CETA

CETA is a model developed at the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), which contains a single world region. The model draws on a major energy-economic model, Global 2100, a previous EPRI project. Global 2100 modeled five world regions with moderately detailed energy sectors and a single representative consumer-producer in each (Manne and Richels 1992). CETA collapses the Global 2100 world into one region and adds simple illustrative representations of the carbon cycle, global-average temperature change, and damages due to warming. In CETA, the world's single consumer-producer now optimizes present value utility of consumption net of loss from climate change. Illustrative damage functions are defined that express climate-change damage at any time as an increasing function of the realized change in global-average temperature. These functions are calibrated to be consistent with Nordhaus' upper-bound estimate of 2 percent GNP loss from an equilibrium 3-degree Celsius temperature change, and the implications of different forms of damage function passing through this point (linear, quadratic, etc.) for the optimal emissions trajectory are explored. CETA has also been used for separate analyses of the effect of making damage depend on the rate of temperature rise and of varying parameter values. More recent analyses with the model redivide the world into two regions and consider the effect of different levels of cooperation on optimal emission paths (Peck and Teisberg 1992a, 1992b, and 1993), and introduce uncertainty and the value of information Peck and Teisberg 1994, 1995).

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Sources

Parson, E.A. and K. Fisher-Vanden, Searching for Integrated Assessment: A Preliminary Investigation of Methods, Models, and Projects in the Integrated Assessment of Global Climatic Change. Consortium for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN). University Center, Mich. 1995.

Suggested Citation

Consortium for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN). 1995. Thematic Guide to Integrated Assessment Modeling of Climate Change [online]. University Center, Mich.
CIESIN URL: http://sedac.ciesin.org/mva/iamcc.tg/TGHP.html

Acknowledgement

This work, including access to the data and technical assistance, is provided by CIESIN, with funding from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under Contract NAS5-32632 for the Development and Operation of the Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC).

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