SCENARIO PROCESS FOR AR5

PREPARATORY PHASE (2006-2010)

The main activities of the preparatory phase included developing the new process, selecting the RCPs, and preparing the RCP data for use by climate modeling teams.

Planning the new process
The new process was developed through an initial meeting held at the Aspen Global Change Research Institute in 2006, a session at the Energy Modeling Forum Climate Change Impacts/Integrated Assessment workshop in 2007, and an IPCC expert meeting held in Noordwijkerhout, The Netherlands, in September 2007.

RCP selection process
The RCPs were selected through an multi-step process involving several steps using an agreed set of selection criteria and an open review by modeling teams as described in the Noordiwjkerhout Report. The selection process relied on previous assessment of the literature conducted by IPCC Working Group III during development of the Fourth Assessment Report and considered user requirements that were identified in previous IPCC workshops and interactions with user communities (Washington 2005, Laxenburg 2005, Seville 2006). The final RCP selections were made on the basis of discussions at the IPCC expert meeting in September 2007, a subsequent open review of proposed selections involving many modeling teams and users, and the recommendation of an ad hoc committee convened to review alternatives for the lowest RCP (see http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/ENE/IAMC/docs/RCPP-Report.pdf ).

Data preparation
The Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) coordinated preparation of the RCP data in consultation with climate modeling groups. The specifications for this data preparation process are described in the so-called “handshake document”.

Current status
The preparatory phase is now complete. A description of the RCPs and information on where to access the RCP data can be found here.

Content last modified: 4 November 2019