IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report LR Cross-Section Box.2, Figure 1 (a): Schematic of the AR6 framework for assessing future greenhouse gas emissions, climate change, risks, impacts and mitigation
The integrated framework encompasses socio-economic development and policy, emissions pathways and global surface temperature responses to the five scenarios considered by WGI (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) and eight global mean temperature change categorisations (C1–C8) assessed by WGIII, and the WGII risk assessment. The dashed arrow indicates that the influence from impacts/risks to socio-economic changes is not yet considered in the scenarios assessed in the AR6. Emissions include GHGs, aerosols, and ozone precursors. CO2 emissions are shown as an example on the left. The assessed global surface temperature changes across the 21st century relative to 1850-1900 for the five GHG emissions scenarios are shown as an example in the centre. Very likely ranges are shown for SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0. Projected temperature outcomes at 2100 relative to 1850-1900 are shown for C1 to C8 categories with median (line) and the combined very likely range across scenarios (bar). On the right, future risks due to increasing warming are represented by an example ‘burning ember’ figure (see 3.1.2 for the definition of RFC1).
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Data download: IPCC AR6 SYR LR Cross-Section Box.2, Figure 1(a) (Excel Workbook, 39 KB)
Data Citation:
IPCC, 2024. IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report LR Cross-Section Box.2, Figure 1 (a): Schematic of the AR6 framework for assessing future greenhouse gas emissions, climate change, risks, impacts and mitigation. Palisades, New York: NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). https://doi.org/10.7927/baxv-nj53. Accessed DAY MONTH YEAR
Citation of IPCC Report:
IPCC, 2023: Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 184 pp. https://doi.org/10.59327/IPCC/AR6-9789291691647.