IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report LR Figure 3.5 (b): Cumulative CO2 emissions and warming until 2050


This figure displays the relationship between cumulative CO2 emissions and the increase in global surface temperature. Historical data (thin black line) shows historical CO2 emissions versus observed global surface temperature increase relative to the period 1850–1900. The grey range with its central line shows a corresponding estimate of the human-caused share of historical warming. Coloured areas show the assessed very likely range of global surface temperature projections, and thick coloured central lines show the median estimate as a function of cumulative CO2 emissions for the selected scenarios SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5. Projections until 2050 use the cumulative CO2 emissions of each respective scenario, and the projected global warming includes the contribution from all anthropogenic forcers


3.5 (b): Cumulative CO2 emissions and warming until 2050

Figure AR6 LR Figure 3.5 (b): Cumulative CO2 emissions and warming until 2050


Data download: IPCC AR6 SYR LR Figure 3.5 (b) (Excel Workbook, ~ 39.KB)


Data Citation:
IPCC, 2025. IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report LR Figure 3.5 (b): Cumulative CO2 emissions and warming until 2050. Palisades, New York: NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). https://doi.org/10.7927/c2rc-7j21. Accessed DAY MONTH YEAR.


Citation of IPCC Report:
IPCC, 2023: Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 184 pp. https://doi.org/10.59327/IPCC/AR6-9789291691647.


IPCC, 2021: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896