IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report LR Figure 2.5 (a): Global GHG emissions of modelled pathways


This panel shows global GHG emissions over 2015–2050 for four types of assessed modelled global pathways:


  • Trend from implemented policies: Pathways with projected near-term GHG emissions in line with policies implemented until the end of 2020 and extended with comparable ambition levels beyond 2030 (29 scenarios across categories C5–C7, WGIII Table SPM.2);
  • Limit to 2°C (>67%) or return warming to 1.5°C (>50%) after a high overshoot, NDCs until 2030: Pathways with GHG emissions until 2030 associated with the implementation of NDCs announced prior to COP26, followed by accelerated emissions reductions likely to limit warming to 2°C (C3b, WGIII Table SPM.2) or to return warming to 1.5°C with a probability of 50% or greater after high overshoot (subset of 42 scenarios from C2, WGIII Table SPM.2).
  • Limit to 2°C (>67%) with immediate action: Pathways that limit warming to 2°C (>67%) with immediate action after 2020 (C3a, WGIII Table SPM.2).
  • Limit to 1.5°C (>50%) with no or limited overshoot: Pathways limiting warming to 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot (C1, WGIII Table SPM.2 C1).

All these pathways assume immediate action after 2020. Past GHG emissions for 2010–2015 used to project global warming outcomes of the modelled pathways are shown by a black line.

Global GHG emissions of modelled pathways

Figure AR6 LR Figure 2.5 (a) (left side): Global GHG emissions of modelled pathways


Data download: IPCC AR6 SYR LR Figure 2.5 (a) (Excel Workbook, ~13 KB)


Data Citation:
IPCC, 2024. IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report LR Figure 2.5 (a): Global GHG emissions of modelled pathways. Palisades, New York: NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). https://doi.org/10.7927/gadr-8q65. Accessed DAY MONTH YEAR


Citation of IPCC Report:
IPCC, 2023: Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 184 pp. https://doi.org/10.59327/IPCC/AR6-9789291691647.


IPCC, 2022: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [P.R. Shukla, J. Skea, R. Slade, A. Al Khourdajie, R. van Diemen, D. McCollum, M. Pathak, S. Some, P. Vyas, R. Fradera, M. Belkacemi, A. Hasija, G. Lisboa, S. Luz, J. Malley, (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157926.001.