nested with NCCT63L16/T63L30; and HadCM2)

DDC SRES forced GCM experiments

1.   Ding Yihui, Zhang Jing and Zhao Zongci, 1998, Part: Land-surface processes model and it coupled simulation experiment with regional climate model . Ibid, 56, 385-400.

2.   Xu, Y. 2002. A Study of Numerical simulation of Impact of Human Activities on Climate Change. PhD Thesis, Research Academy of Meteorology Science, Beijing, China

LA06

                    

LA26

1960~2000

1.   Long-term average sea level rise at 2.5o X 2.5o resolution;

2.   Monthly sea level pressure at 2.5o X 2.5o resolution;

3.   Daily storm intensity and frequency at both 2.5o X 2.5o and 0.5o X 0.5o resolution;

4.   Monthly precipitation at 2.5o X 2.5o resolution;

All these fields are with a time horizon of present ~ 2100.

SRES A2

N/A
  1. ETA;
  2. PRECIS

HadCM3, CSIRO-mk2, ECHAM4/OPYC3, GFDL-R30, NCAR-PCM, CCCma

1.   Block, T., 1994: The new NMC mesoescale Eta model: description and forecast examples. Wea. Forecasting, 9, 265-278

2.   Mesinger, F et al: 1988:The step mountain coordinate model description and performance for cases of alpine lee cyclogenesis and for a case of an Appalachian redevelopment. Mon. Wea. Rev,. 116, 1493-1518

3.   Rogers , et al 1996: changes to operational early Eta analysis/forecast at the National Center for Environment prediction. Wea. Forecasting, 11, 391-413.

LA27

1970~2000

1.   Tmax, Tmin;

2.   Solar radiation;

3.   precipitation

  

Daily and monthly

  

SRES

Statistical downscaling

(SAS software)

N/A

Three out of the GCMs for which DDC holds SRES forced experiments

  

LA32

1961~1990;

1971~2000 (for hydroclimatic variables)

1.   sea level;

2.   rainfall;

3.   temperature;

4.   storm intensity and frequency;

Present ~

1.   2030;

2.   2050

Monthly

0.5o X 0.5o

SRES A2
  1. SCENGEN;
  2. Statistical downscaling (SDSM);

ETA

SRES A2 forced runs of HadCM3, CSIRO-mk2, NCAR-PCM, CGCM2, ECHAM4.IPYC3 and GFDL-R30

1.   Hulme M, T Jiang, TML Wigley (1995) SCENGEN, a Climate Change Scenario Generator. User Manual. Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich, U.K.

2.   Wilby R, CW Dawson (2001) SDSM downscalling statistical software Version 2.2. User Manual. Department of Geography, King´s College London, U.K.

SIS06

1961~1990

1.   Tmax, Tmin;

2.   Rainfall

Present ~

1.   2050s;

2.   2100 (?)

1.   Daily;

2.   Monthly;

3.   Seasonal;

4.   Annual

Site-specific

SRES
  1. Statistical downscaling (SDSM);
  2. Weather generator (LARS-WG)

N/A

CCCma,

HadCM3

Technical basis and application of the SDSM

1.   Conway, D., Wilby, R.L., and Jones, P.D. 1996. Precipitation and air flow indices over the British Isles. Climate Research,7, 169-183.

2.   NCEP re-analysis and Hadley Centre Experiments. Hadley Centre 1998, Climate Change and its impacts: Some highlights from the ongoing UK research Programme, UK Met Office Publication 12pp.

Downscaling (general)

3.   Wilby, R.L., and Wigley, T.M.L., 1997. Downscaling general circulation model output: a review of methods and limitations. Progress in Physical Geography, 21, 530-548.

Statistical Downscaling methods

4.   Burger, G.,1996. Expanded downscaling for generating, local weather scenarios. Climate Research , 7, 111-128.

Weather Generator

5.   Semenov, M.A., and Barrow, E.M. 1997. Use of a stochastic weather generator in the development of climate Change scenarios. Climate Change , 35, 397-414.

SIS09

1971~2000

1.   Rainfall;

2.   Sea level

Present ~2100

1. Daily (rainfall)

2. annual/decadal (sea level)

1.   5 metre;

2.   Site-specific

SRES

Weather generator

N/A

    

SIS90