IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report LR Figure 3.4 (a): Sea level rise: observations and projections 2020-2100, 2150, 2300 (relative to 1900)

Global mean sea level change in metres relative to 1900. The historical changes (black) are observed by tide gauges before 1992 and altimeters afterwards. The future changes to 2100 and for 2150 (coloured lines and shading) are assessed consistently with observational constraints based on emulation of CMIP, ice-sheet, and glacier models, and median values and likely ranges are shown for the considered scenarios. Relative to 1995–2014, the likely global mean sea level rise by 2050 is between 0.15–0.23 m in the very low GHG emissions scenario (SSP1-1.9) and 0.20– 0.29 m in the very high GHG emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5); by 2100 between 0.28–0.55 m under SSP1-1.9 and 0.63– 1.01 m under SSP5-8.5; and by 2150 between 0.37–0.86 m under SSP1-1.9 and 0.98–1.88 m under SSP5-8.5 (medium confidence). Changes relative to 1900 are calculated by adding 0.158 m (observed global mean sea level rise from 1900 to 1995–2014) to simulated changes relative to 1995–2014. The future changes to 2300 (bars) are based on literature assessment, representing the 17th–83rd percentile range for SSP1-2.6 (0.3–3.1 m) and SSP5-8.5 (1.7–6.8 m). Red dashed lines: Low-likelihood, high-impact storyline, including ice sheet instability processes. These indicate the potential impact of deeply uncertain processes, and show the 83rd percentile of SSP5-8.5 projections that include low-likelihood, high impact processes that cannot be ruled out; because of low confidence in projections of these processes, this is not part of a likely range.

Data download: IPCC AR6 SYR LR Figure 3.4(a) (Zip folder, 30 KB)

Data Citation:
IPCC, 2024. IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report LR Figure 3.4 (a): Sea level rise: observations and projections 2020-2100, 2150, 2300 (relative to 1900). Palisades, New York: NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). https://doi.org/10.7927/adkr-bn17. Accessed DAY MONTH YEAR

Citation of IPCC Report:
IPCC, 2023: Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 184 pp. https://doi.org/10.59327/IPCC/AR6-9789291691647.