Ecological Impacts

Ecosystem responses to changed climate and accompanying changes in trace-gas concentrations (particularly CO2) can be of two kinds. Existing plants can change their functioning, and the spatial distribution of species can shift. Ecological research is under way now to increase understanding of both these phenomena.

A traditional representation of the relationship between ecosystem types and climatic zones is that of Holdridge Zones, which express the broadly observed empirical correlation of certain vegetation types with certain conditions of temperature and precipitation. This zone system is now widely regarded as inadequate, both because it lacks a process-based explanation and because it is static.

Two recent projects seek physiological, process-based explanations of the problem of vegetation types and climate. Melillo et al. (1993) address the question of how changed climate and CO2 concentration will change the productivity and nutrient cycling of specific types of plants, without examining shifts in their spatial distribution. Prentice et al. (1992) use physiological models to predict which plant types will occur and which will be dominant under particular climatic conditions. Their model predicts the distribution of plant types under present climate and produces better agreement with the observed distribution than do traditional methods. Their method is clearly also applicable to predicting the movement of ecosystem types under climate change, but such analysis has not yet been presented.

Teams from various climate integrated assessment projects are working with both these approaches to attempt to represent climate change effects on unmanaged ecosystems, but this work is at an early stage. This is clearly one of the most difficult components of climate integrated assessment and one that will require further advances in disciplinary knowledge for a thorough understanding.

The next section is Socioeconomic Impacts.

[SEDAC] [PREVIOUS] [NEXT] [TOP]

Sources

Parson, E.A. and K. Fisher-Vanden, Searching for Integrated Assessment: A Preliminary Investigation of Methods, Models, and Projects in the Integrated Assessment of Global Climatic Change. Consortium for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN). University Center, Mich. 1995.

Suggested Citation

Consortium for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN). 1995. Thematic Guide to Integrated Assessment Modeling of Climate Change [online]. University Center, Mich.
CIESIN URL: http://sedac.ciesin.org/mva/iamcc.tg/TGHP.html

Acknowledgement

This work, including access to the data and technical assistance, is provided by CIESIN, with funding from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under Contract NAS5-32632 for the Development and Operation of the Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC).

Data Errors, Corrections and Disclaimer
CIESIN follows procedures designed to ensure that data disseminated via CIESIN Web site are of reasonable quality. If, despite these procedures, users encounter apparent errors in CIESIN data, they should contact CIESIN User Services at 517/797-2727 or via Internet e-mail at CIESIN.Info@ciesin.org. CIESIN will notify the original data provider of these apparent errors or misstatements and will attempt to correct them in the most efficient manner possible. Neither CIESIN nor NASA verifies or guarantees the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of the data provided.

For more information contact CIESIN User Services: e-mail: CIESIN.Info@ciesin.org; Tel: 1-517-797-2727.

Configuration control information:
TGsec3-2-6.htmlpp Version 1.9. Last updated 05/13 1996.